2009 Results Presentation - London Stock Exchange · 2009 Results Presentation Madrid, February the...
Transcript of 2009 Results Presentation - London Stock Exchange · 2009 Results Presentation Madrid, February the...
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2009 Results Presentation
Madrid, February the 23rd of 2010
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Any declaration made in this presentation that may differ from previous past figures made in reference to, but not limited to; the operational development, business strategies and future goals, are to be interpreted only as future estimates, and as such, they imply known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause OHL´s results, behaviour and achievements, or the results and conditions of its activities, to be substantially different to those and to its future estimates.
This presentation and the future estimations contained here within, are given on this date and OHL expressly declines from any obligation or compromise to give any update or revision of the information contained here within, any change in its expectations or modification in the facts, conditions and circumstances in which these future estimates were founded.
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Pages
Economic
Environment
3 to
6
OHL Position
7 to
12
2009 Results
13 to
20
Main
Activities
21 to
31
Strategy
32 to
34
2010 Estimates
35 to
36
Summary:
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Economic EnvironmentWorld and Spanish Financial Crisis
In August 2007 the world financial crisis surfaces due to:
End of expansion phase in 2006
Wrong and excesively expansive monetary policies applied
Failure of the systems of financial regulation and supervision
Inappropiate practices within some financial institutions
Burst of the real estate bubble
In Spain three different crisis happen at the same time:
The world financial crisis
The real estate crisis. Caused by the over dimension of the homes construction segment
The competitiveness crisis, with consumption and investments reaching the end of the expansion phase, causing an annual external deficit of 10% of the GDP
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Economic EnvironmentWorld and Spanish economies overview
The world economy as a whole is improving since 2Q09:
Germany, Japan and France begin to show positive rates in the 2Q09 and USA and Italy in the 3Q09
Nevertheless, many doubts arise over the consistency of the recovery due to:
Important dificulties persisting within the financial sector
The excesive dependance of the recovery on the extraordinary aid packages of measures adopted by the Governments
In Spain the economic recovery is showing to be slower:
The real estate sector is still holding back the growth
The homes leverage levels and the unemployment rates continue to be very high and hold back the private consumption growth
The public leverage level has rised up to 55,2% as of 2009 year end
The Public Deficit has been of 11,4% of the GDP in 2009. In 2013 it should be of 3% or less, which will drive to a cut on the consumption public expenditure
With less private consumption and less public consumption an increase of exports would be needed to reach an aggregate demand that allows for growth
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Macroeconomic Data 2008 2009 2010P
GDP Growth
(1) 0,9% -3,6% -0,6%
CPI (2) 1,4% 0,8% 2,0%
Construction
GFCF (2) -5,8% -11,3% -9,5%
CEB interest
rates
(3) 2,5% 1,0% 1,0%
Public
Deficit
(2) 3,8% 11,4% 10,8%
Unemployment
Rate
(4) 13,9% 18,1% 19,3%
(1)
IMF(2)
Funcas(3)
BBVA Studies Service(4)
OCDE
Economic EnvironmentSpanish Economy Data
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7
Pages
Economic
Environment
3 to
6
OHL Position
7 to
12
2009 Results
13 to
20
Main
Activities
21 to
31
Strategy
32 to
34
2010 Estimates
35 to
36
Summary:
