1874_1187_LLA110107.pdf
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24 LINCOLN INSTITUTE OF LAND POLICY • Land Line s • JANUARY 2011 New Lincoln Institute Policy Focus Report T he prevailing urban planning paradigm now guiding the expan- sion of cities and metropolitan areas is premised on the containment of urban sprawl, but containment is not ap- propriate in rapidly urbanizing countries where most growth in now taking place. Shlomo Angel and his colleagues have an- alyzed the quantitativ e dimensions of past, present, and future urban land cover and propose a different paradigm—the mak- ing room paradigm—as a more realistic strategy for cities and metropolitan regions that need to prepare for their inevitable expansion. This policy focus report seeks to enrich understanding of the context in w hich preparations for urban expansion must take place in cities around the world using empirical data on key parameters that characterize their spatial structure and its changes over time. Carefully selected met- rics measured in four new data sets with ArcGIS software now allo w us to construct a comprehensive and consistent global and historical perspective on urban expansion. These data sets are: 1. A global sample of 120 cities with 100,000 people or more in 1990 and 2000; 2. A set of 20 U. S. cities, 1910–2000; 3. A representativ e sample of 30 global cities, 1800–2000, from the set of 120 cities; and 4. A universe of 3,646 cities that had 100,000 people or more in 2000. The report examines three discrete attri- butes of urban spatial structur e and their change over time: density, the average popu- lation density of the built-up ar ea; frag- mentation, the amount of open space in and around cities that is fragmented by their built-up areas; and urban land cover, the total land area occupied by cities. Some of the research findings ar e: • on average , densities in developing countries are double those in Europe and Japan, and densities in Europe and Japan are doub le those of the United States, Canada, and Australia; Making Room for a Planet of Cities Making Room for a Planet of Cities Shlomo Angel with Jason Parent, Daniel L. Civco, and Alejandro M. Blei 2011 / 72 pages / Paper / $15.00 ISBN 978-1-55844 -212-2 Policy Focus Report / Code PF027 Ordering Information Contact Lincoln Institute at www.lincolninst.edu • average built-up area densities declined by 2 percent per annum between 1990 and 2000 and have been in per- sistent decline for a century or more; • cities have fragmented open spaces in and around them that are equivalent in size to their built-up areas; • at present rates, the world’s urban population is expected to double in 43 years while urban land cover will double in only 19 years; and • the urban population of the develop- ing countries is expected to double between 2000 and 2030 while the built-up ar ea of their cities can be expected to triple. These projections of urban expansion in all regions, especially in developing coun- tries, should give pause to advoca tes of global urban containment. The proposed making room paradigm is grounded in the conviction that we need to prepare for the sustainable growth and ex pansion of cities in rapidly urbanizing countries rather than seek to constrict and contain them. This alternative paradigm consists of four key components: (1) realistic pr ojections of urban land needs; (2) generous metropoli- tan limits; (3) selective pr otection of open space; and (4) an arterial grid of roads. This report provides both the concep- tual framework and, for the first time, the basic empirical data and quantitative di- mensions of past, present, and fut ure urban expansion in cities around the world that are necessary for making minimal prepa- rations for future growth. At the very least, the report lays the foundation for fruitful discussion of the fate of our cities and our planet as we seek to identify and employ appropriat e strategies for managing urban expansion at sustainable densities. ◗ ABOUT THE AUTHORS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Shlomo Angel is a visiting fellow at the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy . He is also adjunct professor of urban planning at the Robert F . W agner Graduat e School of Public Service of New Y ork University, and a lecturer in public and international affairs at the Woodr ow Wilson School of Princeton University. Contact: solly.angel@ gmail.com Jason Parent is a doctoral candidate and GIS specialist at the Center for Land Use Education and Research (CLEAR) in the Department of Natural Resour ces and the Envir onment of the Univers ity of Connec- ticut. Contact: Jason.pa [email protected] Daniel L. Civco is professor of geomat- ics and director of the Center for Land Use Education and Researc h (CLEAR) in the Department of Natural Resour ces and the Envir onment of the Univer sity of Con- necticut. Contact: daniel.civco@uc onn.edu Alejandro M. Blei is a doctoral candi- date at the Department of Urban Plan- ning and Pol icy of the Univers ity of Illinoi s at Chicago and a transportation analyst at Pace Suburban Bus, a transit agency serv- ing metropolitan Chicago. Contact: alex.m. blei @gmail.com
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Transcript of 1874_1187_LLA110107.pdf
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24LincoLn institute of Land PoLicyLand LinesJ a n u a r y 2 0 1 1 J a n u a r y 2 0 1 1 Land Lines LincoLn institute of Land PoLicy25
new Lincoln institute Policy focus report
the prevailing urban planningparadigmnowguidingtheexpan-sion of cities and metropolitanareas is premisedon the containment of urbansprawl,butcontainmentisnotap-propriate in rapidly urbanizing countrieswheremost growth in now taking place.shlomoangelandhiscolleagueshavean-alyzedthequantitativedimensionsof past,present,andfutureurbanlandcoverandpropose a different paradigmthemak-ing room paradigmas a more realisticstrategyforcitiesandmetropolitanregionsthat need to prepare for their inevitableexpansion. thispolicyfocusreportseekstoenrichunderstanding of the context in whichpreparations for urban expansion musttakeplaceincitiesaroundtheworldusingempirical data on key parameters thatcharacterizetheirspatialstructureanditschangesovertime.Carefullyselectedmet-ricsmeasured in fournewdata setswitharcgIssoftwarenowallowustoconstructacomprehensiveandconsistentglobalandhistoricalperspectiveonurbanexpansion.thesedatasetsare:1. aglobalsampleof 120citieswith
100,000peopleormorein1990and2000;
2. asetof 20u.s.cities,19102000;3. arepresentativesampleof 30global
cities,18002000,fromthesetof 120cities;and
4. auniverseof 3,646citiesthathad100,000peopleormorein2000.
