20 July 200920 July 2009

Professor Barbara Pocock

Director of the Centre for Work + Life University of Sydney

Presented to ACTU Jobs Summit 20 July 2009. Views within are those of the author

and not necessarily those of the ACTU. 

Barbara Pocock, Centre for Work + Life,

University of South Australia

‘ACTU Jobs Summit:Pathways to recovery

20 July 2009 

Unions NSW: Auditorium, 4 Goulburn St, Sydney10am – 4pm, 8-10th July 2009

A different contextDemographics: age composition of the

workforceFertilityWorkplaces and the workforceHousehold structuresWork intensification and the fall-out of the

last two recessionsNew generations of workers

A second post-war boom 1991-2008

Three recessions: GDP 1980-2009Five quarters of negative growthUnemployment hit 10%

GDP 1980-2009Four quarters of negative growthUnemployment hit 11%

GDP 1980-2009One quarter of negative growthUnemployment to hit 8%?

GDP

Last two recessions had long unemployment tails, especially 1990s (men on disability payments?)

Different gender stories?

Under-employmentThe labour force underutilisation rate (which

includes the unemployed and the underemployed - those who would like to work more) is risingfrom 10.1 per cent in May 2008 (12.4 per cent

for women) to 10.6 per cent in November 2008 for all

persons (13.2 per cent women)in late 2008 one in five of Australia's part-time

workers wanted and were available to work more hours (ABS cat no 6265.0).

Employment has contracted in 2009 and will remain weak in 2010

According to Treasury budget papers, GDP growth in Australia is predicted to be around -0.5% in 2009/10 and 2.25% in 2009/10

Unemployment rate might hit 8¼ per cent by the June quarter 2010, peaking at 8½ per cent in 2010-11.

The participation rate is forecast to decline by 1¼ percentage points from its recent record high, reaching 64¼ per cent by the June quarter 2011

These forecasts take into account the Australian Government’s $42 billion Nation Building and Jobs Plan, which is expected to support 90 000 jobs over the forecast period

The GFC

GFC – who will get hurt?Some industries, regions and individuals will be

disproportionately affected• Industries most likely to be directly affected: Finance and

Insurance and Property and Business Services industries• Industries closely linked with the business cycle:

Construction, Manufacturing and Retail Trade• Regions – some still recovering from 1980s and 1990s

recessions. Disadvantage piled on disadvantage.• People with the least skills and experience: low paid,

young, low qualifications, immigrants, casuals

A demographic freight train

Fertility: the pill

Source: ABS Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 Cat no 3222.0, 2008

Population profile 2006, 2056

Source: ABS Population Projections, Australia, 2006 to 2101 Cat no 3222.0, 2008

An aging workforce

Source: ABS, Mature Age Workers: Sustaining Our Future Labour Force.

Even the Baby Bonus (or paid parental leave) cannot derail

GFC is a 5 year problemThe demographic, work and household

changes are a much larger 50 year problem

We will live this larger problem in the context of a workforce that is:

increasingly femaleagingalready feels overworkedis pushed for timeneeds different skills

In some cases more In some cases better deployment of them

Who’s a worker now?

The labour force is different: participation rates

Work matters moreAustralians are working more and more

Work and care combine for manyWorkers torn between work and care and the

rest of their lives?A third of workers responsible for the care of

children 0-14 years in their householdsBoundaries between work and home are

weaker Work is greedy and expansiveAnd we like it

We feel pressed for time

The job is different – for some

Hours of work have changed

Along with the reach of technology

Where and how we work has changed

-1.9%

0.6%

1.9%

22.3%

13.7%

8.7%

18.3%

25.6%

16.2%

0.1%

4.3%

6.7%

17.3%

19.5%

20.8%

37.5%

41.1%

49.4%

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Advanced Clerical and ServiceWorkers

Labourers and Related Workers

Elementary Clerical, Sales andService Workers

Intermediate Production andTransport Workers

Tradespersons and RelatedWorkers

Intermediate Clerical, Sales andService Workers

Professionals

Managers and Administrators

Associate Professionals

Occ

upati

on g

roup

Growth

Growth (%) - 10 years to November 2008

Growth (%) - 5 years to November 2008

Employment growth by occupation 5 years and 10 years to 2008

Source: DEEWR (2008) New Jobs: Employment trends and prospects for Australian industries

