2014 Post Election Briefing
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Transcript of 2014 Post Election Briefing
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2014 Election Updates & Insights
Post-Election Briefing November 7, 2014
Joe Stewart Executive Director [email protected]
(919) 614-0520
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The North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization exclusively focused on providing innovative educational programs to foster informed civic involvement and a better understanding of how voters perceive key public policy issues that impact our states economic vitality.
NCFEF does not lobby, or participate in any way with political campaigns.
NC FreeEnterprise Foundation
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NCFEF in action 2014 Election
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What was the 2014 election about?
Voter Turnout = 44% Black voter participation = 19 20% White UNA voters in suburban and rural areas = 60:40 for GOP White DEM xover = 12 14%
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Conventional Voter Behavior (CVB) NC CVB = 0
Greater Diversity
Less Native
Suburban Swingers
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More political ads run than any other state
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US Senate
Kay Hagan (I)
Incumbent
47%
Thom Tillis
NC House Speaker
49%
Sean Haugh
Delivery Driver
4%
Was polling off somehow?
In Washington v Raleigh battle, Washington (Obama) lost
Momentum at the end mattered Did deluge of ads make a
difference, because a deluge of ads is probably the new norm
Was LIB a spoiler? Haugh = 108,177 Tillis Hagan = 48,501
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LIB high water mark
2010 2002 Richard Burr 54.81% Elizabeth H. Dole 53.56%
Elaine Marshall 43.05% Erskine B. Bowles 44.96% Michael Beitler 2.09% Sean Haugh 1.45%
Write-in 0.05% Write In 0.03%
2014 Thom Tillis 48.88% Kay Hagan 47.20% Sean Haugh 3.74% Write In 0.18%
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2014 US Senate, by winner in county
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2014 US Senate, by margin of victory in county
AVERY
BURKE
CLEVELAND
GUILFORD
MARTIN
ALLEGHANY
ANSON
ASHE
BEAUFORT
BERTIE
BLADEN
BRUNSWICK
BUNCOMBE
CABARRUS
CALDWELL
CARTERET
CASWELL
CATAWBA CHATHAM
CHEROKEE
CLAY
COLUMBUS
CRAVEN
CUMBERLAND
DARE DAVIDSON
DAVIE
DUPLIN
DURHAM
EDGECOMBE
FORSYTH FRANKLIN
GASTON
GATES
GRAHAM
GREENE
HALIFAX
HARNETT
HAYWOOD
HENDERSON
HERTFORD
HOKE
HYDE
IREDELL
JACKSON
JOHNSTON
JONES
LEE
LENOIR
LINCOLN
MCDOWELL
MACON
MADISON
MECKLENBURG
MOORE
NASH
NEW HANOVER
NORTHAMPTON
ONSLOW
ORANGE
PAMLICO
PENDER
PERSON
PITT
POLK
RANDOLPH
RICHMOND
ROBESON
ROCKINGHAM
ROWAN
RUTHERFORD
SAMPSON
STANLY
STOKES SURRY
SWAIN
TYRRELL
UNION
VANCE
WAKE
WARREN
WASHINGTON
WATAUGA
WAYNE
WILKES
WILSON
YADKIN
YANCEY
Strong GOP > 5% RLean GOP 2% R - 5% R
Competitive 2% R - 2% DLean DEM 2% D - 5% D
Strong DEM > 5% D
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2014 Senate, NY Times on intensity within VTD
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NC Supreme Court Chief Justice
Mark Martin (former Associate Supreme Court Justice, now Chief Justice) 72%
Ola Lewis (current NC Superior Court Judge) 28%
Associate Justice (Martin Seat)
Sam J. Ervin IV (current Court of Appeals Judge) 53%
Robert N. Hunter Jr. (former Court of Appeals Judge, now Associate Justice) 47%
Associate Justice (Hudson Seat)
Robin E. Hudson (current Associate Supreme Court Justice) 52%
Eric L. Levinson (fmr. Court of Appeals Judge) 48%
Associate Justice (Beasley Seat)
Cheri Beasley (current Associate Supreme Court Justice) 50.1%
