2. Travel markets - Department of Infrastructure ... · 2. Travel markets 2.1 Introduction As...

High Speed Rail Phase 2 / 63

2. Travel markets

2.1 IntroductionAsdescribedinChapter 1,phase2ofthestudyinvolvedthedevelopmentofmodelstoforecastthelikelyfuturetravelmarketontheeastcoastofAustraliaandthepotentialfuturedemandforHSRcomparedtotravelviaalternativemodes.

ThedemandforecastswerefundamentaltotheappraisalofthealternativealignmentsandstationoptionsforthepreferredHSRsystem.Theywerealsocriticalinputstotheappraisaloftheeconomicandcommercialperformanceofthepreferredsystem,andwereusedintheappraisaloftheregionaldevelopmenteffectsandopportunities.

Thischapterdescribeshowthecurrenttravelmarketwasevaluatedandprovidesanoverviewofthecurrentsituation.Italsooutlinesthefuturetravelmarketintheeastcoastcorridor,bothwithandwithoutHSR(thereferencecaseandbasecaserespectively),andprovidesthestrategiccontextforadiscussionofafutureHSRprogram.

2.1.1 Study areaThestudyareaforthedemandforecastingisillustratedinFigure 2-1.ItencompassesthepreferredHSRcorridorfromphase1,crossingthreestatesandoneterritory(Queensland,NewSouthWales(NSW),VictoriaandtheAustralianCapitalTerritory(ACT)),andextendingapproximately1,700 kilometresfromendtoend.

Toallowcloseranalysisoftraveldemandwithinthecorridor,particularlywithinmetropolitanareaswhereitwasnecessarytodifferentiatebetweenpotentialHSRstationlocations,thestudyareawasdividedintotensectorsand167zones.

The167zonesarebasedon‘statisticallocalareas’(SLAs)andarethusconsistentwithstandardemploymentandpopulationdata.TheyarealsoconsistentwiththezonesystemsusedinmetropolitantransportmodelsandhavebeendesignedtoallowreadyanalysisofpotentialHSRstations.Thetensectorsintowhichtheyhavebeenaggregatedforpresentationalpurposesrepresentthesixlargestcitiesandthefour‘intermediate’areasbetweenthesecities.

Chapter 2 Travel markets

Figure 2-1 Study area for the demand forecasting showing the geographical subdivision into 10 sectors and 167 zones

5

9

67

2

1

3

4

8

10

Melbourne

Intermediate

Canberra

Intermediate

Sydney

Intermediate

Newcastle

Intermediate

Gold Coast

Brisbane

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


2.2 ApproachThedatausedintheforecastswasindependentlyverifiedwhereverpossibleandbenchmarkedagainstinternationalexperience.Inaddition,aconservativeviewwasadoptedwherevertherewereuncertaintiesintheforecastingprocess.

Thedemandforecastingaddressedthefollowingkeyquestions:• Whatarethemainmarketsintheeastcoast

corridorthatHSRcouldpotentiallyserve?• Whatisthesizeofthesemarketsandhoware

theysplitbetweenthealternativetransportmodes(car,rail,coachandair)?

• Howwouldthetravelmarketsgrowinthefuture?• Whatwouldbethepotentialfordiversionfrom

currenttransportmodestoanHSRnetwork?• Howsensitivewouldthelevelofthatdiversion

betoHSRperformanceandtothealternativefuturescenarios?

Thesequestionswereaddressedasfollows.

Estimatesofinter-capitalandregionaltravelalongtheeastcoastcorridorforeachtransportmodewerederivedfromexistingtraveldatafortheeastcoastcollectedbytheNationalVisitorSurvey(NVS),anongoingsurveyofdomestictravelundertakenbyTourismResearchAustralia(TRA),andverifiedagainstindependentdataincludingaspecialsurveyofinter-urbantrafficpatterns.

Paststudiesandspecificanalysesoftrendsinairandcartravelalongtheeastcoastenabledtheforecastsofgrowthinthetravelmarkettoberelatedtotheexpectedfutureincreaseineastcoastpopulationsandincome.

Forecastdemandwouldbederivedfromtwosources:diversionfromexistingmodesoftransporttoanHSRservice,andthe‘induced’travelthatwouldalsoresult(i.e.newtripsmadebypeopletakingadvantageoftheimprovedaccessibilityofferedbytheintroductionofHSR).Theforecastsofdivertedandinduceddemandwerebasedoninternationalmultimodalmodellingpracticeandinformedbyastatedpreference(SP)surveyoftravelbehaviourcarriedoutspecificallyforthestudy.

TheSPsurveywasusedtogaugetravelbehaviourbyaskingpeopletoindicatewhattheirpreferencewouldbe,ratherthandeterminingthisinformationthroughobservationofactual behaviour.

Asdiscussedinsection 1.2.1,thedemandforecastsexcludeHSRcommuterservices.

2.3 Current travel market

2.1.2 Journey numbersThesizeofthecurrenttravelmarketontheeastcoastwasestimatedfromtheNVS,whichtakesaccountofbusinessandnon-businesstravel,excludingcommuting.Asampleofnearly150,000dayandovernighttripsformedthebasisofthecurrentmarketestimate,takenfrom11yearsofNVSsurveys(2000to2010)andannualisedtoanumberfor2009,theyearadoptedduringphase 1ofthestudy.Tripsgreaterthan50 kilometreswithinthestudyareaendinginoneofthemajortownsorcities(Brisbane,GoldCoast,Newcastle,Sydney,Wollongong,CanberraandMelbourne)wereincluded.

Sometravelwasomittedbecauseitcoveredonlyashortdistance,orwouldbebestservedbycar,implyingthatfewsuchjourneyswouldbelikelytotransfertoHSR.Thisincludedalltravelwhollywithineachoftheintermediateareas,otherthanthattoandfromWollongong.AsmallproportionoftheomittedlongertripscoulduseHSR,andtothisextent,theHSRforecastsareconservative.Tripstoandfromplacesexternaltothestudyareawerealsoexcluded.

Theestimateofthe2009eastcoasttravelmarketisapproximately152milliontripsperyear.Thetotalnumberofjourneysinbothdirectionsin2009betweeneachofthetensectorsshowninFigure 2-1 issummarisedinTable 2-1.TheexcludedtripsreferredtoaboveareshownbyanXinthetable.


Table2-1 Totaltravelmarketfor2009(‘000tripsperyear)

Sect

ors

Bri

sban

e

Go

ld C

oas

t

Inte

rmed

iate

New

cast

le

Inte

rmed

iate

Syd

ney

Inte

rmed

iate

Can

ber

ra

Inte

rmed

iate

Mel

bo

urne

Tota

l

Brisbane X 18,780 2,920 280 240 3,780 580 560 500 2,480

Gold Coast X 3,340 200 180 1,880 400 160 340 1,200

Intermediate X 2,960 X 5,160 220 240 X 440

Newcastle X 3,020 6,900 980 220 140 320

Intermediate X 12,400 300 260 X 220

Sydney X 23,880 4,640 1,860 6,300

Intermediate 2,640* 2,500 160 700

Canberra X 1,120 1,240

Intermediate X 35,180

Melbourne X

Total 151,780

*Tripsofover50kilometresbetweenWollongongandtheremainderoftheintermediateareainwhichitisincluded.

Thegreatestdemandinthestudyarea,asrepresentedbythenumberoftripswithinandbetweensectors,wasforrelativelyshorttripsbetweenthecapitalcitiesandadjacentsectors.Forexample,in2009:• Approximately35milliontripsweremade

betweenMelbourneandtheintermediateareabetweenMelbourneandCanberra.

• Approximately24milliontripsweremadebetweenSydneyandtheintermediateareabetweenSydneyandCanberra.

• Approximately19milliontripsweremadebetweentheGoldCoastandBrisbane.

Tripsbetweenthecapitalcities(thatis,withtheirorigininonecapitalcityanddestinationinanother)aresmallerincomparison,althougharecomparableintermsofpassengerkilometresduetothelongdistancesinvolved.Examplesare:• Oversixmilliontripsweremadebetween

SydneyandMelbourne.• Almostfourmilliontripsweremadebetween

SydneyandBrisbane.

2.3.1 Journey typesSixjourneytypesweredifferentiated,definedbylengthandpurpose(businessornon-business),showninTable 2-2.ThesharesoftravelforeachtransportmodebyjourneytypeareshowninTable 2-3(trips)andTable 2-4(persontravelkilometres).Overall,airtravelaccountedfor13percentoftrips,almostevenlysplitbetweenbusinessandotherpurposes.Cartravelaccountedfor78percentoftripsandrailforsixpercent.Inbothcasesaminorityofthejourneyswereforbusiness.Coachtravelaccountedforthreepercentoftrips.

Theairshareofthelongdistancejourneystoandfromthemaincitieswasveryhighforbothtrippurposes(79percentfornon-businessand96percentforbusiness).Conversely,fortheregionaltrips,caraccountedformosttravelinthecorridor(over85percent),especiallyfortheshorterjourneys.


Table2-2 Journeytypeusedformarketsegmentation

Journey type

Inter-city

Description Purpose

BusinessJourneysover600kmbetweenthemaintownsandcities*

Non-business

Long regional Allregionaljourneys≥250kmBusiness

Non-business

Short regional Allregionaljourneys<250kmBusiness

Non-business

*ThesixmaintownsandcitiesbasedonpopulationinthecorridorwereBrisbane,GoldCoast,Newcastle,Sydney,CanberraandMelbourne.Sydney-Canberrasitswithinlongregional.Brisbane-GoldCoastandNewcastle-Sydneysitwithinshortregional.

Table2-3 Distributionofeastcoasttravelmarketbymodeoftransportandpurposefor2009(trips)

Purpose Mode of transport Total trips (‘000s)

Air Car Rail Coach

Inter-city

Business 96% 4% 0% 0% 6,930

Non-business 79% 19% 1% 1% 11,280

Long regional

Business* 42% 55% 2% 2% 4,160

Non-business 15% 76% 4% 5% 19,960

Short regional

Business 0% 91% 7% 2% 9,440

Non-business 0% 90% 7% 3% 100,010

Total trips 20,500 118,000 9,100 4,200 151,780(‘000s)

Total trips (%) 13% 78% 6% 3% 100%

*Totaldoesnotaddupexactlyto100%duetorounding.


