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Transcript of 2009 START Research Review Online
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8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online
1/27
w | 2009acenterofexcellenceoftheU.s.departmentofhomelandsecuritybasedattheuniversityofmaryland
nationalconsortiumforthestudyofterrorismandresponsesto
2009researchrev
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2 vw | 2009
About START
heonlConsorumorheudyoerrorsmndesponseso
errorsm,knownsSTART,openedsdoorsnJnury5.Ismsson:
ousese-o-he-rheores,mehodsnddromhesoclnd
behvorlscencesobeerundersndheorgns,dynmcsndsocl
ndpsychologclmpcsoerrorsm.
Fundedbynnl$mllonCeneroExcellencegrnromheU..
eprmenoomelndecurys(DHS)cence&echnologyrecore,
STARTslgnedwhhedrecoresumnFcors/Behvorlcences
vson.STARTlsorecevessupporromunswhnDHS,ncludnghe
FederlEmergencyMngemengencyndhernsporonecury
dmnsron,ndromoherederlsources,suchsheonlcenceFoundon,heonlInsueoJuscendheeprmenoeense.
STARTsreserchsnendedobenehomelndsecuryproessonls
heederl,sendlocllevels.Ioersnsghsnompornpolcy
ssues,ncludnghowodsruperrorsneworks,reducehencdence
oerrorsmndenhncehereslenceosoceynheceoerrors
hres.STARTsmjorreserchresreerrorsmgroupormonnd
recrumen,errorsgroupperssencenddynmcsndhesocel
mpcoerrorsm.hesehreeocusresrebsedonhedevelopmenl
cycleogroupsemployngerrorsm,whchrcessorgnsrdclzon,
lespnoperonsndnervenonsndmpccommunyreslence.
STARTlsodoesworkhcuscrossllhreeosmjorreserchres,
whprojecssuchsheGloblerrorsmbse,nopen-source
dbseonerrorsevensroundheworldsnce97.
occomplshsmsson,STARTbrngsogehermul-nsuonl,
muldscplnryemoexpers,ncludngcrmnologss,polclscenss,socologss,psychologss,geogrphers,economss,hsorns
ndpublchelhexpers.WhdmnsrveofcesheUnversyo
Mrylnd,STARTworksncollboronwhnerly5flensuons
romroundheworld.
Inddon,STARTsdedcedornngndmenorngnew
generonoscholrsndnlysscpbleoexmnngquesonsbou
hebehvoroerrorssnderrorsgroupsndhowsoceescnbes
prepreordelngwherrorshresorrespondngoerrorscks.
STARTsupporshehomelndsecurypolcycommunybygenerng
scencllyvldedndngshnormoperonsndpolces
nvolvngerrorsmprevenon,hredeecon,counererrorsm,
preprednessndresponse,communyrecoveryndrskcommuncon.
In9,STARTrecevedCerceoecognonromheDHScence
ndechnologyrecore,OfceoUnversyProgrms,recognzngs
ousndngconrbuonsohesecuryohenonbydevelopngheGloblerrorsmbse.
2 Leer rom he recor
3 oe rom he Edors
421 F d pj
4 ers nd Mnds
6 Underlyng Movons
8 Moscs o Mnory Volence
10 Crmnl Volence nd errorsm
12 Mgne or errorsm?
14 oxc Connecons
16 eerrence or Bcklsh?
18 Publc Prepredness or errors
20 Communy eslence
2229 pj mm
22 errors Group Formon
nd ecrumen 24 errors Group Perssence nd ynmcs
26 ocl esponses o errors hres nd cks
28 Ongong Projecs
30 eserchers
31 Educon Progrms
32 CredsNatiatitStTiaRtTi,9 a D
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START oers insights into importantpolicy issues, includin how to
disrupt terrorist networks, reducethe incidence o terrorism andenhance the resilience o societyin the ace o terrorist threats.
nationalconsortiumforthestudyofterrorismandresponsesto
00researchrev
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2 vw | 2009
Letter from the Director
Welcome to the first edition of the START Research Review,ndhnkyouoryourneresnhe
workoheonlConsorumorheudyoerrorsmndesponsesoerrorsm(START).
heunderlyngphlosophyoSTARTshundersndngcomplex,globlphenomenonsuchs
errorsmrequreshebesndhebrghesromdscplnescrosshebehvorlndsoclscences.
Moreover,wessumehnosngleunversyorreserchnsuehsmonopolyonllohebes
mehodsndknowledge.ccordngly,STARThsssembledmul-nsuonl,muldscplnryem
whresercherspproxmely5unversesndreserchnsuesroundheworld.Usngse-
o-he-rmehods,romexpermenldoeldsurveys,romsophscedqunvenlyses
ocsesudes,STARTsconrbungodeeperundersndngohesourcesoerrorsmndhebes
wysorsoceesocounercndmgeerrorsmseecs.sU..eprmenoomelnd
ecuryCeneroExcellence,STARTbrdgeshecdemc,governmenndprvereserchsecorsndendevorsoconsnlymprovehequlyohenlyssproduces.
Unversyscenssrdonllyhvepublshedheresulsoherreserchnechnclrepors
ndproessonljournls,whchrenowdelycrculedmongpolcymkersndnon-cdemcs.
Ourreserchemhsbeenseekngwysoshresmpornndngsnlessrdonlwys.hs
rsedonohesah viwseresocusesonshor,hghlyvsulsummreshhghlghsome
oourmjorreserchdscoveresromhepsyer.Forexmple,ddyouknowhhevsmjory
ocksbyoregnn-mercnerrorsgroupsrecrredounhehoscounryoheerrors
grouprherhngnsheU..homelnd?Orhmercnsremuchmorelkelyoprepreor
nurlhzrdslkeerhqukesndorndoeshnorerrorsm?
hedebehndheSTARTsah viwsogveredersnovervewoprojecshwehve
oundespecllyneresngndhhvendngsrelevnonon-cdemcs.Ocourse,orhose
whmorespeclzedorechnclneress,welsoprovdenormononhowoobncomplee
scencreporsorechohesudesrevewedhere.PlesevsourWebsewww.stat.md.do
ndmuchmoredelednormonboureserch,educonndourechopporunes.
hnkyougnoryourneresnSTART.Ihopehhsovervewoourworkwllencourgeyouoexmnemoreullyourreserchndoconsderhowhesendngseceorsocounererrorsm.
ncerely,
G LF, it
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Note from the Editors
Since it began operations in 2005 ,STARThssupporedmorehnreserchprojecsdesgned
oexpndourknowledgeohesoclndbehvorlspecsoerrorsm.oughlyhlohesewere
nedn5,ndhlhebegnnngoSTARTssecondreserchcyclen.swouldbe
expeced,heerlerseoreserchprojecsshemosmure,sosheresulsoselecono
heseprojecshweshowcsenhe9sah viw,STARTsrssuchpublcon.
WebegnexplorngSTARTsreserchbyhghlghngnneosreserchprojecsnwhwehope
rederswllndobeccessblevsulzonsooencomplexopcsndmehodologes.Weseleced
rommongSTARTsprojecshosehhvelredyyeldedconcreendpolcy-relevnndngs,len
hemselveswellovsulrepresenonndrepreseneddversyoSTARTsreserchhemes.
hepresenonoheseprojecsdeprsromhesndrdcdemcorm;ndeed,hs
reecsheprmrypurposeoheviwomkeSTARTsreserchccessblendneresngonudencebeyondrdonlcdem.hejourneyowrdshecreonoheviwcovered
unmlrbulwysneresngground,yewehvecomeobelevehhsprccesvluble
oneorencourgnghencorporonoscencreserchndngsnorel-worldproblemsolvng
nddecsonmkng.hesmeme,werelzehnorderorheresulsoSTARTsreserchobe
kenserously,hescencebehndhemmusbernspren.hereore,weprovdehyperlnksorech
oheprojecsdescrbednherevew,whchwllkerederseherdreclyomorecomprehensve
descrponsohereserchnvolved,oroprojecpgeowhchddonlresourcesreledohe
projecwllbeddedsheybecomevlble.
