2006 information operations book brief

Copyright © OSS Open Access

INFORMATION OPERATIONS:All Information, All Languages, All the Time

The New Semantics of War & Peace, Wealth & Democracy

Author’s Briefing

Robert David Steele VivasMA MPA NWC USMC CIA OSS


Third Title in Series

Edited Work

Works in Progress:

2007 Commercial Intelligence by Mats Bjore (Gray Book)

2007 Peacekeeping Intelligence Edited with Col Jan-Inge Svensson of Sweden

2008 Information Peacekeeping by Steele (UN Blue Book)


Highlights

• Foreword by Congressman Rob Simmons• Technical Preface by Dr. Robert Garigue• Connects Strategic IO with Tactical GWOT• Defines Six “IO-Heavy” Mission Areas• Summarizes the Information Challenges• Provides Strategic Concept for M4IS• Defines OSIS-X as a Global Solution• Provides Annotated “Reality” Bibliography


Why Now?• Information Operations Roadmap 2003

– Excellent idea, incomplete, needs “heart,” must transform IO from bullshit to beliefs—deception & manipulation are TIRED. Truth is WIRED.

– STRATCOM has potential if it turns away from beltway bandit pathologies• USDI dared to want it all—truly inspiring & transformational• SOCOM demonstrated totality of the “pit,” paucity of intelligence alone• CISCO showed growth of machine speed information creation and

interchange—no one Nation, however rich, can get a grip all alone• CENTCOM makes Multinational Information Operations a possibility• L-3 Tampa identified & integrated key enablers

– Machine translation for screening not reading– Advanced analytics for early warning & predictive analysis

• Everything that could go wrong, is going wrong…• Information Operations could and should save the Republic

– Tools for Truth, Sharing of Truth = Informed Democracy– Transparency & Sharing Kill Corruption, Nurture Moral Capitalism– Global Indigenous Legitimate Wealth through Information Sharing is the

ONLY Stabilizing Factor that is Affordable, Sustainable, and Attainable


The Strategic ObjectiveThe DoD Global Information Coverage program, under

the leadership of USSTRATCOM and in support of the COCOMs and all DoD policy, acquisition, and operations leaders, will:

1. Correctly assess the nature of the global conflict.

2. Understand the strategic environment within which this global conflict is taking place.

3. Identify and address the centers of gravity; most non-military.

4. Understand and address all facets of US, coalition, and hostile party legitimacy.

5. Provide information helpful to fostering global inter-agency and coalition campaigns.

6. Provide metrics for measuring IO inputs, outputs, and outcomes at all four levels of analysis (strategic, operational, tactical, and technical)

7. Provide predictive analysis to stop second-generation terrorism while stabilizing & reconstructing the world.

Dr. Col (Ret) Max Manwaring M

ax


Six IO-Heavy Mission AreasSeven Communities of Interest

1. Strategic Communication & Public Diplomacy

2. Peacekeeping Intelligence & Information Peacekeeping

3. Early Warning & Stabilization- Reconstruction Operations

4. Homeland Defense & Civil Support

5. National Education & National Research (Defense-Related)

6. Defense Acquisition & Logistics (Build-Buy-Bring)


Congressman Simmons• General Schoomaker got it in 1997 (SOC)• General Kernan got it in 2000 (NATO)• 40 countries ahead of US• Dr. Stephen Cambone (USDI) has it right!

– Universal coverage, 24/7, all languages, neighborhood levels of granularity

• Four key points:– 100 year six front total war demands IO++– Sharing rather than secrecy wins– Need national Open Source Agency– Need Open Source Software solutions

• For affordable state & local sharing• For affordable NGO/coalition sharing

• IO is central to DoD mission and HS• Need IO architecture to educate citizens

and also collect “bottom up” defensive dots

R-CT-02, 3rd Term

HASC, Homeland Security Chairman, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment


Dr. Robert Garigue, Canada• Computers create and destroy knowledge• Computers are in their infancy• Three forms of IW:

