Douglas L. Westphal1Rudolf B. Husar2

Shawn E. McClure3

Wynn Eberhard4

James R. Campbell1

Edward J. Hyer1

Jeffrey S. Reid1

Walter R. Sessions5

Jianglong Zhang6

Saharan Dust Analyses and Forecasts for the Americas

1Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA2Washington University, St. Louis, MO 3CIRA, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO4CIRES/U. Colorado & NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO 5CSC, Monterey, CA 6University of North Dakota, ND

Summary:

1. We have developed operational global aerosol forecasting with data assimilation.

2. Developing distribution of NAAPS via existing DSS DataFed and VIEWS. Available back to 2001.

3. Suitable for quantifying impact LRT to Americas.

Saharan Dust Analyses and Forecasts for the Americas

NAAPS Products for Exceptional Event Analysis

Exceptional air pollution events (EEs) in the US are due mostly to windblown dust and biomass smoke and sometimes sulfateNAAPS ably simulates and forecasts these intercontinental-scale eventsThe primary NAAPS products of interest for the quantification of EEs are the surface and column concentrations of dust, smoke and sulfate

Dust Smoke Sulfate

Dust transport from E. Asia and Sahara

Sulfate transport from sources in Asia, Canada and Mexico

Smoke transport from Asia, Central America and Canada

Project Summary: Quantify the impact of Non-CONUS emissions on US AQ using NASA and NAAPS data provided to AQ Decision-Makers through DataFed and VIEWS.

Baseline:1. Exceptional events flagging

• No standard information sources as evidence for EEs• Ad hoc flagging and reporting by the States

2. Background conditions for EPS Regional Haze Rule• No modeling studies of international influences were

used to determine the default natural condition values• States lack standard method for quantifying impact

3. AQ Forecasting and sampling• LRT forecasts not freely available in a quantitative way

Background

1. Exceptional events flagging• Distribute NAAPS via standard protocol through

DataFed2. Background conditions for EPS Regional Haze Rule

• Use 10-year NAAPS reanalysis to identify background on 20% best and worst haze days

• Use NAAPS sensitivity runs to estimate impact of projected emissions (e.g. HTAP scenarios)

3. AQ Forecasting and sampling• LRT forecasts distributed• NAAPS made available for boundary conditions for

regional models• NAAPS forecasts used to guide measurements in field

missions

Approach

Navy Aerosol Forecast System Components

System FunctionNOGAPS Forecasts dynamicsNAVDAS-AOD Data assimilation for aerosolsFLAMBE* Detects fires, determines smoke fluxNAAPS Forecast aerosol concentrationsFAROP** Calculates aerosol optical propertiesDataFed, GODAE, Database and DistributionMetcast MCSST†, JPSS Applications† NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System – Aerosol Optical Depth*Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions**Forecast of Atmospheric and Optical Radiative Properties † Multi-channel Sea Surface Temperature

NAAPS: Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System

Purpose: Forecasts aerosol concentrationsStatus: Operational, 4X day, 6-day forecastInput: NOGAPS, FLAMBE,

NAVDAS-AOD,R&D: Ensemble

Species: Dust, Smoke,Sulfate, SO2,Sea salt

Units: Mass concentrationHorizontal resolution: 1 degree, 360 X 180 gridVertical resolution: 20 m, 200 m inc. to 2 km, 1 km inc. to 16 km

February 2007 Optical Depth

2007, Witek, M. L., P. J. Flatau, P. K. Quinn, and D. L. Westphal, Global sea-salt modeling: Results and validation against multicampaign shipboard measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D08215, doi:10.1029/2006JD007779.

NAVDAS-AOD: NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System – Aerosol Optical Depth

Purpose: Data assimilation for aerosol optical depth (2-d Var)

Status: Operational, 4x dailyInput: NRL Level 3 MODIS AOD

(6-h data window)R&D: MISR, CALIPSO

Future input: NPP, JPSS DWSS, AVHRR, MetOp, MSG, MTSAT, AATSR, GOES-R

Output:Aerosol analysis and: 3-d distribution of each species

error statisticsTemporal resolution: 3 hourlyDistribution: NAAPS and FAROP; web

2008, Zhang, J., J. S. Reid, D. L. Westphal, N. L. Baker, and E. J. Hyer, A system for operational aerosol optical depth data assimilation over global oceans, J. Geophys. Res., 113, doi:10.1029/2007JD009065.

