2003 P.M. VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA,...

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200 3 P.M. VanRaden P.M. VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD [email protected] Genetic Evaluations Genetic Evaluations for Fitness and for Fitness and Fertility in the US Fertility in the US and Other Nations and Other Nations

Transcript of 2003 P.M. VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA,...

Page 1: 2003 P.M. VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD paul@aipl.arsusda.gov Genetic Evaluations.

2003

P.M. VanRadenP.M. VanRadenAnimal Improvement Programs LaboratoryAgricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, [email protected]

Genetic Evaluations for Genetic Evaluations for Fitness and Fertility in the Fitness and Fertility in the

US and Other NationsUS and Other Nations

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Which Traits?Which Traits?

“A key priority in research and education should be to identify those traits that really affect cost of producing milk and concentrate selection on them” (McDaniel, 1976 National Workshop)

Still good advice today

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Genetic progressGenetic progress

G = accuracy genetic SD selection intensity generation interval

(Dickerson & Hazel, 1944)

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Heritability of N RecordsHeritability of N Records= N h**2 / [1 + (N – 1) Repeatability]= N h**2 / [1 + (N – 1) Repeatability]

(Lush, 1948)(Lush, 1948)

TraitRepeat-ability

Lactations

1 2 3 4 5

Protein .55 .30 .39 .43 .45 .47

SCS .35 .10 .15 .18 .20 .21

DPR .13 .04 .07 .10 .12 .13

PL .04 .07 .08 .085

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Average accuracyAverage accuracy= square root of reliability / 100= square root of reliability / 100

Cows born 1995

Bulls born 1994-98

Protein (kg) .71 .92SCS .60 .77PL .58 .78DPR .57 .75Service sire CE .55 .85Daughter CE .54 .77Feet & Legs .62 .84

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Coefficients of variation (CV)Coefficients of variation (CV)

Trait MeanPheno-

typic SD

CV (%)

Pheno typic

Gen-etic

Protein (lb) 692 91 13 7Stature (in) 57 1.6 3 2

PL (mo) 24 13 54 16DPR (%) 23 15 65 13

DPR = daughter pregnancy rate, PL = productive life,

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Trait HarmonizationTrait HarmonizationMark, 2003 EAAP meetingMark, 2003 EAAP meeting

Trait

Countries

Average corr.

Avg. cor w / USA

Protein 27 .87 .89

Stature 21 .89 .90

Fore Udd. 21 .75 .79

SCS 20 .85 .86

Longevity 14 .59 .74

SCE 10 .83 .86

DCE 10 .58 .64

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MACE Longevity CorrelationsMACE Longevity CorrelationsJakobsen, 2003 Interbull meetingJakobsen, 2003 Interbull meeting

USA DEU FRA NZL NLD CAN GBR

USA .83 .61 .55 .80 .93 .83

DEU .65 .44 .83 .81 .74

FRA .40 .68 .62 .51

NZL .43 .52 .58

NLD .80 .70

CAN .89

Avg (14)

.74 .69 .62 .49 .68 .73 .67

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MACE for Calving EaseMACE for Calving EaseJakobsen, 2003 Interbull meetingJakobsen, 2003 Interbull meeting

Avg. cor (10 x 10) USA DEU FRA NZL NLD CAN DNK

Service sire CE

.86 .87 .85 .69 .81 .75 .90

Daugh-ter CE

.64 .54 .68 … .68 .78 .59

USA cor DEU FRA NZL NLD CAN DNK

SCE .70 .82 .72 .86 .82 .94

DCE .61 .92 … .93 .88 .76

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Pregnancy RatePregnancy Rate

Rate that cows become pregnant

Can be derived from days open Non-linear: 21 / (DO – VWP + 11) Linear approx: (233 – DO) / 4

Advantages over days open Positive numbers are desirable Earlier measure of herd fertility

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Pregnancy Rate vs Days OpenPregnancy Rate vs Days Open

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

60 81 102 123 144 165 186 207 228 249

Number of Chances

Pre

gn

ancy

Rat

e

987654321

Days Open

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Cow Fertility TraitsCow Fertility Traits Evaluated in Largest Holstein Populations Evaluated in Largest Holstein Populations

Country

Trait USA DEU FRA NZL NLD CAN GBR AUS

Ability to cycle Yes Yes Yes

Ability to conceive Yes Yes Yes Yes

Combined trait Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Emphasis 7% 2% 13% 10% 7% 8%

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Prediction of UK Calving IntervalPrediction of UK Calving IntervalWall et al, 2003 Interbull meetingWall et al, 2003 Interbull meeting

Country, trait BullsMin Rel

UK Rel

PTA Corr.

