2013 Central Texas Education Profile

© 2013 E3 Alliance

2013 CENTRAL TEXAS EDUCATION PROFILE

Made possible throughthe investment of the

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Education Profile• The most comprehensive regional view of

education trends and outcomes in the state, including data and information about: Early childhood education K-12 enrollment, attendance, and student achievement High school graduation College and career readiness Higher Education enrollment, persistence, and

completion

• Available for download at E3Alliance.org

2

© 2013 E3 Alliance

E3 Alliance Scope of Work

3

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Overview

• Central Texas Economic Profile• PK-12 and Higher Education Enrollment Profile• Outcome data presentations and discussion

1. Changes in PK-12 Enrollment

2. High School Graduation and Attendance

3. Higher Education Enrollment, Persistence and Completion

4

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Economic Profile

5

© 2013 E3 Alliance

More Adults in Central Texas Have Some College Experience or Have Obtained a College Degree

Less than High Scho

ol 14%

High School Graduate 22%

Some College 20%

College Grad-uate 44%

2007

Educational Attainment of Adults Age 25 and OlderLess than High School

12%


Some College 22%

College Grad-uate 46%

2011

6Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2007 and 2011, 3-year estimates

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Higher Levels of Education in Central Texas Than in TexasEducational Attainment of Adults Age 25 and Older, 2011

7

Less than High School 12%


Some College 22%

College Graduate 46%

Central Texas

Less than High School 19%


Some College 23%

College Graduate 32%

Texas

Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011, 3-year estimates

© 2013 E3 Alliance

The Majority of Adults Without a High School Diploma in Central Texas are

Hispanic

8Source: American Community Survey, 2011, 3-Year Estimates

Black

4%Other 3%

White75%

Hispanic11%

Asian

8%

College Graduate

Black5%

Other23%

White12%

Hispanic57%

Asian3%

Less Than High School

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Texans Without a High School Diploma Hit Soonest and Hardest During Recession

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

2

4

6

8

10

12Texas Unemployment Rates for Adults Age 25 and Older,

by Educational Attainment

Less than High School High School GraduateSome College or Associate's Bachelor's or Higher

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

9Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics-Geographic Profile of Employment and Unemployment, 2003-2012

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Median Income Increases Dramatically with Higher Levels of Education

Less Than High School

High School Graduate

Some College or Associate's

Degree

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate or Professional

Degree

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$19,657

$27,676

$34,953

$50,361

$64,715

Median Income by Educational Attainment for Adults Age 25 and Older, Central Texas, 2011

10Source: American Community Survey, 2011, 5-Year Estimates

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Education and Health: Largest Industryin Central Texas

11

Education & Health Svcs.; 23%

Trade, Transport. & Utili-ties; 19%

Prof., Business & Other Svcs.; 15%

Leisure & Hospitality Group; 12%

Public Administration; 7%

Manufacturing; 6%

Financial Activities Group; 6%

Construction, 5%

Other Services; 4%

Information; 3%

Natural Resources & Min-ing; 1%

Percentage Employed by Industry, 4Q 2012

Source: Texas Workforce Commission: County Narrative Profile

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Education and Health, Professional Business Services, and Hospitality

Industries Project Growth

12

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Government

Trade, Transport, & Utilities

Information

Construction

Natural Resources & Mining

Leisure & Hospitality Group

Professional Business Services

Education & Health

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

12%

15%

16%

17%

19%

19%

22%

29%

29%

32%

Projected Change in Central Texas Employment, by Industry 2010-2020

Change in EmploymentSource: Texas Workforce Commission: TRACER Industry Projections

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Education and Health, Professional Business Services, and Hospitality

Industries Project Growth

13

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

Government

Trade, Transport, & Utilities

Information

Construction

Natural Resources & Mining

Leisure & Hospitality Group

Professional Business Services

Education & Health

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

12%

15%

16%

17%

19%

19%

22%

29%

29%

32%

Projected Change in Central Texas Employment, by Industry 2010-2020

Change in EmploymentSource: Texas Workforce Commission: TRACER Industry Projections

© 2013 E3 Alliance

PK-12 and Higher Education Enrollment Profile

14

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Income Eligible Children In Early Education

