Primary election briefing presentation

2014 Election Updates & Insights

2016 Primary Election Briefing

January 5, 2016www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF


NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and

analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact

North Carolina’s political landscape.Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]

(919) 614-0520www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF


Visit www.ncfef.org2016 Almanac NCFEF Almanac app

Events Reports

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

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What is the 2016 election ‘about’ … ?

fear … anxiety … anger

Esquire’s survey on American Rage

Surfing Theory of Politics

Key factors in North Carolina 2016 elections

Sen Richard

Burr

2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)

CVB = voters partisan dispositionbased on statewide races 2008 - 2014.

This is the voter party-preferencetopographical map of NC

Suburbs full of ‘swingers’

Other factors: age (esp. Millennials), ethnicity, gender, nativity

Past Election Results @ DMA (courtesy of Glen Bolger, POS)

Charlotte (26%)GOP Dem Other52% 43% 4%53% 45% 2%62% 36% 2%58% 40% 2%52% 47% 1%47% 49% 4%

Other (24%)GOP Dem Other51% 44% 4%54% 45% 1%55% 43% 2%57% 41% 2%46% 53% 1%46% 51% 3%

Triangle (32%)GOP Dem Other

2014 Sen: 42% 55% 3% 2012 Pres: 43% 56% 1% 2012 Gov: 46% 51% 3% 2010 Sen: 47% 51% 2% 2008 Pres: 42% 57% 1% 2008 Sen: 39% 58% 3%

Triad (18%)GOP Dem Other53% 43% 4%54% 45% 1%58% 40% 2%60% 38% 2%52% 47% 1%46% 51% 3%

Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance

MECK

WAKE

2012

Obama 60.8%

54.5%

Romney 38.3%

44.2%

2000

Gore 48.2%

46.0%

Bush 51.0%

53.1%

1988

Dukakis 40.2%

42.8%

Bush 59.4%

56.9%

YearNC

Population

Growth

2010 9,535,475

2014 9,943,964 +408,489

MECK WAKE

2010 919,628 900,993

2014 1,012,539 998,691

GAIN +92,911 +97,698

North Carolina

Statewide Margin

WakeCountyMargin

Mecklenburg CountyMargin

2000 GOP+373,471

GOP+19,028

GOP+7,157

2004 GOP+435,317

GOP+7415

DEM+11,744

2008 DEM+14,177

DEM+64,623

DEM+99,685

2012 GOP+97,465

DEM+54,006

DEM+100,215

2014Senate

GOP+45,608

DEM+43,797

DEM+55,971

Wide Democratic margins inWake & Mecklenburg counties have moved

North Carolina into the “swing” column.

NC Population Growth Not Even49 NC counties have lost population since

2010(2014 Census Bureau Data)

Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 422920%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2%4%

8%10%

16%18%

24%26% 27%

22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 26% 25%25% 27%

45% 43%41% 40%

36% 35%33% 32%

33%31%

29%26% 25%

22% 21%18% 17%

13%

Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer SilentDr. Michael BitzerCatawba College

North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics

President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout?

Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68%

Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play

Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters.

Watch for GOP v GOP Primaries (Establishment v Tea Party)

March 15, 2016 Primary

North Carolina 2016 Primary Dynamics

March 15, 2016 Primary Candidate Filing in Dec 1 – 21

$2 Billion Bond Package on Ballot

What’s the voter turnout profile?

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate

Paul Wright

Larry Holmquis

t

Sen Richard

Burr

GregBrannon

ChrisRey

Deborah Ross

Kevin Griffin

Ernest T. Reeves

Sean Haugh

CVB for US CONGRESS 10 REP – 3 DEMSTRONG DEM (3) LEAN REP (3) STRONG REP (7)

12 Adams*Guilford

3 JonesPitt

13 HoldingWake

10 McHenryGaston

1 ButterfieldWilson

8 HudsonCabarrus

2 EllmersHarnett

5 FoxxWatauga

4 PriceOrange

7 Rouzer*Johnston

6 Walker*Guilford

11 MeadowsMacon

*freshman9 Pittenger

Mecklenburg

CONG DIST CVB CANDIDATES

NC - 1 SD G. K. Butterfield – (I)C. L. Cooke

NC - 2

SR

Renee Ellmers – (I)Jim Duncan

Kay DaleFrank Roche

Tim D'AnnunzioAdam Coker

NC - 3 LR

Walter B. Jones – (I)Phil Law

Taylor GriffinDavid Hurst

NC - 4 SDDavid Price – (I)

