2015 Final Performance Report for the Northeast Groundfish Fishery: an overview

Tammy Murphy, Gregory Ardini, Maria Vasta,

Andrew Kitts, Chad Demarest, John Walden and Daniel Caless NEFSC

January 31, 2018

NEFMC Meeting

Portsmouth, New Hampshire

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Groundfish NGF

Landings for all limited access groundfish vessels

all trips, million landed pounds, May-April

Mill

ion

po

un

ds (

lan

de

d)

Total Landings (GF+NGF) at a 9 year low in 2015 (231.1M lbs., -10.9% from 2007)

GF landings at a 9 year low in 2015 (41.6 million lbs. in 2015, -34.5% from 2007)

NGF landings are relatively more stable (189.5 million lbs. in 2015, -3.2% from 2007)

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Groundfish NGF

$2

01

0 p

er

lb.

Average price per pound, $2010

all trips, all landings, May-April

Average GF price has trended downward since 2010.

In 2015, average NGF price was $0.14/lb. higher than in 2014

and at its second highest value in the 9 yr. period.

Since 2010,

CP vessels have

typically received

higher average

prices for GF and

NGF than sector

vessels.

Total gross revenues up 4.6% in 2015 compared to 2014, but down 12% overall from 2007.

Revenues for all active limited access groundfish vessels

all trips, million $2010, May-April

The GF share of

total revenues was

29.8% in 2007,

peaked at 31.4% in

2009, and dropped

each year

afterwards to 9 yr.

low of 19% in

2015.

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mill

ion

$20

10

Groundfish NGF

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gross Revenue from all GF landings on all trips

GF revenues at a 9 year low in 2015 ($51.2M)

Down $4.2M (-7.6%) from 2014

Down $40.0M (-43.9%) from 2007

Millio

n $

20

10

Value of Groundfish Landings

all trips, million $2010, May-April

In 2015, sector

vessels earned

97.7% of the total

value of GF landings.

Value of Allocated GF Species

all trips, million $2010, May-April

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

Cod Haddock Winter Flounder Pollock

Mill

ion

$20

10

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

In 2015, 12.3% of

GF revenue was

from cod,

compared to >30%

in 2007-2011. Cod

revenues fell

79.6% overall from

2007-2015.

Value of Allocated GF Species (continued)

all trips, million $2010, May-April

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

White Hake AmericanPlaice

YTF WitchFlounder

Redfish

Mill

ion

$20

10

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Non-groundfish, all trips

Gross Revenue from all NGF landings on all trips

NGF revenues increased 1.6% overall from 2007-2015.

NGF revenues were at their 3rd highest value in the 9 yr.

period in 2015 ($218.4M), up 8% from 2014.

Mill

ion

$2

01

0

Value of Non-groundfish Landings

all trips, million $2010, May-April

Top NGF Specie landed by the limited access GF Fleet, by value

Sea Scallops

all trips, million $2010, May-April

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mill

ion

$20

10Sea Scallops

Scallop revenue earned by the fleet was up 8.1% overall

from 2007-2015, with landings down 34.4% and average

price up 64.9%.

Between 2007-

2015, the

percentage of NGF

revenue from

scallops ranged

from 28.0% (2014)

to 37.8% (2012). In

2015, 32.3% of

NGF revenue

earned by the fleet

was from scallops.

Top NGF Species landed by limited access GF fleet, by value

(excluding scallops)

all trips, million $2010, May-April

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

Lobster LF Squid Monk Sum Flounder Silver Hake Skates Herring Scup Jonah Crab

Mill

ion

$201

0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Fewer active vessels across all vessel length classes

Down 6.1% (-44 vessels) from 2014, down 34.7% (-361 vessels) from 2007

Number of limited access groundfish vessels

with revenue from any species, May-April

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100

200720082009201020112012201320142015

Number of Active Vessels

< 30'

30'-<50'

50'- <75'

75'+

Fewer active vessels targeting GF across all vessel length classes

Down 9.7% (-30 vessels) from 2014, down 58.1% (-389 vessels) from 2007

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

200720082009201020112012201320142015

Number of active vessels with revenue from at least one GF trip

< 30'

30'-<50'

50'- <75'

75'+

Number of active limited access groundfish vessels

with revenue from at least one GF trip, May-April

The % of the fleet

earning revenue

from GF trips has

fallen overall,

from 64.4% in

2007 to 41.3% in

2015.