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Successful strategy established in 2002 (anticipating the current concerns):
Strong growth in Concessions
Strong growth in International Construction
Taking advantage of the good moment of the civil works in Spain
Sharp decrease of residential construction since 2002
Exclusion of any real estate activity
Financial discipline and confidence
Permanent needs covered with long term financing
Short term credit lines to cover seasonal needs
Important and permanent liquidity position
Without refinancing needs
Without assets disposal needs
Recourse Net Debt / Recourse EBITDA ratio always below 3 times
“Investment Grade” rating during 8 consecutive years (2001-2009), only interrupted due to the change of the Rating Agencies criteria during the crisis
OHL PositionOHL well positioned against the crisis
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OHL Positioncotizacion
42 49 57
102 105
141151
166
020406080
100120140160180
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
5.95910.65612.75018.39826.67032.75653.04561.332
2.7293.309 3.717
4.2245.114
5.302
6.0245.395
010.00020.00030.00040.00050.00060.00070.00080.000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1.7722.112 2.231 2.443
3.2783.764 4.009
4.390
0500
1.0001.5002.0002.5003.0003.5004.0004.5005.000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
188 229 262 285
489543
608
747
0100200300400500600700800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turnover (€ mn) EBITDA (€ mn)
Net Profit (€ mn) Orderbook (€ mn)
CAGR:+21,8%
CAGR:+21,6%
CAGR:+33,8%
■
Long term
■
Short term
2002-2009: important and sustainable growth
CAGR:+13,8%
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10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
31-12-02 30-6-03 31-12-03 30-6-04 31-12-04 30-6-05 31-12-05 30-6-06 31-12-06 30-6-07 31-12-07 30-6-08 31-12-08 30-6-09 31-12-09
OHL IBEX-35 Avg. other construction companies (1)
•
The
share
price
performance reflects
the
successfull
strategy
and
the
good
results
obtained
•
Generation
of
value
for
the
shareholders:•
25% distributed
as dividend•
75% reinvested
in the
Group generating
a 32,2% ROE (2)•
100 euros of
31/12/02 turn
as of
31/12/09 into:•
469 €
invested
in OHL•
188 €
invested in the average of the other construction companies•
OHL joins
the
Ibex35 in June 2008
OHL Positioncrecimiento
(1) Average of
construction
companies
quoted
(without
OHL)(2) As of
2009 year
end
Share
price
performance (31/12/02 –
31/12/09)
–
OHL CAGR: +24,7%–
Avg. other
c.companies
CAGR (1):
+9,4%–
Ibex35 CAGR:
+10,2%
2002-2009: Share price performance
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20%
9%29%
42%
37%
4%17%
42%
4%
83%
11%2% 4%4%
88%
4%
Orderbook EBITDAFixed Assets
14%2%
61%23%
OHL Position
OHL Domestic
Constr.
OHL International Constr.
OHL Concessions
Other
Turnover Workforce
OHL Concessions Group (2009 figures)
61% of EBITDA and 88% of the orderbook corresponding to Concessions
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OHL PositionOHL International Group (2009 figures)
86%
14%
OrderbookTurnover
59%41%
EBITDA
88%
12%
International
Domestic
America: 9USACanadaMexicoEquatorBrazilChileArgentinaColombiaPeruCentral Europe: 7Zcech
RepublicaSlovach
RepublicHungaryMontenegroBosnia HerzegovinaBulgaryRumaniaAsia: 3AzerbaiyanTurkeyQatarAfrica: 1AlgeriaSpain: 1TOTAL: 21
Currently operating in
88% of EBITDA and 86% of orderbook abroad
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Pages
Economic
Environment
3 to
6
OHL Position
7 to
12
2009 Results
13 to
20
Main
Activities
21 to
31
Strategy
32 to
34
2010 Estimates
35 to
36
Summary:
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•
Strong growth of every main financial magnitude•
Net profit grows +9,9%. If not taking into account the disposal of finantial instruments in both years, such variation would have been of +66,1%
2009 Results
(€ mn) 2009 % 2008 % % Var.