– Physical IW—denial of service– Syntactical IW—corruption & confusion– Semantic IW—belief systems

• IO creates organizational efficacy• Knowledge can deter conflict and create

stabilizing wealth—ultimate source of power• Data is getting smart—comes with attributes• Data with history & context more valuable• IP is about belief systems—undermining bad

ones and reinforcing good ones• IO = IW + IP, killing “bad” sites is not enough• Need to Ramp Up IP and spread “good” ideas• World Brain is a Reality—We Need to Grow Up

• VP for Information Integrity and Chief Security Executive Bell Canada • Created the IW framework for the Canadian forces (LtCdr RN)• Chairman of the Government of Canada Council for Information Protection• Chairman of the Canadian Financial Information Security Executives


Author’s Preface (Bottom Line)• Inter-agency sharing of non-

secrets more important than secrets for the President

• Unclassified information on beliefs, reality, operations, logistics more important than secret technical information

• Modern IO is about Global Coverage, 24/7 that leads to sharing, understanding, foresight and crafting of BUDGETS & BEHAVIOR that make sense and achieve desired outcomes in near, mid, and long-term.

• PEACE & PROSPERITY are not easy—they require ethical constant thought & application.

• 30 years overseas as son of oilman, USMC infantry officer, spy, and intelligence coach

• Created Marine Corps Intelligence Command

• #1 Amazon reviewer of global issues books


Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished

EnglishLanguage

ForeignLanguages*

*33 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages, and twelve critical Arabic dialects we do not do well at all.

NSA FBIS UN/STATE

Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect

CIA/DO

NRO

Global Secret Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding


50% Less CostlyM

ore

Sat

isfy

ing

SIGINT

OSINT

0% 50%

HUMINT

IMINT

MASINT

STATE

Does Not Exist

Global Total Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination


HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT

ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS

OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION

OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE

5% of cost 80% of value

95% of cost 20% of value

This is a common-sense contrast we can exploit!


Baseball AnalogyHarnessing the Power of the Crowd

OSINT

HUMINT

SIGINT

IMINT

MASINT


QDR 2006 Shift in Focus

• OLD– State-based threats– State-on-state combat– One force for all– Reactive– Static garrison forces– “Battle-ready”– One major conflict– Stovepiped services– Focus on hardware– User finds data– US military does it all– DoD rules the roost

• NEW– Transnational networks– Safe havens within states– Tailored deterrence options– Proactive preventive action– Mobile, expeditionary– “Battle-hardened”– Multiple irregular operations– Joint/coalition operations– Focus on knowledge/intelligence– Data finds user (CISCO AON)– Deep coalition partnerships– Inter-agency campaigns


Understanding the Threat“Big War” is 10% Probable, Takes 90% of $

• USMC knew all this in 1988

• QDR 2006 is 18 years late but finally!!

• Four threats require:– Four mind-sets– Four forces– Four strategies– Four campaigns

• Unity of Effort (both inter-agency & coalition/non-governmental organization) is not possible without a Global Common Operational Picture (GCOP) that is NOT Secret!

• Sharing, not secrecy, is the operative principle for unity/victory

• US Industrial-Congressional corruption is our worst enemy, blocks change


New Strategy: 1 + iii:Need better balance within national security.

50% 15% 20% 15%

250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 32B

CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME

Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence

Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol

Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security

1 ii i

Electronic

Reserve

Reserve Environment

Public HealthPeace Navy


Understanding the Real World100-year 6-front total war

• Arabic, Aramaic, Berber, Catelan, Chinese, Danish, Dari, Dutch, English, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Indonesian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Kurdish, Kurmanji, Norwegian, Pashto, Polish, Portuguese, Russian, Serbian, Spanish, Swedish, Tamil, Turkish, Urdu—minimal mandatory

• Arabic variations: Andalusi Arabic (extinct, but important role in literary history); Egyptian Arabic (Egypt) considered the most widely understood and used "second dialect"; Gulf Arabic (Gulf coast from Kuwait to Oman, and minorities on the other side); Hassaniiya (in Mauritania); Hijazi Arabic; Iraqi Arabic; Levantine Arabic (Syrian, Lebanese, Palestinian, and western Jordanian); Maghreb Arabic (Tunisian, Algerian, Moroccan, and western Libyan); Maltese; Najdi Arabic; Sudanese Arabic (with a dialect continuum into Chad); and Yemeni Arabic.