Follownghehghlghedprojecs,weprovdebrenroduconsncludngsummryndngs
wherevlbleoechoheoherreserchprojecslunchedn5.Weencourgerederso
exploremorecloselyhoseprojecshspurhernereshroughhelnksprovdedorbyconcng
STARTdrecly.WelsosuggesvsngheSTARTWebsewww.stat.md.d,whchconnsr
moreexensvecolleconoreserch,polcyndeduconresourceshncnbedescrbedhere.
errorsmndsvrouscuses,processesndeecsonsoceyrelkelyoremnpromnen
securyconcern.hebesresponsesohshrerehosedrvenbyclerundersndngohesephenomen,nundersndnghmusbebseduponsoundscencreserch.Wehopehhe
presenonoSTARTsreserchnheollowngpgeswllbrodenyourhnkngonhesessues
nddemonsrehevluehhesoclscencescnbrngoddressngsuchvlproblemss
prevenngrdclzonhledsovolence,selecngpolceshvodexcerbngerrors
cksndbuldnggreerreslencenourcommunes.
ncerely,
G . ndMw
eserchevew 2009 Edits
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w | 2
,
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Methodology Psreserchhsdemonsred
posverelonshpbeweennndvduls
needorclosureorneedorcernynd
chrcerscsocollecvsm.hreeprelmnry
sudeswousngunversysudensndhrd
nvolvngelderlyuchrespondenssuppor
heollowngconcluson:Ingenerl,someone
whhgherneedorclosuresmorelkelyo
seekn-groupdencon,supporough
counererrorsmpolcesndpreerrgdleder
overnopen-mndedone.Usngdromhe
STARTInernonlurveyseep.,reserchers
ssessedheneedorclosuremong,7
respondensnEgyp,PksnndIndones,s
wellsherorenonsowrdcollecvscgols,ncludnglevelsossoconwhrelgon
ndnon.
esercherslsolookedorhepresenceo
collecvscswch.Expermenlevdence
hdndcedhbohrecllondexernl
eedbckboupsluresweressocedwh
showrdcollecvsmoverndvdulsm.
onvesgehsnheconexoIslmc
exremsm,heInernonlurveysked
respondensbouheexenowhchheyhve
succeededonherpersonlgolsndwheher
prensmjorgolshouldbeoensureh
herchldrenconrbueohernonndher
relgonndcngcollecvscorenon,or
ohelphemnpersonlsuccessconssen
whnndvdulscorenon.
Ls,reserchersesedhelnkbeween
collecvsmndsuppororvolencenboh
nInernesurveyo,respondensrom
Muslm-mjorynons,ndnhece-o-ce
InernonlurveysnPksn,Indonesnd
Egypwholnumbero,7respondens.
hesurveyskedrespondenswheherhey
prmrlydenedsnndvdulors
membersohernonorrelgonndssessed
hersuppororcksgnsheU..mlry
ndU..cvlns.
results hehreechrsrghshowhe
vergeresulsorechcomponendscussed
bove.llnlysesconssoMuslm
respondensonly.
ottoie hereserchndceshn
lesseverlMuslm-mjorycounres,
hghneedorclosurehs,lowoleronor
uncernyslnkedocollecvscgols,nd
hosewhlowerlevelsopercevedsuccess
emphszecollecvscgolsorherchldren,
suppornghedehpersonlluremy
rggerswchromndvdulscocollecvsc
gols.Collecvscgolsrenurnlnkedo
hgherlevelsosuppororcksgnsboh
Wesernmlryndcvlnrges.hesendngsrempornbohordenynghose
mosrskorsupporngorenggngnerrorsm,
swellssuggesngoclponsorcounerng
suppororerrorsmnheIslmcworld.
Formorenormononhsprojec,plesevs:
www.stat.umd.edu/rR09/poj2.
Underlying MotivationsT R U, F Ex
Arie Kruglanski
(
)
(
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)
failure
failure
toleranceforuncertainty
tolerance
foruncertainty
toleranceforuncertainty failure
fa
ilure
needf
or
certainty
needforcertainty
failure
su
ccess
success
need
for
certainty
failure
success
The diagram at let illustrates various paths to individualism, collectivism and the
connection to support or terrorism that highlights this research. w | 2009
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w | 2009
W
-?Fm
,mk
BMARO
b.
Methodology ARsd-drvennlycleorocusedonorgnzons
hclmorepresenehncgroups
deemedobemnoresrsk.ARghers
normononbohvolenndnon-volen
orgnzons,llowngorcomprsonsbeween
hewo.heprojeccollecsdon5vrbles
overme,nheollownggenerlcegores:
nznL
eg deology ledershp grevnces
nzn- Ln
eg represson negoons
xnL pp
eg oregn se dspor
nznL B
eg ypes rges nd locon
o volence
ARhsdenedorgnzons
represenngheneressoehncgroupsn
heMddleEsndorhrclsednhekey
belowoperngbeween9nd.
Results helemosclellusreswhere
orgnzonslllongheproes-volence
connuum,whorgnzonsdsplyng
greerlevelsovolencerherohe
rgh.crossheopohemoscre
lsedorgnzon
sgncnlywhe
predleconorvo
oechlereprese
whchheorgnz
Fyoheseorg
volencenpursun
hveckedonl
ssecuryorces
orgnzonshvoncedurnghsp
numberoorgnz
smllerperceng
volencenowsco
lrgerproporo
orproess.Ishou
whchermnen
developmensnI
ottoie Or
democrcgols
polcsrelesslk
Orgnzonsh
governmens,h
hrecevesuppo
morelkelyousev
henumberoorg
pursungelecorl
resulopolcll
shuspromsng
colleconwllexe
Europe,ouhs
oheMddleEs
slsounderwy.
Formorenorm
www.stat.umd.edu
Key lw rbs zerbjns Berbers ruze
Kurds MroneChrsns Plesnns hrws
w | 2
Mosaicof Minority ViolenE- z E
Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Amy Pate & Victor A
RGz MR
LkL RG vL F :
j
-
RGz MR
LkL GG vL
F :
RGz L
LkL GG vL
F :
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FR RG RL F R URU R U
GFL RL R URU R U
URvLR RL R URU R U
Ecooiceeddedessohostcoutry
hemorehegroupshoscounryrdeswhhe
Unedesorheworld,hegreerhelkelhood
hgroupwllpursueoruseRNwepons.Why?
Perhpsbecusecounreshenggenmore
rdereusullybeernegredwhglobl
owsoknowledgendmerlsneededoproduce
RNwepons.
Alliaces henumberollncerelonshps
ormedwherrorspeersssronglyreledo
pursuoRNwepons.Why?Probblybecuse
neworkconneconsreuseulnovercomnghe
knowledgendmerlsbrrersneededon
RNweponscpbly.llnceembeddedness,
whchreecshedehhellnceshmer
mosrehosewhgroupshrehemselveswell-
conneced,sevenmoresronglyreledoRN
weponspursuhnhebscllncecoun.
Orgaiatioaleershi errorsgroups
whlrgermembershpsremorelkelyohve
memberswhskllsneededobulddevce.Lrger
groupsmylsohveccessogreerbseo
nnclndmerlsuppororRNconsrucon.
Ournlyssweklysupporshsconcluson,.e.,
he%levelosgncnce.
Statesosorshi esponsorsmyhelp
errorsorgnzonsgnccessoresrced
knowledgendmerlsneededobuldRN
wepons.Conversely,non-sesmywsh
okeephererrorsclensromusngRN
weponsorerhhesponsorwllbeheld
ccounbleorheclenscons.heevdence
supporshelerconcluson.