Turnover 4.389,5 100,0 4.008,8 100,0 +9,5%
EBITDA 746,9 17,0 607,6 15,2 +22,9%
EBIT 534,6 12,2 422,7 10,5 +26,5%
Net Profit 165,6 3,8 150,7 3,8 +9,9%
P&L – Main Figures
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2009 Results
The turnover rises +9,5% mainly driven by Concessions and International Construction despite the fall in Domestic Construction
(€ mn) 2009 % 2008 % % Var.■
OHL Concessions 742,6 17 542,4 13 +36,9%
■
OHL International C. 1.829,9 42 1.429,1 36 +28,0%■
OHL Domestic
C. 1.604,4 37 1.786,4 45 -10,2%
■
OHL Industrial 28,1 1 25,5 0 +10,2%■
OHL Developments 55,1 1 105,5 3 -47,8%
■
OHL Environment 129,4 3 119,9 3 +7,9%TOTAL 4.389,5 100 4.008,8 100 +9,5%
Turnover
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2009 Results
Despite the difficult macroeconomic environment the EBITDA grows +22,9% due to the impulse of Concessions and International
Construction
(€ mn) 2009 % 2008 % % Var.■
OHL Concessions 455,9 61 339,9 56 +34,1%
■
OHL International C. 173,2 23 111,1 18 +55,9%■
OHL Domestic
C. 105,0 14 120,8 20 -13,1%
■
OHL Industrial (0,5) 0 1,6 0 n/a■
OHL Developments 0,1 0 14,9 3 -99,3%
■
OHL Environment 13,2 2 19,3 3 -31,6%TOTAL 746,9 100 607,6 100 +22,9%
EBITDA
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2009 ResultsNon current assets and Debt
•
Infrastructure concessions concentrates 88% of the investment effort carried out at Group level in 2009 and currently represent 77% of total investment
DEBT (€ mn) 2009 % 2008 %
•
Gross Recourse
Debt 1.269,8 29% 1.138,4 32%
•
Gross Non Recourse
Debt 3.183,8 71% 2.382,2 68%
Total Gross Debt 4.453,6 100% 3.520,6 100%
•
Net Recourse
Debt 730,1 21% 716,6 26%
•
Net Non Recourse
Debt 2.717,2 79% 2.038,8 74%
Total Net Debt 3.447,3 100% 2.755,4 100%
NON CURRENT ASSETS (€ mn) 2009 % 2008 %
•
OHL Concessions 4.935,3 77% 3.570,3 73%
•
Other 1.477,1 23% 1.294,2 27%
Total Non current Assets 6.412,4 100% 4.864,5 100%
•
70% of Gross Debt is long term debt•
Strong Cash & Equivalents position of € 1.006,2 mn•
Recourse Debt at a controlled level (Recourse Net Debt equal to Recourse EBITDA (1) multiplied by 2,5)•
59,6% of Gross Debt at fixed rates
(1) Recourse
EBITDA = Total EBITDA –
Concession’s EBITDA
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2009 Results
•
Total Recourse liquidity available as of 2009 year end of € 1.287 mn
•
Increase of the recourse credit lines availability during the year•
Continue obtaining long term debt to cover permanent needs
Recourse liquidity available (€ mn) 2009 Final Maturity
Euro bonds 600 May 2012
OHL ZS bonds 16 June 2010
Syndicated
Facility 47 January
2011 (1)
Revolving
Sindicated
Facility 213 January
2011 (2)
Short Term
credit
lines 1.021 Yearly
review
Other
(Commercial discount, mortgages
and
other) 120
Total Recourse
availability 2.017
Recourse
financing
used 1.270
Recourse
financing
available 747
Recurse
Cash & Equivalents 540
Total Recourse
liquidity
available 1.287
Liquidity & Maturity Profile as of 31/12/09
(1)
Semi-annual
maturities
in January
and
July. Annual
ammounts
of
€
31 mn in 2010 and €16 mn in 2011
(2)
Annual
maturity
in january: €
22 mn in 2010 and €
191 mn in 2011
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2009 ResultsCapital increase
As of December 2009, OHL launched a capital increase to:
Improve its financial structure:
Increase Shareholders Equity from € 784 mn to € 1.104 mn in 2009: +40,8%
Support its strategy of maintaining a healthy financial structure
Strengthen its capacity to take advantage of new growth oportunities, specially in Concessions and International Construction
Largely successful:
Full commitment of the main shareholder, Grupo Villar Mir, that guaranteed and underwrote its stake (57,16%)
9 times oversuscribed
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2009 2008
2009 Results
Long TermShort Term
61.332
5.395
96% corresponding to OHL Concessions
14,7 months of total sales 8,1%
91,9%53.045
6.02410,2%
89,8%
-10,4%
+15,6%
+13,0% 59.068
66.727Total Orderbook (€mn)
Short & Long Term Orderbook Performance
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Pages
Economic
Environment
3 to
6
OHL Position
7 to
12
2009 Results
13 to
20
Main
Activities
21 to
31
Strategy
32 to
34
2010 Estimates
35 to
36
Summary:
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Main ActivitiesBussiness Structure
OHL Domestic
Construction
OHL International Construction
OHL Concessions
OHL Environment
OHL Developments
OHL Industrial
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2009 Orderbook
Mexico45%
Brazil37%
Spain10%
Chile5%
Peru2%
Argentina1%
Constant and important growth:
Ranked #7 in the world as highways concessionaire according to the 2009 Public Works Financing ranking
Most important investor in toll roads in Latin America
25 principal concessions:
20 in operation 5 under construction
21 highways (4.400 Km) , 2 railways, 1 port and 1 airport
Geographical presence:
Strategic countries: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Peru and Spain
60% stake in OHL Brasil with a market cap of more than 5 times the investment made
Preference for majority holdings (72% on average)
Minimun profitability target for the equity of 15% annually accrued in €
Main Activities
Main Figures
(€ mn) 2009 2008 % Var.
