07 Air pollution (Guy Hutton) - Copenhagen Consensus Center · 2016. 8. 15. · Air Pollution Guy...
Transcript of 07 Air pollution (Guy Hutton) - Copenhagen Consensus Center · 2016. 8. 15. · Air Pollution Guy...
Air Pollution
Guy Hutton, PhD
DSI Development Solutions Internationalguy.hutton@dev-sol-
int.com
Swiss Centre for International Health,
Swiss Tropical InstituteBasel, Switzerland
13.03.2007 2
Presentation Overview
• The problem
• The range of solutions
• The costs of selected solutions
• The benefits of selected solutions
• Benefit-cost ratios
• Interpretation of results
• Issues in scaling up the solutions
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The problem: introduction
• Suspended particulate matter (dust, soot, fumes, mist, smoke, liquid droplets), gaseous pollutants (lead, SO2, NO2, O3, CO), odours
• Transportation, energy generation, industrial operations, processing industries, domestic cooking & heating
• Air pollution impactsHuman and animal health (respiratory, heart)Buildings and materialsAgricultural productionBiodiversityVisibilityGreenhouse gases
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The problem: causes
• Household use of biomass for cooking and heatingOpen fires or traditional stoves Conditions of low combustion efficiency, poor ventilation
• Problem more in rural areas (biomass)Also other "modern" indoor air pollutants (e.g. sick-building syndrome)And environmental tobacco smoke, exposure to chemicals or gases in indoor workplaces
• “Rule of 1000”: pollutant released indoors is 1000 times more likely to reach people’s lungs than one released outdoors
Indoor air
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The problem: causes
• Combustion of petroleum products or coal Motor vehicles, industry, power generationMainly around cities and industrial areas
• Associated with advancing economic development• Implies also a corresponding underdevelopment
Affording technologies that reduce pollutionSubsidizing public transport schemesEnforcing regulations
Outdoor air
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The problem: the numbers
• > 3 billion people depend on solid fuels
• In rural areas, unimproved domestic fuels account for 66% (WPR) to >85% households (SSA & SEA)
• > 1.5 million annual deaths attributed to solid fuel use within the home
• 1.5 billion pop. breathe air > WHO standard
• 800,000 annual deaths65% in developing Asia
• 0.6% - 1.4% disease burden in LDCs
• Lead pollution contributes further 0.9%
• Omits air pollution from forest fires and industrial or nuclear accidents
Indoor air Outdoor air
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Akimoto HGlobal Air Quality and PollutionScience, 2003
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Global mean tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) 01/2003 – 06/2004. University of Heidelberg.
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Air pollution in the MDGs
• Health goals 4, 5 and 6• Environmental sustainability goal 7 • Gender equality goal 3• Overall poverty rates goal 1
Indoor Air
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The solutions: indoor air
• Reducing the source of pollutionImproved cooking devices Cleaner burning fuelReduced need for fire
• Altering the living environmentVentilation Kitchen design Stove placement
• Alter user behaviourFuel dryingStove and chimney maintenanceUse of pot lids to conserve heatKeep children away from the smoke
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Costs and benfits of the solution
• Few cost-benefit studies of indoor air pollution interventions
• One study by WHO evaluated global and regional costs and benefits of selected indoor air pollution interventions:
Solid fuels to LPG or ethanolImproved stoves
All evaluated for MDG target and universal access, also with a separate pro-poor analysisThis presentation shows the MDG analysis
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Total costs of solutions (US$ m)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B
US$
mill
ions
LPG
Global annual cost = 23.6 billion US$Global annual cost = 23.6 billion US$
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Total costs of solutions (US$ m)
Stove
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B
US$
mill
ions
Global annual cost = 2.3 billion US$Global annual cost = 2.3 billion US$
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Net costs of solutions (US$ m)
LPG
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-B
SEAR-D
WPR-B
US$
mill
ions
Global annual net cost = 13.1 billion US$Global annual net cost = 13.1 billion US$
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Net costs of solutions (US$ m)
Stove
-16000
-14000
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0AFR-D AFR-E AMR-B AMR-D EMR-B EMR-D EUR-B EUR-C SEAR-
BSEAR-
DWPR-B
US$
mill
ions
Global annual net cost = Global annual net cost = --34.4 billion US$34.4 billion US$
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Total benefits of solutions (%)
Time savings45%
Environment6%
Fuel10%
Health care0%
Morbidity1%
Mortality38%
LPG
Global annual benefit = 101 billion US$Global annual benefit = 101 billion US$
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Total benefits of solutions (%)
Mortality10%
Morbidity0%
Health care0%
Fuel26%
Environment2%
Time savings62%
Stove
Global annual benefit = 141 billion US$Global annual benefit = 141 billion US$
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Benefit-cost ratios: LPG
DALY= US$1,000
DALY= US$5,000
Value Productivity& VOSL
02468
10
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
02468
10
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
02468
10
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
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Benefit-cost ratios: stove
DALY= US$1,000
DALY= US$5,000
Value Productivity& VOSL
020406080
100120
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
020406080
100120
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
020406080
100120
AFR-D AFR-E AMR-D EMR-D SEAR-B SEAR-D WPR-B World
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One-way sensitivity analysis
AFR-DRegion
LPG 0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1. Stov
e cos
ts & ef
ficien
cy2.
