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2015 Regional System Plan © ISO New England Inc. System Planning NOVEMBER 5, 2015

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Section 10Integration of Variable Energy Resources

Theintegrationoflargeamountsofvariableenergyresources,includingwindandphotovoltaicsposesnewchallengestotheelectricpowersystem.Toaddressthesechallenges,theISOhasbeenconductinganumberofstudies,gatheringoperationaldataandobservations,andparticipatinginotherprojectsassessingthedevelopmentandintegrationofvariableenergyresources.

Potential System Impacts on Fossil Fuel Generators of Integrating Wind and Solar 10.1Resources

TheUSDepartmentofEnergy'sNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)releasedthesecondphaseofastudyexaminingthepotentialimpactsofincreasingwindandsolarpowergenerationontheoperatorsofcoalandgasplantsintheWest(includingpartsofCanadaandMexico).290Thereportfoundthattoaccommodatehigheramountsofwindandsolarpowerontheelectricpowergrid,utilitieswillneedtorampupandrampdownconventionalgeneratorsmorefrequentlythanwithlesswindandsolaronthegrid.Thisreportassessedvariousscenariosofwindandsolarpenetrationandconcludedthatwithwindandsolarfacilitiessupplyingabout25%ofthepowerin2020,theprojectedcostsavingsofneedinglessfuelfaroutweighedthecostsassociatedwithincreasedramping.Inaddition,accordingtothisreport,overallemissionsofSO2andNOXwouldbereduceddespitetheimpactsofincreasedramping.

TheISOwillcontinuetotrackindustryresearchandmonitortheeffectsthatincreasedamountsofvariableenergyresourceshaveonsystemperformance,includingramping.TheISOwillidentifyregionalneedsandworkthroughthestakeholderprocesstodevelopregionalsolutionstoanyidentifiedissues.

Integration of Wind Resources 10.2

NewEnglandhastremendouspotentialfordevelopingwindresources.Theregionhasdevelopedapproximately850MW,andalmost4,100MWisintheinterconnectionqueue.Astheamountofwindgenerationgrows,operationalforecastsofthisvariableenergyresourcetakeonincreasingimportance.

Wind Forecasting and Dispatch 10.2.1

OnJanuary15,2014,theISObeganincorporatingwindforecastingintoISOprocesses,scheduling,anddispatchservices.(AsofMay2013,theISOhasofferedapreliminaryinformationalwindpowerforecast.)Thewindpowerforecastisexceedingexpectationsregardingaccuracy.InadditiontotheISO’suseofthewindforecast,windresourcescandownloadtheforecastofexpectedoutputfortheirindividualunits,whichcanhelpthembuildastrategyforbiddingintheDay‐AheadEnergyMarket.Aspartofphase1ofthisproject,theISOhasalsocreateddisplaysthatimproveoperators’situationalawarenessandisnowmaintaininghistoricalwinddataforfutureusebytheforecastserviceandinauditingandotheranalyses.TheISOisworkingtowardthefulleconomicdispatchofwindresources,aswellasautomatedpublishingoftheaggregatewindenergyforecastfortheregioninphase2ofthisproject.

290NREL,TheWesternWindandSolarIntegrationStudyPhase2,NREL/TP‐5500‐55588,technicalreport(DOE,September2013),http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/pdfs/55588.pdf.


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Strategic Transmission Analysis—Wind Integration Study 10.2.2

ISONewEnglandisconductingtransmissionsystemreliabilityassessmentstoidentifythenatureofthetransmissionsystemreinforcementsnecessarytointegratesignificantamountsofwindresourcesintothesystem.RSP14discussedhowmuchadditionalwindenergycouldbeintegratedintheStateofMainewithoutmajortransmissionsysteminvestment,particularlynewlines.RSP15updatestheRSP14transmissionanalysisinMainebymorefullyaccountingforthedynamicregionalsystembehavioranddiscussesthewindintegrationanalysisfortheStateofVermont.

BasecasepowerflowmodelsweredevelopedbyaddingrepresentativestationsforallwindresourcesintheISO’squeueatthetimeofthescopingofeachportionofthestudy.Severalloadconditionswereexamined,andallwindresourceswithintheareabeinginvestigatedwereincreasedfromzerountilathermallimitwasreachedfortransferoutoftheregion.Systemvoltageandstabilityperformancewerethentestedatthesethermallimitstodeterminewhetherthoseotherlimitsweremoreconstraining.Thestudiesidentifiedthelower‐costimprovementsthatincreasedthetransferlimitforaregion,suchasaddingreactivedevicesorseriescircuitbreakersorrebuildingashorttransmissionline.Thegeneratorsweremodeledwiththeassumptionofrobustlocalvoltagecontrolcapabilityatthegenerationsites.Additionalsystemimprovementswouldberequiredforinterconnectionswithoutadequatelocalvoltagecontrol.