Table2-4 Distributionofeastcoasttravelmarketbymodeoftransportandpurposefor2009(persontravelkilometres)

Purpose Mode of transport Total person travel kilometres (millions)

Air Car Rail Coach

Inter-city

Business 96% 4% 0% 0% 7,166

Non-business 81% 17% 1% 1% 12,582

Long regional

Business 56% 41% 2% 1% 2,248

Non-business* 29% 64% 4% 4% 10,252

Short regional

Business* 1% 91% 7% 2% 1,184

Non-business 0% 90% 7% 3% 11,742

Total person travel kilometres (millions) 21,313 21,505 1,406 951 45,174

Total person travel kilometres (%) 47% 48% 3% 2% 100%

*Totaldoesnotaddupexactlyto100%duetorounding.Forthecalculationofpersontravelkilometresoneachmode,asinglecommonmeasureofzone-to-zonedistanceisused.

2.3.2 Verification of travel market estimatesAchievinganaccurateestimateofthetravelmarketsizeiscriticaltoachievingreliabledemandforecasts.Itisthereforeveryimportanttoindependentlyverifytheestimate.

Travelsurveysinvolvingcontactingpeopleattheirhomescanbesubjecttobiasesanduncertainties,anditisconsequentlygoodpracticetocomparetheresultsofsuchsurveyswithindependenttraveldemanddatarelatingdirectlytotherelevanttransportmodes.

Existinginformationiscommonlyused,suchascountsofroadtrafficandticketingdataforpublictransportpassengers.Suchdatawasdrawnonfor

thisstudy,supplementedbyamajorcarnumberplatesurveyspecificallyundertakentoverifythecartravelmarket.ThefollowingsectionsexplaintheprocessesundertakentoverifythetravelmarketestimatesderivedfromtheNVS.

Air and rail travelReliableindependentinformationbasedonrailandairticketingdatawasobtainedfromtheBureauofInfrastructure,TransportandRegionalEconomics(BITRE)1forairtravelandCountryLink2forrailtravel.ThedatagainedfromthesesourceswascomparedwiththetravelmarketestimatesforairandrailshowninTable 2-5andTable 2-6.Fortherelativelysmallnumbersofrailtrips,thetravelmarketestimatescloselymatchedtheCountryLink values.

1 BITREispartoftheDepartmentofInfrastructureandTransport.2 CountryLinkispartofthegovernment-ownedRailCorporationNSW,andprovidesregionalandinterstatepassengerrailservicesin

NSW,Queensland,theACTandVictoria.


Table2-5 Annualrailtripsbyroutefor2009

Route Travel market estimate (NVS)

Total volume observed

(CountryLink)

Difference

Sydney-Melbourne 68,000 75,000 -9%

Brisbane-Sydney 26,000 27,000 -4%

Sydney-Canberra 53,000 55,000 -4%

ThetravelmarketestimatesforairwerelowerthanBITRE’stotalairpassengercounts,partlybecausetransferpassengerswereincludedintheBITREcountsbutnotfullyrepresentedinthetravelmarketestimates.TheproportionoftransfersonsomeofthekeydomesticrouteswasobtainedfromglobalairlineticketingdatabaseMIDT(MarketingInformationDataTransfer),asshowninTable 2-6.Transferpassengersaccountformuchofthedifferencebetweenthemarketestimatesandthecounts.Theevidencefromtheseindependentdatasourcessuggestedthatthemarketestimatesofnon-transferairpassengersontheserouteswerereasonable,albeitslightlyconservative,theexceptionbeingthetwoGoldCoastroutes,wherethemarketestimateunderestimatedtheobservedairdemand3.

Table2-6 Airtripsbetweenmajorcitiesbyroutefor2009(millions)

Route Travel Total volume Difference Estimated market observed transfer % estimate (BITRE)4 (MIDT)(NVS)

Sydney-Melbourne 5.5 7.1 -23% 15%

Brisbane-Sydney 3.3 4.3 -24% 22%

Brisbane-Melbourne 2.3 2.7 -14% 9%

Gold Coast-Sydney 1.4 2.1 -31% 17%

Gold Coast-Melbourne 1.1 1.6 -31% 0%

Canberra-Melbourne 0.9 1.1 -21% 12%

Sydney-Canberra 0.6 1.0 -45% 36%

Car travel and the number plate surveyThediversionofcartraveltoHSRwasexpectedtoaccountforasignificantproportionofHSRdemand,soverificationofthecartravelmarketwasimportant.However,thetraditionalsourceofcartravelmarketvalidationdata,trafficcounts,couldnotprovideaneffectivebasisforvalidation,becausemediumandlongdistancecartravel,

whichisthemarketforHSR,couldnotbedistinguishedfromothertrips.

Alarge-scalenumberplatematchingsurveywasthereforecommissionedbetweenSydneyandMelbournetoprovideindependentdatathatcouldbeusedtovalidatethecartravelmarketestimatesderivedfromtheNVS.Thesurveyusedspecialised

3 Thesensitivitytestingdescribedinsection 2.9specificallyaddressedtheimplicationsoftheseconservativemarketestimates.4 BITRE,aviationstatistics,2009.


videoequipmenttorecordnumberplatesovera includescars,utilityvans,lightvans,bicycles24hourperiodforfivedays,fromWednesday7 and motorcycles.toSunday11December2011inclusive,capturing

Theoverallvolumeoftrafficwassimilarforthenorthboundtrafficatsixlocationsalongthetwosources,buttherewerevariationsfortheHumeHighwaybetweenSeymourinVictoriaanddifferentjourneys.ThelargestvariationwasforCampbelltowninNSW.Overall,289,888vehiclesthelongestcarjourneysbetweenSydneyandwereobserved.MoredetailonthenumberplateMelbourne,wherethesurveyalongtheHumematchingsurveycanbefoundinAppendix 1C.Highwaywouldhavemissedtripswhichhadtaken

Table 2-7comparessixdemandflowestimatesfor thecoastalrouteviathePrincesHighwayorthelightvehiclesinthecorridorbetweenMelbourne inlandrouteviatheOlympicWay,aswellassomeandSydneyderivedfromthenumberplatesurvey tripsinvolvingstopovers.Fortheother,shorter,withequivalentestimatesfromtheNVSdata. journeys,whicharemoreimportantforestimating‘Lightvehicles’includeAustroadsclasses1and cardiversiontoHSR,theNVSestimateofthe2(twoaxlevehiclesupto5.5metreswithor cartravelmarketoneachofthesejourneyswaswithouttowingacaravan,trailer,boat,etc.)and consistentwiththenumberplatesurveyestimates.

Table2-7 Comparisonofestimatesoflightvehicletravelmarketbyroutefor2009(‘000annualvehicles)–NVSdataandnumberplatesurvey

Journey NVS estimate Number plate survey*

Melbourne-Albury 626 493

Melbourne-Canberra 203 163

Melbourne-Sydney 528 259

Albury-Canberra 61 81

Albury-Sydney 85 71

Canberra-Sydney 2,201 2,639

Total 3,704 3,705

*Totaldoesnotaddupexactlyduetorounding.

Theoutstandingdifferencesindemandestimatesatthemonitoringsiteswereduetoacombinationofthedatauncertaintiesassociatedwiththesurveys,andtheinherentuncertaintiesinthecomparisonoftwosuchdifferentsurveys.Consequently,thesensitivitytesting(describedinsection 2.9)makesallowanceforuncertaintiesinthemarketestimates,includingthoseassociatedwithcurrentcartraveldemand.

MorediscussiononthecurrenttravelmarketcanbefoundinAppendix 1B.

2.4 Future travel marketThesecondstageinthedemandforecastingwastoestimatewhatthetravelmarketwouldlooklikeinthefuture,wereanHSRprogramnotpursued.Thisrequiredassumptionstobemadeaboutgrowthinpopulationandtheeconomy,andaboutthefuturetransportsystemwithoutHSR.Theseassumptionsarereferredtoasthebasecase,anditscharacteristicsarediscussedinthenextsection (2.4.1).

Thisisfollowedinsection 2.4.2 byadiscussionoftheforecasttraveldemandinthecontextofthesebasecaseconditions.


2.1.3 Base case ThebasecaseassumesnoHSRthroughouttheevaluationperiod,withspecificforecastsbeingpreparedfor2035,2050and2065.Itisinfourparts:• Populationandemploymentforecastsbasedon

stateandABSprojections5.• Roadandpublictransportlevel-of-service

scenarios,whichtakeintoaccounttheexpectedfuturetransportinfrastructure.

• Aviationscenarios,animportantelementofwhichisthefutureaviationcapacityforSydney(thebasecaseassumesthattherewillbenosecondSydneyAirport).

• Economicscenarios,coveringeconomicgrowthandthefuturecostsoftransport,uponwhichthetraveldemandgrowthforecastsinthestudyareaalsodepend.

Thedefiningcharacteristicsofthebasecasearediscussedbelow,withmoredetailprovidedinAppendix 1F.

Population and employment forecastsAsillustratedinFigure 2-2,populationgrowthwasforecastforallstatesandmajorcitiesalongtheeastcoast.SydneyandMelbournewouldcontinuetohousethemajorityofeachstate’spopulation(around68percentand79percentrespectively).BrisbanewouldalsocontinuetohouseasignificantproportionofQueensland’spopulation(45percent).

Stateforecastsofcitycentreemploymentgrowthwereusedtotheextentthatdatawasavailable.Beyondthestateprojectionperiods,itwasassumedthatcitycentreemploymentgrowthto2065wouldbethesameastheoverallpopulationgrowthofthemetropolitanarea.

5 Foracompletelistofpopulationandemploymentforecastsdatasources,seeAppendix 1F.


Figure 2-2 Forecast population growth along the east coast (‘000)

NSW VIC QLD

Remainder Capital city

7,202

9,894

8,199

5,516

37%

63%

32%

68%

26%

74%

21% 55%

45%

56%

44%

79%

4,562

8,225

+37%

+49% +80%

2011 2011 20112050 2050 2050

ACT

356492

2011 2050

+38%

Source: ABS6.