Techologydeveloet(i
aita) Inheory,errorsorgnzonshosed
nechnologcllydvncedcounresmynd
eserondmerls,equpmenndsklled
personnelhngroupsbsednless-dvncedhoss.
Inprcce,hssnorue.Why?Possblybecuse
nInerne-enbled,globlzedworldmkes
eserocqureknowledgendporousborders
mkepossbleornserscrcemerls.
Religiousideology cholrshvesuggesed
hrelgouslynspredorgnzonsremore
lkelyopursueRNerrorsm.heresulsdd
nosupporhsssumpon.elgousgroups
remorehoroughlylledwhonenoher,so
relgonmersonlynsorscles
llnces.Inc,relgonmycullybe
plceholderorbundleooherchrcerscs
hhelpopredcRNuse.
Orgaiatioalage Iwshypoheszedhhe
longererrorsgrouphsbeennoperon,he
morelkelysobebleodevelopheexperse
ndresourcesneededorRNckndhe
morerusredmghbecomewhconvenonl
cks.However,olderorgnzonshseeko
belegmepolclorgnzonsmyevenully
belesslkelyouseRNwepons.Weoundwek
evdence.e.,%sgncnceorhscomplex
relonshp.
oxic Connections Oz F U
Ackerman, Victor Asal & . Karl ethemeyer
earsocivilwar omeheoressugges
hledorsressedsesremorelkelyo
provdehvensorerrorsorgnzonsndher
developmenoRNwepons.Ourresulssugges
heoppose:hemoreyersocvlsrenhehos
counry,helesslkelygroupsherereoseekRN.
errorsgroupsndsurbedsesmybemore
ocusedonndbleouseconvenonlmehods,
mkngRNweponslessrelevn.
Culturaleeddedessohostcoutry
CulurlnegronwhheWessproxedby
henumberoMconldsresurnsnhegroups
hoscounryendsoreducehelkelhoodoRN
pursuoruse.CounresexposedoWesernnorms,
suchshebhorrennureoRNwepons,
myrnserhosesndrdsoerrorsenes
bsedhere.
Ieeriece esulsshowhnexperenc
groupsdenedshosewhohvecommed
orewercksrelesslkelyoempoRNwepons,possblybecusegroupsneed
buldupoperonlexpersendsel-cond
beoreempngocqurehem.
FR RG RL F R
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Methodology Oneresonorhepucy
oreserchnhsrehsbeenhelcko
comprehensvedonerrorsorgnzons.
Menngulresulsreonlypossbleone
compresorgnzonshhvepursuedor
usedRNweponsohevsmjoryhhve
no.esercherslevergeddromhe
MonereyWepo
dbse,heGlob
errorsOrgnz
swellsnewlyco
sgncnceosev
ndconexulc
errorssdecson
hereserchem
odon95err
99nd5,nc
pursuedRNwe
Results errors
seekodevelopor
1 re bsed n s
economc conn
ndor
2 re embedded
srucures nd
3 Hve lrge n
Conrryosugge
reserchersled
beweenRNpurs
deologyorses
provdesmorede
swellsoncoreducedlkelhood
ottoie On
errorsgrouppur
quesmll:o
nherenlmon
opredcngheu
nlysssuggess
menonedeure
lkelyopursue
mjoryosuchg
olookechyp
wellsoherype
smeurcells
versonsohsyp
exremelyuseulo
nellgencegenc
nderlydeeco
Formorenorm
www.stat.umd.edu
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w | 2009
oughall
a,97
heBrshpeclr
ervce(SAS)crry
ourgeedkllngs;
eghRAmemberswere
ssssnedMlry
ocus.
OeratioMotora
,97
uhoreslunched
lrgemlryengge-
men,rmed
servcepersonnelo
elmnenogoreso
LondonderryndBels
Mlryocus.
allsCurew
,975,97
uhoresnsued
-hourmlrycurew
ndserchoperon
desgnedoloceI
membersndwepons
sockples.Homeswere
dmged,ndour
peoplewereklled
Mlryocus.
Iteret
A.9,97D.5,975
uhoresdened,9
suspecederrorss,95
percenowhomwere
Cholcorepublcns
CrmnlJusceocus.
Criialiatio/
Ulsteriatioa,97
t.,9
uhoresreedjled
errorssuspecss
crmnlsrherhn
polclprsonersnd
rnserredsecuryo
orhernIrelndromhe
Brshmlryohe
loclpolceorce
CrmnlJusceocus.
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691992.
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dology oreserchdeerrennd
hdynmcs,STARTreserchersnlyzed
cksbyepublcnerrorsorgnzons
hernIrelndrom99o99,scoded
Globlerrorsmbse(TD)nd
menedbyddonlevensnheConc
onheInerne(AN).hecks
dhosebynoonlyheIrshepublcn
RA),bulsooherepublcngroupssuch
rshonlLberonrmyndheIrsh
LberonOrgnzon.
nervenonshSTARTesedwerehe
rew,nernmen,OperonMoormn,
mnlzon/Ulserzonprogrm,nd
ghllndGbrlrrgeedssssnons
ureordels.hesenervenons
osenbecuseheywerewell-knownnd
eheyrepresenedvreyocrmnl
ndmlryresponses,sndcednhe
BecuseohecomplexyoheconchernIrelnd,numberoconrolvrbles
dedoccounorrvlexplnons.
rblesncludedhenumberormed
norhernIrelndoneyerproro
ck;nndcor,Bloodyundy,h
conrolsorhepossbleescloneecs
romhspvolncdenn97;henumbero
Loylscksdurngheprevousmonh;he
successoecherrorssrkebsedonhe
speccmehodsemployedndnon-errors-
reledcrmendcrmnlvolenceoverme.
herngeocounererrorsmnervenons
provdesndequeesohempco
counererrorsmmesuresondeerrence
ndbcklsh.hemodedversonoCoxproporonlhzrdmodelccounedorhe
vronbeweencksnorderoesme
hempcoechnervenon.
Results epublcnerrorscksroseer
heFllsCurewndnernmennves,ell
erOperonMoormnnducueddurng
hecrmnlzonprogrmusednhele97s
nderly9s.generlrendonncrese
nepublcncksollowsheLoughllnd
Gbrlrncdensn97nd9,respecvely.
ottoie hreeohesxBrsh
nervenonsnernmen,crmnlzon/
UlserzonndGbrlrnorhernIrelnd
producedbcklsheecnncresedrsk
ouurecks.OnlyOperonMoormn
resuledndeerreneecdecresedrsko
uurecks.FllsCurewndLoughllwere
nosgncnoreherbcklshordeerrence.
hsreserchlrgelysupporsheconenonh
hrshmlryndcrmnljuscenervenons
nresponseoerrorsmndpolclvolence
reoenunsuccessulndcnevenbe
counerproducve.hepoenlexssopply
deerrenndbcklshmodelsoddonlres
opolclconc.Iremnsobeseenwheher
smlrnervenonswouldhvesmlreecsohoseseennorhernIrelnd.
Formorenormononhsprojec,plesevs:
www.stat.umd.edu/rR09/poj7.
eterrence or Backlash? B
I
Laree, Laura ugan & aven Korte
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w | 2009 w | 2
b,START
,
...
b
,b
.
dology hesurveywsconduced
nprl7ndFebruryon
nvesmpleo,householdsnhe
nlUnedes.hreehgh-vsbly
ewYorkCy,LosngelesCounynd
erWshngon,.C.,rewereover-
dsohgenerlzonscouldbemdeo
wellsohenonswhole.
veyexploredourquesons:
t have meicans done to pepae fo
ist acts and disastes?
t steps have meicans taken to avoid o
ce exposue to teoism?
t motivates meicans to pepae fo
ism in paticula, to pepae fo disastes
neal and to avoid teoism isk?
can policy and pogams to incease public
iness fo teoism accomplish moe?
nreserchndheorybouwh
eshouseholdrednessbehvor,d
lecedonhemnycorshmgh
publcredness,ncludng:psevens
nced;heypes,sourcesndchnnelsover
whchnormonhdbeenreceved;cves
hrespondenshdobservedohersdo;he
percevedeecvenessoderenprepredness
ndvodncecves;sel-reporedknowledge
bouerrorsmprepredness;perceveduure
rskodssershcouldechehome,
communyndnon;percevedreslenceosel,
communyndnonouuredsserevens;
perceponsohecompleenessndhonesyo
normonprovdedbygenceshelocl,se
ndnonllevelsndsndrddemogrphcchrcerscs.hedwerehennlyzedusng
seresosophscedssclmodels.