Theassessmentexaminedthefollowingspecificregions:291

KeeneRoadregioninMaine

BangorregioninMaine

WymanregioninMaine

RumfordregioninMaine

NorthernregioninVermont

CentralregioninVermont

SouthernregioninVermont

Theassessmentsanalyzedthermal,voltage,andstabilitylimitsforbothlocaltransmissioninterfacesandbroaderregionalconstraintstomovingtheaggregatewindandotherresourcesfromthelocalregions.TheassessmentsalsoexaminedtheneedforimprovementstomeetNPCCbulkpowersystemrequirements.

10.2.2.1 Summary Results for the Maine Regional Constraint Analysis

SummaryresultsfortheMaineregionalconstraintanalysisshowthatadditionalwindresourceswoulddisplacetraditionalsynchronousgeneratortechnologyandthestabilityperformancebenefitsofthesetypesofmachines.292Adynamicreactivedeviceofupto500MVARcapabilitylocatedincentralMaine

291NotethattheAroostook,ME,regionisconsideredtoneedmajortransmissionlineconstruction.ISONewEngland,NorthernMaineSystemPerformance,PACpresentation(September21,2010),https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2010/sep212010/northern_maine.pdf.292StrategicTransmissionAnalysis:WindIntegrationStudy—Stage1—Maine,RegionalConstraints,PACpresentation(May21,2014),https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2014/may212014/a4_strategic_transmission_analysis_wind_power_update.pdf.


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wouldlikelybeneededtointegratenewwindresourceseffectively.Atthesametime,ensuringthatthesewindresourcesdirectlyaiddynamicvoltagecontrolcouldimprovetheoverallsystemperformanceduringbothnormalandcriticalextremecontingencies.

ThetestingoftheregionaltransmissioninterfacesinMaineidentifiedtheneedforadditionalsystemreinforcements.Thesereinforcementsincludetwo345kV25ohmthyristor‐controlledseries‐compensation(TCSC)devicesandupto480MVARof115kVshuntcapacitorsthroughoutMaine.293TheTCSCdevicesarenecessarytopreventsystemseparationandtheinterruptionoflargeamountsofresourcesfollowingseverecontingencyeventsinsouthernNewEngland.TheshuntcapacitorsarerequiredforvoltagesupportinMaine.

Theaboveimprovementsareinsufficienttobothimprovetheperformanceofthebulkpowersystemandincreaseregionaltransferlimits.Thestudysuggeststhatboththeserequirementscouldbemetbyaddingtransmissionupgrades,suchas1,000MVARofsynchronouscondensersinMaine,inadditiontothe500MVARdynamicreactivedevicepreviouslymentioned.ThealternativetoaddressingtheBPSperformancerequirementwiththesynchronouscondensersisthepossibilityofcontinuallyneedingwidespreadsubstationupgradesthroughoutsouthernNewEngland.

10.2.2.2 Summary Results for the Local Maine Regions

TheresultsforthefourlocalMaineregionsaresummarizedbelow.294

KeeneRoadRegion.Theabilitytoaccommodate229MW(nameplatecapability)ofwindcapacityinthisregionwasanalyzed.Thestudiedsystemwouldprobablynotexperiencethermalviolationsatthisgenerationlevel,butavoltagestabilityissuewouldoccuratlevelsofwindgenerationabovethesimulatedamountof144MW,andtheperformanceofthesystemcouldbeunacceptablydegradedduringextremecontingencyconditions.Majortransmissionconstructionwouldlikelybeneededtoaddresslocalconstraintstoadditionalgeneration.

BangorDowneastRegion.Thisareawasanalyzedforitsabilitytoaccommodate186MW(nameplatecapability)ofwindcapacity.The115kVloopinthisregionisvulnerabletothermaloverloadswhenacontingencyoccurs.Low115kVvoltagesalsowouldoccuratexportsaboveapproximately130MW,andtheperformanceofthesystemcouldbeunacceptablydegradedduringextremecontingencyconditions.

The186MWofexistingandproposedgenerationcouldbeintegratedwithafewrelativelysmalltransmissionupgrades.Systemperformanceishighlysensitivetothelocationofnewplantsandtheelectricaldistancefromthe115kVloop.Voltage/transientstabilityproblemsareanticipatedwithamountsofgenerationgreaterthanthe186MWstudied;majortransmissionconstructionwouldlikelybeneededtoaddressthesevoltage/stabilityconstraints.