Unclassified

Unclassified

+ Ocean MODIS+ Ocean MODIS+ land/Ocean MISR

Multi-sensor assimilation is critical to aerosol assimilation.

Multi-sensor data assimilation

Natural run + Land/Ocean MODIS+ Land/Ocean MISR

NA

APS

AO

D

AERONET AOD

72h Forecast of Dust AOD, Valid 00Z 10 September, 2011

NAAPS Ensemble Forecast of Saharan Dust Transport to the Americas

NAAPS Customers

DoD• Dust forecasting in Iraq and Afghanistan• Calculation of extinction coefficients• Dust screening of SST retrievals• Ocean color correction• Fleet synthetic training• Scene and radiance correction

Other• Satellite algorithm development• Analysis of LRT • Analysis of extreme air pollution events• Forecasting for field missions

Utilized in 32 peer-reviewed publications

NAAPS on Google Earth

Scene correction

NAAPS Simulation of Transport of Saharan Dust

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35

CFU

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Dus

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May 22, 2003 June 30, 2003

• Investigated long-range transport processes and pathways• NAAPS used to support study of viable bacteria and fungi transport from

Africa to the Caribbean

2006, Airborne microorganisms and African desert dust over the mid-Atlantic ridge, Ocean Drilling Program, Leg 209, D. W. Griffin, D. L. Westphal, and M. A. Gray, accepted by J. Env. Microbiol.

Integrate NAAPS data with visualization and exploration tools and DSS applications.

Combine NAAPS and other data for Exceptional Event analysis with

EPA and States

Surface aerosol chemical data and back trajectories confirm the

Asian origin of dust

NAAPS dust AOD indicates transport from Asia over the Pacific

Vertical profile at any location, time or

integrated

Time series at any location, time or integrated

DataFed and VIEWS: Providing NAAPS Products for Exceptional Event Analysis

NAAPS Data Delivery Case: Sahara Dust Impact on Texas Air Quality, 2006

1. A NOAA-TCEQ project needs LRT (NAAPS) for their analysis2. NOAA data request forwarded to the NAAPS data archive at DataFed 3. The data are extracted and delivered as standard CF-netCDF files

Dust surface concentration, vert. profile, AOD along the research ship track Gridded 4D NAAPS for TX-Mex and the ship track regions, May-Sep 2006

Dust AOD along ship track

Dust surface concentration

NAAPS dust AODJul 31, 2006

NAAPS Data Delivery Case: Sahara Dust Impact on Texas Air Quality, 2006

In DataFed, NAAPS data can be extracted along multiple dimensions

Layer Concentration

Surface Concentration

Layer ConcentrationMay-Sep 2006

Surface ConcentrationMay-Sep 2006

Spatial pattern at specified height, time

Time series at given height and location

The data extraction domain is defined by the DataFed GUI interfaceBased on the data extraction, the 4D pattern can be exploredThe user can then combine the NAAPS data subset with other data

Saharan Dust Over N. America?

May 1 June 1 July 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Oct 1

May 1 June 1 July 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Oct 1

NAAPS composition at Houston shows strong daily and seasonal dependence

Houston AOD

Houston AOD Contribution

May 1 June 1 July 1 Aug 1 Sept 1 Oct 1

Summary:

1. We have developed operational global aerosol forecasting with data assimilation.

2. Developing distribution of NAAPS via existing DSS DataFed and VIEWS. Available back to 2001.

3. Suitable for quantifying impact LRT to Americas.

westphal@nrlmry.navy.mil(831) 656-4743

www.nrlmry.navy.mil/aerosol/

Saharan Dust Analyses and Forecasts for the Americas

Mesoscale COAMPS Operational Forecasts

COAMPS 24-h Visibility Forecast VT 12Z 20091108

FNMOC Dust Enhancement Product 0950Z 20091108

30 N 30 N

Example: Zabol and Khandahar November 8, 2009

Mobilization occurs on fine scales

Validity of SAL Conceptual Model

SAL model not valid during much of PRIDE Campaign

NAAPS Ensemble20 Members from NOGAPS Ensemble

NAAPS DeterministicEnsemble Mean

Reasonable variations in dynamical forcing yield large variations