Results hendngsdescrbeheseo
preprednessndrskvodncebehvor
hroughouhenon,nprculrnewYork
Cy,LosngelesCounyndheWshngon,
.C.,rendcrosshenonsmjorrcl/
ehncmnorygroups.rongndclerevdence
wsdscoveredbouheundmenlprocesses
hmovemercnsoprepre,processes
hurnedouobeconssencrossll
geogrphcresndehncsubpopulons.
Mossurprsng,heresulsreveledhpeoples
perceponsbouheleveloerrorsmrsk
orherrusnlllevelsogovernmendono
echerpreprednessbehvor.Whmers
mossheknowledgepeoplehvebouwh
odoopreprendhoweecveprepredness
slkelyobe.hssgoodnewssncemples
hherereplblephwysbywhchpublc
rednessorerrorsmndoherdsserscn
bencresednheUnedesbyexpndng,
mprovngndrepengpublceduconnd
normoncmpgns.
Formorenormononhsprojec,plesevs:
www.stat.umd.edu/rR09/poj8.
m pb p
opryngoconvncepeopleheyrersk:Ihsnogood
eeconpublcpreprednessorvodncebehvor.
Provdepublcnormonromsmnyderensourcesnd
whsmuchconssencycrossllmessgesspossble.
srbuenormonoversmnyderenchnnelsspossble,
soenspossblendoverexendedperodsome.
ellpeoplewhheyshoulddoopreprendwhereondou
morebouhowodo.
ellpeoplehowherconscnreduceherlosses;dongve
hemrskesmes.
upplemenmessgeswhphysclndsoclcues.
Mkepublcrednessvsblendubquous.
Gepeopleolkbourednesswhechoher,oencourge
mllngorvrleec.
A portion o the survey examined the preparedness or
avoidance actions Americans have taken. Preparedness
actions surveyed included whether respondents had
developed emergency plans, stockpiled supplies, purchased
things to make them saer, learned more about terrorism,
duplicated important documents or become more vigilant.
Respondents were also asked about avoidance actions,
specifcally whether they had avoided travel by plane, train
or public transportation, changed their handling o mail,
avoided certain cities, avoided tall buildings or avoided
national landmarks. This fgure illustrates the responses
received rom 3,300 survey respondents.
ublic Preparedness for Terrorism N D Ex
a ourque, ennis Mileti, Megumi Kano & Michele Wood
-
8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online
14/27
w | 2009
b
k
-
.START
CART
.CART
k,
,bq
.BbCART,b
.
Methodology ARTsnnegredpckge
hprovdesgudnceonhowosmule
communymembersocommunce,o
denyndnlyzecommunyproblems,nd
okecon.herssepnheARTprocess
socollecdemogrphcsndnervewnd
surveykeyskeholders.Communymembers
resurveyedonems,whchrngerom
wheherheyeelconnecedohercommuny
owheherheybelevehhecommuny
prepresordssers.hessessmenprocess
cnbemodedwhhehelpoprnersnhe
communy,developngunquereslenceems.
nlyssocommunysrenghsndchllenges
consueshenexsepnheARTprocess.
hsnvolvesenggngocusgroupsnd
employngohergroupprocessessuchshe
elphmehod,nomnlgroupechnque,nd
nfnydgrm.Fnlly,heprocesscn
urnosregydevelopmen,mplemenon,
nddopon,swellsddonlssessmen
cves,whchprovdeeedbckhroughou
heprocess.heresulsheconsruconoproleohecommunyhprovdesn
ssessmenooverllcommunyreslenceo
errorsmnddssers.
Results hreem
reunderwy.n
generngresden
ncommunyrene
neghborhoodsn
ARTsconrbung
preprednessprog
neghborhoods,w
communy-wde
5,resdenss
rechmulpleconbsedsupporor
seconddmnsr
recenlybeencom
sgeordenc
reslencegolsn
orfledvolun
resbegnnng
voluneersnden
orbuldngcomm
ottolie ss
hroughARTsmul
nlyssndcon.
communyssel-w
ndcollboronu
reslenceoerrors
doeshecommuny
whoprcpenh
knowledgeoheco
wellsheroleoh
ndmgonoer
heExendedCom
eslenceool(A
developmen,wll
ndnsrumensc
ncludegeoreeren
neghborhoodour
ART-wlldenyprepredness,resp
Formorenorm
www.stat.umd.edu
Y
COECOMMUIYEILIECEIEM*
1 cvely prepre or uure dssers
2 Work wh gences ousde he communy
3 Bul nrsrucure
rods schools hospls rnsporon sysems
4 People eel lke hey belong n he communy
scuss ssues o mprove he communy
6 wreness o communy ssues
ervces nd progrms o help people er dsser
8 People hve hope or he uure
People help ech oher
10 compeen workorce
11 People re reed rly
12 People know where o go o ge hngs done
13 People re ble o ge he servces hey need
14 Eecve leders
1 Emergency servces durng dsser
16 Communcon wh leders
1 url resources ol pors rmlnd
18 sser prevenon
IEMOHOW
1 People commed o he well-beng o he communy
20 People creng soluons o mprove he communy
21 Communy lerns rom ps successlures
22 Communy solves problems o rech gols by developng
skl ls nd ndng resources
23 Communy ses uure gols nd prores
*Eachitemcontibutestotheoveallesilienceofacommunity.
heCARTsuveyalsoincludesdemogaphicsanditems
developedinconjunctionwithpatnesinvolvedinany
paticulaimplementation.
Community ResilT R T
etty Pfefferbaum, ose Pfefferbaum &
w | 2
-
8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online
15/27
vw | 200922
-Q
atiat
eborhC
t
njpek,usnllenndvdPyne
Rati
hat tnds an b idntid ass
mssags m al-Qaidas ladship?
tnds in th lads mssags lat t th
atins al-Qaida?
ta
tRaii
hsprojecexmnescommuncon
rendsn57messgesdelveredv
vdeondheInernebyOsmbn
Ldenndymnl-Zwhr.he
resercherssudedEnglshrnslons
ohesemessges,developngcodng
schemesodenyhemesndrgorously
nlyzelngugepernswhnhe
messges.Fndngshusrndceh
communconbyl-Qdsledershp
chngesovermenresponseopolcl
chngesnhenernonlren.he
hemesevolvedromhehreoU..
orcesnheMddleEsowhl-Qd
presenedsU..wronIslm.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj10.
M w
atiat
ereyM.Ble
Rati
hat a sm th ky haatistis
th vais ndgnd Islamist
ganizatins and jihadist ntwks
pating in th st? pial mphasis is
plad n idlgis, plitial and statgi
bjtivs, ganizatinal stts,
gistial and patinal apabilitis and
dmntd ativitis.
ta
tRaii
heprojecexmnedprmrysources
ncludngdeologclreses,Webses,
publcsemens,judclmerlsnd
reporsproducedbypolcendsecury
servcesndrelblesecondrysources
wrenbyscholrsndjournlss
delngwhIslmsgroupsndneworks,
ncludngjhdscells.hereserchnds
hIslmsgroupsoperngnheWes,
howeverdversendconlzed,endo
llnooneohreeprmrycegores:
proselyznggroupshhvedoped
grdulslong-ermsregyoIslmze
heWeslkeheMuslmBroherhood,
exremelyrdclgroupshemporrly
eschewvolenceorbohheologclnd
cclresonslkezbu-hrrnd
heso-clledjhdss,.e.,volenrmed
groupsobsessedwhwgngjhdo
hesword.hereserchlsorevelsh
heosensblynon-volenIslmsswho
reemployngsophscedgrduls
sregyonhegemonyoverMuslm
dsporcommunesnd,ulmely,o
IslmzeheWessel,myposehe
greeslong-ermsecuryhreohe
Wes.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj11.
