2009-nelson2.ppt
9
Rod Nelson Schlumberger Erice
Transcript of 2009-nelson2.ppt
Rod Nelson
Schlumberger
Erice
Technical Innovation – A Constant Wild Card
2
Source: BP Statistical Review, IEA Oil Annual Summary, Monthly Oil Market Report, Medium-Term Oil Market Report, Lehman/Barclays. Revised 0309
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
62.5
75
87.5
100
112.5
125
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
E&P
Expe
nditu
res
($ b
illio
n)
Spare Capacity
Oil P
rodu
ctio
n (m
illion
bop
d)O
il Pr
ice
$/bb
l
World Capacity
Projected Growth in Supply and Demand
World Demand
Oil Price ($/bbl)
E&P Expenditure
Oil Supply and Demand—The Macro View
4
Proven Reserves versus Production
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007
Non OPEC
OPEC
6
Long-Term Oil Supply Cost Curve
9
Resources, Billion Barrels
20
0
40
60
80
100
120
140
Prod
uctio
n Co
st, $
200
8
Produced MENA
Other Conven-tional Oil
CO2E
OR
EOR Arct
ic
Heavy Oil & Bitumen
Oil Shales
Deepwater and Ultra Deepwater
1,0000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000
Gas to Liquids
Coal to Liquids
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2008Source: IEA
US Gas Rig Activity and Production
24
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Gas
Pro
ducti
on (b
cf/d
)
Gas
Rig
Cou
nt
Gas Rig Count Gas Production
2009
25
Fracturing Technology in the Barnett Shale
Time, days
Gas
Rate
, M
Mcf
/mon
th
0
10
20
30
40
50
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Water fraccing in horizontal wells (after 6/1/2003)
Slickwater fraccing in vertical wells (after 1/1/1998)
Large crosslinked fraccing in vertical wells (after 1/1/1991 and 1/1/1998)
Small crosslinked or foam fraccing in vertical wells (before 1/1/1991)
Data source: Schlumberger Oilfield Review
Integration of Resources & Data
Maximizing Reservoir Contact – Multi-Stage Frac with Microseismic Monitoring
Major enabler for Unconventional Gas
Greater understanding of Frac Treatments
– Fracture length
– Fracture orientation
– Zonal differences
– Asymmetry
Real-time interpretation and control
Summary
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The world is endowed with significantly more conventional and unconventional hydrocarbon resources than most realize
Short-term risk of under investment, both in hydrocarbon supplies and in renewable energy technology
The world’s need to increase production capacity, improve recovery, and exploit reserves, while mitigating carbon dioxide emissions creates an environment where technology development and deployment will be key
Technology will continue to evolve and enable economic development of what is today unconventional and uneconomic, the US shale gas case is a good example of this
