2009 TCC presentation Joint Typhoon Warning Center Operational Outlook LCDR Mike Vancas JTWC Ops...

2009 TCC presentation

Joint Typhoon Warning Center Operational Outlook

LCDR Mike Vancas

JTWC Ops Officer


Overview

• JTWC Services

• Operational Challenges in 2008

• New in 2009

• Contact Information


Satellite Analysis• Position Fix every 3 hours

– VIS, IR, Multi-spectral• Intensity Estimate every 6 hours

– Dvorak Technique • Code and Transmit Bulletin• Process Other Agencies’ Fixes• Microwave Fixes as available


JTWC ServicesWarnings/TCFA/Bulletins/Prog Reasoning

PTTUZYUW RHHMFWCXXXX XXXXXXX-UUUU-RHMCSUU ZNR UUUU P 100551Z AUG 06 FM NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//JTWC// TO AL 459 AIG 459 HSV WESTPAC EXPRESS MV MONTAUK USNS WALTER S DIEHL USNS WATKINS BT UNCLAS //N03145// PASS TO OFFICE CODES: PSBR BCST//SID 80// DIRNSA FT GEORGE G MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN /AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZAUG2006// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZAUG2006// REF/B/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100153ZAUG2006// NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.// RMKS/ ABPW10 PGTW 100600 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 100000Z SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 08W (SAOMAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 122.5E, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 140 KNOTS GUSTING TO 170 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) AT 100000Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (BOPHA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 116.5E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN33 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 151.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHT CYCLONIC TURNING AND AN ELONGATED, WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 092230Z SSMI PASS INDICATES MOSTLY LINEAR CONVERGENCE OVER AND SOUTH- EAST OF GUAM WITH CONVERGENT FLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 15- TO 20-KNOT WESTERLY WIND BURST ALONG 5N WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE MARIANAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED CYCLONIC TURNING INDUCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF THE DISTURBANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

Products Available on:• http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC• DMS• JOTS• JMV


JTWC ServicesSignificant Tropical Weather Advisory

• Also known as ABIO/ABPW– Issued at 0600Z (ABPW) and 1800Z

(ABIO)• Covers 24 Hour period• May be reissued as needed to reflect

updates and development changes

– Covers both Northern and Southern Hemispheres

• Two sections each, Tropical Cyclones and Tropical Disturbances


• Tropical Cyclone section will reflect most recent position at bulletin issue time (or reissue as appropriate) for each active Cyclone (warning status)

• Tropical Disturbance section– Tropical Disturbances discussed relative to development

potential within next 24 hours (period of bulletin coverage)

• 3 Classifications Poor, Fair, Good– Poor – Development not expected during forecast period– Fair – Meteorological conditions increasingly favorable, but

development not commenced– Good – Meteorological conditions are favorable AND

development has commenced.» TCFA will be issued on all ‘Good’ areas

JTWC ServicesSignificant Tropical Weather Advisory (cont.)


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

• Issued on all ‘Good’ Areas

• Valid for 24 Hours• Reissued, upgraded to

warning or cancelled

WTXS21 PGTW 081500SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 70.9E TO 19.1S 67.9EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-AGERY AT 081400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 14.0S 70.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S69.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NMSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITEIMAGERY AND A 081226Z SSMIS IMAGE CONTINUE TO DEPICT A RAPIDLYCONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEFINEDLLCC AND MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THECENTER. PREVIOUS SHIP REPORTS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTA 25-30 KNOT SYSTEM WITH SLP NEAR 1002 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSISINDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLYHINDERED BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITHGOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO LOWER VWS WITHIN 12-24HOURS AND SHOULD ALSO TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOWTO ITS SOUTH, RESULTING IN IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH WILLALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN TO 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEALEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON THEIMPROVED ORGANIZATION, TIGHT BANDING, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ANDEXPECTED TRACK INTO AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIALFOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHINTHE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING ORCANCELLED BY 091500Z.//


