20120227 - MIIF - DBS Vickers

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www.dbsvickers.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: JS / sa: YM BUY S$0.585 STI : 2,978.08 Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.64 Reason for Report : Company update Potential Catalyst: Resolution of toll rate risk at HNE DBSV vs Consensus: Our DPS estimates are line with consensus Analyst Suvro SARKAR +65 6398 7973 [email protected] Price Relative 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 S$ 38 58 78 98 118 138 158 178 198 218 Relative Index MIIF (LHS) Relative STI INDEX (RHS) Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (S$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F Turnover 45 59 73 72 EBITDA 37 48 61 60 Pre-tax Profit 33 48 61 60 Net Profit 33 48 61 60 Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 37 48 61 60 EPS (S cts) 2.5 3.8 5.2 5.3 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 2.9 3.8 5.2 5.3 EPS Gth (%) (41) 52 37 1 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (37) 33 36 1 Diluted EPS (S cts) 2.5 3.8 5.2 5.3 Net DPS (S cts) 3.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 BV Per Share (S cts) 80.2 76.6 73.6 68.9 PE (X) 23.3 15.4 11.2 11.1 PE Pre Ex. (X) 20.4 15.3 11.2 11.1 P/Cash Flow (X) 40.0 11.3 nm nm EV/EBITDA (X) 10.3 14.9 11.3 11.1 Net Div Yield (%) 5.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 P/Book Value (X) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH ROAE (%) 3.1 4.8 6.7 7.3 Earnings Rev (%): - - Consensus DPS (S cts): 5.5 5.5 5.5 Other Broker Recs: B: 4 S: 0 H: 1 ICB Industry : Financials ICB Sector: Equity Investment Instruments Principal Business: MIIF is an Asia-focused owner and operator of private infrastructure businesses Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,189 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 696 / 554 Major Shareholders Abu Dhabi Invest (%) 10.3 Macquarie Bank (%) 8.6 Capital Rsch Mgm (%) 6.5 Free Float (%) 74.6 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 2,090 DBS Group Research . Equity 27 Feb 2012 Singapore Company Focus MIIF Bloomberg: MIIF SP | Reuters: MIIF.SI Risk/reward remains attractive 2H11 DPS of 2.75 Scts in line All key underlying assets achieved revenue growth in FY11; net dividend income for MIIF up 30% y-o-y Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.64; current dividend yield of 9.4% provides enough buffer against risk of toll rate cut at HNE Decent organic growth at key assets. The fund generated net dividend income of S$48m in FY11, up 30% y-o-y owing to bigger stake in Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC). MIIF declared an expected 2.75 Scts final DPS, taking total FY11 DPS to 5.5Scts. Underlying assets performance was satisfactory in FY11. Even Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) registered a surprise revenue growth of 1.3% despite the de-tolling of a competing expressway in Dec’10. Revenue at Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP) grew by a strong 14%, on the back of continued strong growth in log volumes (up 52% y-o-y). TBC registered steady revenue growth of 3% on the back of stronger-than-expected growth in the digital TV segment (63% subscriber growth). This augurs well for higher investment income for MIIF in FY12. Going forward, the key risk is possible toll rate reduction at HNE Phase I, as the Guangdong government will be introducing uniform toll road standards. HNE Phase I toll rate may be cut by about 20% to be compliant with these new measures, which could be implemented by mid-2012. This could impact revenue by up to 15% over the next 2 years, and lead to one-off lower dividend income in FY13/14. But this should not come as a surprise. This well-known risk should be factored in the current share price. A worst-case impact from HNE toll rate cut could be a cut in FY12 DPU to 5.0Scts to smoothen out the effect. This still implies 8.6% yield. No change to our SOTP valuation of S$0.64, as we have already factored in downside at HNE (our valuation for HNE is 32% off management valuation). Maintain BUY for close to 20% total return potential. Share buyback activities will also continue to lend support to share price. Note: The revenue and earnings shown above are on an adjusted basis and represent the earnings of MIIF from its key investments that underpin the dividend flow to shareholders, and are not in accordance with accounting standards.