• You either get with the program or lose.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andalusi_Arabic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Arabic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_Arabic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hassaniya_Arabic

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Hijazi_Arabic&action=edit

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_Arabic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levantine_Arabic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maghreb_Arabic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maltese_language

http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Najdi_Arabic&action=edit

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Arabic

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Arabic


Neighborhoods, Not NationsThis is the level of analysis for the long war

The other rules are in THE NEW CRAFT OF INTELLIGENCE.


Modern Analysis 101

• Absent this model, it is not possible to be effective at integrated long-term analysis.


Modern Analysis 102• We need to stop wasting

money on costly US “butts in seats” lacking deep historical, cultural, linguistic, or real-life foreign area expertise.

• It’s time to get serious about global psycho-social analysis in depth.

• We cannot do it alone—we must go to multinational IO in full collaboration with all relevant NGOs.


Situational AwarenessWe Geo-Tag, RDF, OWL, & SOAP Everything

• Used with permission.

• XML-Geo• RDF• OWL• SOAP• OHS*• And a few

other things the beltway bandits have not thought about…..

* Open Hyperdocument System from Doug Englebart—allows citation analysis linkage at the paragraph level, and copyright compensation at the micro-cash level.


TIME IMPACT SHORT

TIME IMPACT

LONG

MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL

EQUITIES

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION

EQUITIES

LEADERS DECIDE

PEOPLE DECIDE

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL

SECRET SOURCES & METHODS

BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

OPEN SOURCES & METHODS

OBVIOUS DETAIL

OBSCURE DETAIL

OLD

NEW

A Revolution is UnderwayDistributed Ubiquitous Collective Intelligence Now Possible—We MUST Go “Multinational”


OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM

# = Your Top Issues, Local, National, Global

You Are Here...

12

3

Far Future

Near Future

Present

Historical Memory


OLD PARADIGMNEW PARADIGM

Reality-Based Behavior & Budgets

You Are Here...

12

3

Gaming Future ROIs

Foreign Viewpoints

Reality

Public Memory

Secrecy rules

Elites rules

Act on 2% of the info.

People complacent

Short-term view

Unilateral militarism

Immoral capitalism

Big stick works BUT

Long-term cost not visible to public


The Information Marketplace

Threat

Public Diplomacy & Strategic Communication

BudgetAcquisition of Right Stuff at

Right Time

Policy

IC &USG

State & Local

CorporationsForeignGovernments

& NGOs

OSIS-X

Policy World Client World Budget not based on threat. Only a fraction of clients are served.


Status of the Tribes TodayWe Must Transfer Proven Legal Ethical Decision-

Support (Intelligence) Process to All

0102030405060708090

100Objective

National

Military

Business

Academic

NGO-Media

Religious

• National 50%• Military 40%• Business 30%• Academic 30%• Law Enforcement 20%• NGO-Media 20%• Religious 20%

We have much to do.


0 500.000 1.000.000 1.500.000 2.000.000 2.500.000 3.000.000 3.500.000 4.000.000 4.500.000 5.000.000

print

film

magnetic

optical

telephone

radio

TV

Internet

surface Web

deep web

email

instant messaging

P2P file sharing

lower 327 74.202 3.416.230 51 3.488 39.841

upper 1.634 420.254 4.999.230 103 3.488 68.955 532.897 167 91.850 440.606 274 0

print film magnetic optical telephone radio TV Internet surface Web deep web emailinstant

messaging

P2P file

sharing

Success Story: Dutch OSINT

Surface web is NOT the Internet (Deep

web plus)