Mike Robinson (Attorney) 49.9%
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Court of Appeals
Court of Appeals (Hunter Seat)
Lucy Inman (Special Superior Court Judge) 52%
Bill Southern (District Court Judge - District 17-B) 48%
Court of Appeals (Stroud Seat)
Donna Stroud (Incumbent Judge) 100%
Court of Appeals (Davis Seat)
Mark Davis (Incumbent Judge) 59%
Paul Holcombe (District Court Judge - District 11) 41%
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Court of Appeals
Court of Appeals Chief Judge (Martin Seat)
John Arrowood 14% Sabra Faires Patricia "Tricia" Shields
Betsy Bunting Abe Jones Elizabeth Davenport Scott
Lori G. Christian Ann Kirby John M. Tyson 24%
Jeffrey Cook Keischa Lovelace Marion Warren
J. Brad Donovan Marty Martin Chuck Winfree
Daniel Patrick Donahue Hunter Murphy Valerie Johnson Zachary
Joseph "Jody" Newsome
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2014 US Congress CVB Map
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Congressional Races 2014 Winners
Strong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP
12 - Adams* 7 - D. Rouser* 9 - R. Pittenger
1 - G. Butterfield 8 - R. Hudson 11 - M. Meadows
4 - D. Price 3 - W. Jones 5 - V. Foxx
13 - G. Holding 10 - P. McHenry
6 - M. Walker*
2 - R. Ellmers
3 DEM - 10 REP *freshman members = 3
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US Congress
Clay Aiken
Entertainer
41%
Renee Ellmers
Incumbent
59%
NC 2 CVB: Strong REP
Laura Fjeld
Fmr. General
Counsel
41%
Mark Walker
Pastor
59%
NC 6 CVB: Strong REP
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US Congress
Jonathan Barfield
New Hanover Co. Comm.
37%
David Rouzer
Consultant
59%
Wesley Casteen
Attorney/
CPA
4%
NC 7 CVB: Lean REP
NC 7
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2014 NC Senate CVB Map
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2015 Partisan Control of NC Senate Districts
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NC Senate CVB Breakdown Strong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP
28 - G. Robinson 3 - E. Smith-Ingram* 19 - W. Meredith 25 T. McInnis* 45 - D. Soucek 29 - J. Tillman
40 - J. Waddell* 23 - V. Foushee 18 - C. Barefoot 15 - J. Alexander* 50 - J. Davis 30 S. Randleman
38 - J. Ford 5 - D. Davis 1 - B. Cook 9 - M. Lee* 46 - W. Daniel 33 S. Bingham
20 - F. McKissick 13 - J. Smith* 8 - B. Rabon 41 - J. Tarte 35 - T. Tucker
14 - D. Blue 22 - M. Woodard 17 - T. Barringer 26 - P. Berger 42 - A. Wells*
4 - A. Bryant 37 - J. Jackson** 10 - B. Jackson 6 - H. Brown 44 - D. Curtis
21 - B. Clark 16 - J. Stein 12 - R. Rabin 24 - R. Gunn 31 - J. Krawiec
32 - E. Parmon 49 - T. Van Duyn** 27 - T. Wade 7 - L. Pate 34 - A. Brock
11 - B. Newton 47 - R. Hise 43 - K. Harrington
48 - T. Apodaca 39 - B. Rucho
2 - N. Sanderson 36 - F. Hartsell
16 DEM - 34 REP *freshmen members = 7
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Partisan Balance of Power NC Senate
12 = already winners
12 = incumbents in SR districts
4 = incumbents in LR districts
2 = open seats in LR districts
1 = challenge to DEM in LR district (+1)
3 = incumbents in COMP districts
16 34
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NC Senate Open Seat Races
Elizabeth Redenbaugh
Fmr. New Hanover BOE
44%
Michael Lee
Attorney
56%
Jane Smith
Retired Realtor
63%
Bernard White
Small Business Owner
37%
SD 9 CVB: Lean REP SD 13 CVB: Strong DEM
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NC Senate Open Seat Races
Tom Bradshaw
Fmr. Raleigh Mayor
49.6%
John Alexander
Business Owner
50.4%
Joyce Waddell
Educator
WINNER
No Opponent
SD 15 CVB: Lean REP SD 40 CVB: Strong DEM
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NC Senate Races of Notes