WymanHydroRegion.Theabilitytointegrate418MW(nameplatecapability)ofwindcapacity,includingexistingresources,wasanalyzedforthisregion.The2015systemwouldprobablynotexperiencesignificantthermalviolationsduringthesummerandwinterbutlikelywouldexperiencethermalconstraintsduringspringandfallwhenhighhydroandwindconditionsexist.Low115kVand345kV

293TCSCsareseriescapacitorsthatcanchangetheirimpedancewithinafractionofacycle.Theyareatypeofflexiblealternating‐currenttransmissionsystem(FACTS)devicethatusesathyristor—apowerelectronicscomponentthatprovidestheabilitytoswitchoutput.(SeeSection11.3.1formoreonFACTSdevices.)294StrategicTransmissionAnalysis:WindIntegrationStudy,PACpresentation(December18,2013),https://smd.iso‐ne.com/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/ceii/mtrls/2013/dec182013/a4_wind_study.pdf.


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voltagescouldbeexperienced,andtheperformanceoftheBPScouldbeunacceptablydegradedduringextremecontingencyconditions.

Theselocalconstraintstotheaddedwindgenerationmaybeaddressedwithoutmajortransmissionconstructionforupto418MWofwindcapacity.Thisresultrecognizesreasonablyanticipatedseasonalvariationsofplantoutput,providedthateachnewwindplantisinterconnectedwithaphysicallyandeconomicallyrealisticamountofdynamicreactivecompensation.Transmissionimprovementswouldincludeitemssuchastheadditionofseriescircuitbreakers,therebuildingofshortsectionsoftransmissionlines,andtheadditionofreactivedevices.

RumfordRegion.Thisareawasanalyzedforitsabilitytoaccommodate130MW(nameplatecapability)ofwindcapacity.Nothermallimitationswouldbeexpectedatthisgenerationlevel.Low115kVand345kVvoltagescouldbeexperiencedfornormaldesigncontingencies,andtheperformanceofthesystemcouldbeunacceptablydegradedduringextremecontingencyconditions.

Upgradeswouldbeneededtointegrateexistingandproposedgeneration.Localconstraintscouldbeaddressedwithoutmajortransmissionlineconstruction.SystemperformanceisinterdependentwiththeWymanHydroregion,andthetransmissionupgradesindicatedforthisregionwouldalsoaddressconstraintsforRumfordregion’sgenerators.Thisanalysisdoesnotindicatetheextenttowhichgenerationcouldbeaddedbeforeminorormajortransmissionconstructionwouldbecomenecessary.

10.2.2.3 Summary Results for the Local Vermont Regions

TheresultsforthethreelocalVermontregionsaresummarizedbelow:

NorthernVermontRegion.Theabilitytoaccommodate287MW(nameplatecapability)ofwindinthisareawasanalyzed.TheHighgateHVDCconnectiontoQuébecwasmodeledatfullimportof216MW(measuredattheNewEnglandsideoftheterminal)duringtheanalysis.Duetothesingleloopnatureofthetransmissionsysteminthisregion,athermallimitof213MWwasobservedunderwinterloadandline‐ratingconditions,whenthewindwouldbeexpectedtobeatitsmaximumoutput.Theanalysisalsoconsideredtheintegrationofthewindresourcesundersummer,shoulderload,andlight‐loadconditions.Thermaltransmissionconstraintscausedthesummerlimitonwindgenerationtobe120MWofoperatingcapability.However,theexpectedtypicaloutputof287MWofnameplatewindgenerationinthesummerperiodwasestimatedtobe86MW,andtheexpectedmaximumoutputwasestimatedtobe186MW.

Similarly,intheshoulderandlight‐loadscenarios,limitationswereidentifiedthatwouldpermitexpectedwindgenerationoutputundertypicaloutputconditionsbutberestrictiveundermaximumexpectedoutputlevelsfortheseseasons.Nominortransmissionupgradeswereidentifiedthatcouldincreasethethermallimitsidentifiedintheanalysis.StabilityanalysisrevealedthatadditionalreactivesupportwouldberequiredatJayTapandHighgatetomeettheminimumoperatingvoltagerequirementatHighgateandaccommodatewinduptotheseasonalthermallimits.Intotal,alittleover100MVARofreactivesupportwouldneedtobeaddedinthesetwolocations,amixofstaticcapacitorsandsynchronouscondensers.

CentralVermontRegion.Theabilitytoaccommodate165MW(nameplatecapability)ofwindinthisareawasanalyzed.Thisareahasarelativelystrong345kVbackbone,sonothermalorstabilityreliabilityviolationswereobservedatthislevelofwindoutput.Therefore,nomajortransmissionimprovementswouldbenecessaryatthislevelofwindproduction.Theexistingsystemcouldaccommodate231MW(nameplatecapability)ofwindgeneration,operatingatfulloutput,beforethe115kVsystemwouldbegintoexperiencethermaloverloads.