Fewer Active Vessel Affiliations

Affiliations with revenue from any species down 29.4% (-232 affiliations) in 2015 from 2007.

Affiliations with revenue from GF trips down 50.5% (-245 affiliations) in 2015 from 2007.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Nu

mb

er o

f V

esse

l Aff

iliat

ion

s

Any species

At least one GF Trip

Inactive

Number of Vessel Affiliations

(with revenue from any species, with revenue from at least one GF trip, and inactive)

The number of crew trips fell over 2007-2015 across all vessel length categories and

was down 35.8% in 2015 from 2007 for all vessels combined.

Decreases over 2007-2015 ranged from -14.5% for <30’ to -39.0% for 30’ to <50’ vessels.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Th

ou

san

d C

rew

Tri

ps

< 30'

30' to <50'

50' to < 75'

75' +

Number of Crew Trips by Vessel Length Category

(thousand trips, all trips, May-April)

All home ports

saw declines

in the number

of crew trips

over 2007-

2015.

The number of crew days for all vessels combined was down 23.5% from 2007-2015.

Decreases over 2007-2015 ranged from -13.4% for <30’ to -34.8% for 30’ to <50’ vessels.

Number of Crew Days by Vessel Size Category

(thousand days, all trips, May-April)

All home ports

saw declines

in the number

of crew days

over 2007-

2015.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Th

ou

san

d C

rew

Day

s

< 30'

30' to <50'

50' to < 75'

75' +

More on Crew Employment

• Crew positions for all trips by all limited access GF vessels were at a 9 yr. low in 2015, with a 29.0% overall decrease from 2007 .

• Most home ports have seen declines in crew positions over 2007-2015; these declines range from -7.7% (-13 positions) in NJ to -54.0% (-67 positions) for NH. MA lost the greatest number of crew positions in absolute terms (-463 crew positions).

• For all vessels combined, crew days on all trips generally declined over 2007 (200,622 crew days) to 2015 (153,550 crew days), but crew days were slightly higher in 2015 than in 2014 (151,479 crew days).

• Crew trips decreased more rapidly than crew days. The ratio of crew days to crew trips increased from 2007 (1.28) to 2015 (1.53), which means that crew are spending more time per earning opportunity.

Measuring Economic Performance Estimation of Net Revenue

• Net Revenue = Gross Revenue – Trip Costs

o Trip costs included: fuel, oil, ice, bait, food, water, damages, lumpers fees and sector membership fees. Communication and trucking costs not accounted for.

Limitations• Does not account for quota leasing costs incurred or leasing

revenues received.

• Does not reflect fixed costs.

• Net revenue is not a measure of profitability.

Net Revenue Estimation

Methodology and Assumptions

o Trip costs for all trips were estimated using cost information from

observed trips. Average costs per day were estimated for 184 vessel

types (based on gear, vessel length, trip duration and fishing year).

o Assumptions about whether the vessel is operated by the owner or a

hired captain (based on data from cost survey):

Vessels < 75’:

-Crew of <3: operator is owner.

-Crew of 3+: operator is a hired captain.

Vessels 75’+: operator is assumed to be a hired captain.

$0.0$0.2$0.4$0.6$0.8$1.0$1.2$1.4$1.6$1.8$2.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Owner Share: <30' Crew Share: <30'

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Owner Share: 30' to <50'

Crew Share: 30' to <50'

Median Per Vessel Owner Share of Net Revenue increased overall from 2007-2015 for <30’ vessels

(+62.5%, +$0.5 thousand) and for 30’ to <50’ vessels (+13.5%, +$7.5 thousand).