Teiji KimballSue Googe

NC - 5 SR

Virginia Foxx – (I)Pattie CurranJosh Brannon


NC - 6 SR

B. Mark Walker – (I)Chris HardinJim Roberts

Pete GlidewellBruce Davis

NC - 7 LRDavid Rouzer – (I)

Mark D. OttoJ. Wesley Casteen

NC - 8 LR Richard Hudson – (I)Thomas Mills

NC - 9 SRRobert Pittenger – (I)

George RoucoChristian Cano

NC - 10 SR

Patrick McHenry – (I)Albert L. Wiley, Jr.

Jeffery GregoryAndy Millard


NC - 11

SR

Mark Meadows – (I)

Tom Hill

Rick Bryson

NC - 12 SD

Alma Adams – (I)

Gardenia Henley

Juan Antonio Marin, Jr.

Leon Threatt

Ryan Duffie

NC - 13 SR

George Holding – (I)

John P. McNeil

Ron Sanyal

STRONG DEM (34) LEAN DEM (2) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)

29 L. HallDurham

114

FisherBuncombe 54 Reives

Lee118

PresnellYancey

55

BrodyUnion 86 Blackwell

Burke110

HastingsGaston 96 Adams*

Catawba

106

CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas

Cumberland 44 Richardson**Cumberland

49

Pendleton*Wake

14

ClevelandOnslow 82 Pittman

Cabarrus 77 WarrenRowan 69 Arp

Union

102

CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter

Hertford COMP (11) 9 Murphy**Pitt

36

DollarWake 15 Shepard

Onslow 98 Bradford*Mecklenburg 13 McElraft

Carteret

31 MichauxDurham 32 Baskerville (NR)

Vance 66 GoodmanRichmond

45

SzokaCumberland

40

AvilaWake

109

BumgardnerGaston 91 Hall**

Stokes 81 Brown (NR)Davidson

33 GillWake 72 Hanes

Forsyth 39 JacksonWake

63

RossAlamance

37

Stam (NR)Wake 26 Daughtry (NR)

Johnston 74 ConradForsyth 87 Robinson

Caldwell

99 MooreMecklenburg

100

Cotham (NR)Mecklenburg 50 Meyer

Orange53

LewisHarnett

62

BlustGuilford 16 Millis

Pender104

Bishop (NR)Mecklenburg 76 Ford

Rowan

38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham*

Edgecombe 119 QueenHaywood

93

JordanAshe

111

MooreCleveland 83 Johnson

Cabarrus 10 J. BellWayne 95 Fraley

Iredell

60 Brockman*Guilford 47 Graham

Robeson 2 Yarborough*Person 1 Steinburg

Chowan75

LambethForsyth 19 Davis

New Hanover 84 R. TurnerIredell 89 Setzer

Catawba

58 Johnson*Guilford 30 Luebke

Durham 22 Brisson#Bladen

65

JonesRockingham

88

BryanMecklenburg 4 Dixon

Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn

Union

107

AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd

Cumberland 92 JeterMecklenburg 3 Speciale

Craven25

CollinsNash 59 Hardister

Guilford108

TorbettGaston 94 Elmore

Wilkes

56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell

Sampson 115 Ager*Buncombe

51

Salmon*Harnett

103

BrawleyMecklenburg 61 Faircloth

Guilford105

Schaffer (NR)Mecklenburg 79 Howard

Davie

24Farmer-

ButterfieldWilson

7 RichardsonFranklin 6 Tine (NR)

Dare64

RiddellAlamance 20 Catlin (NR)

New Hanover 52 BolesMoore 97 Saine

Lincoln

48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton

New Hanover 8 S. MartinWilson

116

B. Turner*Buncombe

112

HagerRutherford

117

McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson

McDowell

71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin

Wake 41 Adcock*Wake

35

MaloneWake

113

Whitmire (NR)Transylvania

120

West (NR)Cherokee 73 Zachary*

Yadkin

57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham

Lenoir 28 Langdon (NR)Johnston 80 Watford

Davidson

27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall

Wake *freshman **appointedNR = not running in 2016

90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley

Randolph

101

EarleMecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR)

Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill

Randolph

CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA

NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA22 HOUSE REPUBLICAN WINNERS

DISTRICT CVB INCUMBENT 2015 LBRHD 004 SR Jimmy Dixon 90.0HD 014 SR George G. Cleveland 75.0HD 019 SR Ted Davis, Jr. 90.0HD 061 SR John Faircloth 90.0HD 062 SR John M. Blust 79.2HD 063 LR Stephen Ross 92.5HD 064 LR Dennis Riddell 90.0HD 068 SR Craig Horn 85.5HD 075 SR Donny C Lambeth 90.0HD 076 SR Carl Ford 76.7HD 079 SR Julia Craven Howard 80.9HD 080 SR Sam Watford 90.0HD 085 SR Josh Dobson 95.0HD 089 SR Mitchell Setzer 77.5HD 096 SR Jay Adams 85.8HD 097 SR Jason R. Saine 90.5HD 098 SR John R. Bradford III 90.0HD 108 SR John A. Torbett 95.0HD 110 SR Kelly Hastings 90.0HD 111 SR Tim Moore 95.0HD 112 SR Mike Hager 95.0HD 117 SR Chuck McGrady 80.8

NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA

19 HOUSE DEMOCRAT WINNERS

DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBRHD 005 SD Howard J. Hunter III 43.2HD 012 SD George Graham 67.5HD 023 SD Shelly Willingham 31.1HD 029 SD Larry D. Hall 24.1HD 031 SD Mickey Michaux, Jr. 35.8HD 039 SD Darren Jackson 59.2HD 042 SD Marvin W. Lucas 73.0HD 043 SD Elmer Floyd 66.7HD 048 SD Garland E. Pierce 49.2HD 056 SD Verla Insko 19.1HD 057 SD Pricey Harrison 12.0HD 060 SD Cecil Brockman 67.5HD 066 SD Ken Goodman 92.5HD 071 SD Evelyn Terry 38.2HD 072 SD Ed Hanes Jr. 80.9HD 099 SD Rodney W. Moore 80.0HD 102 SD Becky Carney 63.3HD 106 SD Carla Cunningham 47.3HD 114 SD Susan C. Fisher 14.5

HOUSE INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY COMP & LEAN CVB RATINGS - 9 REP & 7 DEM

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBRHD 002 COMP -1,605 Larry Yarborough 85HD 008 COMP 1,861 Susan Martin 90HD 041 COMP 15,176 Gale Adcock 54.2HD 115 COMP 3,778 John Ager 50HD 119 COMP 1,119 Joe Sam Queen 48.3HD 044 LD 1,998 Billy Richardson 50HD 054 LD 5,531 Robert T. Reives II 50HD 001 LR 768 Bob Steinburg 92.5HD 003 LR 368 Michael Speciale 71.7HD 035 LR 14,184 Chris Malone 69.2HD 045 LR 2,902 John Szoka 90HD 049 LR 2,346 Gary Pendleton 66.8HD 065 LR -2,516 Bert Jones 85.8HD 118 LR 508 Michele D. Presnell 85.8HD 051 LR 5,706 Brad Salmon 76.7HD 116 LR 5,296 Brian Turner 63.3

HOUSE INCUMBENTS GENERAL ONLY – STRONG REP CVB RATING 18 REPUBLICANS

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBRHD 013 SR 2,265 Pat McElraft 95.0HD 010 SR 8,137 John R. Bell 92.5HD 015 SR 811 Phillip Shepard 90.0HD 016 SR 7,204 Chris W. Millis 81.7HD 025 SR 830 Jeff Collins 85.5HD 040 SR 13,125 Marilyn Avila 73.9HD 055 SR 683 Mark Brody 85.8HD 059 SR 5,676 Jon Hardister 81.7HD 069 SR 6,387 Dean Arp 90.8HD 070 SR 605 Pat B. Hurley 85.8HD 074 SR 1,963 Debra Conrad 85.8HD 078 SR 611 Allen McNeill 85.8HD 086 SR -161 Hugh Blackwell 85.5HD 088 SR 1,353 Rob Bryan 92.5HD 090 SR -737 Sarah Stevens 90.0HD 094 SR -729 Jeffrey Elmore 85.0HD 103 SR 6,714 Bill Brawley 90.5HD 109 SR 1,476 Dana Bumgardner 77.5