Transcript of 20120227 - MIIF - DBS Vickers

Page 1: 20120227 - MIIF - DBS Vickers

www.dbsvickers.com Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report ed: JS / sa: YM

BUY S$0.585 STI : 2,978.08 Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.64 Reason for Report : Company update Potential Catalyst: Resolution of toll rate risk at HNE DBSV vs Consensus: Our DPS estimates are line with consensus Analyst Suvro SARKAR +65 6398 7973 [email protected]

Price Relative

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R e l a t i v e I n d e x

M I I F ( L H S ) R e la t i v e S T I I N D E X ( R H S )

Forecasts and Valuation FY Dec (S$ m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F

Turnover 45 59 73 72 EBITDA 37 48 61 60 Pre-tax Profit 33 48 61 60 Net Profit 33 48 61 60 Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 37 48 61 60 EPS (S cts) 2.5 3.8 5.2 5.3 EPS Pre Ex. (S cts) 2.9 3.8 5.2 5.3 EPS Gth (%) (41) 52 37 1 EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (37) 33 36 1 Diluted EPS (S cts) 2.5 3.8 5.2 5.3 Net DPS (S cts) 3.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 BV Per Share (S cts) 80.2 76.6 73.6 68.9 PE (X) 23.3 15.4 11.2 11.1 PE Pre Ex. (X) 20.4 15.3 11.2 11.1 P/Cash Flow (X) 40.0 11.3 nm nm EV/EBITDA (X) 10.3 14.9 11.3 11.1 Net Div Yield (%) 5.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 P/Book Value (X) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH ROAE (%) 3.1 4.8 6.7 7.3 Earnings Rev (%): - - Consensus DPS (S cts): 5.5 5.5 5.5 Other Broker Recs: B: 4 S: 0 H: 1 ICB Industry : Financials ICB Sector: Equity Investment Instruments Principal Business: MIIF is an Asia-focused owner and operator of private infrastructure businesses Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg

At A Glance Issued Capital (m shrs) 1,189 Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 696 / 554 Major Shareholders Abu Dhabi Invest (%) 10.3 Macquarie Bank (%) 8.6 Capital Rsch Mgm (%) 6.5 Free Float (%) 74.6 Avg. Daily Vol.(‘000) 2,090

DBS Group Research . Equity 27 Feb 2012

Singapore Company Focus

MIIF Bloomberg: MIIF SP | Reuters: MIIF.SI

Risk/reward remains attractive• 2H11 DPS of 2.75 Scts in line

• All key underlying assets achieved revenue growth in FY11; net dividend income for MIIF up 30% y-o-y

• Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.64; current dividend yield of 9.4% provides enough buffer against risk of toll rate cut at HNE

Decent organic growth at key assets. The fund generated net dividend income of S$48m in FY11, up 30% y-o-y owing to bigger stake in Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC). MIIF declared an expected 2.75 Scts final DPS, taking total FY11 DPS to 5.5Scts. Underlying assets performance was satisfactory in FY11. Even Hua Nan Expressway (HNE) registered a surprise revenue growth of 1.3% despite the de-tolling of a competing expressway in Dec’10. Revenue at Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP) grew by a strong 14%, on the back of continued strong growth in log volumes (up 52% y-o-y). TBC registered steady revenue growth of 3% on the back of stronger-than-expected growth in the digital TV segment (63% subscriber growth). This augurs well for higher investment income for MIIF in FY12.

Going forward, the key risk is possible toll rate reduction at HNE Phase I, as the Guangdong government will be introducing uniform toll road standards. HNE Phase I toll rate may be cut by about 20% to be compliant with these new measures, which could be implemented by mid-2012. This could impact revenue by up to 15% over the next 2 years, and lead to one-off lower dividend income in FY13/14.

But this should not come as a surprise. This well-known risk should be factored in the current share price. A worst-case impact from HNE toll rate cut could be a cut in FY12 DPU to 5.0Scts to smoothen out the effect. This still implies 8.6% yield. No change to our SOTP valuation of S$0.64, as we have already factored in downside at HNE (our valuation for HNE is 32% off management valuation). Maintain BUY for close to 20% total return potential. Share buyback activities will also continue to lend support to share price.

Note: The revenue and earnings shown above are on an adjusted basis and represent the earnings of MIIF from its key investments that underpin the dividend flow to shareholders, and are not in accordance with accounting standards.

