20 Countries, 20 Macro Variables...

Pawel Borowski | Economic Data and Research Analyst

30 August 2019

20/20 Vision – August 2019

20 Countries, 20 Macro Variables Monitored

Economics

1 20/20 Vision – August 2019

Contents

Fitch’s economics team focuses on 20 major economies – developed and emerging – in its assessment of global economic prospects and global macro risks.

A GDP weighted average of the “Fitch 20” countries closely tracks the IMF’s measure of global GDP growth (using US dollar GDP weights derived at market exchange rates).

Fitch’s Global Economic Outlook report forecasts world growth using the “Fitch 20” GDP aggregate.

This bi-monthly macro data dashboard tracks 20 high-frequency data series for each of the “Fitch 20” countries (plus the eurozone): GDP, industrial production, PMI, exports, imports, retail sales, consumer confidence, wage inflation, employment, unemployment, CPI, PPI, house prices, exchange rates (nominal and real), bond yields, policy rates, money supply, share prices, household loans and corporate loans.

The charts show five years of historical data for each series – enough to place the latest observations in the context of recent cyclical developments.

The choice of data series has been harmonised as far as possible across all the “Fitch 20” to facilitate comparisons.

The Fitch 20/20 Vision chart pack offers a unique graphic snapshot of economic developments across the major economies that are key in driving world growth.

1 United States 2

2 Eurozone 4

3 China 6

4 Japan 8

5 United Kingdom 10

6 Germany 12

7 France 14

8 Italy 16

9 Spain 18

10 Switzerland 20

11 Australia 22

12 Canada 24

13 Brazil 26

14 Russia 28

15 India 30

16 Korea 32

17 Indonesia 34

18 Mexico 36

19 Poland 38

20 Turkey 40

21 South Africa 42


United States – Activity and Labour Market

2

4

6

8

10

0

100

200

300

400

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (x1000) Changes in Non-Farm Payrolls

Unemployment Rate (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, US BLS, Haver Analytics

US: Employment

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma) Exports Imports

Source: Fitch Ratings, US Census Bureau, Haver Analytics

US: Export and Import Volumes

40

45

50

55

60

65

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)

Industrial Production (LHS)

ISM PMI Index

Markit PMI Manufacturing

Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, ISM, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

US: Industrial Production

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma)

Average Weekly Earnings (Private)

Average Hourly Earnings (Private)


US: Nominal Earnings Growth

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)

Consumer Spending

Retail Sales

Consumer Confidence (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, OECD, the Conference Board, Haver Analytics

US: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)

Quarterly GDP Growth

Annual GDP Growth (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, US BEA, Haver Analytics

US: Real GDP Growth


United States – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

-4

0

4

8

12

-2

0

2

4

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation (LHS) House Prices

PPI


US: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%)

10Y Treasury Yield Policy Interest Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, US Treasury, Haver Analytics

US: Policy Interest Rate and 10y Treasury Yield

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.51,200

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(EURUSD) (Index)

S&P 500 Composite Equity Index

EURUSD (RHS, inverted scale)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Standard and Poor’s, Fed, Haver Analytics

US: Daily Stock Price and FX

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) M2 Money Supply

Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, Haver Analytics

US: Money Supply

90

100

110

120

1301.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (EURUSD)

EURUSD (LHS)

REER (inverted scale)

Source: Fitch Ratings, WM/Reuters, IMF, Haver Analytics

US: Exchange Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) Corporate Loans Household Loans

Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, Haver Analytics

US: Household and Corporate Loans


Eurozone – Activity and Labour Market

-28

-21

-14

-7

0

7

14

21

28

35

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, European Commission , Haver Analytics

Eurozone: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,


Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Haver Analytics

Eurozone: Export and Import Volumes

41

44

47

50

53

56

59

62

65

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy,

3mma)


EC Economic Sentiment (Jan 2010=50)

PMI Manufacturing

Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Eurozone: Industrial Production