M u
u Gu
-
atiat
JonhnWlkeneldndVcorsl
t
nhonyLemeux
Rati
hat ats an nag gp
mbilizatin? hat is th t sial
and psnality ats n an individal s
sppt xtmist viws and tatis?
hat is th impat sltiv inmatin
n th pbability that an individal will viw
tism as lgitimat apppiat?
ta
tRaii
eserchersperormedscenro-bsed
smulonexpermensnvolvnghumn
prcpns,swellsqunvenlyses
oheresulngd.Fndngsrevelh
hghlevelsogrevnceprculrlyn
heormooppressvedscrmnon
hvehepoenlomoveerrors
cks,prculrlymongpeoplewhore
hgheronhepsychologclscleoocl
omnnceOrenon,mongseverl
ohersrucurlndsocl/personly
corshwereunderconsderonnhs
reserch.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj12.
U..
atiat
BerUseemndObeClyon
Rati
hat a th sial dynamis gading
th spad xtmist idlgis amng
pisns? hat a U.. tinal
agnis statgis ntlling th spad
ths idlgis?
ta
tRaii
Usngnervews,STARTreserchers
colleceddonhepresenceordcl
deologesmongnmesndonhe
sregesndpolcesdevelopedby
correconlgencesonhbher
spred.nlysesrevelhhelevel
oprsonerrdclzonnheUned
essmodes.Orderndsblyn
U..prsonshvebeenchevedsresulosrucuredreorms;prsonofcls
hvesuccessullymplemenedeorso
counerhemporonordclsm;
ndcorreconlledershvenused
n-rdclzonnohemssonoher
gences.oneheless,heprobbly
oprsoner-generederrorsmsbove
zero,ndconnuedvglncesneeded.
hesregesorcurbngrdclzon
ncludecloselymonorngrelgous
personnelwhoprovdeservceson
educonndoherprogrmmng
buldnmescondencenheru
ndeecvecoordnonwhexe
lwenorcemenoensureherpd
ccureowonormon.
Formorenormononhsreserc
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj13.
M u
u
: L
atiat
ouglsM.McLeod
t
FrnkP.rgrove
Rati
hat a xtmists mmniatin
statgis in th anas in Indnsia:
mdia, ntnt atd by xtmist g
inlding b sits and intpsna
mmniatin? hat is th lativ im th mdia mpad t th mbili
mhanisms in Indnsian sity?
ta
tRaii
STARTreserchershvebegunusng
conennlyssocodendclssy
mssmedsourcesndhvecondu
reserchonmoblzonprocesses
Indones.eserchdemonsres
mgeryreledoheIslmchsor
concepoheClphssrongmo
whnMuslmdscourse,ndhp
zelosreoenswepnohepol
expressonojhdwhleendngs
sudygroups.hereserchlsosug
hmssmeddonohvepus
nordclsm.e.,medpersus
rher,heyhvepullrolenwh
rdcllyorenedMuslmsseekou
hreechernernlneress
renorceexsngpredsposons.
Formorenormononhsreserc
www.stat.md.d/AR09/pj14.
Project Summaries | Projects Launched in 20052007 gp Fmn nd mn
-
8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online
16/27
vw | 2009
atiat
usnCuerndnshengGuo
Rati
hat is th histial and ggaphi
distibtin tist ativity? Fth,
what a th ntxtal sial, plitial and
nmi nditins in latins wh
tist ativity s?
ta
tRaii
heprojecnvolvedgeo-reerencng
lldonerrorevensncludednhe
Globlerrorsmbse,mergedwh
geo-reerenceddromheMemorl
InsueorhePrevenonoerrorsm,
heCenreoreence&Inernonl
ecuryudesndheeeprmen.
dvncedsplmodelngssessedboh
me-ndlocon-bsedpernsnhe
d.esulsshowherrorsncdens
nheUnedesrelrgelyproduco
mercnscnggnsdomescrges
hroughouhenon,whconcenronsnheorhes,FlordndheMdwes,
swellsonheWesCos.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj15.
atiat
ClrkMcCuley
Rati
Can w dvlp a dynami mdl th
intatins btwn tist atin and
stat spns?
ta
tRaii
errorsscounonseresponseo
hercksordclzendmoblze
errorssymphzers.eresponse,o
heexenhnjuresorourgeshose
lesscommedhnheerrorss,does
orheerrorsswhheycnnodoor
hemselves.hssheerrorssregy
ojujsupolcs:usnghegovernmens
greersrenghgnssel.Counerng
hssregyrequresvodngcollerl
dmgenghngerrorsmndcrmnl
juscemehodsypcllyproduceless
collerldmgehnwrre.From
hsperspecve,dynmcmodelohe
nerconsbeweenerrorsconnd
seresponsewllneedoncludehe
ollowngelemens:pprslohe
mpcoerrorscon,ncludngpublc
semens,onerrorsmsymphzers,
errorsmsupporers,possblymulple
udencesnhesecked,nd
possblyrelevnbysndergroupsnd
ses;pprslohempcose
responses,ncludngpublcsemens,
onerrorsmsymphzers,errorsm
supporers,possblymulpleudences
nheseckedndpossblyrelevn
bysndergroupsndses;nd
Connulupdngohesewopprsls
shecycleocksndresponses
connuesoverme.oehhesehree
elemensnsnewogenerlesh
relredymlr:errorsmspolcs,
ndsuccessgnserrorsscnnobe
evluedbycounngdederrorss.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj16.
u Mu :
u
atiat
ClrkMcCuleyndophMosklenko
Rati
Und what imstans ds lgal
ativism lad individals t illgal plitial
atin, inlding tism? Can tndnis
twad patiipatin in lgal and illgal
plitial atin ativism vs. adialism b
masd in pplatin svys? hat is th
din btwn slims wh sympathiz
with tist gals and slims wh jstiy
tist attaks?
ta
tRaii
hsprojecnlyzedpollsoBrssh
MuslmsndSTARTsurveysoMoroccns,Egypns,PksnsndIndonesns.
Inlndngssuggesncresnglevelso
symphyorrmnghewronerrorsm
swronIslm.hssymphysno
predcedbyrelgosy.Ispredced
beerbypolclpreerenceshnby
socoeconomcrusronorperceved
dscrmnon.nonechnclprmer
onconcepulzngndmesurng
rdclzonnsurveyreserc
developmen.