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Company Focus

MIIF

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Results Summary and Comments FY Dec (S$m) FY10 FY11 YoY Chg Remarks Revenue 44.6 59.2 33% Investment Income 42.2 57.7 37% Higher stake in TBC Interest Income 1.6 0.8 -52% Annual interest rate of 0.4% on cash Net foreign exchange gain 0.8 0.7 -4% Realisation of some distribution hedges Net gain on financial assets 0.0 0.0 Other income 0.0 0.0 Other Operating Income 0.0 0.0 nm

Base Management Fees (4.5) (7.9) 75% Increased market cap in FY11 and decrease in

cash balance led to higher net investment value Performance Fees ! Directors' fees (0.4) (0.4) -8% Finance Costs Lending fees (0.3) (1.1) 308% Includes credit facility renewal fee of S$1m Others (2.2) (1.6) -27% Higher due diligence activity in FY10 Total Operating Expenses (7.4) (11.0) 49% Net Adjusted Income (Pre-Ex) 37.2 48.2 30%

Transaction Costs (4.7) (0.3) -94% Higher transaction costs in FY10 related to

disposal of interest in Arqiva Net Adjusted Income 32.5 47.9 47% Distribution Summary TBC dividends 13.1 29.9 128% Higher stake in TBC (47.5% vs. 20% in FY10) HNE dividends 21.3 22.5 6% Organic growth in asset CXP dividends 4.6 5.3 15% Organic growth in asset Miaoli dividends 0.0 0.0 nm Net expenses (6.5) (9.8) 51% Higher management fees Net cash inflow 32.5 47.9 47% Net holding company cash 485.4 116.2 Dividends declared 38.9 69.4 78% DPU (Scts) 3.0 5.5 83%

Source: Company, DBS Vickers Note: The revenue and earnings shown above are on an adjusted basis and represent the earnings of MIIF from its key investments that underpin the dividend flow to shareholders, and are not in accordance with accounting standards.

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Company Focus

MIIF

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Snapshot of asset diversification at MIIF as of end-FY11

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

CXP – Cargo Throughput Trends

Cargo Volumes 07 08 09 10 11Steel (tons) 3,028,095 2,600,770 2,315,743 2,217,018 2,333,917Logs (tons) 831,219 1,297,735 1,977,178Other non-steel (tons) 692,291 788,161 378,155 647,302 552,027Paper & Pulp (tons) 1,834,540 1,893,519 2,094,048 2,138,717 2,140,347

Total general cargo (tons) 5,554,926 5,282,450 5,619,165 6,300,772 7,003,469

Growth -4.9% 6.4% 12.1% 11.2% Container (TEU) 87,763 95,522 81,893 90,163 82,493 Growth 8.8% -14.3% 10.1% -8.5%

Source: Company, DBS Vickers CXP – Revenue and EBITDA Trends

FY Dec (m) 07 08 09 10 11 Revenue (RMB m) 214.7 209.6 217.2 263.6 301.1 Revenue growth 10% -2% 4% 21% 14% EBITDA (RMB m) 120.8 84.0 119.1 127.4 152.5EBITDA Margin 56% 40% 55% 48% 51% Distributions to MIIF (S$) 5.7 5.1 1.5 4.6 5.3

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Geographical Spread - Dec 2011

Cash11%

China36%

Taiwan53%

Port folio Composit ion - Dec 2011

TBC53%

HNE25%

Cash11%

CXP11%

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Company Focus

MIIF

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HNE - Traffic Volume Trends

Traffic ('000) 07 08 09 10 11Passenger Vehicles 27,827 30,110 34,936 38,550 38,646 Minibus/ Light Truck 2,973 2,490 2,427 2,414 1,854 Medium Bus/ Truck 7,359 6,370 6,864 7,086 5,938 Large Bus/ Large Truck 628 599 618 654 530 Heavy Duty Truck/ Trailer 1,613 1,304 1,485 1,828 1,814

Total Vehicles 40,400 40,873 46,330 50,532 48,782

Growth 1.2% 13.4% 9.1% -3.5%

Source: Company, DBS Vickers HNE - Revenue and EBITDA Trends

FY Dec (m) 07 08 09 10 11 Revenue (RMB m) 459.2 446.7 484.4 523.4 530.1 Revenue growth -2.7% 8.4% 8.1% 1.3% EBITDA (RMB m) 381.6 353.8 393.4 428.6 425.2EBITDA Margin 83% 79% 81% 82% 80% Distributions to MIIF (S$) 13.2 14.2 21.3 22.5 Source: Company, DBS Vickers TBC - Subscriber Number Trends