Stan White
Realtor
47%
Bill Cook
Incumbent
13 LBR: 78.59
53%
Ernie Ward
Veterinarian
43%
Bill Rabon
Incumbent
13 LBR: 82.03
57%
SD 1 CVB: Competitive SD 8 CVB: Lean REP
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NC Senate Races of Note
Donald Rains
Mayor of Princeton
38%
Brent Jackson
Incumbent
13 LBR: 88.06
62%
Sarah Crawford
Non-Profit Executive
47%
Chad Barefoot
Incumbent
13 LBR: 83.11
53%
SD 10 CVB: Lean REP SD 18 CVB: Competitive
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NC Senate Races To Watch
Billy Richardson
Attorney
46%
Wesley Meredith
Incumbent
13 LBR: 80.00
54%
SD 19 CVB: Competitive
Gene McLaurin
Incumbent
13 LBR: 80.28
47%
Tom McInnis
Small Business Owner
50%
P.H. Dawkins
3%
SD 25 CVB: Lean REP
SD 25
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NC Senate Races of Note
Jane Hipps
Retired Educator
46%
Jim Davis
Incumbent
13 LBR: 84.31
54%
SD 50 CVB: Strong REP
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2014 NC House CVB Map
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2015 Partisan Control of NC House Districts
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NC House CVB Breakdown Strong DEM Lean DEM Competitive Lean REP Strong REP
29 - L. Hall 50 - G. Meyer 66 - K. Goodman 119 - J. Queen 118 - M. Presnell 109 - D. Bumgardner 90 - S. Stevens 78 - A. McNeill 106 - C. Cunnigham 39 - D. Jackson 46 - K. Waddell 2 - L. Yarborough* 6 - P. Tine 19 - T. Davis Jr. 117 - C. McGrady 70 - P. Hurley 102 - B. Carney 12 - G. Graham 54 - R. Reives II 22 - W. Brisson 9 - B. Brown 61 - J. Faircloth 84 - R. Turner 80 - R. Younts 31 - M. Michaux 11 - D. Hall 44 - R. Glazier 92 - C. Jeter 63 - S. Ross 59 - J. Hardister 28 - J. Langdon 73 - L. Zachary* 99 - R. Moore 34 - G. Martin 115 J. Ager* 93 - J. Jordan 111 - T. Moore 52 - J. Boles 85 - J. Dobson 33 - R. Gill 7 - B. Richardson 41 - G. Adcock* 51 - B. Salmon* 104 - D. Bishop* 10 - J. Bell 97 - J. Saine 38 - Y. Holley 18 - S. Hamilton 45 - J. Szoka 40 - M. Avila 26 - L. Daughtry 83 - L. Johnson 79 - J. Howard 107 - K. Alexander 21 - L. Bell 8 - S. Martin 53 - D. Lewis 25 - J. Collins 105 - J. Schaffer 89 - M. Setzer 60 - C. Brockman* 23 - S. Willingham* 49 - G. Pendleton** 35 - C. Malone 86 - H. Blackwell 17 - F. Iler 95 - J. Fraley* 58 - R. Johnson* 72 - E. Hanes 36 - N. Dollar 75 - D. Lambeth 77 - Warren 94 - J. Elmore 56 - V. Insko 43 - E. Floyd 65 - B. Jones 55 - M. Brody 112 - M. Hager 68 - C. Horn 24 - J. Butterfield 47 - C. Graham 116 - B. Turner* 37 - P. Stam 4 - J. Dixon 87 - E. Starnes 57 - P. Harrison 32 - N. Baskerville 1 - B. Steinburg 103 - B. Brawley 91 - B. Holloway 13 - P. McElraft 71 - E. Terry 30 - P. Luebke 14 - G. Cleveland 113 - C. Whitmire 69 - D. Arp 101 - B. Earle 5 - H. Hunter III* 88 - R. Bryan 110 - K. Hastings 76 - C. Ford 48 - G. Pierce 82 - L. Pittman 74 - D. Conrad 81 - R. Brown 114 - S. Fisher 64 - D. Riddell 16 - C. Millis 67 - J. Burr 42 - M. Lucas 3 - M. Speciale 20 - R. Catlin 120 - R. West 100 - T. Cotham 62 - J. Blust 15 - P. Shepard 96 - J. Adams* 27 - M. Wray 98 - J. Bradford* 108 - J. Torbett
46 DEM - 74 REP *freshmen members = 14
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Partisan Balance of Power NC House
31 = already winners
25 = incumbents in SR districts
3 = open seats in SR districts
12 = incumbents in LR districts (+2)
1 = challenge to DEM in LR district
4 = incumbents in COMP districts (+2)
2 = open seats in COMP districts (+1)
46
74
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NC House Open Seat Races
Ray Jeffers
Person Co. Commissioner
43%
Larry Yarborough
Businessman
57%
HD 2 CVB: Competitive
Ralph Johnson
Greensboro Zoning Comm.