7.0

8.5

10.0

11.5

13.0

-2

-1

0

1

2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate


Eurozone: Employment

-1.6

-0.8

0.0

0.8

1.6

2.4

3.2

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)




Eurozone: Real GDP Growth

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) Nominal Earnings

Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Haver Analytics

Eurozone: Nominal Earnings Growth


Eurozone – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

80

84

88

92

96

1000.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDEUR)

USDEUR (LHS)


Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, ECB, Haver Analytics

Eurozone: Exchange Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Eurozone: Money Supply

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation House Prices

PPI (RHS)


Eurozone: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) (%) EMU Government 10Y Bond Yield*

Policy Interest Rate (LHS)


Eurozone: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield

* debt weighted average

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

200

250

300

350

400

450

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDEUR) (Index) Euro STOXX USDEUR (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, STOXX, Haver Analytics

Eurozone: Daily Stock Price and FX

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) Household Loans Corporate Loans


Eurozone: Household and Corporate Loans*

* adjusted for reclassification


China – Activity and Labour Market

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (Volume, %

yoy, 3mma)

House Prices Starts (LHS)

Sales (LHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, NBS, China Index Academy / Soufun, Haver Analytics

China: Housing Market

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,


Source: Fitch Ratings, China Customs, NBS, Haver Analytics

China: Export and Import Volumes

80

90

100

110

120

130

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index)

(% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (Value, LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, NBS, Haver Analytics

China: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)

Industrial Production

PMI Manufacturing (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, NBS, Caixin/Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

China: Industrial Production

6

8

10

12

14

16

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (Ratio) Vacancy To Job Seeker Ratio

Nominal Earnings (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, MOHRSS of China, NBS, Haver Analytics

China: Labour Market

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)




China: Real GDP growth


China – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

80

85

90

95

100

105

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2015=100) (USDCNY) USDCNY REER (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Fed, OECD, Haver Analytics

China: Exchange Rates

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, The People's Bank of China, Haver Analytics

China: Money Supply

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%)

Government 10y Bond Yield

Policy Interest Rate (1 year loan rate)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Tullett Prebon Information, CSIC, Haver Analytics

China: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

6.0

6.2

6.4

6.6

6.8

7.0

7.2

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDCNY) (Index)

Shanghai SE Price Index

USDCNY (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Fed, Haver Analytics

China: Daily Stock Price and FX

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy)

Consumer Price Index

Purchasing Price Index


China: CPI and PPI Inflation

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18


Source: Fitch Ratings, BIS, Haver Analytics

China: Household and Corporate Loans


Japan – Activity and Labour Market

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%, Index)

Industrial Production (% yoy)

Tankan Business Condition (Diffusion Index)


Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Japan, METI, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Japan: Industrial Production

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.2

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, Japan MIAC, Haver Analytics

Japan: Employment

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

Nominal Earnings

Disposable Income (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Japan MHLW, MIAC, Haver Analytics

Japan: Nominal Earnings Growth

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index)

(% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, Japan METI, Cabinet Office of Japan, Haver Analytics

Japan: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma, NSA) Exports Imports

Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Finance of Japan, Haver Analytics

Japan: Export and Import Volumes

-6.0

-4.5

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Cabinet Office of Japan, Haver Analytics

Japan: Real GDP growth


Japan – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

11060

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDJPY)

USDJPY (LHS) REER (inverted scale)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Japan, Haver Analytics

Japan: Exchange Rates

-0.15

0.00

0.15

0.30

0.45

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) (%)


Policy Interest Rate (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Finance Japan, Bank of Japan, Haver Analytics

Japan: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) House Prices CPI Inflation PPI

Source: Fitch Ratings, Japan MIAC, MLITT, Haver Analytics

Japan: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Japan: Money Supply

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

x1000)

Th

ou

san

ds

NIKKEI 225 Average Price Index USDJPY (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, NIKKEI, Haver Analytics

Japan: Daily Stock Price and FX

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19



Japan: Household and Corporate Loans


United Kingdom – Activity and Labour Market

44

47

50

53

56

59

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)