the report examines threediscrete attri-butesof urbanspatialstructureandtheirchangeovertime:density,theaveragepopu-lation density of the built-up area; frag-mentation, the amount of open space inand around cities that is fragmented bytheirbuilt-upareas;andurbanlandcover,the total land area occupied by cities.someof theresearchfindingsare: onaverage,densitiesindeveloping
countriesaredoublethoseineuropeandJapan,anddensitiesineuropeandJapanaredoublethoseof theunitedstates,Canada,andaustralia;
making room for a Planet of cities
making room for a Planet of citiesShlomo angel with Jason Parent, Daniel L. Civco, and alejandro M. Blei 2011 / 72 pages / Paper / $15.00ISBn 978-1-55844-212-2Policy Focus report / Code PF027
ordering informationContact Lincoln Institute atwww.lincolninst.edu
averagebuilt-upareadensitiesdeclinedby2percentperannumbetween1990and2000andhavebeeninper-sistentdeclineforacenturyormore;
citieshavefragmentedopenspacesinandaroundthemthatareequivalentinsizetotheirbuilt-upareas;
atpresentrates,theworldsurbanpopulationisexpectedtodoublein43yearswhileurbanlandcoverwilldoubleinonly19years;and
theurbanpopulationof thedevelop-ingcountriesisexpectedtodoublebetween2000and2030whilethebuilt-upareaof theircitiescanbeexpectedtotriple.
theseprojectionsof urban expansion inallregions,especiallyindevelopingcoun-tries, should give pause to advocates of globalurbancontainment.theproposedmakingroomparadigmisgroundedintheconvictionthatweneedtoprepareforthesustainablegrowthandexpansionof citiesin rapidly urbanizing countries ratherthan seek to constrict and contain them.
thisalternativeparadigmconsistsof fourkeycomponents:(1)realisticprojectionsof urbanlandneeds;(2)generousmetropoli-tanlimits;(3)selectiveprotectionof openspace;and(4)anarterialgridof roads. thisreportprovidesboththeconcep-tualframeworkand,forthefirsttime,thebasic empirical data and quantitative di-mensionsof past,present,andfutureurbanexpansionincitiesaroundtheworldthatarenecessaryformakingminimalprepa-rationsforfuturegrowth.attheveryleast,thereport lays the foundation for fruitfuldiscussionof thefateof ourcitiesandourplanetaswe seek to identifyandemployappropriatestrategiesformanagingurbanexpansionatsustainabledensities.
a b o u t t h e a u t h o r s. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Shlomo angel isavisitingfellowattheLincolnInstituteof LandPolicy.Heisalsoadjunctprofessorof urbanplanningattherobert F. Wagner graduate school of Public service of new york university,andalecturerinpublicandinternationalaffairsat theWoodrowWilsonschoolof Princetonuniversity.Contact:[email protected]
Jason ParentisadoctoralcandidateandgIsspecialistattheCenterforLanduseeducationandresearch(CLear)intheDepartmentof naturalresourcesandtheenvironmentof theuniversityof Connec-ticut.Contact:[email protected]
Daniel L. Civcoisprofessorof geomat-ics and director of the Center for Landuseeducationandresearch(CLear)intheDepartmentof naturalresourcesandtheenvironmentof theuniversityof Con-necticut.Contact:[email protected]
alejandro M. Blei isadoctoralcandi-date at the Department of urban Plan-ningandPolicyof theuniversityof IllinoisatChicagoandatransportationanalystatPacesuburbanBus,atransitagencyserv-ingmetropolitanChicago.Contact:[email protected]