6 ABS, Population Projections Australia 2006 to 2101, catalogue no. 3222.0 (mid-range projections).


Road and public transport levels of service Forecastlevel-of-servicedataforfuturejourneysbyroadandpublictransportintheSydneyregionandthemetropolitanareasofBrisbaneandMelbournewasobtainedfromthestatetransportdepartments.Theinformationwasderivedfromthestatetransportmodelsandincludedfutureinfrastructureandserviceimprovements7.

TheinformationwasusedtoestimateaccessandegresstimestoHSRstationsandtheairportsandalsoforestimatingthejourneytimesforthemetropolitancomponentofregionalroadjourneys.

Outsidethemetropolitanareas,thelevelofservicebyroad,railandcoachwasassumedunchangedfrom2009levels,onthebasisthatfutureinfrastructureinvestmentwouldmaintainthecurrentinter-urbantransportlevelsofservice.

Aviation scenariosThebasecaseassumesnosecondSydneyAirport,althoughaviationpassengercapacityisassumedtoincreasewithgreaterflightfrequenciesandincreasinglylargeraeroplanes.BasedontheJointStudyandBITREaviationforecasts,domesticairservicefrequenciesatSydneyAirportwereassumedtoincreaseby36percentbetween2009and2035,andremainconstantthereafterwhentheairporthasreachedcapacity.ForserviceswhichdonotuseSydneyAirportandwouldthereforenotbecapacity-constrained(suchasBrisbane-Melbourne),theincreasesinfrequencyassumedwerelarger:60percent,80percentand100percentin2035,2050and2065respectively.Airfareswereassumedtocontinuetodeclineuntil2015(by0.5percentperyear)andthenremainconstantinrealtermsthroughtheforecastperiod,consistentwiththeJointStudy8.

Internationalexperience9supportsthefollowingconclusionsregardingtheresponseofairlinestocompetingHSRservices:• Airservicesarelikelytobecurtailedor

withdrawnwhereHSRservicesofferacompetitivetransportalternative.

• Fullservicecarriers(FSCs)willcontinuetosupporttheirnetworkstrategiesonmajorinter-cityroutes,albeitwithsmalleraircraft,buttheymayreduceservicefrequenciesonlowyieldroutes.

• Lowcostcarriers(LCCs)arelikelytorespondbytransferringservicestomoreprofitableroutes.

• AreductionintheairmarketsizefollowingtheintroductionofHSRmayservetoincreasecompetitionbetweenFSCsandLCCsforsomemajorinter-cityroutes,andultimatelyputsomedownwardpressureonairfares.

Itisnotexpectedthatairlinescould,orwould,respondtoHSRcompetitionbyreducingtheirfaresonasustainedbasis.Rather,ithasbeenassumedthatairlineswouldquicklyreducecapacity,eitherbyreducingfrequenciesoraircraftsizes,tolocationswithintheHSRcorridorwherethereissignificantpassengerdiversiontoHSR10.Thisassumptionisconsistentwithoverseasexperiencewhere,followingtheintroductionofHSR,theairlineresponsehasgenerallybeentoreduceservicesonthecompetitiveroute.Forexample,AirFrancerespondedtothecompletionoftheParis-MarseilleHSRTGVroutebyreducingservicesandEasyJetexitedtheroute.InJapantherehasbeensomelimitedpricecompetitionfromtheairlinesoncompetingroutestotheShinkansen,althougharguablytheJapanesedomesticairlinemarketwaslesscompetitivethanAustralia’sisnow.

7 Statetransportmodelsare:theSydneyStrategicTravelModel(STM)heldbytheBureauofTransportStatistics,TransportNSW;theVictorianIntegratedTransportModel(VITM)heldbytheDepartmentofTransport,Victoria;theBrisbaneStrategicTransportModel–Multi-Modal(BSTM-MM)heldbytheModelling,DataandAnalysisCentre,DepartmentofTransportandMainRoads,Queensland.

8 ibid.9 Forexample,theEurostarservicesacrosstheEnglishChannel,theParis-MarseilleTGVserviceandtheHSRservicesinChina.10 ItislikelythatanyreductionincapacitywillberedeployedtoroutesoutsidetheHSRcorridor.


Airlinesoperatingalongkeyregionalandinter-capitalroutesacrosstheeastcoastofAustraliaalreadycompetestronglyagainsteachother,andfarelevelsofmanyfareclasseshavedeclinedovertime,whichsuggeststhatairfarelevelsarealreadyhighlycompetitiveonmajorroutes.

Thesensitivitytestsreportedinsection 2.9includetestsoftheimpactsontheHSRforecastsofvariationsinbothairandHSRfares,includingonescenarioinwhichairfaresarereducedby50percentfortwoyears.

ThedemandatSydneyAirportwas37millionpassengersperyearin2010.AccordingtotheJointStudy,byaround2035theairportisexpectedtobeatcapacity11.Subsequentpassengerdemandwouldexceedtheavailablecapacityand,increasingly,somejourneyswouldnotbecateredfor.TheJointStudyestimatedthat,afterthispoint,therewouldbelongerdelays(onaveragean11minuteincreaseinunexpecteddelays)duetoreducedreliability,andareducedabilityofpassengerstotravelattheirpreferredtimes,withhigherfaresbeingusedtospreadpeakdemand,equivalenttoanaveragesevenpercentincreaseinaviationfares.Theseassumptionshavebeenmaintainedinthereferencecase.

Additionally,thesensitivityofHSRdemandtotheimpactsofadditionalaviationcapacityintheSydneyregionwastested.Thistestassumedthat,evenifanadditionalairportwasbuilttocaterforinter-cityairtraffic,SydneyAirportwouldremainthepreferreddestinationformostflightswhichwouldcompetewithHSR,becauseofitsproximitytothecentreofSydneyanditswell-developedsupportinginfrastructure.Thiscouldnotbeeasilyreplicatedbyanewairportinanyotherfeasibleidentifiedlocation.Asaresult,SydneyAirportwouldremainneartocapacityintermsofslotutilisation,butwithoutthepreviouslyassumedpenaltiesrelatingtounreliabilityandtheunavailabilityofpreferreddeparturetimes.

Economic scenariosEconomicprojectionswereunderpinnedbygrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andgrossstateproduct(GSP)projectionsbasedonthe‘3Ps’methodologyusedintheAustralianGovernment’sIntergenerationalReport(IGR)201012.Thismethodologyassumesthattrendgrowthratesovertheforecasthorizonto2065areafunctionofpopulation, productivityandlabourforceparticipation,asdeterminedbyABSdemographicassumptionsandstatetreasuryeconomicassumptions.

RealAustralianGDPgrowthovertheperiodto206513isprojectedtoaverage2.5percentperyear.ThisiscomposedofaverageannualrealGDPperpersongrowthof1.5percentandaverageannualgrowthinthetotalpopulationofonepercent.Thiscompareswiththeaverageofthepasttwodecadesof3.1 percentperyear,duringwhichtherewasstrongeraveragegrowthinrealGDPperpersonof1.8 percentandfasteraveragegrowthinthetotalpopulationof1.4percenteachyear.

RealGSPgrowthratesintheeastcoastcorridorto2065areprojectedtovarybystateandterritory,fromanaverageof1.9percentperyearfortheACTto2.9percentperyearforQueensland.RealGSPpercapitaisforecasttogrowfromanaverageof1.1percentfortheACTto1.5percentforVictoriaandQueensland.

Fuelpriceisanimportantfactorinpeople’sprivatevehicletraveldecisionsandininfluencingpublictransportfares.Thebasecaseassumesfuelpricescontinuetoincreaseinrealterms,drivenbycrudeoilprices,althoughthisincreasewillbeatleastpartlyoffsetbyimprovedfuelefficiencyfromadvancesintechnology.AsummaryoftheparametersthatwillimpactonthefuturecostoftravelisgiveninTable 2-8,anddiscussedfurtherinAppendix 1F.

11 AustralianGovernmentandNSWGovernment,loc.cit.12 AustralianGovernment,Australia to 2050: future challenges,January2010.13 Growthbeyond2065isextrapolatedforcommercialperformanceandeconomicappraisalinaccordancewithratesgiveninAppendix 5A.


Table2-8 Basecaseeconomicparameterassumptions

Economic parameter Assumption

GSP/capita Forecasttogrowonaverage1.1%to1.5%to2065inthecorridor,varyingbystate.

peryearinrealterms

Air fares Declineby0.5%constant.Thisis

peryearinrealconsistentwith

termsfrom2012Study14theJoint .

to2015,then

HSR fares Followreflects

thesametrendasthatofairfares.

airfares.BaseHSRfarestructure

Standard inter-urban/country rail fares

From2011,arealincreaseof55%by2035,thenincreaseto2065(a65%increaseover2011).

agradual

Coach fares From2011,a3%realincreaseby2065.

Vehicle operating costs From2011,a13%realincreaseby2065.

Airport/station parking charges Constantinrealtermsin$2012.

Taxi fares Constantinrealtermsin$2012.

Local metropolitan bus and rail fares

Constantinrealtermsin$2012.

TheHSRfarestructureissimilartothatforair,withtwocomponents:afixedflagfallandonevaryingdirectlywithdistance.Onthekeyroutes,Sydney-MelbourneandBrisbane-Sydney,whereHSRwouldbecompetitivewithairtravel,HSRfareshavebeenmodelledtobecomparableto,andcompetitivewith,inter-cityairfares.However,tocompeteeffectivelyonshorterrouteswhereHSR’sprimarycompetitoriscar,theflagfallhasbeensetlowerthanthecomparableairfigure,withacorrespondinglyhigherdistancecomponent.Asaresult,modelledHSRfaresaretypicallylowerthanmodelledairfaresforshorterregionaljourneys,andhigherthanairfaresforlongerjourneys(e.g.Brisbane-Melbourne).

Table 2-9outlinesthecomparativefaresacrossselectedroutes.Inpractice,arangeoffareswillbeofferedoneachroutebasedonseatutilisation,bookingflexibilityandotherfactors,asisthecasewithairfares.