HOUSE INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY – STRONG DEM CVD RATING7 DEMOCRATS

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR

HD 007 SD -72 Bobbie J. Richardson 44.2

HD 011 SD 5,646 Duane Hall 54.2

HD 018 SD 4,737 Susi Hamilton 68.9

HD 030 SD 11,548 Paul Luebke 11.3

HD 034 SD 2,625 Grier Martin 29.1

HD 038 SD 9,300 Yvonne Lewis Holley 35.8

HD 050 SD 6,127 Graig R. Meyer 51.8

9 HOUSE DEMOCRAT INCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT GENERALALSO 2015 LBR

HD 021 SD -8 Larry M. Bell NO 62.5

HD 022 COMP 176 William Brisson NO 90.0

HD 024 SD 1,765 Jean Farmer-Butterfield NO 42.7

HD 027 SD -3,357 Michael H. Wray NO 80.0

HD 033 SD 8,249 Rosa U Gill NO 45.0

HD 047 SD 509 Charles Graham NO 55.8

HD 058 SD 1,995 Ralph C. Johnson NO 52.3

HD 101 SD 10,098 Beverly Miller Earle YES 45.0

HD 107 SD 8,900 Kelly Alexander NO 58.3

14 HOUSE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT GENERALALSO 2015 LBR

HD 017 SR 7,812 Frank Iler YES 90.0

HD 036 SR 6,399 Nelson Dollar YES 85.8

HD 052 SR 4,640 Jamie Boles NO 90.0

HD 053 LR 7,740 David R. Lewis YES 90.5

HD 067 SR -472 Justin P. Burr YES 81.7

HD 073 SR -437 Lee Zachary NO 95.0

HD 077 SR 140 Harry Warren NO 81.7

HD 082 SR 9,031 Larry G. Pittman YES 69.2

HD 083 SR 4,343 Linda P. Johnson YES 90.0

HD 084 SR 1,890 Rena W. Turner YES 90.0

HD 087 SR -1,545 George S. Robinson NO 87.5

HD 092 COMP 15,160 Charles Jeter YES 86.7

HD 093 LR 1,326 Jonathan C. Jordan YES 81.7

HD 095 SR 5,348 John A. Fraley NO 95.0

OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES

HD 006

TINE (U)COMP 238 90.0

Judy JusticeWarren Judge

Arthur WilliamsAshley WoolardBeverly Boswell

HD 020

CATLIN (R)SR 6,747 78.9

Holly Grange

Tammy Covil

HD 026

DAUGHTRY (R)SR 8,091 95.0

Dennis NielsenDonna McDowell White

Rich Nixon

HD 028

LANGDON (R)SR 4,368 85.8

Jimmie M. MassengillPatricia Oliver

Gregory A. DailLarry C. Strickland

Tony BraswellHD 032

B’VILLE (D)SD -1,692 40.8

Gary Lamont Miles SrTerri H. Campbell

Terry Garrison



HD 37

STAM (R)SR 12,046 85.8

Linda Hunt-Williams

Jonathan Graham

HD 46

WADDELL (D)SD -1,093 85.0

Brenden Jones

Tim Benton

Thomas (Tom) Howell Jr

HD 81

R. BROWN (R)SR 663 80.0

Larry W. Potts

Sharon Phillips Pearce

Tyler Lohr Forrest

HD 100

COTHAM (D)SD 1,692 59.3

Billy Maddalon

John Autry

HD 104

BISHOP (R) SR 1,417 85.0

Andy Dulin

Peter Noris

HD 105

SCHAFFER (R)SR 12,855 85.0

Scott Stone

Tim Morgan

Connie Green-Johnson



HD 113

WHITMIRE (R)SR 757 90.0

Cody Henson

Coty James Ferguson

Maureen Mahan Copelof

HD 120

WEST (R)SR -573 95.0

Elliott J. Southworth

Kevin Corbin

*HD 9

B. BROWN (R)LR 3,747 90.0

Brian FarkasWalter E. Gaskins

Greg Murphy*

*HD 91

H’WAY (R)SR 1,050 85.8

Ira (Bubba) Tilley

Kyle Hall*

Robert Knight

CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)

