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September 2006
Making the connection
Global consumer trends and the need for innovation
Deborah Perkins, Rabobank International
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Contents
Section 1:
Section 2:
Section 3:
Global Demand Drivers
Chile’s Position in Global Market
Going Forward
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Thought for food
Global Demand Drivers
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Income and population growth are the key drivers behind increased food consumption
Rabobank analysis base on UN-Population department and IMF data
Population and Income growth for selected countries
France
Brazil
Mexico
China
India
Russia
Italy
Germany
U.S.
Chile
Japan
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Economic growth 2005-10
Po
pu
lati
on
gro
wth
200
5-10
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Consumers become more concerned about quality as they spend less of their income on food
Share of expenditure on food for selected countries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nigeria
India (
e)
China (
e)
Indon
esia
Russia
Argen
tina
Thaila
ndBra
zilChile UK
Franc
e
Austra
liaJa
pan
German
y
Canad
a U.S.
%
Source: USDA
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‘The sensory experience’1. Indulgent & premium2. New flavours3. Traditional
‘Consumer well being’1. Food plus2. Food minus3. Natural/organic4. Vegetarian
‘The time factor’1. Snacking & grazing2. ‘Heat & serve’3. Meal assembly
ConvenienceHealth
Pleasure
Source: Datamonitor
Three important aspects for consumers are convenience, health and pleasure
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How important is price?
% who agree and disagree with the statement “When shopping I always look for the cheapest prices “
60
3423
38 34 35
55
34
-8
-48-59
-36 -41 -41
-21-33
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Agree Disagree
Germany France UK Spain Italy Netherlands Poland Czech Rep
Source: Frontiers 98: Planning for Consumer Change in Europe
%
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Millennium issues are becoming increasingly important in developed countries
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Food safety is integral to food quality
…or retailers whose power makes food safety a compulsion and not a choice
Consumers are driving value chain…
Source: Rabobank International Source: Rabobank International
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Cultivating growth
Chile’s Position in the Global Market
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Chile has a larger share of world trade than production
1.50.5Pork
4223Apples
21513Avocados
2234Kiwifruit
1235Plums
1112Table Grapes
51Fresh Fruit
572Wine
14434Salmon
Rank World trade% World trade% World production
Source: FAO, USDA, Salmonchile
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The negotiation of FTA’s have contributed to this success
UnitedStates
EuropeanUnion
MercosurCentralAmerica
EFTA
SouthKorea
MexicoCanada
Chile
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Salmon exports have grown in line with the intoduction of best practice
Exports of Chilean Salmon, 1991 - 2005
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
US
D m
illio
n FO
B
Source: Salmonchile
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The U.S. and EU remain important markets for Chilean fruit exports
Chilean fresh fruit exports, 1999 - 2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
'99/'00 '00/'01 '01/'02 '02/'03 '03/'04 '04/'05
MT
'000
Asia EU U.S
Source: Chilean Fresh Fruit Association
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Distribution is key and suppliers have to deal with increasingly powerful customers in these markets
Top 10 retailers(food sales for 2005 $bn)
1. Wal-Mart Stores 1412. Carrefour 703. Tesco 514. Ahold 445. Kroger 42 6. Edeka 407. Lidl 408. Rewe 399. Aldi 36
10. Metro 35
Total: 538
Top 10 foodservice(total sales for 2005 $bn)
1. McDonald’s 542. Yum! Brands 303. Compass Group 234. Sodexho Alliance 155. Wendy’s 126. Burger King 117. Aramark 118. Subway 109. Accor 9
10. Starbucks 6
Total: 181
Source: Rabobank, 2006
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Chile can learn from developments in the Australian wine industry
Chilean & Austrlian Wine Exports, 1991-2005
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
liter
s '0
00
Australia
Chile
Source: Vinas de Chile , ABS
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Top hog producers in Chile are already very efficient
95%1082.924.12.2Chile
109
103
100
Slaughter weight
(kg lw)
65%2.923.52.3U.S.
41%3.221.62.2Argentina
33%2.818.02.0Brazil
Packer concentration
(CR4)
Feed conversion
(kg lw)
Pigs/sow
/year
Litters/year
Productivity indicators
Source: Rabobank, 2006
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There are a number of opportunities which can be developed in the dairy sector
Milk Productivity, 2005
ArgentinaIndia
PolandNew Zealand
BrazilThe Netherlands
Australia
Chile Ireland
Uruguay
0
5
10
15
20
25
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Productivity MT/cow
Pro
du
ctio
n c
ost
s U
Sc/
kg
Source: USDA
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Next steps for success
Going Forward
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Going forward the Chilean Agribusiness sector must continue:
• Monitoring of consumer trends
• Ongoing investment in technical innovation
• Increasing focus on niche markets
• Cooperation to create national brands
• Expanding access to finance
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Rabobank International….
“The financial link in theglobal food chain”®