14 AustralianGovernmentandNSWGovernment,loc.cit.


Table2-9 Selectedreferencecasefaresfor2065($2012pricelevels)

From To Travel distance (km)

Leisure fare Business fare

Brisbane Newcastle 662 $71 $117

Brisbane Sydney 797 $83 $136

Brisbane Canberra 1,077 $125 $205

Brisbane Melbourne 1,621 $169 $277

Newcastle Sydney 134 $31 $52

Newcastle Canberra 415 $73 $121

Sydney Canberra 280 $42 $69

Sydney Melbourne 824 $86 $141

Canberra Melbourne 651 $71 $117

Albury-Wodonga Melbourne 284 $42 $70

Unlikeairfares,theHSRfaresstructurehasastrongrelationshipwithjourneydistanceasisthecasefortravelbycar,withwhichHSRcompetesfortheshorterjourneysalongtheeastcoastcorridor.For example,HSRleisurefaresforSydney-Canberrajourneysarefarlowerthanairfaresandthereforemuchcloserto(butstillhigherthan)thecostoftheequivalentcarjourney.

Forbusinesstravelbycar,thevehicleoperatingcostsperperson(allowingfortheaveragegroupsize)arebroadlysimilartotheassumedHSRfaresovermostdistances.Fortypicalnon-businessjourneys,theHSRfareisabout$20to$30perpersonhigherthantheperceivedcostperpersonoftravelbycarattheaverageoccupancy;forsingle-personoccupancy,however,HSRisgenerallycomparablypricedorcheaper.

Accesscostssuchastaxifares,airportandstationparkingcharges,andmetropolitanbusandrailfares,alsoinfluencetransportmodechoice.Theseaccesscostshavebeenassumedtoremainconstantinrealterms.

2.4.1 Forecast travel demandForecastsfortraveldemandhavebeenproducedfor2035,2050and2065,withtravelforintermediateyearsbeingderivedbyinterpolationandforyearsthroughto2085byextrapolation.

Thetravelmarketforfutureyearswasforecastbyfactoringthe2009basetravelmarketbytheestimatedratesofgrowthintraveldemand.Thegrowthintraveldemandfrom2009hasbeenbasedontwomainfactors,futurepopulationgrowthandincomegrowth,asmeasuredbyGSPpercapita15.ThismethodologyisbasedontechniquesusedbyBITRE.Thegrowthintraveldemandwasproportionaltotheaveragepopulationgrowthforecastfortheoriginanddestinationzonesofeachjourney.Itwasalsorelatedtothegrowthinincome(GDPpercapita),withthedegreeofincomesensitivity(orelasticity16)beingdeterminedseparatelyforair,railandcoachtravel,basedondatafrompreviousstudiesandsupplemented,forair,byadditionalanalysesofaviationtrends.

15 Thefurtherinfluenceoftransportaccessibilityandpricesonthebalanceofoveralltraveldemandbetweenthetransportmodeshasbeenforecastseparatelythroughthemodechoiceforecastingprocedures,describedinsection 2.5.

16 ‘Incomeelasticity’isameasureoftheextenttowhichthedemandforagoodorserviceisalteredbyachangeinincome.Ahighmeasureofelasticityindicatesacommoditythatislikelytobeinhigherdemandasincomeincreases(e.g.luxurygoods),whilealowmeasureofelasticitysuggeststhatdemandforthegoodorserviceisnotsignificantlyinfluencedbyincome(e.g.staplefoods).


Therewaslimitedevidenceaboutthesensitivityof Relationshipswereestimatedbetweenthegrowththegrowthinmediumandlongdistancecartravel inrurallightvehicletrafficat56sitesandthetoincomegrowth.Thiswassufficientlyimportant growthinpercapitaGDP,populationandchangesthatfurtherinformationwassoughtthrough infuelprices,allowingfortheimpactsofnetworkaspecificanalysisofthetrendsinlightvehicle changesinthecorridor.Theanalysisconfirmedthattrafficflowonthemajorinter-cityhighwaysinthe cartraveldemandgrowssignificantlywithincome,corridor.Trafficcountdatadescribingthetrends andanappropriateelasticityofcartraveldemandtoinlightvehicletrafficvolumesat56sitesonthe incomegrowthwasidentified.HumeandPacificHighwaysoverthetwodecades

Theresultingsetofincomeelasticitiesonwhichto2011wasassembled.Thisdemonstratedthatthedemandforecastingwasbasedaregiveninrurallightvehicletraffichadgrown,onaverage,Table 2-10.Asshortdistancetravelislikelytobebyapproximately2.7to3.0percentperyearoverlesssensitivetoincomegrowth,theconservativethepasttwodecadesacrossruralsectionsoftheassumptionwasmadethattheincomegrowthHumeHighwayinVictoriaandNSW,andonruralelasticitiesforshortregionaljourneyswerelowersectionsofthePacificHighwayinNSW.(by50percent).Thetraveldemandelasticities

AcomparisonwithpublishedABSpopulation wereassumedtomature(i.e.reduce)throughtime,statisticsforthesameperiodshowsaverageannual therateofmaturingforairbeingconsistentwithpopulationgrowthratesof1.0percent,1.1percent, theJointStudy17.Intheabsenceofevidenceon1.2percentand2.1percentinNSW,Victoria,the maturationratesofthecar,coachandraildemandACTandQueenslandrespectively–verymuch elasticities,afastermaturationrate(implyingalessthanthetrafficgrowthratesinthecorridor. reducinggrowthrate)hasbeenused,againasaOverthesameperiod,income(GDPpercapita)has conservativeassumption.increasedby1.8percentperyearonaverageandcarfuelpricesby4.6percentperyearonaverage.

Table2-10 Incomeelasticitiesofvarioustravelmodes

Year Air Car Rail/Coach

Inter-city / Short regional Inter-city / Short regionallong regional long regional

2009 1.00 0.80 0.40 0.57 0.28

2035 0.88 0.62 0.31 0.44 0.22

2050 0.82 0.54 0.27 0.38 0.19

2065 0.76 0.46 0.22 0.33 0.16

Forthebasecasescenario,asaresultofthe By2065,withoutHSR,thetotalcorridordemandassumedgrowthinpopulationandincome,the wouldhavemorethandoubled,from152milliontravelmarket(withoutHSR)isforecasttogrowat tripsin2009toapproximately355milliontripsinapproximately1.9percentperyearto2035,then 2065.Thetotalfuturetravelmarketsfor2035,20501.4percentperyearto2050andafurther1.1per and2065aresummarisedbysectorinTable 2-11centperyearto2065. toTable 2-13.

17 AustralianandNSWGovernments,loc.cit.


Table2-11 Totaltravelmarketforecastfor2035withoutHSR(‘000tripsperyear)

Sect

ors

Bri

sban

e

Go

ld C

oas

t

Inte

rmed

iate

New

cast

le

Inte

rmed

iate

Syd

ney

Inte

rmed

iate

Can

ber

ra

Inte

rmed

iate

Mel

bo

urne

Tota

l

Brisbane X 33,540 4,620 520 430 6,960 1,040 1,100 970 5,080

Gold Coast X 5,440 390 340 3,680 750 320 680 2,540

Intermediate X 4,240 X 8,140 320 400 X 790

Newcastle X 4,320 9,780 1,400 360 230 600


Sydney X 33,580 7,810 3,010 11,820

Intermediate 3,620 3,660 240 1,290



Melbourne X

Total 245,150*

*Thetotaldoesnotexactlymatchthesumofthecellsduetorounding.


Sect

ors

Bri

sban

e

Go

ld C

oas

t

Inte

rmed

iate

New

cast

le

Inte

rmed

iate

Syd

ney

Inte

rmed

iate

Can

ber

ra

Inte

rmed

iate

Mel

bo

urne

Tota

l

Brisbane X 42,410 5,640 670 580 9,550 1,370 1,500 1,320 7,300

Gold Coast X 6,360 500 450 4,940 960 420 910 3,550

Intermediate X 4,690 X 9,760 370 480 X 1,020

Newcastle X 4,870 11,120 1,580 430 270 780


Sydney X 38,700 9,720 3,760 16,150

Intermediate 4,000 4,200 280 1,710



Melbourne X

Total 301,780*




Sect

ors

Bri

sban

e

Go

ld C

oas

t

Inte

rmed

iate

New

cast

le

Inte

rmed

iate

Syd

ney

Inte

rmed

iate

Can

ber

ra

Inte

rmed

iate

Mel

bo

urne

Tota

l

Brisbane X 51,200 6,610 840 750 12,570 1,730 1,960 1,680 9,890

Gold Coast X 7,160 610 570 6,360 1,190 530 1,140 4,740


Newcastle X 5,340 12,290 1,740 490 310 970


Sydney X 43,420 11,660 4,460 20,930

Intermediate 4,300 4,680 320 2,130



Melbourne X

Total 354,760*


2.5 Forecasting the impacts of the preferred HSR system on east coast travel demandFollowingfromthefirstandsecondstagesofthedemandforecastingprocedures(i.e.evaluationofthecurrenttravelmarket,andforecastingoftraveldemandwithoutHSR(thebasecase)),thethirdstagewastoestimatetheimpactsofthepreferredHSRsystem(thereferencecase)onthelevelsoftraveldemandassumedinthebasecase.Theseimpactswouldbetwofold:atransferofdemandfromexistingmodesoftransporttoHSR,andanoverallincreaseintraveldemandresultingfromtheimprovedtransportaccessibility(referredtoasinduceddemand).

Thegeneralapproachtothedemandforecasting,whichisdescribedbelow,wasbasedoninternationalpractice.

2.5.1 Structure of the east coast travel demand forecasting procedureThestructureoftheeastcoasttraveldemandforecastingprocedureisillustratedinFigure 2-3.Atthetoplevelisthebasecasemarketestimate,describedabove,towhichisaddedaprocessforforecastingtheinducedtraveldemand.Atthesecondlevel,thetravelmarketisallocatedtothreegroupsofmodes:car,‘fast’masstransport(airandHSR),and‘slow’masstransport(conventionalrailandcoach).Inthethirdlevel,the‘fast’masstransportdemandisallocatedbetweenHSRandair.Uptothispoint,themodelstructureisverysimilartothatusedinthepreviousAustralianHSRstudies.

