1P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 Post-2012 climate policy :...

1P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004

Post-2012 climate policy :the participation challenge

from the « Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways in the UN-FCCC process up to 2025 » study

GRP, LEPII-EPE coord. for DG-ENV

http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/studies.htm


1. World Reduction Pathways

2. International Climate Architectures

3. The Participation Challenge

4. Consistent Strategies


GRP: the need for further action World greenhouse gas emissions, if unconstrained,

will lead to high levels of atmospheric concentrations

Over the second half of the next century, the Reference Projection results in emissions of the 6 “Kyoto basket” gases (i.e. CO2 , CH4 , N2O, HFC, PFC

and SF6) that are equivalent to 70-75 Gt of CO2

(GtCO2e) each year

This represents a doubling, from world current 6 GHGs emissions, i.e. 37 GtCO2e/yr in 2000

These emission levels would induce concentration levels of more than 900 ppmv CO2e in 2100


GRP: goals and corresponding scenarios The EU goal of limiting average temperature

increase to “less than plus 2°C, compared to pre-industrial level” can be translated into concentration and emission profiles …

In GRP “reduction profiles” have thus been defined, for the set of 6 Kyoto gases:

- S550e for a stabilisation at 550 ppmv CO2 eq. (450 ppmv CO2 only); it will meet the “less than plus 2°C from pre-industrial” target for a low to median value of the Climate Sensitivity Factor

- S650e for a stabilisation at 650 ppmv CO2 eq. (550 ppmv CO2 only); it will meet the target only if the Climate Sensitivity is low


GRP: the S550e and S650e global profiles

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns (

GtC

O2-e

q)

Baseline

S550e

S650e

Emissions have to peak before 2020 in S550e and before 2030 in S650e

2050 emissions should correspond to “1990 emissions minus 15%” in S550e or to “1990 emissions plus 15 %” in S650e

IMAGE 2.2


GRP: the possible architectures An international architecture without emission targets

(e.g. commitment on R&D spending) is conceivable, but would probably miss any of the identified profiles

Emission reduction targets can be defined either:

- through a global emission profile (top-down)

- or individual targets for the different parties (bottom-up)

The form and timing for participation can be identical for all Parties or with differing targets or time-horizons

The type of commitment can be defined in absolute or dynamic terms (intensity targets)

Different equity principles can be used: egalitarian, acquired rights, responsibility, capability


GRP: profiles and architectures

While many options for the design of a climate architecture can be explored …

the commitments for the different regions basically depend on:

- the choice of the long term emission profile

- decisions made on the type of participation for non-Annex I countries

This is why the diversity in options can be subsumed though the use of a limited number of generic models


GRP: the Multi-Stage schemes Multi-Stage is an “increasing participation” scheme,

with Parties progressively entering into different stages:

- in Stage 1 Parties have no “binding” quantitative commitment (case for the Least Developed Countries)

- in Stage 2 they have to comply to dynamic “intensity targets” (case for the Emerging Economies)

- in Stage 3 they comply to absolute emission targets, as resulting from the global profile (Annex 1 countries)

In GRP, three Multi-Stage schemes have been defined, using a Capacity-Responsibility index (cf. Art. 3.1. of UN-FCCC)


2050 endowments: some hard accounting facts From the GRP profiles and MS endowment

schemes, one can retain the following useful orders of magnitude on outcomes and requirements :

Annex I Non Annex I

S650e + 2.5°C from pre-ind. + 1.9 °C from today / Factor 2

x 2 (LAM, MET, SEEA)

x 5 (AFR, SOA = baseline)

S550e +1.6 °C from pre-ind. + 1.0 °C from today / Factor 4

x 1 (LAM, MET, SEEA)

x 3 (AFR, SOA)

Temp. increase (median IPCC

2001 CSF)

2050 endowmts. compared to 1990 emiss.