Formorenormononhsre
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj17
x (M
atiat
GryckermnndJereyBl
Rati
In spit thi appant idlgi
dins, might tain adial
lt-wing gps in th st ll
patinal lvl with tansnatin
tist ntwks sh as al-Qai
ta
tRaii
hesudybuldsheoreclm
cross-deologclerrorscoll
ncorporngllncendgm
hemodeldemonsresh,
unlkelyndcngseverlobs
operonlcollboronbew
le-orrgh-wngndIslmsgroupsspossble.hsheore
sbengesedgnsemprc
onwdevreyoerrorsgr
Prelmnryresulssuggessub
cross-deologclrheorclsup
lessevdenceooperonlco
ndhhegreeshrem
romrgh-ndle-wngexrem
undergoconversonoheIslm
seekobrdgehesederen
Formorenormononhsre
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj18
Source: Glbal ism atabas
-
8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online
17/27
24 vw | 2009
F
u x u
w : Mu
u x
atiat
vdWesburd
Ra
Bdss,monPerry,lJonhnnd
Glvv
Rati
Hw has th maj hmland sity l
th Isali Pli infnd th tivnss
pli in mbating dinay im and
disd pblms? Hw has it infnd
pbli attitds twad and xptatins
al pli agnis?
ta
tRaii
hsprojecsusngcommunysurveys,
hsorclnlyss,nlysesopolce
dndnervewswhcommuny
members,communyledersndrered
polceofcls.Inlndngssuggesherrorshreshvesgncnmpc
uponpolceperormnce.Overll,shre
evelsrse,clernceresoousndng
csesdeclne.Ishypoheszedh
enonoerrorsmdrwsresources
wyromrdonlpolceuncons.
hesmeme,ncesndownswh
rgerbmjoresheeecohre
sreversed,whhghererrorshre
evelsssocedwhhgherclernce
res.Ishypoheszedhhghres
osurvellncenheseresdurnghgh
hreperodsledoheobservedresuls.
urngheecondInd,suppornd
generlposveudesowrdhepolcencresed.shehredeclned,
publcudesreurnedoprevous
ndevenlowerlevels.hesendngsre
hypoheszedoreecrllyeec
durngperodsohghhre.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj19.
u- :
-v
atiat
EmmnuelKrgnns
ndClrkMcCuley
Rati
hy has Hizb t-ahi mgd in Cntal
sia? s Hizb t-ahi, a nn-vilnt
adial Islami ganizatin in Cntal siaand lswh, psnt a viabl altnativ
t militant Islam, ds this gp sv as
a sppt nit tist gps with simila
plitial gals .g., al-Qaida th Islami
vmnt Uzbkistan?
ta
tRaii
Inervewswereconducedwhscholrs,
securyexpers,mullhsndmms,
journlss,dploms,governmenofcls
ndgroupsymphzersnKzkhsn,
Kyrgyzsn,jksn,urkmensn,
Uzbeksn,Lebnon,GreBrnnd
hePlesnnerrores.Fndngs
suggeshherseozbu-hrrn
Cenrlshscomplexorgns.re
economccondonsnheregonhve
provdederlesolorIslmsgroups
egerochngehesoclorder,lkezb
u-hrr.lso,zbu-hrrhsbeen
bleomoblzesupporhroughsocl
neworksndnormlnsuons,nd
hssold,myserous,nnclresources.
Moreover,somepeoplerercedo
heprospeconIslmcgovernmen
propgedbyhegroupdueohelcko
legmechnnelsorproesgnshe
uhorrngovernmensoCenrls.
Inddon,zbu-hrrhsrmeds
msnwyshwllgenerepopulr
ollowng.Fnlly,hedsnegron
oheoveUnonhsproducedn
deologclvcuummongCenrlss
devouMuslmshhsbeenlledby
zbu-hrr.hesudylsocompred
zbu-hrrwhvolenIslmcgroups
nCenrlslkel-Qdndhe
IslmcMovemenoUzbeksn.zb
u-hrrsnerpreonoerlyIslmc
hsoryexplnssnon-volenpolcl
mehodology.hereore,hegrowng
populryozbu-hrrnCenrls
suggesshepossblyoencourgng
rdclIslmhdoesnosuppor
errorsm.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj20.
M u? x
U M
u
atiat
Gryckermn
Rati
hat a th bhavial and thnlgial
mhanisms bhind hangs in th instmnts
t? hat is th t mging
thnlgis n tists wapns sltin,
patilaly in th ntxt s-alld wapns
mass dsttin (WMD)?
ta
tRaii
hesudyocusesuponvrousmodelso
echnologclchngehrebegnnng
obeusednsoclscence,prculrly
heconcepodsrupveversussusnng
echnologes.hsssupplemenedby
csesudesoweponsnnovonnd
duson.Prelmnryndngsconrm
hmnyohesrucurlelemens
onnovondusondescrbednhe
busnessoperonslerurepplynhe
cseoweponsngenerlndDn
prculr.pecclly,hechoceodop
newweponsnodeermnedsolelyby
nsrumenlconsderonsosregc
orccldvngebuslsouncon
oculurlcompbly,orgnzonl
dynmcsndndvduludes.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj21.
: x
G
atiat
onelldellPor
Ra
MnuelCnndCludusWge
Rati
hat is th nat th latinship a
xtmist gps in Italy and Gmany,
hw d ths latinships impat th
bhavis gps? Hw d xtm
wing adial gps am thi agnda
idlgy t nag mbilizatin
gvnmnt atin?
ta
tRaii
Csesudeswereconducedon
exreme-rghpolclpres,pol
movemensndsubculurlsknhe
groupsnIlyndGermnyusng
omehodologesndsourcesode
herderenproperesrmensoclneworknlyssndproes
nlyss.nlysesshedlghonhe
cognvemechnsms,communc
dmenson,movonsndworldv
orgh-wngrdclzon.ocln
nlyssbsedononlnelnksbewe
exremsrgh-wngorgnzo
ndceshIlnndGermnex
groupsncresnglyuseheInerne
propgnd,recrumenndnern
communcon.owever,derence
emergedbeweenhewoconexs.
Ilnexreme-rghneworkppe
beveryrgmened,hghlydverse
dfculocoordnepolcephlonework,wheresheGermnne
sdenserndmuchmoreconcenr
onewcenrlcorssrsruc
hesederencesremnlydueo
polclopporunysrucuresnh
counres.showedhheex
rghnbohcounresusesvre
reperorehppelsovrous
consuences.Formsoconde
Project Summaries | Projects Launched in 20052007 gp pn nd dYnm
-
8/8/2019 2009 START Research Review Online
18/27
vw | 2009
ypeogroup,buheyrelsompored
romopposegroupsheleswells
hesubculurlmleu.Esclondevelops
oendurngconcswhheperceved
enemy:helesnhe97s,bulso
mgrns.Fnlly,looknghermes
usedbyheexremergh,weound
mxordonlvluesndnnovve
subculurlelemens.Especllyn
Ily,heopposonocvlrghssoen
brdgedwhconservvenerpreonoCholcsm.speccconemporry
elemenshereerenceossuessuch
sgloblzonoroprecrous
generon.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj22.
w
w
atiat
Vcorslnd.Krlehemeyer
Ratihat a th lsts tist gps
nntd by thi ngagmnt in simila
tist atins? Cnvsly, what lsts
tist atins .g., hstag-taking,
bmbing, siid bmbing, t. a nntd
by th tist gps pptating thm?
ta
tRaii
hereserchemhscolleceddeled
normononhemoslehlerrors
orgnzonsoperngroundhe
worldsnce95,whdcolleced
seresomenervlsoverhegroups
exsence.heresulnd,knowns
heBg,lledndngerousdse,
ncludesnormononorgnzonl
chrcerscs,ncludngdonllnces
oechgroupwhohererrors
orgnzons,swellswhoher
orgnzonsbohvolenndnon-volen.
ochscnlysesohesenewd
ndcehsomeorgnzonsreprone
oconnecordspreresons,ndh
heenemyomyenemylogc,deology
ndregonlcorsrekeyconsderons
nheormonocross-groupllnces.
Inlnlyseslsondcehhemos
neworkederrorsorgnzonsrelso
hemoslkelyobelehl.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj23.