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SouthernVermontRegion.Theabilitytoaccommodate95MWofwindinthisareawasanalyzed.Underwinterconditions,thisareacouldaccommodatemostofthiscapacity—93MW.However,duringsummer‐,light‐,andshoulder‐loadperiods,summerratingthermalconstraintsonthe69kVtransmissionsystemwouldlimitthetotalamountofwindthatcouldbeaccommodatedto81MW.Whilethisisonly85%ofthenameplatecapacityofthewindstudied,itisabovethereasonablyexpectedmaximumoutputofthesewindplantsintheseloadperiods.Thissuggeststhatthe95MWofnameplatecapacitycanbeaccommodatedundermostreasonablyanticipatedconditionsduringtherestoftheyear.

10.2.2.4 Strategic Transmission Analysis Conclusions

TheSTAexaminedtheintegrationof1,113MWofwindresourcesinMaineand547MWinVermont.Oftheseamounts,allbut85MWinMainecouldbeaccommodatedwithoutmajornewtransmissioninvestment.TransmissionsystemimprovementsarenecessarytoaddressacombinationoflocalandregionaltransmissionconstraintsandaddressBPSperformanceconcerns.AdditionalwindresourcesplannedfortheWymanHydroandRumfordregionscouldlikelybeaccommodatedwithoutamajornewtransmissionlinetothelocalregions.However,theKeeneRoadandBangorregionscannotsupportmuchadditionalwindcapacitybeyondtheamountstudiedwithoutmajornewtransmissionfacilities.

NorthernVermontwouldrequirenewreactivesupporttoaccommodateadditionalwindandwouldstillbethermallyconstrainedbelowtheamountofwindstudiedbutlesssointhewinterthaninotherseasons.CentralVermontshowednoconstraintstotheamountofwindinthequeuestudied(165MW)and,thestudydeterminedthatthisareawouldbecapableofintegratingabout231MWofwind.SouthernVermontshowedonlyminorconstraints.Someriskofcurtailmentremainsathigherwindloadlevelsinthenorthernandsouthernregionsifonlynonmajorupgradesareapplied.Majorupgradeswouldbenecessarytoeliminatethemaximumwind‐conditionrestrictions;however,nocurtailmentwouldberequiredattypicalwindlevels.

Large‐Scale Adoption of Photovoltaic Resources and Other Distributed Generation 10.3Resources

NewEnglandhaswitnessedsignificantgrowthinthedevelopmentofsolarphotovoltaicresourcesoverthepastfewyears,andcontinuedgrowthofPVisanticipated(seeSection3.3.3).PVinstallationsnotcountedasISOresourcesreducethesummerpeakload,andthetechnologyholdspromiseasanonemittingsourceofelectricenergythatcanbereliablyandeconomicallyintegratedintothesystem.ReliablyandeconomicallyintegratingPVtotheelectricpowersystem,however,posessomechallenges.

RegionalPVinstallationsarepredominantlysmall(i.e.,lessthan10MW)andstate‐jurisdictionallyinterconnectedtothedistributionsystem.StatepolicieslargelyinfluencethespatialdistributionofPV,suchthatstateswithmore‐supportivePVpolicies(e.g.,Massachusetts)areexperiencingthemostgrowthoftheresource.ExistingamountsofPVhavenotcausednoticeableeffectsonsystemoperation,butimpactsareanticipatedaspenetrationsgrow.Toexamineandprepareforthepotentialeffectsoflarge‐scalePVdevelopmentintheregion,theISOhasengagedintheinitiativessummarizedbelow.

Operational Solar Forecasting 10.3.1

BecausetheISOcannotobserveordispatchmostPVintheregion,theseprojectsactasamodifierofsystemloadthatmustbeaccuratelyforecastedintheshort‐termtosupporttheefficientadministrationoftheday‐aheadmarketandthereliableoperationofthesystem.AsPVpenetrationscontinuetogrowanddisplaceenergyproductionfromotherresources,PVpowerproductionwillintroduceincreasedvariabilityanduncertaintytothesystemandeventuallywillhaveanimpactonsystemoperations(e.g.,


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resultintheneedforincreasedreserve,regulation,andramping).Assuch,newforecastingtechniqueswillberequiredtoaccountforPVgenerationappropriately.