Median Per Vessel Crew Share of Net Revenue also increased from 2007-2015 for 30’ to <50’ vessels

(+10.6%, +$1.9 thousand). These estimates are not adjusted for leasing.

Median owner and crew shares of net revenue per vessel for

<30’ and 30’ to <50’ vessels

thousand $2010, all trips, May-April

Th

ou

sa

nd

$2

01

0

$0.0

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Owner Share: 50' to <75'

Crew Share: 50' to <75'

$0.0$50.0

$100.0$150.0$200.0$250.0$300.0$350.0$400.0$450.0$500.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Owner Share: 75'+ Crew Share: 75'+

Median Per Vessel Owner Share of Net Revenue increased overall from 2007-2015 for 50’ to <75’ vessels (+60.7%,

+$83.2 thousand) and for 75’+ vessels (+54.8%, +$163.4 thousand).

Median Per Vessel Crew Share of Net Revenue also increased from 2007-2015 for 50’ to <75’ vessels (+71.8%,

+$73.7 thousand) and for 75’+ vessels (+131.5%, +$214.9 thousand). These estimates are not adjusted for leasing.

Median owner and crew shares of net revenue per vessel for

50’ to <75’ and 75’+ vessels

thousand $2010, all trips, May-April

Th

ou

sa

nd

$2

01

0

$0.0

$0.1

$0.2

$0.3

$0.4

$0.5

$0.6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Owner Share: <30' Crew Share: <30'

Fleet Level Owner Share of Net Revenue increased overall from 2007-2015 for <30’ vessels (+33.3%, +$100,000).

Fleet Level Owner and Crew Shares of Net Revenues for 30’ to <50’ vessels decreased 30.4% from 2007-2015,

in part b/c of the decline in active vessels in this category (-37.5%).

These estimates are not adjusted for leasing.

Fleet Level Owner and Shares of Net Revenue for

<30’ and 30’ to <50’ vessels

million $2010, all trips, May-April

Mill

ion

$2

01

0

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Owner Share: 30' to <50' Crew Share: 30' to <50'

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

$80.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Owner Share: 50' to <75' Crew Share: 50' to <75'

Fleet Level Owner and Crew Shares of Net Revenue for 50’ to <75’ fluctuated slightly during 2007-

2015, with a 1.5% decrease overall for owner share and a 0.7% increase overall for crew share. Fleet

Level Owner and Crew Shares of Net Revenue for 75’+ vessels increased overall from 2007-2015, by

9.7% and 31.7%, respectively. These estimates are not adjusted for leasing.

Fleet Level Owner and Crew Shares of Net Revenue for

50’ to <75’ and 75’+ vessels

million $2010, all trips, May-April

Mill

ion

$2

01

0

$0.0

$10.0

$20.0

$30.0

$40.0

$50.0

$60.0

$70.0

$80.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Owner Share: 75'+ Crew Share: 75'+

Consolidation of revenues:

• A shift in the GF fishery towards fewer active vessels or fewer active vessel

affiliations earning from GF and all species.

Distribution of revenues:

• The distribution of GF revenues and total gross revenues among the

remaining active vessels and vessels affiliations in the fishery.

Consolidation and Distribution of Revenues from Landings

by the Active Limited Access GF Fleet

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

10.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Per

cen

t o

f af

filia

tio

ns

25% of Total Gross Revenues

50% of Total Gross Revenues

Total Gross Revenues

(GF + NGF species combined)

Percent of vessel affiliations

earning top 25% and 50% of total gross revenues

from all species landed

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

10.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Per

cen

t o

f af

filia

tio

ns

25% of Groundfish Revenues

50% of Groundfish Revenues

Groundfish Revenues

GF Revenues are more consolidated than Total Gross Revenues

Percent of vessel affiliations

earning top 25% and 50% of groundfish revenues from landed GF

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Gini Coefficients for Distribution of Revenues Among Active Vessel Affiliations

Total Gross Revenues (all species) Groundfish Revenues

Both total gross revenues and groundfish revenues were not equally distributed among active

vessel affiliations at any point during 2007-2015.