Thefurthercomponents(shownasredboxesinFigure 2-3),relatetoadditionalfeaturesdevelopedspecificallyforthisstudy.Twoadditionallevels


were added to the model to assist in making decisions on the locations of city centre and peripheral park-and-ride stations. These deal with metropolitan station choice, and were used to forecast the preference of HSR users for alternative station locations, making allowance for the modes of transport that would be available for travel to and from the stations.

The additional service mix model deals with the pattern of HSR services along the HSR line. Both inter-capital express services (e.g. non-stop Brisbane-Sydney and Sydney-Melbourne) and inter-capital regional services (e.g. between Brisbane and Sydney and Sydney and Melbourne, with varying stopping patterns at regional stations

along the way) would operate (see Chapter 3). This model was used to allocate HSR passenger demand between the different services available, and to capture the effect that a mix of HSR services would have on the HSR demand forecasts.

The procedure also drew on international evidence to allocate appropriate values to the parameters used in this model. This evidence is referenced and discussed in Appendices 1D and 1E. Additionally, to confirm that the demand forecasts reflect Australian travel choice behaviour and are appropriately sensitive to the attributes of the HSR service, an SP survey on the impacts of HSR was carried out in the east coast corridor and the results incorporated in the demand forecasting procedures.

Figure 2-3 Transport modelling methodology summary

CBD station access mode

Metropolitan station choice

Base andinduced

travel

Car Fast mass transport

Coach/ conventional rail

HSR AirHSR service mix


2.5.2 Stated preference surveySPsurveyscanbeusedwhereevidenceontravelchoicebehaviourcannotbeobtainedinreallife.Forexample,whereanewtransportmodesuchasHSRisbeingconsidered,SP surveytechniquesprovideameansofexploringhowpeoplemakingrelevantjourneyswouldreacttotheavailabilityofHSR.

TheobjectivesoftheSPsurveyforthisstudyweretoinvestigatethekeymodelparameters,which determine:• Theoverallsensitivityoftransportmodeshares

tochangesintransportservicecharacteristics(thescalingparameters).

• Howsensitivemodesharesaretotransportprices(the‘valuesoftime’).

• Thechoiceofstationandmodeofstationaccess.• Theextentofpreference(orotherwise)for

HSR,beyondthemeasurableimprovementsinlevelofservice(journeytimes,servicefrequencies,fares,accessandegress),referredtoas‘alternativespecificconstants’(ASCs)18.

Thissurveyfollowedinternationalpractice,inthatpeoplemakingrelevantjourneyswithintheeastcoaststudyareawereidentifiedandpresentedwithhypotheticalscenariosinwhichanHSRservicewouldprovidetheirjourney.TheywerethenaskedtochoosebetweentheirexistingtransportmodeandHSR.EachsurveyrespondentwaspresentedwithninedifferentscenariosinwhichthecompetitivepositionofHSRrelativetotheircurrentmodewasvaried.Morethan2000peopleweresurveyed.

FormalstatisticalanalysisoftravelchoicedataobtainedfromSPsurveysprovidesconsiderableinformationonhowpeopleweighupthedifferentaspectsofeachtransportmodeinchoosingbetweenthealternatives.

ThedesignoftheSPsurveywasinformedbylocalfocusgroupsandapilotsurvey,andalsotooknoteofboththepreviousSpeedrailstudyandtheSPsurveyundertakenforarecentUnitedKingdomHSRstudy19.

Thesurveysamplewasdrawnfromresidentsoftwomajorcities(MelbourneandSydney),twolargepopulationcentres(CanberraandNewcastle)andtworegionaltowns(AlburyandWaggaWagga)whohadrecentlytravelledtoselecteddestinationsinthecorridor.

Surveysamplequotasweredefinedaccordingtohomearea,purpose,journeylengthandmode.FurtherdetailsofthesurveydesignareprovidedinAppendix 1D.

Statistical analysis of survey resultsStatisticalanalysisoftheSPsurveyresultsyieldedinformationaboutthefollowing:• Segmentationandsub-markets:theSPanalysis

confirmedthegeneralstructureofthemodel,basedon(a)businessandnon-business;and(b)adivisionbydistanceintoshortregional,longregional,andinter-city.

• Modechoicehierarchy(theoverallmodelstructurepicturedinFigure 2-3):thesurveyfindingssupportedthemodelassumptionthatHSRismostsimilartotheairmode,andthatthesetwomodesshouldthereforecontinuetoberepresentedinalowerlevelinthehierarchy.Inaddition,theanalysisstronglysupportedstationchoiceandaccessbeingthetwolowestlevelsinthehierarchy.

• Valuesoftime(whichdeterminetheinfluenceoftransportcosts):thestudy’sderivedvaluesoftime(showninFigure 2-14)werewellsupportedintheSPanalysis;highervaluesoftimeforlongerjourneyswerefoundinthepreviousAustralianstudiesandwithinternationalexperience20.

18 Analternativespecificconstant(ASC)representsfactorsthatarenotabletobeexplicitlyincludedinanevaluation(e.g.anaversiontoflyingandapreferenceforHSRbecauseitiseasiertodoworkonthetrain:evidenceonthepreferencesfordifferentmodesisreportedinAppendix 1A).

19 RandEurope,Modellingdemandforlong-distancetravelinGreatBritain,statedpreferencesurveystosupportthemodellingforhigh-speedrail,2011.

20 Seeforexample:AbrantesandWardman,MetaAnalysisofUKValuesofTime:anUpdate(TransportationResearchA),2001andotherevidencereviewedinAppendix 1DincludingtheSpeedrailandVeryFastTrainStudies.


Table2-14 Derivedvaluesoftime($2012/hr)

DistancePurpose

Short regional Long regional Inter-city

Business 38 81 57

Non-business 9.5 20 14

Inacceptedmodellingpractice,SPanalysisshouldnotbedirectlyusedforademandmodelbecauseindividuals’statedpreferencesmaynotmatchtheiractualbehaviour.Instead,SPanalysisshouldbere-scaledusingdatarelatingtoactualchoices(termed‘revealedpreferences’).ThishasbeendoneusingtheNVSdata.FurtherdetailisgiveninAppendix 1D.

Other survey findingsInadditiontotheresultsofthestatisticalanalysis,thesurveyprovidedanumberofinsightsintothelikelyresponsetoanHSRservice.Interestamongrespondentswasgenerallyfavourable.HSRwasconsideredtobeanattractivetraveloption,andmanyrespondentschoseHSRinallscenariospresented,whilesomeofthosewhoneverchoseitinrelationtotheircurrentjourneystillsaidthattheywouldconsideritforotherjourneys.RailpassengersweremostlikelytoswitchtoHSR,followedbyairpassengers.Therewaslessresponsefromexistingcartravellers,manyofwhomhavereasonsotherthantimeandcostforchoosingtotravelbycar.

SurveyresultsindicatedthatHSRwasseenasagoodchoiceforjourneystothelargecentressuchasMelbourne,BrisbaneandtheGoldCoast,andalsoforthoselivingintheregionalareas.ConsiderationofpossiblelocationsforHSRterminalsinthecapitalcitiessuggestedthatexistingmajorCBDterminalswerestronglypreferredbecauseoftheirproximitytowherepeoplestartandendtheirjourneys,andtheiraccesstoconnectingtransportservicestodistributepassengersthroughoutthemetropolitanareas.Thoselivinginthemajorcitiespreferredcentralstationstootherlocations,especiallylocationsthatdidnothavebothgoodpublictransportand

parkingavailable.Thiswaslessofaconcernforthoselivingintheregionalareas.

Model outputsThefinalstageintheforecastingprocedureswasthedevelopmentofmodeloutputstoinformthedevelopmentoftheHSRcorridorandalignment,andtheappraisalprocesses.

Modeloutputtemplatesprovidebothsummaryanddetailedanalysesofthemodelforecastsforallappraisals,includingcorridortraveldemand,HSRtrips,tripkilometres,revenuesanduserbenefits,theimpactsonothermodes,themodesofaccesstoeveryHSRstationandpassengerloadingsonindividualHSRservices.Forecastsareprovidedfortheyear2065,whentheappraisalassumesthatthefullHSRprogramwouldbeimplemented.ThecommercialandeconomicappraisalprovidedinChapters 7 and8takesaccountofthestageddeliveryofHSRdescribedinChapter 6.ThegrowthinHSRdemandarisingfromthestagedimplementationisalsoshowninsection 2.7.

Followingtheintroductionofnewtransportinfrastructureandservices,thereistypicallyadelayinachievingtheforecastdemandlevels,astravellersadapttotheavailabilityofanewtransportfacility.Thisisreferredtoastheramp-upperiod.

Ramp-upontollroadsistypicallyexpectedtobeachievedwithintwoyearsandthisisreportedtobetrueofsomeHSRservices(e.g.manyoftheFrenchTGVservices).ButforotherHSRservices,ithastakenlonger:theThalysservicebetweenParis,Brussels,CologneandAmsterdam,andtheTokaidoserviceinJapan,arebothreportedtohaveexperiencedramp-upofdemandoverfiveyears21.

21 RefertoAppendix 1Eforthedetailedevidence.


ManyEuropeanandJapaneseHSRserviceswere that,inthefirstyearafteropening,just40perdevelopedincorridorsthatalreadyhadhigh centofthepotentialdemandwouldbeachieved,levelsofraildemand,whichislikelytoshorten withthefullpotentialdemandbeingachievedintheramp-upperiod.Thiswouldnotbethecase thefifthyear.ThisprofilewasappliedtoeachnewalongtheeastcoastofAustralia;therefore,amore stageoftheHSRsysteminthecommercialandconservativefive-yearramp-upprofilefortheHSR economic appraisal.servicewasadopted(Table 2-15).Thisassumes

Table2-15 HSRramp-upassumption:theproportionofthepotentialdemandachievedineachofthefirstfiveyearsafteropening

Year

1 2 3 4 5

40% 55% 75% 90% 100%

2.6 Verification of the demand forecasting proceduresThisstudyhasplacedanemphasisonbenchmarkingtheHSRdemandforecastsagainstinternationalevidence.ThisisparticularlyimportantgiventheevidencethatsomepastdemandforecastsforotherHSRlineshaveprovedtobeoptimistic.ThissectionpresentsthebenchmarkingevidencecomparingtheHSRdemandforecasts22withinternationalexperience.

