18 June 2021 CLIMATE FROM EARTH AND SPACE – ESA Climate ...
Transcript of 18 June 2021 CLIMATE FROM EARTH AND SPACE – ESA Climate ...
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CLIMATE FROM EARTH AND SPACE – ESA
Climate from Space – communicating beyond science and policy
18 June 2021
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AGENDA• Tracking climate change: ESA’s long-term records• Climate change from space: research results• New ESA missions• Tools for new audiences
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Carbon dioxide – then and now
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
CO2
ppm
Atmospheric CO2 concentration
803,719 BCE 2020600,00 BCE 400,00 BCE 200,00 BCE
§ Highest for over 800,000 years
§ Unprecedented emissions in 20th
century
§ CO2 and CH4 are at their highest levels on record
Bereiter et al, GRL, 2015
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Taking the Pulse of our Planet
ESA’s Vision for EO
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Satellites25 under development
15 in operation
ESA-Developed Earth Observation Missions
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Tracking climate change: ‘Essential Climate Variables’
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• Established 2010• €160M • 450 researchers• 13 now operational
(Copernicus)
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CARBON from space • In 2020, despite
lockdown, CO2 hit 413 ppm
• CO2 has a clear upward trend 0.6% per year
• Methane is also up 0.4% per year
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SEA ICE shrinking is widespread
[Sea_Ice_CCI_FM.mp4]
• 2020 was 2nd lowest minima on record• Long term decline of 78,000 km2 per
year• Arctic amplification as darker ocean is
exposed
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ARCTIC ICE LOSS DIRECTLY FOLLOWS ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS
• For every ton of CO2 emitted, 3m2 of sea ice is lost.
• Ice-free Arctic expected by 2050
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GLOBAL WARMING SEEN FROM SPACEGlobal Sea Surface Temp anomaly trends 1981-2018 relative to 1982-2010 period.
Degrees C change per decade Bulgin et al, Sci Rep, 2020
• SST drives many weather and climate processes
• Trends of 0.11℃ per decade excluding perennial ice
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OCEAN SALINITY from space• Saline areas
getting saltier• Freshwater areas
getting fresher• Intensification of
the hydrological cycle
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SEA LEVEL RISE IS ACCELERATING
• Global mean sea level is rising 3.3mm per year and accelerating
• Copernicus Sentinel-6 is extending the record with unprecedented resolution
• Sea level rise is different everywhere & made worse by sinking coastlines
• Tacking subsidence more effective than mitigation for saving lives up to 2050
Mimura, N., NCC. (2021).
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ANTARCTIC AND GREENLAND ICE SHEETSEl
evat
ion
chan
ge (m
/yr)
-1
+1
Ocean tem
perature (°C)-2 +1
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#FIMC2021
SEA LEVEL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM ICE SHEETS
IMBIE, Nature, 2019&2020, Slater et al, NCC, 2020
ICE SHEETS CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISE
[IMBIE video]
• Consolidated estimates of ice sheet loss
• Greenland losing ice seven times faster then 1990s
• Losses on track for IPCC worst-case climate warming scenario
• Puts 44-66 million people at risk of annual coastal flooding by 2100
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RECENT ACCELERATION IN GLACIER RETREAT
Hugonnet et al, Nature, 2021
The Earth’s glaciers have lost as much ice as both ice sheets combined over two decades
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Kaab et al, The Cryosphere, 2021
SUDDEN GLACIER FLOWS akin to avalanches - more common than thought
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PERMAFROST THAW IN THE ARCTIC
Tem
pera
ture
at d
epth
℃
Credit: G Hugelius
Permafrost CCI[Permafrost video]
Permafrost CCI, Obu et al,. 2019 via the CEDA archive
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LAKE HEATWAVES and stratification
Woolway et al., Nature, 2021
• Lakes are sensitive to climatic change.• Thermal habitat moving faster than ability of
species to disperse: likely worse negative consequences than land or ocean ecosystems
Woolway et al, Nat Comms, 2021 Woolway and Maberly, NCC, 2020
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TRACKING Fires• The modelling community needs a global fire time series that exceeds 30 years.• More than 4 million km2 burnt globally per year (area of India+Pakistan).• Human development is a main factor (more than weather) in driving global interannual variability in burnt area.• African fire emissions 80% higher than previously thought, doubling emissions estimates.
Lizundia-Loiola et al., Rem. Sens., 2020; Chuvieco et al, Sci of the Total Environ. 2021; Ramo et al, PNAS, 2021
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CARBON SINKS: Biomass from space
[Biomass video]
• New maps for 2010, 2017 and 2018 at 100m
• Vegetation biomass is a key carbon sink, drawing down CO2 from the atmosphere
• Maps aim to support forest management, emissions reduction and inform Paris commitments, REDD+
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CRISTAL – Polar Ice & Snow Topography
CIMR – Passive Microwave Radiometer
CO2M - Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring
CHIME – Hyperspectral Imaging Mission
ROSE-L – L-band SAR Mission
LST – Land Surface Temperature Mission
Causes of Climate Change
Agriculture & Urban Management
Effects ofClimate Change
Food Security, Soil, Minerals, Biodiversity
Sea: Surface Temp. & Ice Concentration
Vegetation & Ground Motion & Moisture
Copernicus: Sentinel Expansion Missions
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Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring (CO2M) Mission
Artists impression of CO2M Mission. Credit: OHB
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Copernicus Land Surface Temperature Mission (LSTM)• To increase agricultural production
by monitoring crop stress• Temp at 30-50m resolution: 400
times finer than currently possible• Relevance: drought, heatwaves,
urban heat islands, permafrost thaw
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COPERNICUS IMAGING MICROWAVE RADIOMETER (CIMR)
• A game-changer for Earth observation: microwaves unaffected by cloud
• Focus is Arctic ‘no hole at the pole’• 99% global coverage after 1.5 days• Contributions to many climate variables
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FORUM – ESA’s 9th Earth Explorer• Far-infrared Outgoing Radiation
Understanding and Monitoring• Will evaluate the role of far IR in
shaping current climate: benefit for NWP and climate projection
• Improved detection of ice clouds
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CLIMATE FROM SPACE - WEB APP
à https://cfs.climate.esa.int
§ Explore the climate via 40 years of satellite data
§ 3D Globes & maps
§ Pinch, zoom, scroll
§ Select specific datasets
§ ‘Climate stories’
§ PC | Mobile |Tablet
§ Supporting lesson plans
[CfS video]
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ESA CLIMATE CLASSROOM RESOURCES
§ Primary & Secondary (upper and lower)§ Teacher guide & Student worksheets § Integrates use of ESA’s Climate from Space web app§ Supports STEM curricula§ Languages Eng – end Q2 DE, FR, ES, NL
à climate.esa.int/educate