USA preg rate 108 70 65 .76

AUS preg rate 65 70 50 .73

NLD fert. index 46 60 60 .71

IRL calv. int. 68 65 70 .69

DNK fert. index 103 70 60 .51

NZL fert. index 42 60 50 .51

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International Fertility CorrelationsInternational Fertility Correlations

UK, DEU, FRA, NLD (Wall, 2003) Non-return, PTA correlation avg = .54

DNK, FIN, SWE (Mark, 2001) Days to 1st AI, genetic cor avg = .67 Non-return rate, genetic cor avg = .44

Ayr from NOR, DNK, FIN, SWE (Svendsen, 2001) Fertility index, genetic cor avg = .73

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Value of Cow FertilityValue of Cow Fertility

Optimum days open Pregnancy rate affects mean and variance Reduced yield/day vs longer lactations

Fertility expenses per day open Heat detection ($20 / lact .005) = $.10 Semen ($15 / unit + $5 labor) *.025 = $.50 Pregnancy exam ($10 / exam)*.012 = $.12 Lactations too long or short = $.75

Relative value of DPR = 7% of total

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Value of Calving EaseValue of Calving Ease

Daughter CE value / difficult birth Veterinary, labor costs = $50 Calf death (20% prob) = $25 Cow deaths before 1st test (1% prob) = $15

Service sire CE also includes Yield losses / lactation = $40 Fertility and longevity losses = $30

Relative values of each are 2% of total

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National Selection Indexes:National Selection Indexes:Yield and Health TraitsYield and Health Traits

Country (Interbull Code)

USA USA DEU FRA NZL NLD CAN GBR AUS ITA DNK SWE

% of Interbull Population 17.4 15.3 12.3 10.6 9.3 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 1.5

Index Name NM$ New RZG ISU BW DPS LPI PLI APR PFT S – I TMI

TraitProtein 36 33 36 35 34 35 43 57 36 42 21 21

Fat 21 22 9 10 13 8 14 11 12 12 10 4

Milk 5 0 -17 -14 -19 -20 -3 -4

% Protein 4 2 3

% Fat 1 2 2

Longevity 14 11 25 13 8 12 8 15 12 8 6 6

SCS / mastitis 9 9 5 13 11 3 7 10 15 12

Fertility 7 2 13 10 7 9 10

Other diseases 2 3

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National Selection Indexes:National Selection Indexes:Conformation and Management TraitsConformation and Management Traits

Country (Interbull Code)

USA USA DEU FRA NZL NLD CAN GBR AUS ITA DNK SWE

% of Interbull Population 17.4 15.3 12.3 10.6 9.3 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 1.5

Index Name NM$ New RZG ISU BW DPS LPI PLI APR PFT S – I TMI

TraitUdder traits 7 7 6 8 17 13 9 12

Feet / legs 4 4 4 1 3 11 6 5 9

Size -4 -3 2 2 -18 4 -4 2

Dairy character 2

Rump 1 1

Final score 4 2

Calving ease 4 4 10 6 12

Growth / meat 4 6

Milking Speed <1 4 6

Temperament 5 2 3

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Response to NM$ SelectionResponse to NM$ Selection

Trait

NM$ 2000

NM$ 2003 Trait

NM$ 2000

NM$ 2003

Protein .81 .74 Udder .19 .22

Fat .68 .67 F & L .17 .16

Milk .68 .58 Size -.10 -.10

PL .51 .58 SCE -.13 -.23

SCS -.35 -.38 DCE -.11 -.21

DPR .00 .15

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Changes for November 2003Changes for November 2003

Earlier evaluation of DPR Records in progress used at 130

instead of 250 DIM 6% gain in REL of DPR for new bulls Developed by Melvin Kuhn

Use of DPR, SCE, DCE to predict PL 4% gain in REL of PL for recent bulls

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ConclusionsConclusions

Most fitness traits are less heritable but more variable than yield and type

In August 2003 NM$, cow fertility receives 7% and calving ease traits each receive 2% of total selection

Reasonable progress is expected

National fitness trait evaluations need to reach foreign customers