Source: Fitch Ratings, UK ONS, Markit/CIPS, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

UK: Industrial Production

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy,


Source: Fitch Ratings, UK ONS, Haver Analytics

UK: Export and Import Volumes

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma) Nominal Earnings


UK: Nominal Earnings Growth

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%, Balance) (% yoy)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, UK ONS, OECD, Haver Analytics

UK: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate


UK: Employment

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)




UK: Real GDP Growth


United Kingdom – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) M2 Money Supply M4 Money Supply

Source: Fitch Ratings, BoE, Haver Analytics

UK: Money Supply

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

2,500

2,800

3,100

3,400

3,700

4,000

4,300

4,600

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(GBPUSD) (Index) FTSE All Share Price Index

GBPUSD (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, FTSE, BoE, Haver Analytics

UK: Daily Stock Price and FX

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



UK: Household and Corporate Loans

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) (%)




UK: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation House Prices (RHS)

PPI

Source: Fitch Ratings, UK Land Registry, ONS, Haver Analytics

UK: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (GBPUSD) GBPUSD REER (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, BoE, IMF, Haver Analytics

UK: Exchange Rates


Germany – Activity and Labour Market

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) Monthly Earnings Hourly Earnings

Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bundesbank, Haver Analytics

Germany: Nominal Earnings Growth

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bundesbank, Bundesagentur fur Arbeit, Haver

Analytics

Germany: Employment

-4

0

4

8

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma)

Exports Imports


Germany: Export and Import Volumes

34

38

42

46

50

54

58

62

66

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)


PMI Manufacturing

IFO Business Climate (Jan 2011=50)

Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Germany: Industrial Production

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%, Index) (% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, IFO, DG ECFIN, Haver Analytics

Germany: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)



Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, Haver Analytics

Germany: Real GDP Growth


Germany – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

-5

0

5

10

15

-1

0

1

2

3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation House Prices (RHS)

PPI

Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, Europace AG, Haver Analytics

Germany: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

96

98

100

102

104

106

1080.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDEUR)

USDEUR (LHS)


Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, OECD, Haver Analytics

Germany: Exchange Rates

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) (%)

Government 10Y Bond Yield


Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Bundesbank, ECB, Haver Analytics

Germany: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Germany: Money Supply

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDEUR)

(Index,

x1000)

DAX Share Price Index

USDEUR (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Deutsche Börse, Haver Analytics

Germany: Daily Stock Price and FX

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Germany: Household and Corporate Loans*



France – Activity and Labour Market

42

46

50

54

58

62

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)



Source: Fitch Ratings, INSEE, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

France: Industrial Production

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,



France: Export and Import Volumes

75

81

87

93

99

105

111

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, INSEE, Haver Analytics

France: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)




France: Real GDP Growth

7.9

8.2

8.5

8.8

9.1

9.4

9.7

10.0

10.3

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate


France: Employment

0

1

2

3

4

5

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) Manual Worker Average Hourly Salary

Gross Earnings


France: Nominal Earnings Growth


France – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

-5

0

5

10

15

-1

0

1

2

3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation (LHS) PPI

House Prices

Source: Fitch Ratings, INSEE, Eurostat, Haver Analytics

France: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDEUR) (Index) CAC 40 SE Price Index USDEUR (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, ECB, Financial Times, Haver Analytics

France: Daily Stock Price and FX

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



France: Household and Corporate Loans*


-1

0

1

2

3

4

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) (%)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Banque de France, ECB, Haver Analytics

France: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

1120.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2015=100) (USDEUR)

USDEUR (LHS)



France: Exchange Rates

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, Banque de France, Haver Analytics

France: Money Supply


Italy – Activity and Labour Market

41

44

47

50

53

56

59

62

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Istat, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Italy: Industrial Production

70

80

90

100

110

120

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Household Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, Istat, Haver Analytics

Italy: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) Nominal Hourly Wages