Fuel p
rices
3. Hea
lth im
pacts
4. Valu
e of ti
me (all p
opulat
ion)
5. Valu
e of ti
me (chil
dren o
nly)
6. Tim
e valu
e (ad
ults a
nd chil
dren d
ifferen
tly)
7. Tim
e sav
ings8.
Tree co
st
10. G
HG emiss
ions
11. E
mission
s eco
nomic
value
12. D
iscou
nt rat
e
Bene
fit-C
ost R
atio
LowBase caseHigh
Outdoor Air
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The solutions: outdoor air
• Remove pollution at its sourceFewer vehicle kilometers traveled
• Reduce need to travel• Switch to public transport or car pooling
Less fuel use per vehicle km traveled • Lighter vehicles • More efficient engine
Less pollution per unit of fuel used • Switch to cleaner fuel• Catalytic converter
• Filtering pollution away from the source (chimneys, re-location)
- e.g. transport
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The solutions: outdoor air
• Policy optionsIllegal to use a polluting fuel or substance (e.g. bans on leaded gasoline or asbestos) Increase the costs of using polluting fuels (polluter pays principle – fuel tax or road tax)Disseminate information on best practices
• Less polluting technologies • Fuel efficiency• Changing behaviour
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Costs and benfits of the solution
• Considerable diversity of studies in literatureNational versus city-level studiesComprehensive air pollution control versus single regulatory measuresSingle versus multiple pollutant interventionsIndustry-wide versus single industry measures
• Interventions presented focus mainly on fuel switching or technological solutions
• Studies mainly from developed countries
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:
1. US Federal Regulations
• Policy National emissions standards for hazardous air pollutants
• Scope Country-wide• Year 1994-2004• Cost US$15 - US$17 billion annually • Benefit Health
US$41 - US$218 billion annually• BCR 2.72 - 13.0
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:
2. United States EPA Clean Air Act
• Policy Clean Air Act• Scope Country-wide• Year 1990 - 2010• Cost US$19 billion annually in 2000
Rising to US$27 billion annually in 2010 • Benefit Health, crop damage, visibility
US$71 billion annually in 2000Rising to US$110 billion annually
• BCR 3.8
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:
3. European clean air targets
• Policy Reductions in emissions to meet air quality targets for CO, heavy metals, ozone, hydrocarbons
• Scope Europe-wide • Cost Euro 7 billion annually• Benefit Mortality, morbidity, hospital admissions
(from PM and ozone)Euro 42 billion annually
• BCR 6.0
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:
4. UK Air Quality Strategy review
• Policy 17 policy measures to achieve AQS• Scope Country-wide• Year 2005 - 2020• Cost £374 - £866 million annually • Benefit Health
£566 - £2021 million annually • BCR 0.9 – 3.8
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:
5. China natural gas project
• Policy Substituting natural gas for coal in residential and commercial uses
• Scope Beijing and Chongqing• Year 1998 - 2018• Cost Capital investment – year 0
Beij. 3.5 bn RBM; Chong. 0.7 bn RMB • Benefit Health – annual figures
Beij. 2.1 bn RBM; Chong. 4.9 bn RMB • NPV Beij: 6.9 bn RMB; Chong: 18.6 bn RMB• IRR Beij: 29%; Chong: 75%
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:
6. Shanghai Emission Control
• Policy Emissions control in power and industry• Scope Shanghai • Year 2010-2020 • Cost Power: US$395 million annually
Industry: US$94 million annually • Benefit Mortality, morbidity, work days (PM10)
Power: US$417 million annually Industry: US$266 million annually
• BCR 2.0 (power) and 5.4 (industry)
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:
7. Japan sulphur emissions control
• Policy Comparing SO2 emissions control in 3
policy epochs • Scope Country-wide• Year 1968-73; 1974-1983; 1984-93• Cost (1) 5,576 bn Yen; (2) 15,991 bn Yen
(3) 9,354 bn Yen • Benefit Morbidity, work days
(1) 30,058 bn Yen; (2) 18,818 bn Yen; (3) 3,854 bn Yen
• BCR (1) 5.39; (2) 1.18; (3) 0.41
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Outdoor air pollution control case studies:
Other studies presenting BCRs
• Air pollution reductions in Hungary: 3.0 – 17.0
• Emissions reductions in the oil extraction industry in Kazakhstan: 5.7
• Nitric oxide and NO2 emissions reductions in Tokyo (1974 to 1993): 6.0
• Pollution control programme in Canada: 3.0
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Interpreting the results
• Outdoor air pollution studies estimate mainly health-related costs, omitting
Quality of life indicatorsMaterial damage and costs of cleaning upAgricultural productionBiodiversityGlobal environment
• Large uncertainties in health impact estimations• Economic results highly dependent on valuation
techniques – e.g. value of life
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Scaling up the solutions
• Priority settingMultiple factors influence decision makers
• FinancingCost savings make some interventions attractiveEnvironmental benefits are externalities
• Other issuesRegulations need to be respected (policing costs)Access to markets and technologies