Email matters more than www

Books down, still matter as history

Merging with Internet

CISCO IPICS

Converts Tactical Radio to Digital Packets


Success Story: Swedish OSINT

• Began with one Maj (today LtCol), today fills up a basement in storage and aggregate sense-making software

• Works in all languages, manages global cover stories, gets technical information directly from all manufacturers including Chinese and Russians


Success Story: South African OSINT

• First to combine appreciation of both open source software as affordable, and open source intelligence as trust building measure

• Only leader of a continent-wide early warning and open source information sharing system


Success Story: UK OSINT• Started with just one

detective constable• Leveraged global

network of pro bono advisors, many met at OSS.Net conferences

• Cut cost of finding terrorist hide-outs from L3000/day to L30 in an hour by using OSINT


Peace & Prosperity Can Be Achieved ByChanging When & How We Intervene

• Public warning can change public policy– More Prevention– More Peacekeeping– More Education– More Long-Term Aid– Less Corruption– Less Censorship

• We have a sacred duty.

Between OSIS-X and MIOCs, World Brain is Possible


New Craft of Intelligence

I

Lessons of History

II

Global Coverage

III

National Intelligence

IV

Spies & Secrecy

China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.

Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning

Narrowly focused!

Harness distributed intelligence of Nation


Information for All Four Levels

Strategic Planning

Operational Coordination

Tactical Employment

Acquisition Design

• History

• Context

• Current Awareness

• Key Personalities/Motivators

• Imagery & Image Maps

• Translation Support

• Strategic Generalizations

• Critical Technologies

This is about information superiority across the board, not just enhancing all-source intelligence!


SECRET BIG DATA

• NSA-NGA

• SAIC

• HARRIS

• NG-MS

NOT SECRET BIG DATA

• UN, Red Cross, NGOs…

• NASA , public geospatial

• Factiva

• LEXIS-NEXIS

SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA

• Intelink

• ARDA

• ITIC

• JHU/APL

NOT SECRET DISTRIBUTED DATA

• CISCO

• Google/Libraries

• Amazon Inside the Book

• Napster Plus

Open Source Information System – External (OSIS-X)

SIPRNET


OSIS-X (Global Nations, Organizations, & Individuals)

GPS RFID-X (All Devices, People, Locations)

Intelink-X

USA Earns Nobels Across S&T

Funded by DoD, Fed By OSIS-X

USA DGI, GIC, GSC

World Intelligence Network

General Al Gray: “Communications without intelligence is noise; intelligence without communications is irrelevant.Peter Drucker (paraphrase): We’ve spent 50 years on the T in IT, now it is time we spent 50 years on the I in IT.

Side Benefit: Provides USG with global cultural and educational leverage at home and abroad

Side Benefit: Conflict Deterrence & Resolution via Early Warning & Information Peacekeeping

DGI: Director of Global Information GIC: Global Intelligence Council GSC: Global Strategy Council


$1B/Yr 3

$111B/Yr 10

Pay with information

Pay with cash & information

DoD

$250M/Yr 1

$500M/Yr 2

$1B/Yr 3

$1B is half what USDI was prepared to authorize at FOC

for OSINT alone. We go for JOICs, OSINT, & integrated man-machine Foreign Language Conversion in a

coherent manner that creates added value for each contract, a compelling

sales point and a barrier to entry for our competitors who miss the big picture.

1PB/Yr 15 PB/Yr 2

10 PB/Yr 3

Goal is all UN information including field reports in real time, beginning

with complex PKI of DoD interest and networking of all NGO eyes & ears on the ground.

USG

10X DoD

with 1-3 year

lag time.

U.S. Based Corporations

OMB pursuing “common solutions” approach. We give them our model, funded by DoD, for all of USG with NORTHCOM as hinge and DHS as the ultimate beneficiary. The language capability can help us capture 911 now.

Most of them don’t get it yet—stuck in IT or KM, internally focused. Spending $15B a year now on data mining and related IT-driven ideas.

Two tracks: one with our team members and their best big clients, the other commoditizing for small businesses.