Emission profile


GRP: Conclusions on profiles and endowments

The GRP study is only a first step, but shows that:

- meeting the EU climate objective will require a peak in world emissions within a few decades

- the taking into account of a global profile is probably a condition for attaining this target

- the possible architectures are many, but simple schemes can be designed, with reasonable properties in terms of international equity

For the Annex I countries the S650e profile would imply a reduction in endowments by a factor of 2 in 2050 (relative to 1990); S550e would require a Factor 4 reduction


S550e

S750e

S650e

Adaptation costs + residual damages

Mitigation costs

GRP: Motivations for participation

For any Party to an international climate agreement, the first motivation for participation should be the safeguard of climate as a Global Public Good …

In order to avoid the adverse consequences of uncontrolled climate change, in particular for the most vulnerable parts of the world


GRP: Costs and potential gains from global cap and international trading systems The ratio of direct (sectoral) abatement costs to GDP

provides a good indication of the “rate of effort” for each region

In most Annex I regions and in 2025, this rate of effort represents 0.5 to 1% of GDP in S550e and 0.1 to 0.2% of GDP in S650e

Due to their endowments, low-income regions receive a net benefit from emission trading …

while intermediate income or high per capita emission developing regions incur net costs


GRP S650e effort rates up to 2025:

sectoral cost / GDP

Discounted Effort Rate (2011 - 2025)

-0,80%

-0,60%

-0,40%

-0,20%

0,00%

0,20%

0,40%

Enla

rged

EU

* US

A

Can

ada

CIS

+O

ther

Oce

ania

Jap

an

(Cost/GDP)

PCC2050

PCC2100

MS1

MS2

MS3


-0,80%

-0,60%

-0,40%

-0,20%

0,00%

0,20%

0,40%

Lat

in A

m

Afr

ica

ME

& T

urk

ey

Ind

ia

Res

t So

uth

Asi

a

Ch

ina

Res

t SE

& E

Asi

a

(Cost/GDP)

PCC2050

PCC2100

M S1

M S2

M S3

Source: POLES model



-2,00%

-1,50%

-1,00%

-0,50%

0,00%

0,50%

1,00%

1,50%

Lat

in A

m

Afr

ica

ME

& T

urk

ey

Ind

ia

Res

t S

ou

th A

sia

Ch

ina

Res

t S

E &

E A

sia

(Cost/GDP)PCC2050

PCC2100

MS1

MS2

MS3


-2,00%

-1,50%

-1,00%

-0,50%

0,00%

0,50%

1,00%

1,50%

En

larg

edE

U* US

A

Can

ada

CIS

+O

ther

Oce

ania

Jap

an

(Cost/GDP)

PCC2050

PCC2100

MS1

MS2

MS3

GRP S550e effort rates up to 2025:

sectoral cost / GDP

Source: POLES model


GRP: Co-benefits of climate policies,

the case of NOx Climate policies induce significant changes from baseline for sulphur and nitrogen oxydes emissions

The positive impacts are particularly noticeable for the “low-income but rapidly growing” regions in Asia

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Can

/US

A

Enl

arge

d E

U

FSU

Oc

Japa

n

Latin

Am

eric

a

Afr

ica

ME

& T

urke

y

Sou

th A

sia

SE

& E

Asi

a

NO

x em

issi

on

(kg

.N/k

m2)

Baseline

S650e

S550e

Source: IMAGE-TIMER model


Elements of a consistent strategy - 1 Further action is needed, global targets and

emission trading systems will be keystones for collective action

The EU climate target will imply strong emission reduction targets (Factor 2 to 4 reductions for 2050 in Annex I countries)

The costs of these policies should neither be exaggerated nor minimized, as they will imply important changes in societies and major technological innovations


Elements of a consistent strategy - 2 Mastering the low- or no-carbon energy

technologies will be the key to sustainability and economic competitiveness in the XXIst century, but it will have costs in the short term

The EU has to set ambitious goals, but cannot do it alone. This implies to:

- Demonstrate its capability to implement effective domestic climate policies

- Identify international actions in the short term that aim at- and are consistent with- a future global regime


Elements of a consistent strategy - 3 To ease the participation challenge, a solution

to be explored might be the one of “proportionate targets” :

- The EU sets an ultimate climate policy goal, with a range of targets for its own commitment

- The EU’s binding target is then defined inside this range, proportionally to the commitments of the other key Parties

This may make international responsibilities clearer and to some extent deter free-riding …

1P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 Post-2012 climate policy :...

Documents

Transcript of 1P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE Post 2012 Climate Policy Brussels November 22, 2004 Post-2012 climate policy :...