U Gu
atiat
ClrkMcCuley
Ra
GryLFree,LurugnndJuleung
Rati
Hw and why d gps dsist mtism? what dg is dsistan
tiggd by ats intnal t an
ganizatin vss bing tiggd by
xtnal nsidatins?
ta
tRaii :
hsreserchocusedoncsesudesn
whchgroupsshowedsuddendessnce
romerrorsm,nmelyherm
ecrermyorheLberon
heJusceCommndosohe
Genocde,ndheIslmcGrou
ssclmehodwsused
mpcsospeccevensonh
ogroupcks.esulsndc
rpddemseoerrorsgrou
oncolleconocors,nclud
ledershpspls,groupsson,
securebse,dsporsuppor
symphzers.obly,rpdd
ollowederrorsmskesn
rgengbeyondwhsymp
supporerswouldcounennce
Formorenormononhsre
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj24
LG
N Tit t a
1
2
61
163
3610010121
N Tit t Stat
04 14
134
3106
1031
gLBLmdB(gd)
heGloblerrorsmbse(TD),drecedbyGryLFreendLurugn,connsnormononover,errors
cksrom97o7ndsnowhemoscomprehensveunclsseddbseonerrorsevensnheworld.Moreh
wodozenSTARTreserchprojecsrecurrenlyusngheTD,ncludngreserchonheeecvenessocounermesuresuse
bygovernmens,hempcoerrorssregesonherblyosusncks,hesplconcenronoerrorscoverme,heexenowhcherrorsmoccursnwves,ndcsesudesospeccerrorsgroupsnderrorscvywh
counres.PublcpolcynlysshroughougovernmenrenowusngheTD.InMrch9,heTDrecevedcerce
orecognonromheeprmenoomelndecuryscencendechnologyrecoreorsconrbuonsohelpn
governmendpsregesorcounerngdedlycks.
gdgLg:
Identiesmorethan27,000bombings,12,000assassinationsand2,900kidnappingssince1970
Includesinformationonthedateoftheevent,targetandlocation,typeofattack,numberofcasualties,perpetrator
suspecedorknownndoverohervrblesorecheven
Providesdetailsonmorethan1,200terroristeventswithintheUnitedStatessince1970
Compiledusingmorethan3,500,000newsarticlesand25,000newssources
Received36,000visitorstotheTDWebsehersmonhwsonlne
occesshelesversonoheTD,vs:www.stat.md.d/gtd.
u.s.terroristevets70007 Source: Glbal ism
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Project Summaries | Projects Launched in 20052007L pn nd K
u:
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atiat
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hat is th val ativ llabatins with
itizns and ivil sity gps in ppaing
, spnding t and ving m an
xtm halth vnt sh as bitism?
ta
tRaii
eserchersrevewedrelevnlerureon
hesocologyodssersndepdemcs
ndheheoryndprcceopublc
prcpon,ndheyconducedguded
dscussonsndormlelconrom
expersndprconerswhocomprsed
heprojecsWorkngGrouponCommuny
EnggemennelhEmergencyPlnnng.
Bsedonheormlevdencendonhe
proessonljudgmenoworknggroup
members,hesudycounseledU..decson
mkersobuldpublchelhprepredness
nsuonshncorporeczennpundcollborewhcvlsocey
groups.uchprnershp,heprojec
concluded,wllenhnceofclsbly
ogovernncrss,mprovepplcon
ocommunlresourcesndhelpreduce
nevenssoclndeconomccoss.he
cvcnrsrucurepeoplewholve,voe,
ply,workndworshpogehershould
benvolvednemergencyplnnngnd
cbeore,durngnderneven.Cvc
groupscnhelpofclsdecdendvnce
whogesscrcemedclresources,gved
whenheproessonlscnnobeherend
comorsurvvorsoverme.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj25.
u F u
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atiat
Khleenerney
t
Jenneeuon
Rati
Hw a hmland sity pgams bing
implmntd at th lal lvl in typial U..mmnitis? hat statgi and planning
gidan an b d basd n data abt
hmland sity pgams?
ta
tRaii
Inervewswereconducedwh
represenvesors-responder
gences;governmengences;publc
helh,medclndmenlhelh
orgnzons;schooldsrcs;med
oules;orgnzonsrepresennghe
busnesscommuny;ndhevolunry
ndcommuny-bsedsecor.ocl-
neworknlysshslsobeenulzed
nhssudy.pecclly,hereserch
hsocusedonUrbnreecury
Inve(AS)communesnheUned
esdesgnedbyheeprmeno
omelndecuryshgh-rskregons.
FndngsndcehASundngnd
DHSgudncehvemprovedregonl
coordnonndcollboron,bu
numberoobsclesocooperonremn,
suchsdomnnceolrgeceswhn
regonsndsenvolvemennAS
progrms.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj26.
x:
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atiat
usn.Jones
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Hw did Bcllusnhrcs, a batim that
ass th agiltal disas anthax,
bm a bilgial wapn? hat lssns
an b land m th as anthax
abt sital pptin and spns t
bilgial thats?
ta
tRaii
hereserchexmnedpublcnd
scencreconsonhrxoubreks
hroughouhsorybycollecngnd
nlyznghsorcld,ncludng
governmendocumens,publshedrepors,
scencrclesndunpublshedd,
newspperrcles,surveysndrcles
rompopulrjournls.Csesudesrom
derenresoheworldncluded
nhrxnrmnmls,oubreksnwool
coryworkers,hedevelopmennduseobologclweponsdurngWorldWrs
IndII,heresponseoheverdlovsk
oubreknhe97sndheU..nhrx
leerckso.Baills anthais
unquebologclproperesmde
devsngdseseorhumnsndher
lvesock,buprculrsoco-hsorcl
processreshpedhsmcroorgnsm
nobologclwepon.Inhemodern
er,nhrxoubrekshvencedpncs
ndershmnyhvechrcerzed
souoproporonoheculhre
orourresons:hedsesehs
longhsorynddedlyrepuon;he
orgnsmsblyosporulemenshseslydssemnedswepon;
hsbeenusednhepsswepon
gnshumns,orspredccdenlly,
nheUnedes,heormerSSR,
souhernrcndMnchurnd;
despelleors,wehvenobeenbleo
domescendconnBaills anthais.
Muchmorecoordnonndruly
negrednvesgvemehodolog
needednorderorespondquckly
eecvelyobologclhressuch
nhrxck.
Formorenormononhsreser
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj27.
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ury,JohnMcClellnndmKuh
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ta
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hsreserchemployedqunve
qulveexulnlysesoerro
relednewscovergecrosselecr
prnndelevsonmed.revew
exnreserchconcernngmedc
oerrorsmoundneedorcomp
mulmodlsudesoerrorsmrep
ndrsedquesonsconcernngwh
newspernsnelecroncmed
resemblehoseordonlmed
sources.Usngcenerngresonnce
nlyssRA,d-mnnglgorh
ndqulvenlyss,sudyom
covergeohe7Bosonbombs
oundewdscernblederencesc
medchnnelsdurnghewo-wee
cycleonewscoverge,whchocus
mnlyoncreporng.Czenme
bordsndblogs,however,rmed
ncdennermsoheep.c
revelnghowsuspecedcsoer
renerpreednrelonohco
even.secondsudyonewsdsco
ollownghe7/7Londonbombng
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vw | 2009
5exmnedhowmgesoreslence
soldedorundermnedsenseo
nonlunyndshpedpublcresponses
oerrorsm.Bohsudesexplnhow
elecroncmedservescrclse
orssessngndprcpngnpublc
dscussonsbouerrorsmndor
dscernngheconesedndconrdcory
menngsohomelndsecury.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj28.
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s ppsd t physial vlnabilitis, hw d
w mas th sial vlnability hazads
at a nty lvl ass th Unitd tats?
ta
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oclvulnerblysdenedshesocl,economc,demogrphcnd
housngchrcerscshnuence
communy'sblyorespondo,cope
wh,recoverromnddpolrge-scle
hzrds.STARTreserchersmplemened
heoclVulnerblyIndexoVI,
whchsynheszessocoeconomcnd
envronmendvrbles.scl
nlyssreveledhemossgncn
componens,echowhchwsnegred
nonndexmesurehrepresens
hesoclvulnerblyorhecouny.
oclvulnerblyvresgrelyeven
whnndvdulses.hecorsmos
requenlyssocedwhhghsoclvulnerblyreurbndevelopmen,rcl
ndehncdversyndlowsocoeconomc
sus.Conversely,corsmosrequenly
ssocedwhlowsoclvulnerblyre
uence,homogenouswhepopulon
ndyouhulpopulon.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/AR09/pj29.