Inearly2013,theISObeganparticipatinginathree‐year,DOE‐fundedprojecttoimprovethestateofthescienceofsolarforecasting.295TheresultsofthisprojectwillassisttheISOindevelopingwaysofincorporatingtheload‐reducingeffectsofPVintoimprovedload‐forecastingprocessesrequiredtosupporttheefficientandreliableintegrationofincreasingamountsofPV.

Potential Reliability Impacts of PV 10.3.2

Becauseofthedifferencesbetweenthestate‐jurisdictionalinterconnectionstandardsthatapplytomostPVfacilitiesandtheFERC‐jurisdictionalstandardsthatapplytolarger,conventionalgenerators,PVexhibitsdifferentelectricalcharacteristicsduringsystemconditionstypicalofgriddisturbances(e.g.,low‐voltageconditionsduringanunexpectedoutageofalargegeneratorortransmissionfacility).TheISOparticipatedinanEPRIevaluationofthepotentialreliabilityimpactsoflargeamountsofdistributedgeneration,suchasPV.296

TheISOaskedtheregion’sutilitiesabouttheirinterconnectionstandards,andtheresponsesindicatedthatmostPVunitsmeettheexistingIEEE1547standards.297ThesestandardsweredesignedforrelativelysmallpenetrationsofDGanddonotrequirePVresourcestobeableto“ridethrough”afaultonthetransmissionsystem.

Ahigh‐levelscreeningconductedbytheISOshowedthepotentiallossofPVresultingfromfaultsonthetransmissionsystem.ThefollowingmapsinFigure10‐1,ofConnecticutandMassachusetts,showtheareaswherePVfacilitiesarelikelytotripofflinebecauseoflowvoltageintheeventofafaultonthe345kVtransmissionsystem.Thiscouldresultinthermalorstabilityproblemsandcouldcausetheneedforadditionaltransmissionupgrades.AsPVpenetrationsgrow,theseverityofthispotentialproblemcouldalsogrow.

295OnDecember27,2012,theDOESolarProgramawardedfundingtotheIBMThomasJ.WatsonResearchCenter(DOEAwardNo.DE‐EE0006017).MoreinformationisavailableatDOE,“ImprovingtheAccuracyofSolarForecastingFundingOpportunity,”webpage(n.d.),http://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/improving‐accuracy‐solar‐forecasting‐funding‐opportunityandDOE,“Watt‐Sun:AMultiscale,Multimodel,Machine‐LearningSolarForecastingMethodology,“webarticle(n.d.),http://energy.gov/eere/sunshot/watt‐sun‐multi‐scale‐multi‐model‐machine‐learning‐solar‐forecasting‐technology.296EPRI,RecommendedSettingsforVoltageandFrequencyRide‐ThroughofDistributedEnergyResources(May8,2015),http://www.epri.com/abstracts/Pages/ProductAbstract.aspx?ProductId=000000003002006203.297InstituteofElectricalandElectronicsEngineers(IEEE)1547establishescriteriaandrequirementsfortheinterconnectionofdistributedresourceswithelectricpowersystems.Thisdocumentprovidesauniformstandardfortheperformance,operation,testing,safetyconsiderations,andmaintenanceoftheinterconnection.See“IEEE1547StandardforInterconnectingDistributedResourceswithElectricPowerSystems,”webpage(2014),http://grouper.ieee.org/groups/scc21/1547/1547_index.html.


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Figure 10‐1: Areas (in blue), in Connecticut (left) and Massachusetts (right), where PV resources are likely to trip off line because of low voltage in the event of a fault on the 345 kV transmission system.

Notes: The key refers to per‐unit voltage. Also see Impacts of Transmission System Contingencies on Distributed Generation—Overview, PAC presentation (December 16, 2013), http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/committees/comm_wkgrps/othr/distributed_generation_frcst/2013mtrls/dec162013/dg_transmission_impacts.pdf.

Asensitivityanalysisalsowasconducted,whichindicatesthatlowvoltagewillbemorewidespreadwhenlocalgenerationisnotoperating,forexample,onaspringdaywithlightloadandhighwindandsolargeneration.

TheISOisworkingwiththeNewEnglandstates,distributionutilities,andIEEEandotherinternationalexpertstoensurethatthefutureinterconnectionstandardsforPV(andotherinverter‐interfacedDGresources)bettercoordinatewithbroadersystemreliabilityrequirements.298TheISOwillparticipateinrevisingtheIEEEstandardswiththeaimofimprovingthecoordinationofdistributionsystemneedsandtransmissionsystemperformancerequirementswithoutimposingbarrierstothedevelopmentofdistributedgeneration.299

TheISOalsowillcontinuetoactivelytrackthegrowthofPVintheregionandevaluateitspotentialimpactsontheefficientadministrationofwholesaleelectricitymarketsandthereliableoperationandplanningoftheregion’selectricpowersystem.BecausemanyotherregionsofNorthAmericaalsoarewitnessingthelarge‐scaleadoptionofPV,theISOalsoisengagingwithotherISO/RTOstosharerelevantmethodsandexperience.