Part-time and full-time employment, 1983, 1991, 2009 by sex, Australia (‘000)

Source: ABS Labour Force, Australia, Cat no 6202.0.55.001, Spreadsheets, Jan 2009

Looking ahead: Projected jobs growth by industry, 5 years to 2012/13

Source: DEEWR (2008) New Jobs: Employment trends and prospects for Australian industries

The job affects us differentlyAnnual survey of Work-life outcomes across

Australia Most Australians are reasonably happy with

their work-life balance But many are affected by work-life strain and

time shortagesAnd it affects not just them, but their

household and community interactionAnd their participation in education.

Work-life outcomes are shaped byHours of work – short hours good, long hours badLong commutes are bad – and are often paired with long

hours at workFit between actual and preferred hours – good fit is goodHalf don’t have a good fitOccupation – managers, professionals do badlyGender – women do worseThose with care responsibilities do worseQuality of supervision and supportive workplace culture

matterEmployee-centred flexibility mattersPoor quality job (ie insecure jobs, feeling overloaded at

work) result in worse work-life outcomes

Households are differentMore single parentsMore dual earnersMore commutingMore rushed and pressed for timeMore divorce and change

28% of marriages entered into in 1985–1987 expected to end in divorce

33% for all marriages entered into in 2000–2002.

More debt – six fold in 18 years

But not household work

Add to the mix: Generational change

Gen X: born 1961-74, now 35-48 years1980s recession, 1990s recession, burned Gen XMany saw their parents – long term loyal workers –

sackedMany faced unemployment themselves in 1990sHave worked for many employersHave faced the understaffing consequences of the 1980s

Intensification of work, overworkNot very loyal to the boss If they get the chance – through a tight labour market –

they will ‘push back’ against the bossDon’t want to be ‘agents of change’Have been stressed by work: Value good health, may not

have itMoney/earnings matter: highly mortgaged

Gen Y: born 1975-90, now 19-34 yearsMuch more advantagedNeed to be convinced to work Won’t work like baby boomersMuch more highly qualifiedLike Gen X, they see

Intensification of work, overwork Not very loyal to the boss If they get the chance – through a tight labour market –

they will ‘push back’ against the bossMoney matters less than

Enjoyment and non-pecuniary rewards of work Challenge, learning, interesting, ‘valuable’ job Don’t look for job security in the same way Look for control, time

New generations of workers…May be significantly differentAre likely to be looking for different life-time

work engagementEnjoyable workGood bosses, good colleaguesA balance of work with rest of life, especially

careChallenging workReward for skill and experienceLearning that is integrated in the job

Gen X: Maybe….?

But not all Gen X the same: high paid, low paid

Skill, work, care and incomeBoth high and low paid workers are time poorHighly educated workers

tend to have broad-based lifetime-useful education and skills

And to be in workplaces that further develop their skills and knowledge through mentoring, experience, formal training

Low paid workers are differentLow paid workers both time and money poorPoorer educational backgrounds, past successMore literacy & numeracy problemsShallow and narrow skills use, job designLow rates of access to formal and informal education on

the job or off the jobMore likely to be casual, and part-time

To recapThe recession is not the dominant story:

the aging, changing workforce, and its changing workplace and household context is bigger.

A tighter labour market will empower new generations of workersBut not all will be empowered in the same way

New regimes of work and care are necessaryAnd new agenda for unions

Further readingDEEWR (2008) New Jobs: Employment trends and prospects

for Australian industries. DEEWR, CanberraEwart Keep (2009) ‘Internal and External Incentives to

Engage in Education and Training - A Framework for Analysing the Forces Acting on Individuals?’, http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/socsi/contactsandpeople/academicstaff/I-L/professor-ewart-keep.html

Skinner and Pocock (2008) Work, life and workplace culture: The 2008 Australian work and life index, Centre for Work + Life, Adelaide. http://www.unisa.edu.au/hawkeinstitute/cwl/publications.asp

Pocock, Skinner and Ichii (2009) Work, life and workplace flexibility: the 2009 Australian work and life index, Centre for Work + Life, Adelaide.