Warnings

• JTWC issues warnings in Western North Pacific (West of Date Line)– Tropical systems reach 25 Knots closed

circulation– Warnings are Issued to 120 Hours (5

days)– Text bulletins are posted to Navy

Oceanography Portal, JAAWIN, GTS and via Message Traffic

– Graphical products posted to NOP


Warnings (cont)

• Warnings include forecast track, intensity and wind radii (through 72 hours)– Graphical products include error swath– Wind probability products produced as

well


Graphical Warning Product

Error Swath

Forecast Track

Forecast Wind radii

Forecast Tau (DD/HH) Warning Position

Forecast Summary

CPA

Bearing


Forecast Cycle

00Z

06Z

12Z

18Z

Repeated 4 X per day

00-01Z: Import FixesEvaluate Observational DataCreate and Send BogusBest-track TCs and Suspect Areas

01-03Z: Evaluate Guidance (Models, etc.)Develop Forecast (Track, Intensity, Structure)Create Warning ProductsTransmit Warning Products

03-04Z: Complete Administrative TasksCommunicate with CustomersImport FixesCreate 3-hr Position Update

04-05Z: Update Situational AwarenessAssess Suspect AreasCreate Advisories and Alerts

05-06Z: Evaluate new dataRe-Best TCs and Suspect AreasWatch Team Discussion


Warnings Special Services3 Hour Updated Position

• Updated Position (JTUP)– Estimated Position issued when:

• Tropical Cyclone within 180 NM of:– Cheju Island– Guam– Okinawa– Sasebo– Iwakuni– Yokosuka

• One of above sets TC Condition of Readiness (TCCOR) II or higher

• Requested by PACOM


• Conference Calls• Available to operational forecasters via dial-up at 2130Z

when the JTWC 72-hr 35kt wind radii area falls on major DoD concentration areas.

• Discussion covers synoptic picture, storm analysis, forecast track, forecast intensity, track uncertainty, etc.– Discussion does not cover TC COR

• JTWC provides conference website– https://pzal.nmci.navy.mil/Confcall/confcall.html

• Participation is encouraged– DSN (315) 455-9934

– COM (808) 655-9934

• Host Code: 865656

Warnings Special ServicesConference Call


Warning Special ServicesWind Probabilities

• Provides indication of confidence in forecast

• Offered for Northwest Pacific only

• Password reqd.


WPAC 96, 120-Hour Mean Error (nm)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Err

or

(nm

) 96 hr

5 yr mean (96)

120 hr

5 yr mean (120)

WPAC 24, 48, 72-Hour Mean Error (nm)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Err

or

(nm

)

24 HR

5-Year Mean (24 HR)

48 HR

5-Year Mean (48 HR)

72 HR

5-Year Mean (72 HR)

Operational ChallengesWest Pacific Track Errors


Operational ChallengesWest Pacific Track Errors

JTWC 2008 ERRORS PER STORM

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120

01W

02W

03W

04W

05W

06W

07W

08W

09W

10W

11W

12W

13W

14W

15W

16W

17W

18W

19W

20W

21W

22W

23W

24W

25W

26W

27W


Operational ChallengesNumerical Weather Prediction

TY 07W Consensus TY 07W Forecast Tracks


Operational Challenges

• Frequent military TDO turnover.

• Interruptions to back office functions

– Military Turnover and back office functionality interruptions should be mitigated by civilianization of Tech Dev and TDO positions


JTOPS Contact Info

• If you have any questions or concerns, contact me at:

michael.vancas@navy.(smil).mil

COM: (808) 471-4597

DSN: (315) 471-4597

TDO: [email protected]

(Subj: For JTOPS)

2009 TCC presentation Joint Typhoon Warning Center Operational Outlook LCDR Mike Vancas JTWC Ops...

Documents

Transcript of 2009 TCC presentation Joint Typhoon Warning Center Operational Outlook LCDR Mike Vancas JTWC Ops...