Forconsistencywiththeindependentevidence,unlikethefinalHSRforecastspresentedlaterinthischapter,theHSRforecastsusedforthesecomparisonsassumeSydneyAirportisnotcapacity-constrained.

2.6.1 Benchmarking the comparative air to HSR mode shares against international experience ConsiderableevidencehasbeenassembledintheinternationalliteratureontheimpactsofHSRoninter-cityairtravelinEurope,JapanandKorea23.HowthetotalcombinedHSR/airmarketissharedbetweenthetwomodeshasbeenthefocusofmuchresearchandcommentary.

InFigure 2-4,theinternationalstatisticsarerepresentedbythebluedots,whichshowtheHSRsharesofthecombinedair/HSRtravelmarketsonselectedroutes.ForHSRjourneytimeslessthantwohours,thisistypicallyover80percent,whereasifHSRjourneytimesexceed4.5hours,theHSRsharefallsbelow30percent.

Theinter-cityforecastsforthisstudyfor2035areshowninthefigureasredcircles.

Thestrongconsistencyoftheeastcoastforecastswithinternationalexperienceisevident.TheforecastsforBrisbane-Melbourneareatthehighendoftherangeforjourneysoverfivehours,whileSydney-Canberraislowerthantheexpectedrangeforjourneyslessthantwohours,butthisislargelyexplainedbytherelativelyhighproportionofpassengerstransferringtoconnectingflights,whichareassumedintheforecastsnottodivertto HSR.

22 ThefullHSRlinefromBrisbanetoMelbourneisassumedinthesecomparisons.23 FordetailsseeAppendix 1A.


Figure 2-4 HSR share of combined HSR/air travel market, comparing the final model forecast for 2035 with international evidence24

HSR

mod

e sh

are

(%)

HSR in-vehicle time (mins)

Sydney–Canberra

Canberra–Melbourne

Brisbane–Sydney

Sydney–Melbourne

Brisbane–Melbourne

10%

0%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

International evidence Model forecasts for 2035

2.6.2 Consistency of the forecast transfer from car to HSR with international experience In transport demand forecasting, estimates of the diversion from car to other transport modes such as HSR are subject to uncertainties, principally because there are many reasons why the private vehicle is chosen for journeys other than simply journey time and cost. Once the HSR service is introduced, car trips are forecast to divert to HSR as illustrated in Figure 2-5, where the blue dots refer to trips between the ten sectors in the east coast study area (shown earlier in Figure 2-1).

For each pair of sectors, the forecast car mode share in the east coast corridor in 2035 in the reference case (with HSR) is plotted against the car mode share in the base case (without HSR). For example, one dot is highlighted in green. This is the sector pair concerning the travel between Sydney and Canberra. Without HSR the car mode share is 66 per cent, and this reduces to 53 per cent with HSR, as shown.

24 For consistency with the international data, the east coast HSR forecasts in this figure assume that Sydney Airport is not over-capacity and encompass the full air demand on these routes by making an allowance for the air transfer trips not specifically modelled in this study.


Figure 2-5 Mode transfer from car to HSR, comparing the forecast for 2035 with international evidence

KTX Seoul–Busan

TGV Sud–Est

AVE Madrid–Seville

ICE Hamburg–Frankfurt

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Final model

With

HSR

sha

re

Base (no HSR) share

International evidence Sydney-Canberra

10%

0%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

It is evident that the car mode share in the 2035 base case varies greatly between the very long journeys, for which the car is rarely used, to the shorter journeys, which are largely made by car. The reduction in the car mode share varies between very little to about 20 percentage points. For Canberra to Sydney trips, the car mode share reduces by 13 percentage points.

The limited international evidence on the effect of HSR on the car share of travel is also included in the figure, and the particular HSR service is identified (represented by red circles). It is again clear that there is considerable consistency, providing support for the forecast of diversion from car provided by the east coast demand forecasting procedures.


Figure 2-6 Source of HSR travel demand in 2035 (trips)

2%

19%

51%

26%

2%

1%

Air Coach Car Rail Induced

2.6.3 Consistency of forecast induced HSR travel with international experience The various sources of HSR demand are presented in Figure 2-6. Trips diverted from air account for 51 per cent of HSR passengers; 26 per cent are forecast to divert from car travel. The next largest component is induced travel. Overall, 19 per cent of HSR trips are forecast to be induced; international experience25 suggests that the most common range of induced travel on HSR is 20 to 30 per cent, so these forecasts are on the conservative side of this range.

2.7 The forecasts for the preferred HSR systemThe final forecasts for the preferred HSR system (the reference case) are summarised in this section. Unlike the verification forecasts in section 2.6, these allow for the impacts of aviation congestion in Sydney.

The preferred HSR system would be implemented over a period of decades, as described in Chapter 6. By 2065, under the reference case assumptions, the HSR network is forecast to attract 83.6 million passenger trips per year, as illustrated in Figure 2-7.

25 Presented in Appendix 1E.


Figure 2-7 Reference case demand forecasts for HSR by market segment

0

20

10

40

30

60

50

80

100

70

120

90

110

2035 2040 2045 20602050 2055 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085

Ann

ual t

rips

(mill

ions

)

Operating costs – sundryHSR Revenue Operating costs – materials

Operating costs – labour

Sydney to Canberra operationalA

Sydney to Melbourne operationalB

Newcastle to Melbourne operationalC

Brisbane to Gold Coast & Newcastle to Melbourne operationalD

Network operationalE

A B C D E

Leisure – Short regional trips

Leisure – Intercity trips

Leisure – Long regional trips

Business – Short regional trips

Business – Intercity trips

Business – Long regional trips

Subsequent forecasts and analysis in this chapter are presented for the year 2065, when the preferred HSR system would be complete and fully ramped up.

All forecasts presented here assume the complete HSR network between Brisbane and Melbourne. Associated with this demand is an estimation of the benefit to users of the HSR system, adopted in the economic appraisal and presented in Chapter 8.

The HSR demand forecasts for 2065 are given in Table 2-16. HSR demand for business and non-business purposes is forecast to be 83.6 million passengers. The HSR passenger kilometres are those travelled on the train and are measured in terms of track length between stations. This is distinct from HSR person travel kilometres (in Table 2-20), which are based on zone-to-zone distances.


Table2-16 Traveldemandfor2065

HSR travel marketTotal travel market with HSR (‘000s trips)

HSR trips (‘000s) HSR passenger kilometres (billion)

388,690 83,600 53.1

Table 2-17showsthebreakdownbysectorofthe thoseinTable 2-13 becausetheinducedtravelforecasteastcoasttravelmarketin2065withafull leadstoahighertotaltraveldemandforecastwithHSRsysteminplace.Theforecastsarelargerthan HSR.

Table2-17 Totaltravelmarketmatrixfor2065withHSR(‘000tripsperyear)

Sect

ors

Bri

sban

e

Go

ld C

oas

t

Inte

rmed

iate

New

cast

le

Inte

rmed

iate

Syd

ney

Inte

rmed

iate

Can

ber

ra

Inte

rmed

iate

Mel

bo

urne

Tota

l

Brisbane X 52,740 7,620 1,100 1,010 16,220 2,210 2,260 1,970 10,450

Gold Coast X 7,720 800 810 7,390 1,380 580 1,350 4,800


Newcastle X 5,440 13,350 1,850 610 390 1,040

Intermediate X 25,840 500 760 X 1,000

Sydney X 45,270 13,690 5,300 26,950

Intermediate 4,350 4,880 350 3,060



Melbourne X

Total 388,690*


Theequivalentbreakdownofthe83.6million 44percentofthemarket.Overall,theHSRmodeHSRpassengersisgiveninTable 2-18.TheHSR shareisforecasttocapture22percentofthetravelshareofthetotaltraveldemandisgiveninTable market.Infrastructureneedismoredirectlyrelated2-19.TheHSRmodeshareoftheshorterjourneys totripkilometresand,whenmeasuredthisway,isforecasttobelow,typicallyfiveto15percent, HSRaccountsfor40percentoftheforecasttravelandtoreachitsmaximumfortheinter-city marketintheeastcoastcorridor.Table 2-20 showsjourneys(Sydney-Melbourne70percent,Sydney- thebreakdownbytheeastcoastmarketsectors;Brisbane67percent).Forotherlongjourneys, thedistancemeasureusedforallmodesisthecarHSRisforecasttoaccountfor25to traveldistance.


Table2-18 HSRtravelmarketmatrixfor2065(‘000tripsperyear)

Sect

ors

Bri

sban

e

Go

ld C

oas

t

Inte

rmed

iate

New

cast

le

Inte

rmed

iate

Syd

ney

Inte

rmed

iate

Can

ber

ra

Inte

rmed

iate

Mel

bo

urne

Tota

l

Brisbane X 2,210 1,650 750 600 10,860 1,240 1,130 730 2,490

Gold Coast X 900 520 580 3,830 610 190 440 340

Intermediate X 810 X 5,500 190 330 X 850

Newcastle X 170 1,760 220 250 150 330


Sydney X 2,690 5,190 2,290 18,760

Intermediate 80* 480 100 2,320

Canberra X 640 2,720


Melbourne X

Total 83,600**

*TripstoandfromWollongongaccessingHSRatSydneySouthorSouthernHighlandsstations.**Thetotaldoesnotexactlymatchthesumofthecellsduetorounding.