Turnover 742,6 542,4 +36,9%
EBITDA 455,9 339,9 +34,1%
Orderbook 58.799,3 50.425,4 +16,6%
OHL Concessions
Turnover EBITDA
2005-2009 CAGR +31,3% +31,6%
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Operation as of December 2009 of 28 out of the 29 toll plazas of the Federal roads in Brazil (Planalto Sul, Fluminense, Fernao Dias, Regis Bittencourt and Litoral Sul)
Beginning of operation in November 2009 of a 5,5 Km tranch of the Bicentenario Viaduct in Mexico
Increase from 32,8% to 49,0% of the stake in Toluca airport on September 25th of 2009
Increase of the stake in Amozoc-Perote from 55,0% to 69,2% on October 15th of 2009
Acquisition of a 50% stake in the port of Alicante, reaching a 100% ownership, on October 16th of 2009
9,72% stake sold on August 30th of 2009 of I-2000 (company that owns 100% of the chilean concessions of Sol and Libertadores). The Group continues to control the company with a 65,3% stake
Main ActivitiesOHL Concessions – 2009 highlights
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Country Stage Km Total Investment % OHL OHL Equity Traffic avg./day (1)
Argentina Operation 60 340 71% 100,1 208.46560 340 100,1 208.465
Brazil Operation 316 421 60% 103.160Brazil Operation 218 353 60% 61.709Brazil Operation 376 621 60% 141.447Brazil Operation 237 330 60% 78.207Brazil Operation 320 681 60% 84.770Brazil Operation 562 912 60% 233.323Brazil Operation 402 1.138 60% 278.801Brazil Operation 382 875 60% 209.993Brazil Operation 413 472 60% 63.221
3.226 5.803 101,4 1.254.631Chile Operation 132 171 65% 74.472Chile Operation 119 146 65% 36.671Chile Construction/Operation 92 329 100% 37,5 13.823
343 646 67,2 124.966Spain Operation 8 109 100% 0,1 76.565Spain Operation 9 426 100% 179,5 9.120Spain Construction/Operation 56 247 95% 15,8 94.591
73 782 195,4 180.276Mexico Operation 52 87% 127.360Mexico Construction 103 100% NAMexico Operation 123 194 69% 45,3 25.731Mexico Construction 32 166 100% 4,0 NAMexico Construction/Operation 32 1.404 100% 131,2 13.861
342 3.518 482,3 166.952Peru Operation 356 204 100% 4,2 14.164
356 204 4,2 14.1644.400 11.293 75% 950,6 1.949.454
Rio deJaneiro-Espirito Santo
Sao Paulo-CuritibaCuritiba-Florianópolis
Viaducto Bicentenario
Brazil
Chile
Spain
1.754 301,8
Autopista Los LibertadoresAutopista Los Andes
Sao Paulo-Belo Horizonte
Curitiba-Rio Grande do Sul
Autopista del Sol
101,4Vianorte
29,7
Highways
Mexico
PeruAutopista del Norte
Conmex (Fase I)Conmex (II, III y IV)
Total Highways
Amozoc-PeroteLibramiento Norte de Puebla
Aecsa
Autopista M-12Autovía de Aragón - Tramo 1
Autovía M-45
AutoviasCentroviasIntervias
Argentina
Main ActivitiesOHL Concessionss – Main concessions - I -
(2)
(1)
The
avg/day
traffic
corresponds
to
paying
equivalent
vehicles