Other Challenges of PV Integration 10.3.3

ThegrowthinDGpresentssomechallengesforgridoperatorsandplanners.ChallengesfortheISOincludethefollowing:

DifficultyobtainingandmanagingtheamountofdataconcerningDGresources,includingtheirsize,location,andoperationalcharacteristics

298IEEE1547andinterconnectionrequirementsforlow/high‐voltageridethrough,low/high‐frequencyridethrough,ramprates,andothers.299DGInterconnectionIssues,PACpresentation(July7,2015),http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/2015/07/a2_dg_interconnection_issues_update.pdf.


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AcurrentinabilitytoobserveandcontrolmostDGresourcesinrealtime

AneedtobetterunderstandtheimpactsonsystemoperationsoftheincreasingamountsofDG,includingramping,reserve,andregulationrequirements

TheISO’sworkwiththeregionalstakeholderswillhelppositiontheregiontobestintegraterapidlygrowingDGresourcesinawaythatmaintainsreliabilityandallowsthestatestorealizethepublicpolicybenefitstheyhaveidentifiedasthebasisfortheirDGprograms.

Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study 10.3.4

NRELisnearingcompletionoftheEasternRenewableGenerationIntegrationStudy(ERGIS).300ThestudysimulatedoperationsoftheEasternInterconnectionwithhighpenetrationsofwindandsolargenerationandsoughttoadvancethestate‐of‐the‐artofpreviouslarge‐scalerenewablesintegrationstudies,suchastheEasternWindIntegrationandTransmissionStudy(EWITS).301TheERGISstudywasthefirsttoexaminelargepenetrationsofsolarpowerintheeasternUnitedStates,includingscenarioswithsolarpenetrationsofupto174GW,andusedthemostdetailedrepresentationoftheentireEasternInterconnectiontodate.

Economic Performance of the System and Other Studies 10.4

Economicstudiesprovidemetricsdepictingvarioussystem‐expansionscenariosandtheprosandconsassociatedwithselectedpossiblefuturescenarios.Thesescenarioscouldassesssystemperformanceatahigherlevel,suchaspossibleadditionalimportsfromCanada,resourceretirements,andresourceadditions,butdonotassessscenariosandtheperformanceofindividualassetowners.Thekeymetricsdevelopedincludeestimatesofproductioncosts,transmissioncongestion,electricenergycostsforNewEnglandconsumers,andanumberofothers.Thesemetricssuggestthemosteconomicallocationsforresourcedevelopmentandtheleasteconomicallocationsforresourceretirements.

2011 to 2013 Economic Studies and 2015 Economic Study Request 10.4.1

The2011,2012,and2013economicstudiesanalyzedseveralofthestrategicissuestheregionisaddressing.302

The2011EconomicStudyexaminedtheeffectsofintegratingvaryingamountsofwindonproductioncosts,load‐servingentity(LSE)expenses,andemissions,aswellastheneedfortransmissiondevelopment,toenablewindresourcestoservetheregion’sloadcenters.

The2012EconomicStudyhighlightedtheleastsuitablelocationsforunitretirementsandthemostsuitablelocationsfordevelopingnewresourcesusingcongestionasthekeymetric

300NREL,“EasternRenewableGenerationIntegrationStudy,”webpage(2015),http://www.nrel.gov/electricity/transmission/eastern_renewable.html.301EnerNex,EasternWindIntegrationandTransmissionStudy(NREL,2011),http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/47078.pdf.302ISONewEngland,2012EconomicStudy,finalreport(April30,2014),http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/reports/2014/a9_2012_economic_study_final.pdf,and2011EconomicStudy,finalreport(March31,2014),http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/committees/comm_wkgrps/prtcpnts_comm/pac/reports/2014/2011_eco_study_final.pdf.The2013EconomicStudy(October30,2014),http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/2014/10/2013_economic_study_final.pdf.


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associatedwitheachlocation.Thestudyshowedtheeffectsofusingvariousamountsofenergyefficiencyandlow‐emittingresources,includingrenewableenergy,aswellasothertechnologies.

The2013EconomicStudyexaminedtheeconomicandenvironmentaleffectsofincreasingtheacceptableloss‐of‐source(LOS)limitsinNewEngland.

TheISOdidnotconducta2014economicstudybecauseitdidnotreceiveanyrequestsforoneorproposeone.