Education Everywhere All Levels

Any institution agreeing to upload the bulk of its open research information including all student dissertationsto OSIS-X gets access to OSIS-X and to the toolkit (registering for the toolkit recruits the individual mind “by name” into the global network. All students everywhere are on tap, not just for knowledge creation, but for direct observation and nuanced evaluation. Later this allows us to change the educational paradigm to mix distance leaning, on-demand tutorials, help buttons for any task, and social networking as needed. Above the cash line, we focus onrestoring education and research as the engines for wealthproduction through knowledge creation. Below the cash line, wefocus on intellectual property creation, management, exploitation.

Law Enforcement Beginning with Interpol and drilling down locally in all countries, we give them OSIS-X free to obtain privacy OK & protection world-wide. GWOT data benefits.

United NationsAll NGOs, World Bank, IMF

Journalists We get their organizations to pay for access, but we find a way to recruit them as individuals to meet our client needs on the side.

Labor Unions & ReligionsCitizens & Advocacy Groups

It’s no longer about the collection of information or the communication of information. The next big thing is about the connection of dots to dots, dots to people, and people to people. We do this with an intelligent network and a focus on semantic web/synthetic information architecture technology, and the empowerment of individuals so that they can create and share knowledge in real time without organizational, legal, security, cultural, or language impediments.

The next slide shows the OSS value concept, the “I” side of the IT equation. SANITIZED


Focus of Global EffortStrategic Forecasting10% Need, 40% Cost

Primary Research & Experts on Demand20% Need, 30% Cost

Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now)30% Need, 20% Cost

Daily/Weekly Reports40% Need, 10% Cost

Shared Among Tribes

Partial Sharing

Tribal Secret

Top Secret

This extraordinary depiction is from Jan Herring, one of the top ten I look up to.


OPG VPN

Weekly Review

Expert Forum

Distance Learning

Virtual Library

Shared Calendar

Virtual Budget

Shared 24/7 Plot

Shared Rolodex

Teams Crossing All Boundaries


Inter-Agency Collaboration

SOJICC

J-2 J-3

J-1MP

J-5CA

J-4Eng

J-6IT

CGR2

INTELLIGENCE CLUSTER

80% Unclassified Information

NGO CLUSTER

LEA CLUSTER

SERVICE CLUSTER

CIVIL CLUSTER

COALITION CLUSTER

?

?

?

?

?

?

? ?

http://www.whitehouse.gov/goodbye/10b014372e3066b4a85a04e1fea95dca6fa27bb3.html


OVERVIEWStart with an overview of what is happening in general in you regional area.


FOCUS ON A COUNTRY – VIEW 360Start with an overview of what is happening in general in your assigned country


FOCUS ON AN ORGANIZATIONSee specifics of people, places, etcetera with frequency of mention


FOCUS ON A PERSONPhotos, Quotations, Links to Others, Key Details


GET NEW INSIGHTSThis is the only global information service that integrates sources with tools


READ IN DEPTH, IN CONTEXTAnything can be sent to the “scrapbook” where other tools can be applied


Teen-Agers are Center of GravityFaith Matters-Zealotry Kills

• World War III will be fought in the hearts and minds of teen-agers

• Half the brain—the half that can understand “other” views—dies by the age of 35

• Morality self-directs between the ages of 25 and 35—that’s when the brain matures

• Faith matters—not ideological zealotry, but a belief in the Golden Rule and respect for cultural and religious paths chosen by others over the course of centuries.


Book on Sale Now

• Amazon will sell you this book for $34.95.

• OSS.Net will provide it by the case of 16 at 50% discount.

• War colleges may buy the book at 50% discount with a guest lecture included.

• Same terms for the other books in the series.


Spread the Word

Robert David Steele Vivas

CEO, OSS.Net, Inc.

Intelligence Coach

CALL for email (unlisted)

CALL for email (public)

703.242.1700 voice

703.242.1711 fax

Use MoveOn.Org OSINT topic to self-organize everywhere in the world

Author will speak for sushi.

2006 information operations book brief

Data & Analytics

Transcript of 2006 information operations book brief