WINNER
No Opponent
HD 58 CVB: Strong DEM
HD 2
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NC House Open Seat Races
Cecil Brockman
Consultant
WINNER
No Opponent
HD 60 CVB: Strong DEM
No Opponent
Lee Zachary
Attorney
WINNER
HD 73 CVB: Strong REP
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NC House Open Seat Races
Cliff Moone
Part-Time Professor
33%
Jay Adams
Commercial Realtor
67%
HD 96 CVB: Strong REP
Natasha Marcus
Attorney
45%
John Bradford
Engineer
55%
HD 98 CVB: Strong REP
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NC House Open Seat Races
Dan Bishop
Attorney
75%
Eric Cable
Financial Services
25%
HD 104 CVB: Strong REP
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NC House Races of Note
Garry Meiggs
Camden Co. Commissioner
31%
Bob Steinburg
Incumbent
13 LBR: 87.15
69%
Paul Tine
Incumbent
13 LBR: 68.10
54%
Mattie Lawson
Activist
46%
HD 1 CVB: Lean REP HD 6 CVB: Lean REP
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NC House Races of Note
Brian Mountcastle
Small Business Owner
44%
Chris Malone
Incumbent
13 LBR: 83.57
56%
Lisa Baker
Small Business Owner
46%
Nelson Dollar
Incumbent
13 LBR: 88.27
54%
HD 35 CVB: Lean REP HD 36 CVB: Lean REP
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NC House Races of Note
Margaret Broadwell
Small Business Owner
46%
Marilyn Avila
Incumbent
13 LBR: 88.87
54%
Gale Adcock
Nurse Practitioner
51%
Tom Murry
Incumbent
13 LBR: 93.44
49%
HD 40 CVB: Lean REP HD 41 CVB: Competitive
HD 41
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Rick Glazier
Incumbent
13 LBR: 36.33
52%
Richard Button
Retired Engineer
48%
HD 44
NC House Races of Note
CVB: Lean DEM
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NC House Races of Note
Kim Hanchette
Diabetes Educator
48%
Gary Pendleton
Small Business Owner
52%
HD 49 CVB: Competitive
Ken Waddell
Incumbent
13 LBR: 57.15
53%
Brenden Jones
Small Business Owner
47%
HD 46 CVB: Lean DEM
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NC House Races of Note
Robin Bradford
Activist
47%
Charles Jeter
Incumbent
13 LBR: 86.00
53%
HD 92 CVB: Competitive
Brad Salmon
Attorney & Farmer
54%
Mike Stone
Incumbent
13 LBR: 88.80
46%
HD 51 CVB: Lean REP HD 51
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NC House Races of Note
Sue Counts
Ret NC Coop. Ext.
47%
Jonathan Jordan
Incumbent
13 LBR: 87.50
53%
John Ager
Farmer/ Land Developer
51%
Nathan Ramsey
Incumbent
13 LBR: 88.52
49%
HD 93 CVB: Lean REP HD 115 CVB: Competitive
HD 115
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NC House Races of Note
Brian Turner
Small Business Owner
52%
Tim Moffitt
Incumbent
13 LBR: 95.65
48%
Dean Hicks
Yancey Co. Commissioner
49%
Michele Presnell
Incumbent
13 LBR: 86.25
51%
HD 116 CVB: Lean REP HD 118 CVB: Lean REP
HD 116
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Joe Sam Queen
Incumbent
13 LBR: 32.33
52%
Mike Clampitt
Ret. Firefighter
48%
HD 119 CVB: Competitive
NC House Races of Note
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What we were saying Significant $ Advantage NC House GOP = 2:1
NC Senate GOP = 2.7:1 Outside Money
in US Senate, Judicial, Key Legislative Races
Congressional Races NC7 Likely Goes R
NC2 & NC6 Likely Stay R NC12 Likely Stays D
US Senate = Tight, Likely to Break R Near the End
Seems Very Likely NC General Assembly Remains R Seems Likely +/- Current Numbers
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What did we learn from 2014 Outside money matters has eclipsed candidates and campaigns
Candidates matter a lot especially in the suburbs
North Carolinas politics is indeed nationalized,
but local issues still (and probably always will) matter
The marketing of accomplishments matters, especially if the other side has a lot of $$$
Even celebrities must reflect the voters of the district
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2016 Elections have begun Next up: Select Speaker - Do NC House Outcomes Impact Choices?
Do Governor and Legislative Leaders Find a Way to Get Along?
2016 - Triple Full Moon: President (PRIMARY), Senate, Governor
Other legislative, statewide, Congressional open seats?
2016 Likely To See Large Sums of Outside Money (Again)
Suburban Districts Continue To Grow, Become More PURPLE
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Sponsorships available
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2014 Election Updates & Insights
Thank you for your support!
Joe Stewart Executive Director [email protected]
(919) 614-0520