Italy: Nominal Earnings Growth

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,



Italy: Export and Import Volumes

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy) Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate


Italy: Employment

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

-1.2

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq) Quarterly GDP Growth



Italy: Real GDP Growth


Italy – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) House Prices Inflation PPI

Source: Fitch Ratings, Eurostat, Istat, Haver Analytics

Italy: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDEUR) (Index,

x1000)

FTSE MIB Performance Price Index

USDEUR (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, FTSE, Haver Analytics

Italy: Daily Stock Price and FX

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) (%)

Government Bond 10y Yield


Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Italy, ECB, Haver Analytics

Italy: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yields

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

1040.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2015=100) (USDEUR)

USDEUR (LHS)



Italy: Exchange Rates

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma) M2 Money Supply

Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Italy, Haver Analytics

Italy: Money Supply

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Italy: Household and Corporate Loans*



Spain – Activity and Labour Market

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)

Industrial Production PMI Manufacturing (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Spain: Industrial Production

-48

-36

-24

-12

0

12

24

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index, net

balance) (% yoy)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Bank of Spain, Haver Analytics

Spain: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,



Spain: Export and Import Volumes

-4.5

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)



Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Haver Analytics

Spain: Real GDP Growth

14

17

20

23

26

29

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Eurostat, Haver Analytics

Spain: Employment

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(Index,

1q11=100) (% yoy)

Labour Cost

Agreed Wages (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Labour, Migration and Social Security, INE, Haver

Analytics

Spain: Earnings Growth


Spain – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDEUR)

(Index,

x1000)

IBEX 35 Stock Price Index

USDEUR (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Bolsa de Madrid, ECB, Haver Analytics

Spain: Daily Stock Price and FX

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)


PPI

Source: Fitch Ratings, INE, Ministry of Development of Spain, Haver Analytics

Spain: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Spain, Haver Analytics

Spain: Money Supply

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) (%)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Spain, ECB, Haver Analytics

Spain: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

1080.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2015=100) (USDEUR)

USDEUR (LHS)



Spain: Exchange Rates

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Spain: Household and Corporate Loans*



Switzerland – Activity and Labour Market

-24

-18

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

24

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% Balance) (% yoy)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, SEC, Haver Analytics

Switzerland: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

42

46

50

54

58

62

66

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index)

(% yoy,

3m.m.a.)

Industrial Production PMI (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Swiss FSO, procure.ch, Haver Analytics

Switzerland: Industrial Production

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, SECO, FSO, Haver Analytics

Switzerland: Employment

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy, NSA) (% qoq, SA)



Source: Fitch Ratings, SECO, Haver Analytics

Switzerland: Real GDP Growth

-4

0

4

8

12

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) Exports (excl. gold) Imports (excl. gold)

Source: Fitch Ratings, SECO, Haver Analytics

Switzerland: Export and Import Volumes Switzerland: Export and Import Volumes

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19


Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, Haver Analytics

Switzerland: Nominal Earnings Growth


Switzerland – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDCHF) (Index,

x1000) Swiss Market Index USDCHF (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, SWX Swiss Exchange, Swiss National Bank, Haver Analytics

Switzerland: Daily Stock Price and FX

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, SNB, Haver Analytics

Switzerland: Money Supply

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% pp)

Swiss Confederation 10y Bond Yield

Policy Interest Rate


Switzerland: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield

105

110

115

120

125

130

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDCHF) USDCHF REER (RHS)


Switzerland: Exchange Rates

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) HICP PPI House Prices

Source: Fitch Ratings, FSO, SNB, Haver Analytics

Switzerland: HICP, PPI and House Price Inflation

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18



Switzerland: Household and Corporate Loans


Australia – Activity and Labour Market

85

90

95

100

105

110

0

1

2

3

4

5

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(Index) (% yoy)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Sentiment