Subscribers 07 08 09 10 11Basic Cable TV 688,860 712,895 724,628 738,072 748,759 Basic Digital 19,373 18,958 25,012 55,619 90,632 Penetration rate 2.8% 2.7% 3.5% 7.5% 12.1%Broadband 111,177 128,605 140,227 152,369 164,625 Penetration rate 16.1% 18.0% 19.4% 20.6% 22.0% Subscriber Growth Basic Cable TV 3.6% 3.5% 1.6% 1.9% 1.4%Basic Digital 21.0% -2.1% 31.9% 122.4% 63.0%Broadband 19.9% 15.7% 9.0% 8.7% 8.0%

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

TBC – Revenue and EBITDA forecasts

FY Dec (m) 07 08 09 10 11 Revenue (NT$ m) 6,157.3 6,408.4 6,646.1 6,909.6 7,127.7 Revenue growth 4.1% 3.7% 4.0% 3.2% EBITDA (NT$ m) 3672.6 3902.0 4078.1 4287.2 4543.1EBITDA Margin 59.6% 60.9% 61.4% 62.0% 63.7% Distributions to MIIF (S$)* 18.2 16.6 13.1 29.9

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Note: Ownership change for MIIF in 2011-12 from 20% stake previously to current 47.5% stake

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Company Focus

MIIF

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Details of share buy backs in FY11

Date Shares

Purchased (m) Value (S$m) Per share (S$) Share cap

before purchase Share cap after

purchase Market volume

(m) Buybacks as a % of

market volume

1Q11 8.6 5.1 0.60 1,297.8 1,289.2 263.5 3%

2Q11 21.9 13.0 0.59 1,289.2 1,267.3 146.4 15%

3Q11 20.7 11.4 0.55 1,267.3 1,246.6 162.5 13%

4Q11 49.9 26.1 0.52 1,246.6 1,196.7 146.3 34%

FY11 101.1 55.6 0.55 1,297.8 1,196.7 718.7 14%

Since last mandate 92.1 50.2 0.55 1,288.8 1,196.7 444.6 21%

Maximum allowed till next AGM 128.9

Source: Company, DBS Vickers MIIF’s aggregate and asset level gearing ratios (debt/ asset) Equity Net Debt Net Gearing TBC 508.8 472.7 0.48xHNE 244.2 412.5 0.63xCXP 101.5 25.2 0.20xMiaoli 0.0 65.3 1.00xTotal 854.5 975.7 0.53x Corporate level cash (110.0) Total (incl. Cash) 854.5 865.7 0.50x

Source: Company, DBS Vickers estimates

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Company Focus

MIIF

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Sum-of-the-parts Valuation for MIIF

Attributable to MIIF DCF Valuation (S$m) Per share (S$) % of Valuation RemarksCXP 92.4 0.08 12% WACC 12%HNE 166.2 0.14 22% WACC 10%TBC 482.7 0.40 63% WACC 9%, terminal growth 1%Miaoli 0.0 0.00 0%

Management Fees (86.1) -0.07 -11% Estimated future value of annual fee outflowsHolding company cash 116.2 0.10 15% As of end –FY11

Total 771.4 0.64

No of shares (m) – end FY 1196.7

MIIF – Peer Valuation Summary

Company Price Mkt Cap (US$m)

DPU FY11

DPU FY12

Yield FY11

Yield FY12

DPU Growth

EV/EBITDA FY11

EV/EBITDA FY12

HPH Trust 0.77 6706 0.06 0.06 7.3% 7.8% 6.4% 12.9 12.2

SP Ausnet 1.32 3024 0.08 0.08 6.1% 6.1% 1.3% 10.6 9.9

CitySpring 0.37 447 0.03 0.03 8.6% 8.9% 3.1% 14.8 15.3

Average 7.6% 7.7% 1.5% 12.7 12.6

MIIF 0.585 553 0.06 0.06 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 14.9 11.3