28 RobinsonGuilford

21 ClarkHoke

19 MeredithCumberland

8 RabonBrunswick

50 DavisMacon

24 GunnAlamance

39

Rucho (NR)Mecklenburg

40 Waddell*Mecklenburg

5 DavisGreene

1 CookBeaufort

9 Lee*New Hanover

46 DanielBurke

47 HiseMitchell

31

KrawiecForsyth

38 FordMecklenburg

13 Smith*Robeson

25 McInnis*Richmond

15 Alexander*Wake

27 WadeGuilford

2 SandersonPamlico

44

CurtisLincoln

14 BlueWake

23 FousheeOrange

18 BarefootWake

10 B. JacksonSampson

11Newton

(NR)Wilson

45 Soucek (NR)Watauga

35

TuckerUnion

20 McKissickDurham

22 WoodardDurham

12 RabinHarnett

6 BrownOnslow

48 Apodaca (NR)Henderson

42

Wells*Catawba

4 BryantNash

37 J. JacksonMecklenburg

17 BarringerWake

41 TarteMecklenburg

36 Hartsell (NR)Cabarrus

33

Bingham (NR)Davidson

3Smith-

Ingram*Edgecombe

16 Stein (NR)Wake

26 BergerRockingham

43 HarringtonGaston

30

RandlemanWilkes

32 Lowe*Forsyth

49Van

Duyn*Buncombe

*freshmanNR = not running in 2016

7 PateWayne

34 BrockDavie

29

TillmanRandolph

9 SENATE REPUBLICAN WINNERSDISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR

SD 06 SR Harry Brown 95.0SD 07 SR Louis M. Pate Jr. 95.0SD 08 LR Bill Rabon 85.9SD 10 LR Brent Jackson 95.0SD 26 SR Phil Berger 95.0SD 29 SR Jerry W. Tillman 90.0SD 34 SR Andrew C Brock 85.8SD 42 SR Andy Wells 90.0SD 43 SR Kathy Harrington 90.0

4 SENATE DEMOCRAT WINNERSDISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR

SD 03 SD Erica Smith-Ingram 47.8SD 05 SD Don Davis 48.3SD 14 SD Dan Blue 55.0SD 32 SD Paul Lowe Jr. 45.0

NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEM

16 SENATE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBRSD 01 COMP 1,165 Bill Cook 80.0SD 02 SR 3,151 Norman Sanderson 90.0SD 09 LR 13,579 Michael Lee 90.0SD 12 LR 15,450 Ronald Rabin 90.0SD 15 LR 16,411 John Alexander 65.0SD 17 LR 27,427 Tamara Barringer 80.0SD 18 COMP 16,934 Chad Barefoot 90.0SD 19 COMP 5,560 Wesley Meredith 78.9SD 24 SR 4,950 Rick Gunn 95.0SD 25 COMP -2,603 Tom McInnis 90.0SD 27 SR 9,258 Trudy Wade 90.0SD 30 SR -2,189 Shirley Randleman 90.0SD 41 SR 28,598 Jeff Tarte 90.0SD 46 SR -2,428 Warren Daniel 80.5SD 47 SR -1,473 Ralph Hise 85.8SD 50 SR 865 Jim Davis 87.5