Source: Fitch Ratings, ABS, Westpac/Melbourne Institute, Haver Analytics

Australia: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

0

1

2

3

4

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19


Source: Fitch Ratings, Melbourne Institute, Haver Analytics

Australia: Nominal Earnings Growth

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(Index) (% yoy)



Source: Fitch Ratings, ABS, Australian Industry Group, Haver Analytics

Australia: Industrial Production

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

0

1

2

3

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, ABS, Haver Analytics

Australia: Employment

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma)

Australia: Export and Import Volumes

Exports Imports


1

2

3

4

5

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)




Australia: Real GDP Growth


Australia – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

-10

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation PPI

House Prices (RHS)


Australia: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1150.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDAUD)

USDAUD (LHS)


Source: Fitch Ratings, Reserve Bank of Australia, Haver Analytics

Australia: Exchange Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% pp)




Australia: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18



Australia: Household and Corporate Loans

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index)

Australia: Daily Stock Price and FX

ASX 200 Stock Price Index USDAUD (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, S&P & ASX, Haver Analytics

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Australia: Money Supply


Canada – Activity and Labour Market

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Canada: Industrial Production

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics

Canada: Real GDP Growth

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index

Diffusion)

(% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics Canada, Haver Analytics, Datastream

Canada: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate


Canada: Employment

-4

0

4

8

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,



Canada: Export and Import Volumes

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Canada: Nominal Earnings Growth


Canada – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics

Canada: Money Supply

-4

0

4

8

12

16

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation (LHS)

House Prices - Composite 11

Purchasing Price Index

Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics of Canada, Teranet - National Bank, Haver Analytics

Canada: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1100.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDCAD)

USDCAD (LHS)


Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Canada, IMF, Haver Analytics

Canada: Exchange Rates

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) (%)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics

Canada: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.510

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDCAD)

(Index,

x1000)

TSX Stock Price Index

USDCAD (RHS, inverted scale)

Source: Fitch Ratings, S&P TSX, Bank of Canada, Haver Analytics

Canada: Daily Stock Price and FX

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) Corporate Loans (LHS) Household Loans


Canada: Household and Corporate Loans


Brazil – Activity and Labour Market

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)



Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Haver Analytics

Brazil: Real GDP Growth

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)



Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Brazil: Industrial Production

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Fundacao Getulio Vargas, Haver Analytics

Brazil: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

5.5

7.0

8.5

10.0

11.5

13.0

14.5

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate


Brazil: Employment

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy)

Brazil: Earnings Growth

Real Wages CPI Inflation

Nominal Wages


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) Exports Imports

Source: Fitch Ratings, OECD, Haver Analytics

Brazil: Export and Import Volumes


Brazil – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.540

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDBRL) (Index,

x1000)

BOVESPA Stock Price Index

USDBRL (RHS, inverted scale)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Sao Paulo Stock Exchange, Banco Central do Brasil, Haver

Analytics

Brazil: Daily Stock Price and FX

0

4

8

12

16

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Tullett Prebon Information, Banco Central do Brasil, Haver

Analytics

Brazil: Interest Rate and Government 10Y Bond Yield

0

4

8

12

16

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco Central do Brasil, Haver Analytics

Brazil: Money Supply

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation PPI

House Prices (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, IBGE, Banco Central do Brazil, FGV, Haver Analytics

Brazil: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

50

60

70

80

90

100

1101.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDBRL) USDBRL (LHS)


Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco Central do Brasil, IMF, Haver Analytics

Brazil: Exchange Rates

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco Central do Brasil, Haver Analytics

Brazil: Household and Corporate Loans


Russia – Activity and Labour Market

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) Nominal Wages Real Wages

Source: Fitch Ratings, Rosstat, Haver Analytics

Russia: Earnings Growth

4.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.4

5.6

5.8

6.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force)

(% yoy,

3mma)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, CBR, Rosstat, Haver Analytics

