2014-02-17 Signatur A web-based tool to test Current and Future perspectives in Air Pollution...

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A web-based tool to test Current and Future perspectives in Air Pollution

Forward-Looking Information in Environment AssessmentCopenhagen May 19-20, 2008

a model tool for the assessment of air pollution levels close to roads

presented byLars Gidhagen Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

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Outline

1. The model tool – components and use

2. National study PM10 and NO2: Emissions and ambient air levels 2004 and 2020 (study realized Nov 2006 – May 2007)

3. National study PM2.5: Expected change in ambient air levels 2010 to 2020 (study realized Jan – Apr 2008)

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EU directive has far reaching consequences for Swedish municipalities

PM10 90-percentile

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

LONDON

LONDON

LONDON

HELSINKI

GLASGOW

CHARLEROI

LONDON

MÏNCHEN

MÏNCHEN

ZÜRICH

BREMEN

MÏNCHEN

MÏNCHEN

MÏNCHEN

PRAHA

LONDON

DARMSTADT

BERLIN

ZÜRICH

PRAHA

BERLIN

MADRID

MADRID

ROSLAGSVÄGEN

BERLIN

MADRID

E4 SOLLENTUNA

MADRID

BRATISLAVA

LISBOA

VALHALLAVÄGEN

PRAHA

PRAHA

PRAHA

PRAHA

MADRID

NORRLANDSG

PESCARA

ESSINGELEDEN

MADRID

SVEAVÄGEN

HORNSGATAN

UG/M3

AirBase:>700 sites19 countriesCAFE-PM, 2003

1. Model tool – components and use

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Not sufficient to simulate the impact of local traffic!

Regional(LRT)

Urban Local(roadside)

SO2

NO2

PM10

CO

O3 negative negative

benzene

Regional(LRT)

Urban Local(roadside)

SO2

NO2

PM10

CO

O3 negative negative

benzene

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Component 1: Road and traffic data - National Road Database (NVDB) - traffic counts and traffic simulation model EMME2 - emission factor model ARTEMISDelivered by the Swedish Road Administration

Concept: put together national information on roads, traffic, emissions and weather, add dispersion models - with annual updating of the databases

Component 2: Pre-calculated hourly background levels - EMEP expert emissions + SMHI MATCH model + some O3 & PM10 monitoring data => Regional background - Swedish 1x1 km emissions from SMED consortium + SIMAIR Urban model => Urban background contributionDelivered by SMHI

Component 3: Web-based user interface with online local models - open road dispersion model for countryside roads - street canyon model (OSPM) for streets with buildings nearby - reports and outputs with statistics for comparison with Env. NormsDelivered and operated by SMHI

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Present use of the system

Development funded by Swedish EPA + Swedish Road Administration

Clients:- Approximately 100 municipalities- the 7 regional road administration districts- some consultant companies that works with EIAs- universities (as part of their training and capacity building)

Uses (external clientes): - assess compliance of Env. Norms (identify problematic street environments where measurements are needed)- determine consequences of future projects- assess emissions and AQ levels in residential areas with wood stoves (a third local model has been included in the SIMAIR system)

Uses (through SMHI):- national assessments of present and future emissions and AQ levels- national assessments of exposure for health assessments (using the third local model)


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Example from Norrköping

PM10 90-percentil> 50 µg/m3

40-50 µg/m3

35-40 µg/m3

30-35 µg/m3

<35 µg/m3

Norrköpings kommunMiljö- och hälsoskyddskontoretRobert Sandsveden

Satisfactorily similarity betweenmeasurements and model output.

Action plan PM10 (in Swedish)http://www.norrkoping.se/trafik/partikelhalter/


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PM10

Jämförelse mellan mätta och beräknade statistiska haltmått av PM10 (µg/m3) definierade i miljökvalitetsnormen. Jämförelsen görs för sex olika gator i fyra olika städer i Sverige nämligen Sundsvall, Uppsala, Stockholm och Malmö. Streckad linje visar miljökvalitetsnormens kvalitetskrav för modellberäkningar (baserat på årsmedelvärde) på +/- 50 %.

Evaluation against measurements


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Regional contributions (Europe)

SMHI MATCH calculation for EURODELTA 2020 could be used- EMEP expert emissions 2000 and 2020(original delta 2000-2020 corrected to 2004-2020)

Reference year 2004- EMEP expert emissions 2003 used (2004 not available)- meteorology for 2004 used also for 2020

2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

Table Present limit values and environmental obectives for 2010

NO2 PM10

Average Limit valueobjective 2010

4020

4020

90-perc daily Limit valueobjective 2010

--

5035

98-perc daily Limit valueobjective 2010

60-

--

98-perc hourly Limit valueobjective 2010

9060

--

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- Annual averages: decrease northwards- Daily 90-percentiles: Large variability everywhere

