2002* Segundo Encontro Anual Com Analistas E Investidores Mercado De AviaçãO Corporativa

Analysts & Investors Meeting

Feb 21, 2002

Analysts & Investors Meeting

Feb 21, 2002

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THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS THE PROPERTY OF EMBRAER S.A. AND IT SHALL NOT BE COPIED OR USED IN ANY MANNER EXCEPT WITH EMBRAER’S WRITTEN CONSENT.

Contents

• Our Forecast Method

• Scenario

• Market Overview

• Legacy in the market

• Legacy Product

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• Determine External Scenario

Market Forecast Methodology

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• Examine Internal Scenario


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• Evaluate Business Jet Forecasts from Outside Sources (Top Down Analysis)



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• Perform Customer Focused Research /Survey (Bottom-up

Analysis)




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• Analyze Results and Make Forecast for Inclusion in Action Plan

• Perform Customer Focused Research /Survey (Bottom-up

Analysis)




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Scenario OverviewØ Corporate Aviation Market has been strong and robust one

Ø Main drivers

- Fractional/ownership demand/expansion

- Globalization

- Security issues

- New models with more performance and comfort

- Airline service insatisfaction

Ø Corporate Aircraft: tool to leverage business (Arthur Andersen Study @

nbaa.org)

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Scenario Overview

Ø After Sep 11: new security measures, increased interest in business aviation, new

program launches and competitors movements in business expansion

Ø Business aviation historical data demonstrates that this sector has important

participation in economy rebound

Ø Our current sales are better than previously estimated in our business plan.

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Source: AIN

Market share by manufacturerWorldwide Corporate A/C Fleet

Source: Flight International

Forecast for the period of 2000 to 2010

(158 +78 = 236 a/c on average/year)11774(70%)

USA:

MEXICO:

BRASIL:

7,985 (74%)

392 (4%)

469 (4%)

1,219 (11%)

378 (4%)

67 (1%)

204 (2%)

7,716

258

USA: 7,716

Mexico: 355

Brasil: 258

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Total Market Forecast

Market History and 10 years Forecast

840

686742

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 Average 2002-2011

Honeywell

TEAL

RR

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$3.0 - 5.0M

$11.0 - 13.0M

$5.0 - 7.0M

$8.0 – 8.5M

$13.0 - 22.0M

$22.0 - 31.0M

$ 46 - 50.0M• BBJ• Airbus 319 CJ

• Challenger 604• Falcon 900• G IV-SP• Envoy 7• Falcon FNX

Citation X • Falcon 50 Falcon 2000 • G200 Continental • Horizon

Hawker 800 XP • G100Lear 60 • Citation VII • Sovereign

Ultra/Encore • Excel

$20.3M

• G V-SP• Global Express

$ 40 - 45.0M

Citation Jet • CJ1 • CJ2 • SJ-30 • Premier

Beechjet 400A • Lear 31 • Bravo

Global

Ultra-Long Range

Large

Supermidsize

MidsizeMidlight

Light

Entry

2002Market SegmentationMarket Segmentation

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Supermidsize Segment Forecast

Supermidsize Forecast - TEAL

174 173

138 143158

020406080

100120140160180200

2000 2001 2002 2003 Average 2002-2011

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Large Segment Forecast

Large Segment Forecast – Teal

020406080

100

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Year

Average: 78 A/C / year

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Source: AIN

Market share by manufacturerProjected Market Share by Manufacturer

Source: Embraer Corporate Jets

Cessna

Raytheon

Embraer (over 240 A/C)

General Dynamics

Bombardier

Dassault

17%17%

17%17%

10%10%10%10%

23%23%23%23%

Forecast for the period of 2000 to 2010

(158 +78 = 236 a/c on average/year)

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Worldwide Aircraft Orders

Current as of Jan 2002

Country Firm Orders Options Total

USA - Executive 34 35 69

USA- Shuttle 32 56 88

Europe- Exec. 1 - 1

Latin America - Exec. 6 3 9

Total 73 94 167

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Fwd Under Belly Tanks3,765 lbs.1,706 kg

Aft Internal Tanks2,734 lbs.1,242 kg.

Each Wing Tank11,403 lbs.5,171 kg.