TheISOreceivedthreeeconomicstudyrequestsin2015toassessthefollowingtopics:303

OnshorewinddevelopmentintheKeeneRoadareaofnorthernMaineandtheeffectsofupgradingtheKeeneRoadInterface.

OnshorewinddevelopmentinMaineandtheeffectsofimplementingtheconceptualimprovementsidentifiedintheStrategicTransmissionAnalysis:WindIntegrationStudy.

Offshorewinddevelopmentandtheeffectsofaddingtransmissionimprovementsthatrelievepotentialbottlenecks

Approximately320MWofwindresourcesarelocatedintheKeeneRoadarea,andover90MWofadditionalfuturedevelopmentisproposedforinterconnectingtothe115kVsysteminthearea.ThefirsteconomicstudywilldevelopmetricstoquantifytheeffectsofcurtailmentsexpectedonthepostMPRPsystem(seeSection6.3).TheeffectofpotentialimprovementsintheKeeneRoadareawillthenbeevaluatedtoquantifythepossiblebenefitsassociatedwithmarketefficiencytransmissionupgrades(seeSections2.1.1.2and6.5.2)thatcouldallowthewindresourcestooperatewithoutthecurrentlevelofconstraints.AdditionalanalysisbeyondtheeconomicstudywouldberequiredtofullydevelopanyMETUs.

Thesecondproposedeconomicstudywillinvestigatescenariosofwind‐resourcedevelopmentandwillshowtheeffectoftheconceptualtransmissionsystemexpansioninMaine.AsdiscussedinSection10.2.2,theStrategicTransmissionAnalysis:WindIntegrationStudyidentifiedanumberofconceptualtransmissionupgradesthatcouldrelieveconstraintstoexistingandplannedonshorewinddevelopmentthroughoutMaine.Thisstudymayinformtheregiononthecostandbenefitsofpursuingthesetransmissionupgrades.

Thethird2015economicstudywillexamineoffshorewinddevelopmentnearRhodeIslandandSoutheastMassachusetts.TheanalysisincludestheeffectsofimportsfromCanadaovernewinterconnectionsandthedevelopmentofonshorewindgenerationinnorthernNewEngland.Thestudyalsoconsiderstheretirementofoldernuclear,coal‐fired,andoil‐firedgeneratingunits.Thisstudymayalsoinformtheregionoftheneedtopursuepublicpolicytransmissionupgrades.

3032015EconomicStudiesKeeneRoadUpgradesScopeofWork—RevisedDraft,PACpresentation(June17,2015),http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/2015/06/a9_2015_economic_studies_keene_rd_upgrades_scope_of_work_revised_draft.pdf.2015EconomicStudiesStrategicTransmissionAnalysis—On‐ShoreWindIntegrationScopeofWork—RevisedDraft,PACpresentation(June17,2015),http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/2015/06/a9_2015_economic_studies_on_shore_wind_integration_scope_of_work_revised_draft.pdf.2015EconomicStudy—Off‐ShoreWindScopeofWork—RevisedDraft,PACpresentation(June17,2015),http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/2015/06/a9_2015_economic_studies_off_shore_wind_scope_of_work_revised_draft.pdf.


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Generic Capital Costs of New Supply Resources 10.4.2

Thecomparisonoftheenergymarketrevenueswiththeannualrevenuerequirements(alsocalledannualcarryingcharges)providessomerelativemeasuresoftheeconomicviabilityofdifferentresourcetypesandhowthesemeasureschangeundervariousscenarios.Eachresourcetype’sannualfixedcostsincludeitscapital,operations,andmaintenancecosts.Thesefixedcostscanbecalculatedfromestimatesofannualcarryingchargesderivedfromrepresentativecapitalcostsforeachresourcetype.Thesetypicallyare15%to25%ofthecapitalcosts.

Insupportoftheeconomicstudiesfor2015,theISOupdatedthegenericcapitalcostsfornewresources,asshowninTable10‐1.304ThefocusofthisupdatewasontheresourcetechnologiesintheISOGeneratorInterconnectionQueueandthoseparticipatingintheFCM.TheupdatedplantcostsarefromDOE’sEnergyInformationAdministration(EIA),theElectricPowerResearchInstitute(EPRI),theBrattleGroup,ISONewEngland,andtheWesternElectricityCoordinatingCouncil(WECC).305

304ISONewEngland,GenericCapitalCostsofSupply‐SideResources,PACpresentation(April28,2015),http://iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/2015/04/a4_generic_costs_of_supply_resources.pdf.

305EIA,AssumptionstotheAnnualEnergyOutlook2014,“ElectricityMarketModule”(2014),www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/assumptions/pdf/electricity.pdf,andCapitalCostforElectricityPlants(April12,2013),www.eia.gov/forecasts/capitalcost/.