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hat a th likly ats that will dit hw
th pbli ats t a waning a maj attak,
gading mmnity vaatin, shlting in
pla and bilding pant vaatin?
tatRaii
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recordndsynheszngheheoresnd
knowledgeonpublcproecvecon-
kngncommunesndbuldngs,useul
ndccessbleproducshbrdgehe
gpbeweenreserchndprccewere
developedorhehomelndsecury
communy.Generlzonsbouhowo
mngeresponsecon-kngnclude:
heconenohepublcwrnnghs
dsrbuedplyskeyrolendeermnng
whconshepublcdoesnddoesno
ke,sdowrnngmessgerepeon
overnumerousnddversechnnelsocommuncon,ndhevlblyo
vsulcueshsupporwhssdn
hewrnngmessge.summryohe
essenlelemensoncludenwrnng
hsbeenproducedswellswrnng
messgeempleorwrngpublc
wrnngmessgesbsedonreserch
evdence.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj30.
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hat a th isk atins amng divs
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that?
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heprojecocusedonprepredness
ndreslencewhrespecohomelnd
securyhreswhnlower-ncome
communesndohergroupsresdng
ndenselypopuled,culurllydverse
ndpoenllyvulnerbleurbnres.I
sbsedonemprclevdencecolleced
hroughocusgroupsndnnlysso
chngngrskcommunconsdurng
henhrxepsode.Prelmnry
ndngsndcehdurngerlysges
oerrorsmncdens,undermny
crcumsnces,ndvdulscnccep
hheremybeuncernynrsk
esmes.owever,rusnlederss
rglendshreenedcommuncons
gnoreuncerny,commcern
errorsorloreerencemporn
proecedculurlvluese.g.,rness.
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vulnerblecommunes,lsenegve
communconerrorspremure
ressurncesseemobemoredmgng
olong-ermcredblyhnlse
posveswrnngshneverrnsle
nopredcedevens.hsssgncn
becuseprelmnrynlysesonl
crsscommunconssurroundnghe
nhrxcksreveledendency
omnmzeuncerny,opremurely
suggesnsgncnrskwhoudeque
evdence,ndooverlookvlueconcerns
opoenllyecedpopulons.
Oherprelmnryocusgroupndngs
suggesculurlderencesnusng
precuonryprncpleodecde
wheherocomplywhhomelndsecury
recommendons.
Formorenormononhsreserch,vs:
www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj31.
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hat insights an b gland int
ppadnss an mgny
a tist that, in U.. pimay
snday shls?
ta
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Web-bsedsurveywsdmn
smpleo,prmrynds
schooldsrcsroundhecoun
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preprednessoschoolsorne
hssudyoundhschoolnd
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ornemergencywhencome
nemergencycrsspln.pec
schooldmnsrorsrepored
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dsrcdmnsrorsrepored
ddnoncludeplnnngorerr
suchschemcl,bologcl,r
nuclerndexplosvencdens
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dsrcdmnsrorsrepored
ddnoncludeplnnngorp
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oschoolpreprednessnclude
resources,rnng,mend,or
dsrcs,hersoledrurlloc
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www.stat.md.d/rR09/pj32
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28 vw | 2009
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Ongoing Research Projects
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pl:
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START Researchers
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vw | 2009
Education Programshrough curriculum development, scholarship and fellowshipprograms and intensive research training, START trains and mentorsthe next generation of terrorism scholars and analysts.
p-pl
STARTsPre-ndPosdocorlerrorsmeserchwrdProgrmundso
grduesudensndjunorscholrsperyer.nce5,heerrorsm
eserchwrdshvesuppored7dvncedgrduesudensndjunor
scholrs.Psopcshvencludederrorsgroupsprovsonosocl
servcesoloclcommunes;reconsopolcysmovonorsuppor
oerrorsgroups;locl-levelnellgenceoperonsnmjorces;nd
errorsgroupweponsprocuremen.
p
STARTsUndergrdueeserchProgrm(R)undsveoundergrduesudensperyeroprcpenculy-ledreserch
projecswhleconducngcomplemenryndependenreserch.he
5sudenssupporedbyRundshvesudedopcsncludngrsk
communcondurnghomelndsecurycrses;geogrphcprolngo
crmescommedbydomescr-rghexremsgroups;sepolce
perceponsohresromerrorsndexremsgroups;ndheroleo
personlexperencesosocldenynndvdulsuppororerrorsm.
gly
In,STARTwlllunchnonlne,open-enrollmengrduecercen
errorsmnlyssheUnversyoMrylnd.heprogrmwllprovde
prcpnswhdvncededucononhecuses,dynmcsndmpcs
onernonlnddomescerrorsm.Prcpnswlllsodevelop
hemehodologclskllsnecessryopursuedvncedreserchonnd
nlyssoerrorsm.heprogrmconsssoourrequredcourses:
MotivationsandIntentsofTerroristsandTerroristGroups;
SocietalImpactsofandResponsestoTerrorism;
DevelopmentofCounterterrorismPolicyandPrograms;and
ResearchMethodsinTerrorismandCounterterrorismStudies.
heprogrmcnbecompleednmonhs.Formorenormon,plese
see:www.stat.md.d/stat/datin/gadat_tiat.
m
STARTlsooersnundergrduemnornerrorsmsudeshe
UnversyoMrylnd.Inhscross-dscplnryprogrm,sudensenroll
nsequenceocourses,whheobjecvesodevelopng:
acomprehensiveunderstandingofthetheoriesexplaining
heormonoerrorsgroupsndhemovonsbehnd
errorsbehvor;
acomprehensiveunderstandingoftheimpactofterrorismon
groupsndndvduls;
rsthandexperienceworkinginthehomelandsecurity communy;nd
acapacitytoconductresearchonterrorismusingarange
onlycloolsndreserchmehods.
udenslsohveheopporunyoprcpenreserchsssnshps
onSTART-undedprojecs,speclcoursesreledohesudyoerrorsm
ndSTART-runsudybrodprogrmocusngonWesernEuropen
perspecvesonerrorsmndcounererrorsm.
dlp
STARTsCreerevelopmenProgrmoersundng,cdemcmenorng
ndproessonldevelopmenopporunesorUnversyoMrylnd
sudenswhsrongrecordsocdemcchevemennddemonsred
commmenoheeldohomelndsecury.
lml
urnghe9cdemcyer,STARTwlllunchcollecono
currculummerlsbsedonmjorSTARTreserchprojecs.ponsored
bySTARTsnewCurrculumevelopmenGrnProgrm,modulesn
developmennclude:
OnlineSimulationModeledonNovember2008MumbaiAttacks;
ModularApproachtoRadicalizationandTerroristMotivations;
EngagingandCounteringtheSocialandCulturalMechanismsUsed
byOrgnzonsoMoveucdeckers;nd
RiskManagementandAnalyticTechniques.
ModuleswllbevlblehroughSTARThedqurersndwllbe
ncludednheSTARTOnlneyllbeposory:www.stat.md.d/stat/
datin/syllabi.
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32 vw | 2009
it
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errorism and its variouscauses, processes and eectson society are likely to remain
a prominent security concern.he best responses to thisthreat are those driven by aclear understandin o thesephenomena, an understandin
that must be based uponsound scientifc research.
Acknoledgements his matial is basd pn wk spptd by th in and hnlgy ditat th U.. patmnt Hmland ity nd gant awad nmbs00140510629 and 2008-ST-061-ST0004, mad t th Natinal Cnstim th tdy ism and spnss t ism (START, www.stat.md.d. h viws and nlsins nin this dmnt a ths th aths and shld nt b intptd as nssaily psnting th ial pliis, ith xpssd implid, th U.. patmnt Hmland ity
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vw | 2009
nly
Cnt Exlln th U.. patmnt Hmland ity
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