3 year olds 4 year olds0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

10%

8%

79%

12%

79%

ISD Pre-K Child Care Center Pre-K Head Start Not in Formal Care

Per

cen

t o

f P

re-K

Eli

gib

le C

hil

dre

n

3 year old estimates are based on data in 5 County MSA, using ACS 2011 Child Population data, Child Care Subsidy Reports (2012), Head Start Enrollment (2011-2012), and Survey of Regional Pre-K Programs conducted by ESC 13 (2012). 4 year old estimates are based on a sample from E3 analysis of Ready, Set, K! weighted data – for entire E3 Region (2010-2011)

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Nearly Half of Central Texas Students and Just Over Half of Texas Students Are

Hispanic

Black 8%

Asian 4%

Hispanic 46%

White 38%

Central Texas

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Texas Education Agency AEIS data

Black 13%

Asian 4%

Hispanic 51%

White 31%

Texas

17

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Fewer Students in Central Texas Are or Were Low Income than in Texas, 2011-12

Never Low Income

41%

Current or Former Low Income

59%

Central Texas

Never Low Income

28%

Current or Former Low Income

72%

Texas

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at the UT Austin Education Research Center18

© 2013 E3 Alliance

9 of Every 10 Undergraduate Students in Central Texas Attends ACC, UT-Austin, or

Texas State

UT-Austin34%

Austin Community College

34%

Texas State-San Marcos

25%

St. Edward's University

4%

Concordia Uni-versity

1%

Southwestern University

1%

Huston-Tillotson University

1%

Undergraduate Enrollment in Central Texas Higher Education Institutions

19Source: THECB: 2013 Texas Public Higher Education Almanac; IPEDS

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Only 2 of 10 Students at Austin Community College Attend School Full-time

Austin Community College

Concordia University

St. Edward's University

Texas State-San Marcos

Huston-Tillotson University

UT-Austin

Southwestern University

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

20%

77%

81%

82%

87%

93%

99%

Full-time Part-time

Percent of Total Undergraduate Enrollment

20Source: THECB: 2013 Texas Public Higher Education Almanac; IPEDS

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Changes in PK-12 Enrollment

21

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Significant Growth Across All Grades Over the Last Decade

PK KG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000 Student Enrollment, Central Texas, 2001-02 and 2011-12

2001-02 2011-12Grade Level

Nu

mb

er o

f S

tud

ents

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Texas Education Agency AEIS data 22

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Student Population Increasing at Twice the State Rate

Central Texas

Texas

0% 110%

39%

20%

Population Growth From 2002 to 2012


© 2013 E3 Alliance

Fastest Growth is in Suburban Areas

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

Austin

San Marcos

Georgetown

Eanes

HaysLeander

Manor

Taylor

Liberty Hill

Hutto

Smithville

FlorenceLuling

Bastrop

McDade

Thrall

Student Enrollment Growth by District Type, 2001-02 to 2011-12

Per

cen

t G

row

th

IndependentUrban Non-MetroCentral City

RuralMajorSuburban

Central City Suburban

Note: Circle size represents district sizeSource: E3 Alliance analysis of Texas Education Agency AEIS data 24

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Asian and Hispanic Student Populations Increased Dramatically Over Last Decade

Asian Black Hispanic White 0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

7,177

23,401

80,264

113,807

14,365

25,801

144,337

119,196

Student Enrollment, Central Texas, 2001-02 and 2011-12

2001-02 2011-12

Nu

mb

er

of

Stu

de

nts


© 2013 E3 Alliance

Dramatic Increase in Low Income and ELL Student Populations from 2002 to 2012

CTX ELL

CTX Low Income

Central Texas

Texas

0% 110%

105%

90%

39%

20%

Population Growth From 2002 to 2012


© 2013 E3 Alliance

ELL Enrollment Increased Annually

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

24,693

50,734

Central Texas ELL Enrollment, 2002 Through 2012

School Year

Nu

mb

er o

f E

LL

Stu

den

ts

27

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Rate of Growth In ELL Enrollment has Slowed Dramatically Since 2008

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000Central Texas ELL Enrollment, By Year, 2002 Through 2012,

With Change From Previous Year Indicated In Red

Change From the Previous YearSchool Year

Nu

mb

er o

f E

LL

Stu

den

ts

28

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Discussion

• What part of this story about changes in PreK through grade 12 enrollment resonated the most for you?

• What was the biggest surprise?

• What is one thing from this story that you expect to share with others?