Russia: Employment

-35

-28

-21

-14

-7

0

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index, net

balance) (% yoy)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence


Russia: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

-3.6

-2.4

-1.2

0.0

1.2

2.4

3.6

-1.8

-1.2

-0.6

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.8

1q13 3q131q143q141q15 3q151q16 3q161q17 3q171q18 3q181q19

(% yoy) (I% qoq)




Russia: Real GDP Growth

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy,

3mma)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Rosstat, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Russia: Industrial Production

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) Exports of goods Imports of goods

Source: Fitch Ratings, Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics

Russia: Export and Import Volumes


Russia – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

20

40

60

80

100500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDRUB) (Index) TSX Stock Price Index (LHS)

USDRUB (inverted scale)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Moscow Exchange, CBR, Haver Analytics

Russia: Daily Stock Price and FX

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%)



Source: Fitch Ratings, CBR, Haver Analytics

Russia: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Russia: Money Supply

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy)

Household Loans

Corporate Loans


Russia: Household and Corporate Loans

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation PPI

House Prices (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Rosstat, BIS, Haver Analytics

Russia: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

16020

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (USDRUB)

USDRUB (LHS)



Russia: Exchange Rates


India – Activity and Labour Market

4.0

5.5

7.0

8.5

10.0

0

1

2

3

4

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq) Quarterly GDP Growth



India: Real GDP Growth

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19



India: Export and Import Volumes

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index)

(% yoy,

3mma) Industrial Production


Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of India, Nikkei/Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

India: Industrial Production

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Units, % yoy,

3mma,) Passenger cars Two-Wheelers

Source: Fitch Ratings, SIAM of India, Datastream

India: Two-Wheeler and Passenger Car Sales

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma) Infrastructure Sector Growth

Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Haver Analytics

India: Infrastructure Industries Growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) Private Consumption


India: Private Consumption


India – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

0

5

10

15

20

25

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18



India: Household and Corporate Loans

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, Reserve Bank of India, Haver Analytics

India: Money Supply

-12

-6

0

6

12

18

24

30

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation PPI

House Prices (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, MOSPI, Oxford Economics, OEAGI, Haver Analytics

India: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

95

100

105

110

115

120

12545

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2004/05=100) (USDINR)

USDINR

REER (RHS, inverted scale)


India: Exchange Rates

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%)




India: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

16,000

20,000

24,000

28,000

32,000

36,000

40,000

44,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDINR) (Index)

S&P BSE SENSEX Index

USDINR (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, BSE, Reserve Bank of India, Haver Analytics

India: Daily Stock Price and FX


Korea – Activity and Labour Market

0

2

4

6

8

10

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) Gross Nominal Earnings

Source: Fitch Ratings, Ministry of Employment and Labor of South Korea, Haver

Analytics

Korea: Nominal Earnings Growth

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,


Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Korea, Haver Analytics

Korea: Export and Import Volumes

92

100

108

116

124

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, KOSTAT, Bank of Korea, Haver Analytics

Korea: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

45.5

47.0

48.5

50.0

51.5

53.0

54.5

56.0

57.5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)



Source: Fitch Ratings, KOSTAT, Nikkei/Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Korea: Industrial Production

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

0

1

2

3

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, KOSTAT, Haver Analytics

Korea: Employment

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy) (% qoq)




Korea: Real GDP Growth


Korea – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Korea: Money Supply

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDKRW) (Index)

KOSPI Stock Price Index

USDKRW (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Korea Stock Exchange, Haver Analytics

Korea: Daily Stock Price and FX

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)


PPI

Source: Fitch Ratings, KOSTAT, Kookmin Bank, Haver Analytics

Korea: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

86

90

94

98

102

1061,000

1,050

1,100

1,150

1,200

1,250

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (USDKRW)

USDKRW (LHS)


Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank of Korea, OECD, Haver Analytics

Korea: Exchange Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% pp)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Thomson Reuters, Bank of Korea, Haver Analytics

Korea: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19



Korea: Households and Corporate Loans


Indonesia – Activity and Labour Market

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% qoq) (% yoy)