PM10 levels 2004 in rural areas


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

40

10

1

40

11

1

40

12

1

40

13

1

40

21

0

40

22

0

40

30

1

40

31

1

40

32

1

40

33

1

40

41

0

40

42

0

40

43

0

40

51

0

40

52

0

40

53

0

40

60

9

40

61

9

40

62

9

40

70

9

40

71

9

40

72

9

40

80

8

40

81

8

40

82

8

40

90

7

40

91

7

40

92

7

41

00

7

41

01

7

41

02

7

41

10

6

41

11

6

41

12

6

41

20

6

41

21

6

41

22

6

Vavihill Aspvreten VindelnRural measurements

Winter half-year PM10 2002-2003, Ambio (2005)

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2004 2020

PM10 Regional contribution2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

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2004 2020

NO2 Regional contribution2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

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Urban and local contributions:

- Swedish traffic emissions

Northern

Sweden

Southern

Sweden

Fuel costs:

0,972020

0,842001

SEK/kmYear

0,972020

0,842001

SEK/kmYear

Estimated income change 2001 – 2020: 1,33Change public transport: 2001 – 2020: 1,36

Traffic work (million veh,km/year) • SIMAIR has 85-90% of traffic

work on individual road links, 10-15% (small roads) as area sources

• SMED report to CLRTAP based on top-down estimations

• ARTEMIS emission factors

• spatial distribution for vehicular traffic from SIMAIR

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Emissions from Swedish Environmental

Emission Data (SMED)Emissioner PM10 (ton/år)

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

traf avgassjöfart

småsk.uppvärm.övrigt

Navigation Small scale heating Other

% av max

Traffic

Only exhaust particles,no wear particles included


PM10 emissions 2004(national total):

trafictraffi

c

navi

gatio

nsm

all s

cale

heat

ing

othe

r

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The source profile for PM emissions varies

considerably from city to city

www.luftkvalitet.se Nationell presentation av emissioner och halter. SMHI-rapport 2007


traffic exhaustwood stovesnavigationenergy/industrytraffic wear

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Swedish emissions:

- overall changes 2004 - 2020

traffic exhaust

wood stovesnavigationenergy/industry

PM10NOx tons/yeartons/year

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2004 2020

PM10 Urban background (annual average)2. PM10 and NO2 levels 2004 and 2020

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2004 2020

NO2 annual average street level

• A considerably improvement expected

• However, SIMAIR has been shown to underestimate NO2 levels in the Norther part of Sweden (due to wintertime inversions)


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2004 2020

PM10 annual average levels• (Scenario based on continued use of studded tyres)

• A small improvement expected, but levels still in the vicinity of the limit value


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2004 2020

PM10 daily 90-percentiles

• (Scenario based on continued use of studded tyres)

• No significant improvement


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3. PM2.5 levels in 2010 and 2020

PM2.5: Regional contributions (Europe)

SMHI MATCH calculation with IIASA emission scenarios(Amann et al., 2004) for 2020:- CLECLIM: ”Current legislation” with 20 €/ton CO2 after 2010

- D23LOW: CAFÉ scenario ”Low ambition” (cost 6 billion €/year) - MFRDEEP: ”Maximum feasible” with 90 €/ton CO2 after 2010

Reference year 2010:- CLECLIM without 20 €/ton CO2

Meteorology:- 1999 for all scenarios

Not included in MATCH simulations:- Sea salt, secondary organics, resuspended dust and contributions from forest fires

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Reductions in regional PM2.5

Station CLECLIM D23LOW MFRDEEP Vavihill -1.0 -2.0 -3.7 Rörvik -0.8 -1.7 -3.3

Aspvreten -0.5 -0.9 -2.0 Vindeln -0.2 -0.3 -0.8

Calculated change in regional background levels 2010-2020 (µg/m3)

• Measured regional PM2.5 levels are in the range 8.5-13 µg/m3 => exposure reduction of 10% will be needed

• The 10% reduction in PM2.5 levels is likely to be fulfilled just due to expected LRT changes, except for in the northermost part of Sweden

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Reductions in local PM2.5 emissions - response to four scenarios for studded tyres

Current percentagesof studded tyres

90

75

74

30

0 10 20 30 40 50

Malmö

Göteborg

Stockholm

Umeå

Emission factor (mg/veh,km)

2004

2020 conserved % studded tyres

2020 30% studded tyres2020 0% studded tyres

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Reductions in local PM2.5 contributions - response to four scenarios for studded tyres

0

2

4

6

8

PM

2.5

[µ

g/m

3]

UmeåVästra Esplanaden

StockholmHornsgatan

GöteborgGårda

Malm öAm iralsgatan

Scenario 2: Å r 2020, inga förändringar vad gä ller dubbdäck

Scenario 1: Nuläge, m otsvarande år 2004

Scenario 3: Å r 2020, andelar dubbdäck i hela landet är 30%

Scenario 4: Å r 2020, inga dubbdäck

• Possible to reduce local PM2.5 contributions with more than half, by reducing the use of studded tyres to around 30%

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Thank you for your attention!

2014-02-17 Signatur A web-based tool to test Current and Future perspectives in Air Pollution...

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