in every
case with
the
exception
of
M45 and
Aragon
Highway
–
Tranch 1 that indicates the average daily intensity (ADI)
(2)
Includes
equity and long term contributions
of
debt
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Country Stage Operated Facilities Total Investment % OHL OHL Equity Passengers/
Year
Spain Operation 22 Km 2 Lines 925 51% 65,9 7.445.563Spain Construction 15 Km 1 Line 424 100% 116,2 NA
Spain Operation30 Ha. Inner
Harbour and 1.275 m. Berthing line
106 100% 24,1 227.055
Mexico OperationAirport services,
complementary & commercial
970 49% 87,0 2.397.777
2.425 61% 293,2 10.070.39513.718 72% 1.243,8 NATOTAL
Total Other
Toluca Airport
Metro Ligero OesteCercanías Mostoles-Navalcarnero
Port of Alicante
Other
Main ActivitiesOHL Concessions – Main concessions - II -
(1) Includes
equity
and
long term
contributions
of
debt
(1)
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Country Concession TRAFFIC PERFORMANCE TARIFF REVISION
2009 (vehicles) 09 / 08 Var. % Revision (4) Date
Argentina Aecsa
(1) 208.465 -2,9% 1,9% December
09
Brazil Autovias
(1) 103.160 -0,6% 7,8% July 09
Centrovias
(1) 61.709 +1,6% 10,0% July 09
Intervias
(1) 141.447 -0,1% 7,7% July 09
Vianorte
(1) 78.207 -1,7% 7,5% July 09
Planalto
Sul (1) 63.221 n/a - -
Fluminense (1) 84.770 n/a - -
Fernao
Dias
(1) 233.323 n/a - -
Regis Bittencourt
(1) 278.801 n/a - -
Litoral Sul (1) 209.993 n/a - -
Chile A. Sol (1) 74.472 +4,6% 5,1% Feb./July 09
A. Libertadores (1) 36.671 +1,3% 3,7% January
09
Autopista Los Andes (1) 13.823 +0,4% 13,7% January
09
Spain Euroglosa
M-45 (2) 76.565 -1,0% 1,3% January
09
Eje Aeropuerto (1) 9.120 -13,8% 6,3% January
09
Metro Ligero Oeste (3) 20.399 +7,9% 1,4% January
09
Mexico Amozoc –
Perote (1) 25.731 +36,1% 5,8% January
09
Conmex
I (1) 127.360 +6,4% 6,0% January
09
Viaducto Bicentenario (1) 13.861 n/a - -
Peru Autopista del Norte (1) 14.164 n/a - -
TOTAL 1.875.262
(1) AADT: Annual
Average Daily
Traffic(2) ADI: Average Daily
Intensity(3) Passenger
Number
Daily
Average(4) Average tariff
increase
for
each
toll
gate
Main ActivitiesOHL Concessions – concessions in operation: Traffic & Tariffs
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2009 Orderbook
Constant and important growth:
Four ways of growing:
Countries with a permanent presence through acquisition of local companies (USA and Central Europe)
Countries with permanent presence historically (Mexico and Chile)
Construction linked to own concessions (Mexico, Chile and Peru)
Other countries only if the strict and sellective requirements established are met (Qatar, Algeria and other)
Stability at orderbook level despite the large weight that the sizeable Qatar and Algeria awards had in 2008
Main Figures
(€ mn) 2009 2008 % Var.