* Assumed fuel density 6.7lb/US gal (0.803kg/l)

Fuel Capacity - Executive

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Supermidsize – Floor Plan Comparison

10 20 30 40 50ft

m 3 6 9 12 15

Continental

Horizon

Gulfstream 200

Source: Conklin & de Decker’s “The Aircraft Comparator”

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Cabin dimensions (ft.)Width Height Aisle Recess

Continental 7’2“ (2.18m) 6’1” (1.85m)

Horizon 6’7” (2m) 6’0” (1.82m)

Gulfstream 200 7’2” (2.18m) 6’3” (1.9m) 6” (0.15m)

Legacy 6’11”(2.1m) 6’0” (1.83m) 2” (0..05m)

Continental

Horizon

Gulfstream 200

Supermidsize – Cross Section Comparison

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10 20 30 40 50ft

m 3 6 9 12 15

G IV SP

Falcon 2000

Large – Floor Plan Comparison

Source: Conklin & de Decker’s “The Aircraft Comparator”

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Falcon 2000

Gulfstream IVSP

Cabin dimensions (ft.)

Width Height

Falcon 2000 7’7” (2.3m) 6’2” (1.87m)

G-IV-SP 7’3” (2.2m) 6’2” (1.87m)

Legacy 6’11” (2.1m) 6’0” (1.83m)

Large – Cross Section Comparison

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Second Seating Area

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Best Value

Source: Business and Commercial Aviation May 2001

Aircraft Cabin Volume Baggage Range Price (cu.ft./ m3) (nm) (US $M)

Continental 860/ 24.3 120 / 3.40 3,168 15.3

Horizon 757/ 21.4 110 / 3.11 3,100 16.1

Citation X 508/ 14.3 72 / 2.04 3,062 18.6Gulfstream 200 870/ 24.6 150 / 4.25 3,670 18.7

Falcon 50EX 700/ 19.8 115 / 3.25 3,366 18.8

Legacy 1,410/ 39.9 240/ 6.79 3,200 20.3Falcon 2000 1,024/ 28.9 134 / 3.79 3,213 21.1Challenger 604 1,035/ 29.3 115 / 3.25 4,033 23.2

Falcon 900C 1,267/ 35.8 127 / 3.58 4,000 28.7

G-IV-SP 1,525/ 43.1 169 / 4.78 4,105 32.1

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Range - Executive New York Next

Takeoff at ISA +20Mach 0.8085% annual winds10 pax @ 200 lbNBAA reserves

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Range - Executive Next


São Paulo- Guarulhos

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Range - Executive Next


Paris

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(1) 1.42 maintenance labor hrs / flight hr, assumed labor rate @ $65 / hr, 5 year cost, 503 flight hr/y and 1.73 FH/FC

(2) APU use based on 0.75 AH/FH

(3) Power by the Hour –Rolls Royce, On-Condition maintenance

(4) Does not include interior coverage

Direct Operating Costs - Executive

Operating Costs per Flight Hour:

Fuel (325 gal/hr @ $2.40/gal.) $ 780

Airframe Maintenance (includes parts) (4) $ 194 (1)

APU Maintenance $ 17 (2)

Engine Reserve $ 252 (3)

TOTAL per hour costs $ 1,243

Price - Executive Configuration $20,275,000*

Jan 2002 Economic Conditions


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Corporate Shuttle

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Range - Shuttle


Dallas

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(1) 0.71 maintenance labor hrs / flight hr, assumed labor rate @ $65 / hr, 5 year cost, 1,200 flight hr/y and 1.4 FH/FC

(2) APU use based on 1.0 AH/FH

(3) Power by the Hour –Rolls Royce, On-Condition maintenance

(4) Does not include interior coverage

Direct Operating Costs - Executive

Operating Costs per Flight Hour:

Fuel (310 gal/hr @ $2.40/gal.) $ 744

Airframe Maintenance (includes parts) (4) $ 151 (1)

APU Maintenance $ 15 (2)

Engine Reserve $ 252 (3)

TOTAL per hour costs $ 1,162

* January 2001 Economic Conditions


Price - Corporate Shuttle $15,650,000* Jan 2002 Economic Conditions


*

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Legacy Main FeaturesBuilt to operate within typical airline schedule of 2,500 – 3,000 hours per year:

−Minimum downtime for inspections

−Ease of maintenance

−High reliability

The largest Baggage volume in its class

Fully integrated Honeywell Primus 1000 avionics system

Powerplant: Rolls-Royce AE 3007 family

Sundstrand APU for complete operational independence

Cockpit panel allows fast access, lowering maintenance costs

Large cabin with several options for pax comfort

Derived from a successful platform which family transported over 15 million people in the world

The Business Jet for the New EconomyThe Business Jet for the New Economy

2002* Segundo Encontro Anual Com Analistas E Investidores Mercado De AviaçãO Corporativa

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