7 SENATE DEMOCRAT INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR

SD 13 SD -553 Jane W. Smith 54.2

SD 20 SD 9,597 Floyd B. McKissick, Jr. 32.5

SD 22 SD 14,891 Mike Woodard 52.3

SD 23 SD 11,812 Valerie P. Foushee 37.2

SD 28 SD 7,432 Gladys A. Robinson 28.6

SD 37 SD 15,790 Jeff Jackson 38.2

SD 49 SD 8,910 Terry Van Duyn 45.0

3 SENATE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY

DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT GENERALALSO

2015 LBR

SD 31 SR 5,819 Joyce Krawiec NO 85.8

SD 35 SR 16,584 Tommy Tucker NO 90.8

SD 44 SR 8,165 David L. Curtis YES 90.0

4 SENATE DEMOCRATS FACING A PRIMARY

SD 04 SD -3,495 Angela R. Bryant YES 45.0

SD 21 SD 5,996 Ben Clark YES 77.5

SD 38 SD 22,663 Joel Ford YES 70.0

SD 40 SD 12,219 Joyce Waddell YES 35.8

OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATEDISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES

SD 11

NEWTON (R)

SR

4,638

79.4

Benton SawreyRick HornerAlbert Pacer

SD 16

STEIN (D)SD 17,905

40.0

Jay ChaudhuriEllis HankinsEric Weaver

SD 33

BINGHAM (R)SR

791

85.8

Cathy DunnJoe D. KennedyEddie Gallimore

Jim Beall Graham

SD 36

HARTSELL (R)SR 14,784

85.5

Andrew W. PlatekRobert Brown

Amy BlakeParish Moffitt

Paul R. NewtonScott C. Aumuller

OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE


SD 39

RUCHO (R)

SR

13,641 83.0

Lloyd Scher

Dan Bishop

SD 45

SOUCEK (R)SR -519 85.0

Deanna Ballard

Ken Boham

Art Sherwood

SD 48

APODACA (R)SR 7,675

95.0

Chuck Edwards

Dennis Justice

Lisa Carpenter Baldwin

Norman Bossert

Partisan Composition & CVBNC General Assembly &

Congressional DelegationStrong REP

Lean REP COMP Lean

DEMStrong DEM

NC House74 – 45 – 1 59 14 11 2 34NC Senate

34 – 16 24 6 4 0 16US

Congress10 – 3

7 3 0 0 3

NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive

Suburbs = battleground

2016 = $100+ million in outside spending

Gets ugly quick, stays ugly

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor

Cooper

Victory

Strong US Senate

Candidate

Presidential

Candidate Fights for

NC Functioning NC Dem

Party

McCrory

Victory

Voters Positive on

NC Economy

Parity in Outside $ Enthusias

m for Presidenta

l Candidate

NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Exec Branch

GOV

Roy Cooper $3MKen Spaulding $50K

Lon Cecil

Pat McCrory 56.62% $2.4M

Robert Brawley C. K. Moss

LT GOV

Linda Coleman $48K Holly Jones

Robert Wilson $6K Ron Newton

JJSummerel

lDan Forest 50.08%

($247K)

AG OPEN

Sen. Josh Stein $1.1MMarcus W. Williams

Sen. Buck Newton $200KJim O’Neill $94K

INS Wayne Goodwin 51.9% $360K

Mike CauseyRon Pierce

Joe McLaughlinAUD Beth Wood 53.71% $27K Chuck Stuber

SOS Elaine Marshall 53.79% $35K AJ Daoud Michael LaPagliaLAB Charles Meeker $15K Cherie Berry 53.26%

$15K

AGR Walter Smith

Steve Troxler 53.22% $7K

Andy Stevens

SPI

June Atkinson 54.24% $9KHenry J. Pankey

Mark Johnson $105KRosemary Stein J.Wesley

SillsST OPE)

Ron Elmer Dan Blue III Dale Folwell

% =

201

2 re

sults

($) =

cas

h on

han

d as

of J

une

30, 2

015

2016 Election: State Supreme Court

Voters will cast their ballot to to determine whether to

retain Justice Robert H. Edmunds(Guilford)

Linda H. Stephens - D1st Term (Wake)

Phil Berger, Jr.Orange - REP

Bob Hunter - R1st Term [2014]

(Guilford)

Abe JonesWake – DEM

Richard Dietz - R1st Term (Forsyth)

Vince RozierWake – DEM

Valerie Zachary - R1st Term [2015]

(Yadkin)

Rickye McKoy-MitchellMecklenburg – DEM

2016 Election: Court of Appeals


Questions?

Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]

(919) 614-0520

www.ncfef.org

@ncfef

NCFEF

Primary election briefing presentation

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