Turnover 1.829,9 1.429,1 +28,0%
EBITDA 173,2 111,1 +55,9%
Orderbook 2.660,1 2.716,5 -2,1%
Chile5% Mexico
12%
Central Europe
23%
USA24%
Peru7%
Qatar24%
Algeria5%
2009 Main Awards € mn
Bicentenario Viaduct, Mexico 284,3
Red vial nº
4, Peru 177,2
Miami Motorway
interchange, USA 160,8
Miami Orange line
subway, USA 140,6
Main ActivitiesOHL International Construction
Turnover EBITDA
2005-2009 CAGR +26,8% +37,7%
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Main Activities
The Spanish construction sector has historically played an excessive principal role where its gross added value represented in 2007 11% of the GDP, as compared to the 6% average rates of the European Union
The mentioned excessive size of the sector is partially healthy, in the portion represented by investment in infrastructures, developed with the aid of the EU structural funds that reached a quote of 1,5% of the GDP
But the main reason of this oversized sector comes from the residential investments, that reached in 2007 a 9% quote of the GDP compared to the 5,8% quote of the EU
As a result of this the real estate activity is suffering a severe adjustment:
Sharp decrease in sales: from a monthly average of 80.000 homes in 2007 to the current figure of 35.000 homes
Dramatic decrease of the start up of new homes: from 700.000 per year in the most active years to the current 200.000
OHL Domestic Construction – Relative Position of Spanish Construction Sector
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30
2009
2010Previsions
2005 - 2020
The PEIT execution should guarantee the civil engineering activity in the long term
Main Activities
Construction sector turnover (1): -21,5%
Civil engineering: +3,4%
No-residential building: -18,8%
Residential building: -55,0%
Public Bidding (2): € 40.000 mn, similar to 2008 level
Cement consumption (3): -33%
Fuentes: (1) Euroconstruct(2) BOE (by announcement
date)(3) Oficemen
The Public Works Ministry has announced its intention to maintain the bidding levels:
The Budget for 2010 contains an investment of more than € 19.000 mn that, according to the Emergency Action Plan for 2010 would suffer an adjustment of € 1.760 mn
Extraordinary Investment Plan in Infrastructures: € 15.000 mn budget with financing 50% from BEI, 20% from ICO and 30% from banks and construction companies
OHL Domestic Construction – Construction Sector in Spain, 2009 and Future
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31
Turnover decrease around 10%
Civil engineering represents 67% of the turnover and 74% of the orderbook
Non-residential based building (hospitals and other singular buildings)
Residential building represents only 8% of Domestic Construction turnover
The EBITDA coming from residential construction is of less than 1% of the Group’s EBITDA
OHL Domestic ConstructionMain Activities
Main Figures
(€ mn) 2009 2008 % Var.
Turnover 1.604,4 1.786,4 -10,2%
EBITDA 105,0 120,8 -13,1%
Orderbook 2.603,4 3.220,6 -19,2%
2009 Main Awards € mn
SE-40 highway, Sevilla 81,5
Santa Justa –
Airport railway axis, Sevilla 75,0
A-3 Highway
enlargment, Valencia 46,0
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32
Pages
Economic
Environment
3 to
6
OHL Position
7 to
12
2009 Results
13 to
20
Main
Activities
21 to
31
Strategy
32 to
34
2010 Estimates
35 to
36
Summary:
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33
Strategy - I - Operational
OHL CONCESSIONS
Group’s
core
business
Concentrates
the
Group’s
investment effort
Debt
held
in non-recourse
basis and
in local currencies
OHL INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION
Strong
commitment
with
the
prudent
criteria:
OHL DOMESTIC CONSTRUCTION
Concentrated
in civil engineering
Very
selective
building:
OHLINDUSTRIAL
Acting
as constructor or
supplier
of
complete industrial plants:
OHL DEVELOPMENTS
High
standard
projects
in areas
of
touristic
and
historical
interest
OHL ENVIRONMENT
Worldwide presence
in water
desalination
ad purification
concessions
Growth
of
non-residential
Decrease
in residential
with
tendency
to
disappear
Minimum
15% on
site
margin
Positive cash flow
since
commencement
Collections
guaranteed
Not
only
constructor
In Spain
and
abroad
Consistent strategy settled in 2002
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Strategy - II - FinancialFinancial Discipline and Security
Permanent needs covered with long term debt
Short term credit lines only to meet seasonal needs
Important and stable liquidity position
Recourse Net Debt / Recourse EBITDA ratio allways below 3 times
Concessions financed in non-recourse basis and in local currencies
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35
Pages
Economic
Environment
3 to
6
OHL Position
7 to
12
2009 Results
13 to
20
Main
Activities
21 to
31
Strategy
32 to
34
2010 Estimates
35 to
36
Summary:
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36
2010 Estimates
Continuity of the strategy applied since 2002
More than +10% growth forecasted at Turnover, EBITDA and Net Profit levels, in line with previous years
Maintenance of the financial policies:Discipline and transparencyNet Recourse Debt / Recourse EBITDA < 3 times
Possibility of disposal of non strategic assets