Source: Bloomberg, DBS Vickers

MIIF Dividend Yield Trading Band – currently trading below mean valuations

Source: Bloomberg, DBS Vickers

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Company Focus

MIIF

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Segmental Breakdown of Investment Income FY Dec 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Revenues (S$ m) CXP 2 5 5 6 6 HNE 14 21 23 20 18 TBC 17 13 30 45 46 Miaoli 0 0 0 0 0 Others 31 6 1 1 1 Total 64 45 59 73 72 Income Statement (S$ m) FY Dec 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Investment Income 64 45 59 73 72 Fund Expenses (7) (7) (11) (12) (12) Operating Profit 56 37 48 61 60 Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 0 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) (3) (5) 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit 53 33 48 61 60 Tax 0 0 0 0 0 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0 Net Adjusted Income 53 33 48 61 60 Net Adj Inc Pre Except. 56 37 48 61 60 EBITDA 56 37 48 61 60 Growth Revenue Gth (%) (52.8) (30.1) 32.8 23.4 (1.0) EBITDA Gth (%) (51.4) (33.9) 29.6 26.6 (1.0) Opg Profit Gth (%) (51.4) (33.9) 29.6 26.6 (1.0) Net Profit Gth (%) (53.0) (39.0) 47.4 27.4 (1.0) Margins & Ratio Opg Profit Margin (%) 88.3 83.4 81.4 83.6 83.5 Net Profit Margin (%) 83.6 72.9 81.0 83.6 83.5 ROAE (%) 4.6 3.1 4.8 6.7 7.3 ROA (%) 4.1 2.7 4.3 5.9 6.4 ROCE (%) 4.4 3.2 4.3 6.0 6.5 Div Payout Ratio (%) 70.2 119.7 144.7 105.6 104.4 Source: Company, DBS Vickers Note: The revenue and earnings shown above are on an adjusted basis and represent the earnings of MIIF from its key investments that underpin the dividend flow to shareholders, and are not in accordance with accounting standards.

Margins Trend

69.0%

74.0%

79.0%

84.0%

89.0%

2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Operating Margin % Net Income Margin %

Income from HNE impacted by toll rate cut

Full year impact of higher stake

FY10 income was affected by divestment of assets

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Company Focus

MIIF

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Quarterly / Interim Income Statement (S$ m) FY Dec 4Q2010 1Q2011 2Q2011 3Q2011 4Q2011

Revenue 1 10 1 48 1 Cost of Goods Sold 0 0 0 0 0 Gross Profit 1 10 1 48 1 Other Oper. (Exp)/Inc (1) (2) (4) (2) (3) Operating Profit (1) 8 (3) 46 (2) Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0 Associates & JV Inc 0 0 0 0 0 Net Interest (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0 0 0 Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax Profit (1) 7 (3) 46 (2) Tax 0 0 0 0 0 Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0 Net Profit (1) 7 (3) 46 (2) Net profit bef Except. (1) 8 (3) 46 (2) EBITDA (1) 8 (3) 46 (2) Growth Revenue Gth (%) (97.7) 1,139.3 (94.2) 8,213.4 (98.3) EBITDA Gth (%) (101.9) (1,278.5) (141.0) (1,566.9) (103.9) Opg Profit Gth (%) (101.9) (1,278.5) (141.0) (1,566.9) (103.9) Net Profit Gth (%) (101.9) (1,261.2) (143.9) (1,491.1) (103.9) Margins Gross Margins (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Opg Profit Margins (%) (80.4) 76.4 (538.7) 95.1 (212.8) Net Profit Margins (%) (80.4) 75.3 (568.1) 95.1 (212.8) Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Note: The revenue and earnings shown above are on an adjusted basis and represent the earnings of MIIF from its key investments that underpin the dividend flow to shareholders, and are not in accordance with accounting standards.

Revenue Trend

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Company Focus

MIIF

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Balance Sheet (S$ m) FY Dec 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Net Fixed Assets 930 581 880 807 734 Invts in Associates & JVs 0 0 0 0 0 Other LT Assets 94 89 81 75 70 Cash & ST Invts 176 486 116 91 97 Inventory 0 0 0 0 0 Debtors 3 13 4 4 4 Other Current Assets 0 0 1 1 1 Total Assets 1,202 1,170 1,081 977 905 ST Debt 6 6 26 26 26 Other Current Liab 17 12 12 12 12 LT Debt 80 74 45 45 45 Other LT Liabilities 5 6 5 5 5 Shareholder’s Equity 1,066 1,041 965 862 790 Minority Interests 29 31 27 27 27 Total Cap. & Liab. 1,202 1,170 1,081 977 905 Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (15) 1 (7) (7) (7) Net Cash/(Debt) 90 406 45 21 26 Debtors Turn (avg days) 37.7 65.6 54.5 21.1 21.3 Creditors Turn (avg days) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Inventory Turn (avg days) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Asset Turnover (x) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Current Ratio (x) 7.7 27.3 3.2 2.6 2.7 Quick Ratio (x) 7.7 27.3 3.2 2.5 2.7 Net Debt/Equity (X) CASH CASH CASH CASH CASH Net Debt/Equity ex MI (X) (0.1) (0.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex to Debt (%) (195.0) (417.5) 448.9 0.0 0.0 Z-Score (X) NA NA NA NA NA Cash Flow Statement (S$ m) FY Dec 2009A 2010A 2011F 2012F 2013F