Table2-19 HSRmarketsharefor2065(%trips)

Sect

ors

Bri

sban

e

Go

ld C

oas

t

Inte

rmed

iate

New

cast

le

Inte

rmed

iate

Syd

ney

Inte

rmed

iate

Can

ber

ra

Inte

rmed

iate

Mel

bo

urne

Ave

rag

e

Brisbane X 4% 22% 68% 59% 67% 56% 50% 37% 24%

Gold Coast X 12% 65% 72% 52% 44% 34% 33% 7%

Intermediate X 15% X 40% 38% 46% X 53%

Newcastle X 3% 13% 12% 41% 39% 32%

Intermediate X 12% 4% 39% X 73%

Sydney X 6% 38% 43% 70%

Intermediate 2% 10% 28% 76%

Canberra X 25% 56%

Intermediate X 6%

Melbourne X

Average 22%


Table2-20 Distributionofeastcoasttravelmarketbymodeoftransportandpurposefor2065(persontravelkilometres)

Mode of transport Person travel Purpose kilometres

HSR Air Car Rail Coach (millions)

Inter-city

Business 63% 35% 2% 0% 0% 32,157

Non-business 40% 50% 10% 0% 0% 49,831

Long regional >250 km

Business 60% 17% 22% 0% 1% 8,283

Non-business* 41% 11% 44% 1% 2% 32,578

Short regional <250 km

Business 5% 1% 87% 6% 1% 2,510

Non-business 5% 0% 86% 6% 3% 25,654

Total person travel kilometres 59,928 40,912 46,316 2,156 1,702 151,014(millions)

Total person travel 40% 27% 31% 1% 1% 100%kilometres (%)

*Totaldoesnotaddupexactlyto100%duetorounding.Forthecalculationofpersontravelkilometresoneachmode,asinglecommonmeasureofzone-to-zonedistanceisused(unlikethemeasureofHSRpassengerkilometresinTable 2-16,whichusesthedistanceontherailline).

2.7.1 HSR demand forecasts analysedTheoverallcontributionstoHSRdemandbypurposeanddistancesegmentsaresummarisedinFigure 2-8.Businesstravelaccountsfor35percentofHSRdemand,withinter-citybusinesstravelaccountingformostofthis.Only14percentofHSRdemandcomprisesshortregionaltrips.


Figure 2-8 Source of HSR travel demand (trips) in 2065 by journey type

Inter-city non-business Inter-city business Long regional non-business

Long regional business Short regional non-business Short regional business

1%

13% 24%

25%

27%

9%

Note: Total does not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

The sources of HSR demand (the diversion from each mode and induced trips) are detailed in Figure 2-9 and Figure 2-10 by trip purpose and distance segment respectively. Overall, 55 per cent of HSR trips are diverted from air, 23 per cent are diverted from car and 19 per cent are induced.

The diversion from air is higher for business travel (66 per cent), while the diversion from car is higher for non-business travel (30 per cent). For inter-city travel, the largest component of HSR demand (75 per cent) is diverted from air. This would be expected, as air is the main current mode for such journeys. Similarly, the car is currently the main mode for short regional travel, and the diversion from this mode accounts for 72 per cent of short regional demand on HSR.

There is some diversion from rail only for short regional trips (ten per cent), and less induced travel for short regional trips. In the former case, this is because rail is only significant in the base market for short regional journeys and, in the latter case, it indicates that in general HSR does not provide a large improvement in accessibility over private car for the shorter journeys.

Within modelling limitations, the forecasts imply that by 2065, HSR could attract 40 per cent of inter-city air travel on the east coast and 60 per cent of regional air travel (primarily long regional). Specifically, on the major routes directly served by HSR (i.e. Sydney to Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra), over 50 per cent of the air travel market could be attracted to HSR. HSR would also attract a share of the significant growth in road traffic expected over the subsequent decades.


Figure 2-9 Source of HSR travel demand (trips) in 2065 by trip purpose

All

Business

Non-business


1%

2%

55%

19%

23%

<1%66%

24%

9%

49%

17%

30%

2%

2%

<1%


Figure 2-10 Source of HSR travel demand (trips) in 2065 by distance segment

Inter-city

Long regional

Short regional


4%

75%

21%

2%1%

46%

21%

30%

3%

6%

72%

10% 9%

<1%

<1%

Note: Inter-city total does not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.


26 Thistypeofanalysiscanonlybedoneindicatively.

HSRwouldofferimprovementsintransport Theforecastsassumethatsometravellerswouldserviceoverothermodesoftransport. haveapreferenceforHSRoverandabovetheFigure 2-11providesanindicationoftherelative level-of-servicebenefits.Thisbenefit,estimatedcompetitivefeaturesofHSRinrelationtothe fromtheSPsurvey,accountsforapproximatelydemandforecasts26. sevenpercentofHSRdemand.

OneoftheprincipalbenefitsofHSRoverair Thusthemajority(about75percent)ofthetravelisthatitprovidesdirectservicesbetween HSRdemandisestimatedtoarisefromitshighcitycentres,ratherthanstoppingtheserviceonthe speed,frequent,directfastrailservicesandcitymetropolitanperipheryforpassengerstocontinue centreaccessibilityduetothecentralstations.totheirfinaldestinationbyothermeans(similar Additionally,therearedemandcontributionstotheexperienceofairpassengersarrivingatan arisingfromtheprojectedfuturecongestionatairport).Thisbenefitisestimatedtoaccountfor SydneyAirport,HSR’slackofformalcheck-inandaround23percentofdemand. securitychecks,andtravellerpreferences.

ThesecondprincipalbenefitofHSRisitshigh Growthinthetotalmarketandchangesinbasespeedandthereforeshorterjourneytimes,which caseassumptionsovertimearealsosignificanttogetheraccountfor51percentofHSRdemand. influencesontheforecastHSRdemand.Thirty-onepercentisaccountedforbythehigh

Traveldemandgrowthratesintheeastcoastspeedof300kilometresperhour(thisbenefithascorridorareprojectedtobegreaterforthelongerbeenestimatedbytestingtheimpactofreducingdistancejourneys.From2009to2065,overalltheHSRservicespeedtoamuchslowerspeeddemandgrowthratesforinter-city,longregionalof100kilometresperhour),while20percentandshortregionaljourneysare2.2percentperisattributabletothislowerspeedstillbeingyear,1.6percentperyearand1.4percentperconsiderablyfasterforshorterdistancerailjourneysyear,respectively.thanconventionalraillinesbecauseofitslimited

stops.Italsoprovidesaverylargeimprovementinservicefrequencies,connectivityandrailtimesformediumandlongerjourneys.

Thedifferentialtimerequiredatanairport,relatedtocheck-inandsecurityrequirementsandthetimetakentotraversetheairport,isestimatedtoaccountforaroundtenpercentofHSRdemand.

TheavoidanceofcongestionatSydneyAirportinthebasecaseaccountsforabouteight percentofHSRdemand.


Figure 2-11 Source of HSR travel demand by HSR competitive characteristic

100 km/h trains

300km/h trains

HSR preference

CBD penetration

Lack of formal check-in/ security checksSydney airport congestion

20%

31%

7%

8%

10%

23%

Note: Total does not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

The effect of market trends on HSR demand can be illustrated by considering a forecast for the year 2009, assuming the preferred HSR system was complete. Applied to 2009 conditions, the HSR system is forecast to attract 27 million passengers per year. The forecast of HSR patronage is 83.6 million passengers in 2065, an implied growth rate of two per cent per year over the 2009 patronage estimate, in part reflecting the growth of the longer distance travel market which is served by HSR.

Figure 2-12 shows the demand forecasts at HSR stations along the route (i.e. the number of passengers boarding and alighting at each station) in 2065. Sydney’s Central station, at the heart of the east coast network, would cater for the most passengers, followed by stations at Melbourne, Brisbane and Canberra. Passengers transferring between the north and south sections of the HSR

line at Central station in Sydney would account for about 21 per cent of all HSR passengers at Central27. The peripheral stations to the three major cities would also attract a proportion of the HSR demand; primarily city residents (rather than visitors) who would access the stations by taxi, private car or rail.

Of the regional stations, Gold Coast and Newcastle would attract significant numbers of passengers. Almost 50 per cent of HSR passengers would either board or alight at the regional stations28, split broadly equally between residents of the regional areas and city residents travelling to the regional areas.

27 These are included in the Sydney boarding and alighting station totals, each interchange counting as two trips: one alighting on arrival at the station and one boarding on departure. Interchanging passengers therefore account for around 21 per cent of the passenger total, but around 34 per cent of boardings and alightings at Sydney.

28 The regional stations are all stations other than the four city centre stations and the four city peripheral stations: Melbourne, Melbourne North, Canberra, Sydney South, Sydney, Sydney North, Brisbane South and Brisbane.


Figure 2-12 HSR demand by station in 2065 (boardings and alightings)

Stat

ion

boar

ding

s / a

light

ings

(mill

ions

)

StationM

elbo

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2065

The HSR line loadings for 2065 are given in Figure 2-13. Between each adjacent pair of stations there are multiple HSR services. The figure shows the total number of passengers on all services, with the highest loadings on the line south of Sydney to Melbourne.


Figure 2-13 HSR line loadings in 2065

Two-

way

pas

seng

er lo

ads

(mill

ions

per

ann

um)

Mel

bour

ne N

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to M

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ey S

outh

to S

outh

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Sydn

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Syd

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h

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ydne

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Syd

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th

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Port

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Tar

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arbo

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Por

t Mac

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offs

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Inter-capital express services

Inter-capital regional services

2.8 Sensitivity testingIn forecasting the impacts of a new mode of transport over 50 years in the future, the inherent uncertainties must be recognised (and indeed are evident in the experience of other HSR forecasts). The risks and uncertainties associated with the HSR demand forecasts have therefore been evaluated in a risk analysis and a series of sensitivity tests.

2.8.1 Overall risk for the commercial appraisalLong-term forecasts for new transport projects as far ahead as 2065 are subject to uncertainty in terms of future scenario characteristics and of the proportion of the travel markets they would win. A review of these risks in relation to HSR concluded that the key uncertainties related to:• The description of the future scenarios:

population growth, GSP per capita growth and alternative air fare scenarios29.

29 The range of air fares used in these tests was that used in the Joint Study. In these tests, it is assumed that the HSR fare strategy would be to maintain its competitive position against air fares. Consequently, the changes in air fares are assumed to be matched by commensurate changes in HSR fares.


• Thedemandforecasts:uncertaintiesintheestimatesofcurrenttraveldemands,theprojectionsofgrowth,andtheforecastsofthetraveldemandsharethatwouldbeattractedto HSR.

Thereareotherrisks;forexample,thepotentialfurtherinvestmentinairportcapacityandthelevelofHSRfares,whichrelatetogovernmentpolicyandHSRpricingpoliciesandarenotencompassedinthisoverallanalysisbutwhichhavebeenthesubjectofindividualsensitivitytests.