29

© 2013 E3 Alliance

High School Graduation and Attendance

30

© 2013 E3 Alliance

High School Graduation Rates in Texas and Central Texas are Similar Across Years

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

81% 84%

4-Year High School Graduation Rates, 2002-03 to 2009-10

Central Texas TexasClass of

Per

cen

t o

f S

tud

ents


© 2013 E3 Alliance

Graduation Rates for Non Low Income Students in Central Texas Similar to Texas

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

88%92%

87%91%

High School Graduation Rates, 2003-2010

Central Texas - Non-low Income Texas - Non-low IncomeClass of

Per

cen

t o

f S

tud

ents

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation data at the UT Austin Education Research Center32

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Graduation Rates for Low Income Students in Central Texas Consistently Lower than in Texas

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

88%92%

87%91%

67%73%

73%77%

High School Graduation Rates, 2003-2010

Central Texas - Non-low income Texas - Not Low IncomeCentral Texas - Low Income Texas - Low Income

Class of

Per

cen

t o

f S

tud

ents

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

33

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Low Income Graduation Rates Among Lowest in State

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201055%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%High School Graduation Rates for Low Income Students

2003-2010

TexasEl PasoRio Grande ValleyDallasSan AntonioHoustonCentral TexasP

erce

nt

of

Lo

w I

nco

me

Stu

den

ts

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

34

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Has More Absences on Average

Than Texas

KG 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 120

2

4

6

8

10

12

14 Average Number of Absences, By Grade, 2010-11

Central Texas Texas

Grade

Ave

rag

e D

ays

Ab

sen

t


© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Non-low Income Students Missed About the Same Amount of School As Texas Students

Series10

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

8 8

13

11

CentralTexas - Non-low Income Texas - Non-low Income

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

Ab

sen

ces Average Number of Absences in High School,

by Economic Status, 2010-11


© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Low Income Students Missed More School Than Texas Low Income Students

Series10

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

8 8

13

11

CentralTexas - Non-low Income Texas - Non-low IncomeCentral Texas - Low Income Texas - Low Income

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

Ab

sen

ces

Average Number of Absences by Grade and Economic Status, 2010-11


© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Non-low Income Students Missed The Same Amount of School as Students in Other Urban Areas in Texas

Non-low Income0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

7.58.4 8.2

7.6 8.0

Average Number of Absences in High School by Economic Status for Urban MSAs Throughout Texas, 2010-11

Dallas El Paso Houston San Antonio Central Texas

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

Ab

sen

ces


© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Low Income Students Miss More School Than Students in Almost All Other Urban Areas in Texas

Non-low Income Low Income0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

7.5

9.68.4

10.0

8.2

11.4

7.6

11.6

8.0

13.0

Average Number of Absences in High School by Economic Status for Urban MSAs Throughout Texas, 2010-11

Dallas El Paso Houston San Antonio Central Texas

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

Ab

sen

ces


© 2013 E3 Alliance

Discussion

• What part of this story about high school graduation rates and its relationship with attendance resonated the most for you?



40

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Higher Education Enrollment, Persistence and Completion

41

© 2013 E3 Alliance

No Improvement in Proportion of High School Graduates Enrolling in Texas Higher

Ed Institutions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Percent Enrolled in Higher Ed Within One Year of Graduating

Central Texas Texas

High School Graduation Year

Per

cen

t o

f H

igh

Sch

oo

l G

rad

uat

es

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation and higher education enrollment data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

42

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Higher Education Enrollment Rates for Non-low Income Graduates Holding Steady

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

65% 67% 69% 68% 68% 67% 68%

Percent of Central Texas High School Graduates That Enrolled in a Texas Higher Education Institution Within One Year of Graduat-

ing, by Income Status

Not Low IncomeHigh School Graduating Class

Per

cen

t o

f G

rad

uat

es


43

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Enrollment Rates for Low Income Graduates Increased

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

39% 40% 41% 44% 46% 47% 48%

65% 67% 69% 68% 68% 67% 68%

Percent of Central Texas High School Graduates That Enrolled in a Texas Higher Education Institution Within One Year of Graduat-

ing, by Income Status

Low Income Not Low IncomeHigh School Graduating Class

Per

cen

t o

f G

rad

uat

es


44

© 2013 E3 Alliance

College Enrollment Strongly Related to District’s Proportion of Low-Income

Students

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Bastrop44%

San Marcos40%

Hays 55%

Austin61%

Pflugerville61%

Manor60%

Eanes85%

Del Valle 45%

Round Rock70%

Leander67%

Hutto48%

Lake Travis75%

Taylor 50%

R² = 0.687005317533119

Direct-to-College Enrollment Rate, Central Texas, Class of 2012*

Percentage of Low Income Students

Per

cen

tag

es o

f G

rad

uat

es E

nro

lled

in

Po

stse

con

dar

y In

stit

uti

on

s

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of THECB and NSC data *Out-of-state enrollment estimated from 2007-2010 rates45