EPRI,ProgramonTechnologyInnovation:IntegratedGenerationTechnologyOptions2012(February10,2013),www.epri.com/abstracts/Pages/ProductAbstract.aspx?productId=000000000001026656.

ISONewEngland,"NetCONEEstimatesforPotentialReferenceTechnologies,"Exceltable(March2014),www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/committees/comm_wkgrps/mrkts_comm/mrkts/mtrls/2014/mar192014/a02_iso_net_cone_capital_budgeting_model_03_14_14.xlsx,and“SummaryofConstructionCashFlows"Exceltable(September2013),www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/committees/comm_wkgrps/mrkts_comm/mrkts/mtrls/2013/oct892013/a06_iso_ortp_analysis_final_results_10_02_13.xlsx.

WECC,CapitalCostReviewofPowerGenerationTechnologies(March2014),www.wecc.biz/Reliability/2014_TEPPC_Generation_CapCost_Report_E3.pdf.


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Table 10‐1 Generic Capital Costs of New Supply‐Side Resources

Technology Type(a) Plant Size(b)

(MW) Heat Rate(b) (Btu/kWh)

Total Plant Cost(c) ($/kW)

Advanced combined cycle (CC)

340–400 6,430–7,525 1,020–2,085

Advanced gas turbine (GT)

190–210 9,090–9,750 675–1,430

Biomass 20–100 12,350–13,500 3,600–8,180

Conventional CC 550–730 7,000–7,525 825–1,150

Conventional GT 85–420 10,575–10,815 630–970

Natural gas fuel cells 10 9,500 7,045

Offshore wind 200–400 N/A 3,100–6,190

Onshore wind 50–200 N/A 1,750–2,400

Solar photovoltaic 5–150 N/A 2,000–3,565

(a) Technology types in the queue as of April 1, 2015.

(b) Additional information about these data is available in the ISO PAC presentation, Generic Capital Costs of Supply‐Side Resources (April 28, 2015), http://www.iso‐ne.com/static‐assets/documents/2015/04/a4_generic_costs_of_supply_resources.pdf.

(c) The total plant costs are also referred to as the overnight construction costs or overnight capital costs.

Specificprojectcostsmaydifferfromgenericestimatesduetoanumberofdifferentfactors,suchasthefollowing:

Resourcesize

Stateoftechnologydevelopment

Changesinmaterial,labor,andoverheadcosts

Supply‐chainbacklogsoroversupply

Specificsiterequirements

Regionalcostdifferences

Difficultiesinobtainingsiteandtechnologyapprovals

Inaddition,experiencesuggeststhatmanyconstructionprojectsencounterunforeseendesignandconstructionproblemsthattendtoincreasecosts.

Summary 10.5

TheISOcontinuestoanalyzewindintegrationandadvancetheimplementationofwindforecastinganddispatch.Whilethelevelofwindresourceshasnotyettriggeredadditionalrequirements,theISOisworkingtowardincreasingsystemflexibilityandhasincreaseditsoperatingreservetoaddressresourceperformanceissues.TheISOisimprovingthemodelingofwindresourcesandhasupdatedtheprocessforpursuingelectiveupgrades.

TheStrategicTransmissionAnalysis:WindIntegrationStudydevelopedconceptualadditionstothetransmissionsystemthatwouldenableonshorewindresourcestoreliablyserveload.Economicstudiesareshowingtheeffectsofintegratingvaryingamountsofwindgenerationonproductioncost,load‐


ISO‐NEPUBLIC

servingenergyexpenses,andcongestion.Thesestudiesalsoareindicatingtheneedfortransmissiondevelopmenttoenablewindresourcestoservetheregion’sloadcenters.TheISOwillcontinuetoengagestakeholdersontheissueschallengingthewind‐interconnectionprocessandtheperformanceofthesystemwithwindresourcesinlocallyconstrainedareas.

Economicstudieshaveexaminedvariousscenariosofchangesintransfercapabilities,resourceexpansion,andretirementscenarios.Whencompleted,the2015economicstudyoftheKeeneRoadareamayidentifyneedsthatcouldleadtoamarketefficiencytransmissionupgrade.The2015economicstudiesofonshorewindexpansionandoffshorewindexpansionmaytriggertheneedforfurtheranalysisleadingtopublicpolicytransmissionupgrades.

AdditionalworkremainsonincorporatingtheeffectsofPVinimprovedshort‐termload‐forecastingtoolsforusebysystemoperatorsandfullyaddressingthepotentialreliabilityrisksposedbygrowingpenetrationsofPV.

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