Pre-Tax Profit (117) 33 46 (9) (9) Dep. & Amort. 6 6 6 6 6 Tax Paid (1) (1) 0 0 0 Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) 0 0 0 0 0 Chg in Wkg.Cap. (1) (16) 9 0 0 Other Operating CF 170 (3) 5 0 0 Net Operating CF 57 19 65 (4) (3) Capital Exp.(net) 167 335 (317) 0 0 Other Invts.(net) 0 0 0 0 0 Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0 0 0 Div from Assoc & JV 0 0 0 73 72 Other Investing CF 0 0 0 0 0 Net Investing CF 167 335 (317) 73 72 Div Paid (58) (39) (54) (64) (63) Chg in Gross Debt (25) (6) (8) 0 0 Capital Issues 0 0 (56) (30) 0 Other Financing CF 0 0 0 0 0 Net Financing CF (84) (45) (117) (94) (63) Currency Adjustments 0 0 0 0 0 Chg in Cash 140 310 (369) (25) 6 Opg CFPS (S cts) 4.6 2.7 4.5 (0.3) (0.3) Free CFPS (S cts) 18.0 27.3 (20.0) (0.3) (0.3)

Source: Company, DBS Vickers

Asset Breakdown (2011)

Debtors - 1.4%

Net Fixed Assets - 88.1%

Associates'/JVs 0.0%

Bank, Cash and Liquid

Assets - 10.5% Inventory -

0.0%

Capital Expenditure

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Capital Expenditure (-)

About S$320m cash deployed to raise stake in TBC from 20% to 47.5%

Share buyback programme in place

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Company Focus

MIIF

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DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as follows:

STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)

BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)

HOLD (-10% to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10% to +10% for large caps)

FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)

SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)

Share price appreciation + dividends DBS Vickers Research is available on the following electronic platforms: DBS Vickers (www.dbsvresearch.com); Thomson (www.thomson.com/financial); Factset (www.factset.com); Reuters (www.rbr.reuters.com); Capital IQ (www.capitaliq.com) and Bloomberg (DBSR GO). For access, please contact your DBSV salesperson. GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by DBS Vickers Research (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVR"), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVS") and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ("DBSVH"). This report is intended for clients of DBSV Group only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVR. It is being distributed in the United States by DBSV US, which accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this report who wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc (“DBSVUSA”) directly and not its affiliate. The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we (which collectively refers to DBSVR, DBSVS, and/or DBSVH) do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for general circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate independent legal or financial advice. DBSVR accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss (including any claims for loss of profit) arising from any use of and/or reliance upon this document and/or further communication given in relation to this document. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. DBSVH is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. DBS Bank Ltd along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and their associates, their directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to perform broking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies. Any valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report, and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments. The information in this document is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. The valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. It can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described herein IS NOT TO BE RELIED UPON as a representation and/or warranty by DBSVR, DBSVS and/or DBSVH (and/or any persons associated with the aforesaid entities), that: (a) such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments or their underlying assumptions will be achieved, and (b) there is any assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk

assessments stated therein. Any assumptions made in this report that refers to commodities, are for the purposes of making forecasts for the company (or companies) mentioned herein. They are not to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodity or in the futures contract relating to the commodity referred to in this report. DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA")"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively. ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about the companies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of 27 Feb 2012, the analyst and his / her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the securities recommended in this report (“interest” includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions).

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COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

1. DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the company mentioned as of 23 Feb 2012

2. DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA"), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the company mentioned as of 27 Feb 2012.

3. Compensation for investment banking services:

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