Thelevelsofuncertaintyabouttheseriskfactorswerecombinedtoprovideanoverallrangeofuncertaintyaroundthe2065demandriskduetothesespecificfactors,asshowninTable 2-21.

Thetestssuggestedthatthereisa95percentchancethatactualHSRdemandin2065willbebetween22percentlessthantheforecastand32percentgreaterthantheforecast.Thisisknownasthe‘95percentconfidencerange’.Theasymmetryofthisrangereflectstheconservativeassumptionsthathavebeenmadeinthereferencecase,asillustratedinFigure 2-14.

Table2-21 Overallrangeofuncertaintyaroundthe2065HSRdemandforecasts(relativetothereferenceforecast)

Risk profile

Most likely* 95% confidence range**

+3% -22%/+32%*Thevariationfromthebaseforecastduetoanasymmetricriskdistribution.**Therangewithinwhichthereisa95percentchancethattheoutcomewilllie.

Figure2-14 OveralldistributionofHSRdemandfor2065

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Variation of 2065 HSR patronage from reference case

Like

lihoo

d

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%


2.1.4 Scenarios and sensitivity testsInadditiontotheoverallriskanalysis,thelowandhighgrowthscenariosweretestedandarangeofindividualsensitivitytestswereruntoillustratespecificuncertainties.

The‘lowcase’representedacombinationofthelowpopulationandloweconomicgrowthscenarios,whilethe‘highcase’combinedthehighpopulationandhigheconomicgrowthscenarios30.

Thesensitivitytestswereasfollows:• AhighHSRfaresscenario(a30percent

higherfare31anda50percenthigherfarethanassumedinthereferencecase).

• AdditionalaviationcapacitythatassumesthereisnounmetaviationdemandintheSydney region.

• AcombinedtestwithadditionalaviationcapacityandHSRfares+30%.

• Testsinvolvingvariationstothedemandforecastingprocedures:– HSRASCssettozero(thesearethe

preferencesforHSRrelativetoairforinter-cityandlongregionaltrips,andrelativetorailforshortregionaltrips,overandabovethemeasurableimprovementsinlevelof service).

– Anaccess/egressweightingof1.0(inthereferenceforecastsaweightingof1.4isused).

– Increasedscalingparametersforregionaltrips.Thehigherthescalingparameters,thegreaterthesensitivityoftheHSRforecaststodifferencesinthecostsoftravelforHSRandcompetingmodes.

• Afixedvalueoftimeafter2035(inthereferenceforecaststhevaluesoftimeincreasewithincome).

• Alowdemandcombinedscenarioinwhichthelowgrowth,additionalaviationcapacityand50percenthigherHSRfareyieldscenarioswerecombined.

AsshowninFigure 2-15,thesensitivitytestsproducedarangeofdemandforecastsin2065froma45percentreductionto46millionpassengers,toa33percentincreaseto111millionpassengers,fromthereferencecaseof83.6millionpassengers.

TheforecastsshowninFigure 2-15weremostsensitivetothelowandhighscenariosofpopulationandeconomicgrowth.TheHSRfaresincreasesof+30percentand+50percentalsoimpactedsignificantlyonHSRdemand.

ThelowcombinedscenariolinkinglowpopulationandeconomicgrowthwithgreateraviationcapacityandhigherHSRfaresthereforeresultedinthelargestdeclineinHSRdemand,of45percent.

Theeffectsofthemodelsensitivitytestswererelativelyminor,withonlytheremovaloftheHSRASCshavingasignificantimpactondemand(adeclineofsevenpercent).

IncreasingthescalingparametersrequiredacompensatingadjustmenttotheASCstoreproducethemodesharesobservedin2009.TheneteffectwasasmallincreaseinforecastHSRdemand.

TheimpactonuserbenefitsofthedemandchangesarisingfromthesensitivitytestsisreportedinChapter 8.

30 Inthefinancialriskanalysis,thepopulationandeconomicgrowthuncertaintieswereassumedtobeuncorrelated.31 ThisisalargerfarevariationthanthatusedintheJointStudyandthefinancialriskanalysis.


Figure 2-15 Impacts of the sensitivity tests on HSR demand for 2065Lo

w c

ase

Hig

h ca

se

HSR

fare

s +3

0%

HSR

fare

s +5

0%

Add

itIon

al

avia

tion

capa

city

Com

bine

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iatio

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w c

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and

HSR

fare

s +5

0%

Com

bine

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paci

ty a

nd

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fare

s +3

0%

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ASC

s se

t to

zero

Acc

ess/

egre

ss

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eter

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it

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3020100

-10-20-30-40-50-60

-11%

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-8%

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-20%

-3%

-45%

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-2%

Cha

nge

in 2

065

fore

cast

dem

and

(%)

33%

2.9 ConclusionThe demand forecasting provides the following picture of the likely impact of this new mode of travel on the east coast market:• A fully functional HSR network, under the

reference case assumptions, is forecast to attract 83.6 million passenger trips by 2065.

• Alternative assumptions produce forecasts of between 46 million and 111 million passenger trips.

• Sydney-Melbourne is the largest market segment for HSR, with 18.8 million passenger trips in 2065.

• The next largest is Brisbane-Sydney, with 10.9 million passenger trips, followed by Sydney-Canberra with 5.2 million passenger trips.

• About half of the HSR demand would be diverted from air travel and about a quarter from car. Most of the rest would be new trips.

The demand forecasting has addressed the five key questions raised at the beginning of this chapter:

What are the main markets in the east coast corridor that HSR could potentially serve?The total travel market in the study corridor amounted to 152 million trips of more than 50 kilometres in 2009. Of these, there were just over 18 million inter-city trips, of which almost 40 per cent were for business and most (85 per cent) were made by air. There were another 24 million trips of more than 250 kilometres (long regional trips), of which 17 per cent were for business and the majority (72 per cent) were made by car. The remaining shorter distance trips (between 50 and 250 kilometres) accounted for most of the 2009 travel market (109 million trips).


The2065HSRpatronageforecastis83.6millionpassengers,ofwhich:• 18.8millionpassengersperyeartravelbetween

SydneyandMelbourne(22percentoftotalforecastHSRdemand).

• 10.9millionpassengersperyeartravelbetweenBrisbaneandSydneyCBDandperipheralstations(13percentoftotalforecastHSR demand).

• 5.2millionpassengersperyeartravelbetweenSydneyCBDandperipheralstationsandCanberra(sixpercentofforecastHSR demand).

What is the size of these markets and how would they be split between the alternative transport modes (car, rail, coach and air)?In2009,thecarwasusedfor78percentofthejourneys,airtravelaccountedfor13percent,railforsixpercentandcoachforjustthreepercent.Airtravelwasmostimportantfortheinter-cityandverylongregionaltrips,whilerailservedspecificcorridors,mainlylocaltothemajormetropolitanareas.

Iftravelismeasuredintermsofpassengerkilometres,inter-cityandlongregionaltravelin2009accountedformorethan70percentofpassengerkilometres.Airandcartravelcarriedbroadlyequalproportionsofthetravel,accountingfor95percentoftotalpassengerkilometres travelled.

Theseestimatesofthesizeofthemodaltravelmarketswereverifiedagainstindependentdata,includingspeciallycollectedroadtrafficsurveys.

How would the travel markets grow in the future?Thistravelmarketintheeastcoastcorridorisexpectedtoincreasesubstantiallyinfuture:byover60percentby2035,by100percentby2050andbymorethan130percentby2065.

Themethodologyusedforthesetravelgrowthprojectionswasverifiedagainsthistoricgrowthdataandinformedbyaspecialanalysisofthegrowthratesforinter-urbancartraffic.

What would be the potential for diversion from current transport modes to HSR?WithoutHSR,over90percentofthesejourneyswouldhavetobecateredforbyairandprivatecar,subjecttothetransportcapacitybeingavailable.ConstructinganHSRsystemwouldprovideadditionalcapacityinthecorridor,andwouldprovideanew,alternativemodeoftransportthattheevidencesuggestswouldattractasignificantmarketshare.

Usingproventechnology,HSRcoulddelivercitycentretocitycentrejourneytimesoflessthanthreehoursbetweenBrisbaneandSydney,andbetweenSydneyandMelbourne.Asaresult,nearly22 percentoftripsandnearly40percentofpassengerkilometresinthecorridorin2065wereforecasttobeattractedtoHSR.Theprovisionofdirectconnectionsbetweenthecitycentresisasignificantcomponentoftheattractivenessofsuchservices,andthismaybecomeevenmorehighlyvaluedastravelcongestionincitiescontinuestoincreaseinthecomingdecades.

TogetherwithothermarketattributesoftheHSRservice,thesejourneytimeswouldallowittocompeteeffectivelywithairtravel.

By2065,HSRcouldattract40percentofinter-cityairtravelontheeastcoastand60percentofregionalairtravel(primarilylongregional).Onthethreemainsectors,Sydney-Melbourne,Sydney-BrisbaneandSydney-Canberra,HSRcouldattractmorethan50percentoftheairtravelmarket.

RegionaldemandwouldrepresentasignificantcomponentoftotalHSRdemand(about50percentoftrips),sinceformanyregionalareastheprivatecarcurrentlyrepresentstheonlyrealistictransportoptionforaccessinglargepartsofthecorridor.


How sensitive would the level of that diversion be to HSR performance and to the alternative future scenarios?TheprovisionofHSRasanewtraveloptiontocapitalcitiesandregionalcentresalongtheeastcoastwouldalsoleadtopeoplechoosingtomakemorejourneysinthecorridortotakeadvantageoftheimprovedtransportaccessibilityprovidedbytheHSRservices.Achievementoftheaverageoperatingspeedof300kilometresperhourandcorrespondingjourneytimesaccountsfor51percentoftheforecastHSRdemand.

TheforecastdiversiontoHSRandtheconsequentinducedtravelwerevalidatedagainsttheindependentevidenceoftheimpactsofHSRinothercountries.Additionally,alternativegrowthscenariosweretestedwithlowgrowthgenerating22percentless,andhighgrowth33percentmore,HSRdemandwhencomparedtothereference case.

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