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Majority of Low Income Graduates Enrolled In Higher Ed Attend 2-Year

Colleges

Low Income 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

60%

38%

32%

49%

8% 12%

Central Texas High School Graduates Enrolled In Higher Ed In Texas by Institution Type and Income Status, Class of 2011

2-year 4-year Public 4-year Independent

Per

cen

t o

f E

nro

llee

s


46

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Majority of Low Income Graduates Enrolled In Higher Ed Attend 2-Year

Colleges

Low Income Non-low Income0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

60%

38%

32%

49%

8% 12%

Central Texas High School Graduates Enrolled In Higher Ed In Texas by Institution Type and Income Status, Class of 2011

2-year 4-year Public 4-year Independent

Per

cen

t o

f E

nro

llee

s


47

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Second Year Persistence Rates Consistent for the Classes of 2005 Through 2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

82% 83% 83% 83% 82% 81%

Percent of Central Texas HS Graduates Who Enrolled in a Texas Higher Education Institution and Persisted into their Second Year

High School Graduating Class

Per

cen

t o

f E

nro

llee

s

48Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Large Variation in Second Year Persistence Rates by Student Group

Low income Black Male

Low income Hispanic Male

Low income White Female

Low income Black Female

Low income Hispanic Female

Low income White Male

Non-low income Black Male

Non-low income Hispanic Male

Non-low income White Male

Non-low income Hispanic Female

Non-low income Black Female

Low income Asian Male

Non-low income White Female

Low income Asian Female

Non-low income Asian Male

Non-low income Asian Female

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

65%

66%

69%

70%

71%

71%

78%

81%

83%

87%

87%

88%

88%

94%

95%

97%

Second Year Persistence Rate, by Economic Status, Ethnicity, and Gender, Central Texas, Class of 2010

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center49

© 2013 E3 Alliance


















0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

65%

66%

69%

70%

71%

71%

78%

81%

83%

87%

87%

88%

88%

94%

95%

97%



© 2013 E3 Alliance

Second Year Persistence Consistently Higher Among Public 4-year

Institutions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

67% 69% 68% 69% 69% 65%

92% 93% 93% 93% 91% 92%

Percent of Higher Ed Enrollees Persisting Into Their Second Year, by High School Graduation Class, Central Texas

4-Year Public

Year of High School Graduation

Per

cen

t o

f H

igh

er E

d E

nro

llee

s


© 2013 E3 Alliance

Second Year Persistence Consistently Higher Among Public 4-year

Institutions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

67% 69% 68% 69% 69% 65%

92% 93% 93% 93% 91% 92%

Percent of Higher Ed Enrollees Persisting Into Their Second Year, by High School Graduation Class, Central Texas

2-Year 4-Year Public

Year of High School Graduation

Per

cen

t o

f H

igh

er E

d E

nro

llee

s


© 2013 E3 Alliance

One in Four Central Texas Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of

Finishing High School

Ser

ies1

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

27%

35%

40%

47%

58%

High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institu-tions in Texas, Central Texas Class of 2005

Enrolled Within 1 year

Persisted into 2nd Year

Persisted into 3rd Year

Persisted into 4th Year

Completed Within 6 Years

Percentage of High School Graduates

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

of 12,561 HS Graduates

55

© 2013 E3 Alliance

One in Ten Low Income Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of


No

n-l

ow

In

co

me

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

37%

45%

51%

58%

68%

High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institu-tions, Central Texas Class of 2005






Percentage of High School GraduatesSource: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

56

© 2013 E3 Alliance

One in Ten Low Income Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of


Lo

w I

nc

om

eN

on

-lo

w I

nc

om

e

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

10%

37%

16%

45%

20%

51%

27%

58%

39%

68%

High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institu-tions, Central Texas Class of 2005






Percentage of High School GraduatesSource: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

57

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Discussion

• What part of this story about Central Texas graduates’ rates of higher education enrollment, persistence, and completion resonated the most for you?



58

© 2013 E3 Alliance

www.e3alliance.org

The conclusions of this research do not necessarily reflect the opinions or official position of the Texas Education Agency, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, or the State of Texas.

E3 Alliance

Susan Dawson, [email protected]

Shawn Thomas, Director of Research and [email protected]

2013 Central Texas Education Profile

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