Quarterly GDP Growth (RHS)

Annual GDP Growth

Source: Fitch Ratings, Badan Pusat Statistik, Haver Analytics

Indonesia: Real GDP Growth

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19


Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank Indonesia

Indonesia: Nominal Earnings Growth

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy)

Exports of Goods and Services

Imports of Goods and Services


Indonesia: Export and Import Volumes

94

100

106

112

118

124

130

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank Indonesia, Haver Analytics

Indonesia: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

46

48

50

52

54

56

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy,

3mma)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Badan Pusat Statistik, Nikkei/Markit, Haver Analytics

Indonesia: Industrial Production

4.6

5.0

5.4

5.8

6.2

6.6

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate


Indonesia: Employment


Indonesia – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

1208,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDIDR)

USDIDR (LHS)


Source: Fitch Ratings, Financial Times, Reuters, Haver Analytics

Indonesia: Exchange Rates

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDIDR) (Index)

Jakarta Composite Price Index

USDIDR (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Financial Times, Reuters, Haver Analytics

Indonesia: Daily Stock Price and FX

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) (%)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Tullett Prebon Information, Bank Indonesia, Haver Analytics

Indonesia: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield

0

10

20

30

40

50

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18



Indonesia: Household and Corporate Loans

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) CPI Inflation House Prices PPI

Source: Fitch Ratings, Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, Haver Analytics

Indonesia: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, Bank Indonesia, Haver Analytics

Indonesia: Money Supply


Mexico – Activity and Labour Market

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)



Source: Fitch Ratings, INEGI, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Mexico: Industrial Production

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, INEGI, Haver Analytics

Mexico: Employment

66

75

84

93

102

111

120

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index)

(% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence


Mexico: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma)

Mexico: Export and Import Volumes

Exports Imports


3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma) Nominal Contractual Wages

Source: Fitch Ratings, STPS Mexico, Haver Analytics

Mexico: Nominal Earnings Growth

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy,

NSA) (% qoq,

SA)




Mexico: Real GDP Growth


Mexico – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDMXN) (Index,

x1000) Bolsa IPC Index USDMXN (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Wall Street Journal, Banco de Mexico, Haver Analytics

Mexico: Daily Stock Price and FX

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%) Government 10Y Bond Yield


Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco de Mexico, Tullett Prebon Information, Haver Analytics

Mexico: Interest Rate and Government 10Y Bond Yield

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

(% yoy) (% yoy)

Corporate Loans

Household Loans (RHS)


Mexico: Household and Corporate Loans

0

4

8

12

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco de Mexico, Haver Analytics

Mexico: Money Supply

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) CPI House Prices PPI

Source: Fitch Ratings, INEGI, Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal, Haver Analytics

Mexico: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

70

80

90

100

110

120

13010

12

14

16

18

20

22

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDMXN)

USDMXN (LHS)


Source: Fitch Ratings, Banco de Mexico, OECD, Haver Analytics

Mexico: Exchange Rates


Poland – Activity and Labour Market

-0.4

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% qoq) (% yoy)

Quarterly GDP Growth (RHS)

Annual GDP Growth


Poland: Real GDP Growth

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)



Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Poland: Industrial Production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma)

Poland: Nominal Earnings Growth

Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, Haver Analytics

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy) Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate


Poland: Employment

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,

3mma)

Poland: Export and Import Volume

Exports Imports


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Net

balance)

(% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, European Commission, Haver Analytics

Poland: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence


Poland – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, National Bank of Poland, Haver Analytics

Poland: Money Supply

85

90

95

100

1052.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (USDPLN)

USDPLN (LHS)


Source: Fitch Ratings, National Bank of Poland, OECD,, Haver Analytics

Poland: Exchange Rates

2.5

2.8

3.1

3.4

3.7

4.0

4.3

4.6

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDPLN)

(Index,

x1000)

Warsaw SE WIG Index

USDPLN (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Warsaw Stock Exchange, National Bank of Poland, Haver