GF revenues are more concentrated (or less equally distributed) than total gross revenues,

and there has been an increase in the concentration of GF revenues during 2007-2015.

Gini

Coefficient

1 = Perfect

Inequality

0 = Perfect

Equality

Leasing Activity

(million live pounds, May-April)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mill

ion

Liv

e P

ou

nd

s o

f A

CE

/PS

C Vessel AffiliationLevel

MRI Level

The no. of MRIs leasing in quota fell each yr. from 2010-2015, for an overall 35.1% decrease (-68 MRIs),while

quota volume leased in increased 10.9% overall from 2010-2015.

The no. of vessel affiliations leasing in quota also fell over 2010-2015 (-22.7%,- 44 affiliations). The volume of

quota leased in by vessel affiliations fluctuated from yr. to yr., with 2015 representing a 6 yr. high.

The difference btw quota leased in at

the MRI level & quota leased in at the

affiliation level is quota leased between

MRIs in the same affiliation.

Overall ACE

utilization rate has

ranged from 32%

in 2012 to 42% in

2011, and was

35% in 2015.

Value of ACE/PSC Leasing(million $2010, May-April)

(million $2010, May-April)

$0.0$1.0$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0$8.0$9.0

$10.0$11.0$12.0$13.0$14.0$15.0$16.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mill

ion

$20

10

Transfers BetweenVessel Affiliations

Transfers BetweenMRIs

MRI level: the total

value of quota leased

in decreased 53.8%

(-$6.4M) since 2010,

but was higher in 2015

than 2014.

Affiliation level: the

total value of quota

leased in

decreased -34.8%

(-$2.4M) from

2010.

In each yr. from 2010-2015,

vessels in the 30’ to <50’ length class

account for the largest percentage of

vessels that lease in quota.

More on leasing activity At the stock level, utilization rates in 2015 ranged from 6.0% (GB East Haddock) to

100% (GOM Cod).

GOM Cod had the highest lease price ($2.29/live lb.) of any allocated stock in 2015;

GOM Cod’s lease price exceeded its average ex-vessel price in 2015 ($2.12/live

lb.).

For the other allocated GF stocks for which a lease price could be determined in

2015, the ratio of lease price to ex-vessel price ranged from 11% (GB West Cod) to

69% (SNE/MA Winter Flounder).

Summary GF revenue was at a nine yr. low in 2015 due to both decreases in landings and in

average ex-vessel price (aggregated over all GF stocks).

Due to declining GF revenue and the relative stability of NGF revenue, the limited

access GF fleet must increasing rely on NGF.

The size of the active limited access GF fleet continued to decline, with the decline

more marked in vessels that target GF.

Fishing effort in the fleet declined overall, and declines in effort on GF trips were

more marked than those on NGF trips.

Summary (continued) Opportunities for crew on limited access GF vessels generally declined over 2007-

2015. Total crew positions, crew trips and crew days were at 9 year lows in 2015.

While the number of MRIs and Vessel Affiliations leasing in quota fell over 2010-

2015, the volume of the quota market (total live pounds) generally increased.

For those remaining in the active fleet, net revenue trends vary depending on

vessel size and trip type. Net revenue estimates do not account for leasing activity.

Both total gross revenues from all species and revenues from groundfish were

concentrated in 2007 and remained so during the 9 year time span. Concentration

in GF revenues increased during 2007-2015.

Thank you!

For more information about the 2015 Final Report

on the Performance of the Northeast Groundfish Fishery,

please contact:

Tammy Murphy, Economist

Northeast Fisheries Science Center

Voice: 508.495.4716

Email: Tammy.Murphy@noaa.gov