2014-based National Population Projections Paul Vickers Office for National Statistics 2 December 2015 Key points UK population at mid million Projected to grow by: 4.4 million over the next decade to 69.0 million 9.7 million over the next 25 years to 74.3 million Projected to reach 70 million by 2027 UK population projected to continue ageing Long-term assumptions for UK Fertility: Completed family size 1.89 children per woman Mortality: life expectancy at birth 84.1 years for men and 86.9 years for women in year to mid-2039 Net migration: annual net migration +185,000 per year How are the projections produced? Base - mid-2014 population estimates Assumptions about the future fertility, mortality and migration Projections, not forecasts. Assumptions take no account of new or future Government policies Variant projections as well as principal projection differing assumptions How are the projections produced? NPP Committee ONS, devolved administrations and Home Office Sign-off decisions on assumptions etc Expert advisory panel advise on demographic trends through questionnaire and meeting NPP Consultations England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland consult with users Fertility Formulated in terms of completed family size (CFS) Average number of children that women born in particular years will have Cohort measure more stable than period measure of total fertility rate (TFR) Fertility assumptions *CFS relates to cohort born 30 years earlier 30 years being roughly the mean age at childbearing. Projected CFS is given for cohorts who have not yet completed childbearing. Fertility assumptions UK long-term assumption same as based at 1.89 children per woman UK short-term assumptions started from a lower base and assumed lower levels of fertility than those used in 2012-based projections UK Fertility assumptions Mortality assumptions Rates of mortality improvement assumed to converge to a common rate of 1.2 per cent per year for most ages at 2039, and to continue to improve at that constant rate thereafter Higher rates of improvement assumed for those born between 1925 and 1938 as this cohort has consistently shown higher rates of mortality improvement over the last 25 years More information on mortality later Mortality assumptions Migration Assumed levels of migration based on past trends, NOT future policy International migration to/from countries of the UK International Migration Demographic challenges Sustained and continuing population growth The ageing population baby boomers leaving working age population combined with increasing life expectancy Geographically uneven population growth Migration leading to increased population diversity 14 Population growth UK Population, 1971 to 2039 Projected Components of UK population change UK population projected to rise by 9.7 million by mid-2039, of which: 49% natural increase (more births than deaths) 51% net migration However, future numbers of births and deaths partly dependent on future migration 68% of projected population change over the next 25 years either directly or indirectly due to assumed future net migration Components of population change, UK Principal and Variant Projections, UK Population ageing UK population pyramid, UK population pyramid, 201 The ageing population Age groupEstimate 2014 (m) Projection 2039 (m) Growth: Children % Working age % Pensionable age % 75 and over % 85 and over % 100 and over % The ageing population Population aged 65+ projected to increase by 58% by 2039 Population aged 85+ projected to increase by 137% by 2039 Population aged to increase by 4.8% Dependency ratio is increasing. Increases in state pension age to mitigate this Encouraging older people to remain in work Consider the effect of international migration 23 The ageing population Old age dependency ratio: Number of people of state pensionable age (SPA) for every 1000 people of working age Projected to increase from 310 in mid-2014 to 370 in mid-2039 UK Old Age Dependency Ratio thousands UK Old Age Dependency Ratio thousands UK Old Age Dependency Ratio thousands High/low mig 65+EstimatesPrincipal (65+)Principal (66+) Principal (67+)Policy (67 by 2028)Principal (68+) Dependencyratio (dependants/working age*1000) Dependency ratio: change over time under different scenarios : : : : : 666 The effect of net migration, UK, 2039 Natural change/migration inter- dependence International migrants are often young adults Young adults are fertile Net inflows lead to an increase in births, net outflows a decrease (potentially) Thousands Uk born motherNon UK born mother Understanding uncertainty in population projections ,000 1, Thousands Age Variant range, Population estimatePrincipal projection 2039Zero net migration Geographical patterns 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% Change between 2012 and 2037 English regionsEnglandWalesScotlandNorthern Ireland Projected population growth (%) for countries and regions of the UK 33 London North East Migration and diversity Population born outside UK = 5.3m in 2004; 8.3m in 2014 Gross immigration = 6.5m Projected gross immigration = 5.5m = 13.3m Ethnic composition of population, England and Wales, Source: 2001 Census, Office for National Statistics Ethnic composition of population by age, England and Wales, Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics European comparison Based on projections produced by Eurostat UK population is 3 rd largest in EU in 2014 Germany and France currently higher There are 3 countries in EU28 projected to grow faster over 25 years to 2039 Luxembourg, Belgium, Sweden By 2039 UK projected as 2 nd largest in EU Only Germany projected to be higher Contacts Population Projections Unit:Tel: Latest population statistics on Questions Extra slides Press coverage Press coverage continued UK Population, 1912 to 2012 UK Population, 1912 to 2037 Actual and projected births & deaths, United Kingdom Actual and projected components of change, 19942039, UK Estimated and assumed TFR, 1973 to 2039, UK constituent countries Accuracy of past projections