Analytics

Poland: Daily Stock Price and FX

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% pp)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Reuters, National Bank of Poland, Haver Analytics

Poland: Interest Rate and Government 10Y Bond Yield

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, CSO of Poland, Eurostat, Haver Analytics

Poland: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, National Bank of Poland, Haver Analytics

Poland: Household and Corporate Loans


Turkey – Activity and Labour Market

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy, NSA) (% qoq, SA)



Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Haver Analytics

Turkey: Real GDP Growth

53

56

59

62

65

68

71

74

77

80

83

86

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

Consumer Confidence


Turkey: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

42

46

50

54

58

62

66

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy,

3mma)



Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Markit, Bloomberg, Haver Analytics

Turkey: Industrial Production

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy,



Turkey: Export and Import Volumes

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19



Turkey: Nominal Earnings Growth

7.0

8.5

10.0

11.5

13.0

14.5

16.0

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate


Turkey: Employment


Turkey – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

0

8

16

24

32

40

48

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, TurkStat, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics

Turkey: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Source: Fitch Ratings, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics

Turkey: Money Supply

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

40

55

70

85

100

115

130

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDTRY)

(Index,

x1000)

Borsa Istanbul 100 Index

USDTRY (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Financial Times, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics

Turkey: Daily Stock Price and FX

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



Turkey: Household and Corporate Loans

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%)



Source: Fitch Ratings, Reuters, Central Bank of Turkey, Haver Analytics

Turkey: Interest Rate and Government 10y Bond Yield

60

70

80

90

100

110

1201

2

3

4

5

6

7

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDTRY)

USDTRY (LHS)



Turkey: Exchange Rates


South Africa – Activity and Labour Market

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% yoy)

(% qoq,

annualized)



Source: Fitch Ratings, SARB, Haver Analytics

South Africa: Real GDP Growth

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19


Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics South Africa, Haver Analytics

South Africa: Nominal Earnings Growth

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19



South Africa: Export and Import Volumes

41

44

47

50

53

56

59

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index) (% yoy)


PMI Manufacturing

Source: Fitch Ratings, BER South Africa, Statistics South Africa, Haver Analytics

South Africa: Industrial Production

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

Diffusion)

(% yoy,

3mma)

Retail Sales (LHS)

OECD Consumer Confidence

Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics South Africa, OECD, Haver Analytics

South Africa: Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18

1q19

(% labour

force) (% yoy)

Employment (LHS)

Unemployment Rate

Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics South Africa, Haver Analytics

South Africa: Employment


South Africa – Inflation, Money, Banking and Financial Markets

6

9

12

15

18

25

35

45

55

65

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(USDZAR) (Index,

x1000)

FTSE/JSE All Share Index

USDZAR (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, SARB, Financial Times, Haver Analytics

South Africa: Daily Stock Price and FX

0

5

10

15

20

25

1q12

3q

12

1q13

3q

13

1q14

3q

14

1q15

3q

15

1q16

3q

16

1q17

3q

17

1q18

3q

18



South Africa: Household and Corporate Loans

01/

03/2

012

01/

08/2

012

01/

01/

2013

01/

06/2

013

01/

11/2

013

01/

04

/2014

01/

09/2

014

01/

02/2

015

01/

07/2

015

01/

12/2

015

01/

05/2

016

01/

10/2

016

01/

03/2

017

01/

08/2

017

01/

01/

2018

01/

06/2

018

01/

11/2

018

0

2

4

6

8

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(% yoy) (% yoy)

CPI Inflation PPI

House Prices (RHS)

Source: Fitch Ratings, Statistics South Africa, BIS, Haver Analytics

South Africa: CPI, PPI and House Price Inflation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



South Africa: Money Supply

60

70

80

90

1004

8

12

16

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(Index,

2010=100) (USDZAR) USDZAR (LHS)



South Africa: Exchange Rates

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

(%)




South Africa: Interest Rate & Government 10y Bond Yield


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