15th LOSS Conference Demographic Changes

Dr. Gergely Fábián (University of Debrecen, Faculty of Health)

Dr. Ferenc Bódi (Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute for Political Science)

Giczey Péter (ÉLETFA Help Service Association)

Mátyás Bódi (Eötvös Loránd University Budapest – Faculty of Regional Studies)

Herder’s Prophecy - Reality or Herder’s Prophecy - Reality or Nightmare?Nightmare?

Demography and welfare policy Demography and welfare policy in Carpathian Basinin Carpathian Basin

Herder’s prophecy, reality or nightmare?

„Around the graves where we shall die a weeping world will come, and millions will in pity gaze upon the martyrs' tomb.”

Appeals (Szózat) 1836 Written by Mihály Vörösmarty Translated by Watson Kirkconnell,

The recent demographic situation

Life expectancy at birth: one of the lowest measured in Europe; males:69, females: 76 (www.who.com)

Decreasing population since the early 1980’s

TFR: 1,3 (203th rank from 223 country)

This situation is the result of a unique process:- influenced by the conscious pop. policy of the governments in power

during the XX th century, - The XX th century (wars, revolutions, etc.)

Life expectancy at birth for males

Life expectancy at birth for males

1970 1980 1990 1999 2000

Czech Republic66,2 66,8 67,6 71,4 71,7

Hungary66,3 65,5 65,1 66,3 67,1

Poland66,6 66,0 66,5 68,2 69,7

Rumania65,5 66,6 66,6 67,1 67,7

Slovakia66,7 66,8 66,7 69,0 69,2

Slovenia65,0 67,3 69,8 71,8 72,3

EU - 12 (new) 66,3 66,2 66,6 67,9 68,4

Life expectancy at birth for males

1970 1980 1990 1999 2000

Austria 66,5 69,0 72,3 75,1 75,4

Finland 66,2 69,3 71,0 73,8 74,2

Germany 67,5 69,6 72,0 74,7 75,0

Great Britain 69,0 70,8 72,9 75,0 75,5

Italy 68,7 70,6 73,6 76,3 76,3

Netherlands 70,8 72,5 73,8 75,3 75,5

Spain 69,9 72,2 73,3 75,1 75,7

Sweden 72,3 72,8 74,8 77,1 77,4

EU - 15 68,5 70,6 72,7 74,8 75,1

Life expectancy at birth for females

Life expectancy at birth for females

1970 1980 1990 1999 2000

Czech Republic73,1 73,9 75,5 78,2 78,4

Poland66,6 66,0 66,5 68,2 69,7

Hungary72,1 72,7 73,7 75,1 75,6

Rumania73,6 71,8 73,0 74,1 74,6

Slovakia73,0 74,3 75,5 77,2 77,4

Slovenia72,3 75,2 77,8 79,3 79,7

EU - 12 (new) 73,5 74,0 75,2 76,5 76,9

Life expectancy at birth for females

1970 1980 1990 1999 2000

Austria 73,4 76,0 78,8 81,0 81,2

Finland 74,4 77,8 78,9 81,0 81,0

Netherlands 76,4 79,1 80,0 80,5 80,5

Great Britain 75,2 76,9 78,6 79,8 80,2

Germany 73,5 76,1 78,4 80,7 81,0

Italy 74,4 77,2 80,1 82,6 82,4

Spain 75,2 78,2 80,3 82,1 82,5

Sweden 77,1 78,8 80,4 81,9 81,7

EU - 15 74,5 77,1 79,1 80,8 81,0

Ageing index, 1990

Ageing index, 2007

Regular child support rate in under 18 years old age population (2005)

Social „Jelly” (invalidity pensioner + unemployed / tax payer x 100)

The position and closing down of primary schools and kindergartens in our time in Hungary

• Methodology and background: Local Organization of Social Services (LOSS) model

Demand and Supply• The demand side: Demographic situation in Hungary

1988-2005• The supply side Changes in the number of

kindergartens • Changes in the number of primary schools• Conclusion

The demand sideDemographic situation

Aging indices in 1988 and 2005

Permanent population Ageing index 1988

Ageing index 2005

<500 1.8396 1.9008501-1100 1.2406 1.4459

1101-3000 1.0066 1.27133001-7000 0.9084 1.2159

7001-10000 0.8636 1.225710000 0.7525 1.2853

Total 1.2889 1.5131

The supply sideChanges in the number of kindergartens

Permanent

population 1988 1995 2005

<500 141 234 238501-1100 686 744 716

1101-3000 925 894 8633001-7000 517 497 478

7001-10000 227 229 19610000 2276 2122 2035

Total 4772 4720 4526

The supply sideChanges in the number of primary schools

Permanent

population 1988 1995 2005

<500 144 177 126501-1100 639 703 613

1101-3000 890 858 8633001-7000 349 342 373

7001-10000 131 143 13410000 1373 1586 1505

Total 3526 3809 3614

The utilisation of kindergartens and schools

Permanent population

Kindergartens1988 (%)

Kindergartens 2005 (%)

Schools 1988 (number of students per classroom)

Schools 2005(number of students per classroom)

<500 78.97 70.15 14.00 12.86

501-1100 92.49 80.20 16.52 13.28

1101-3000 97.33 90.59 21.79 17.40

3001-7000 100.22 101.77 25.16 19.86

7001-10000 99.43 99.98 25.94 21.34

10000 102.10 98.63 26.98 21.85

Total 95.37 87.45 20.60 16.71

Vicious Circle

TAX

Economic Force

Human Source

LOSS; Education(Strong – Weak?)

Conclusion• It is not easy to assess the educational system in Hungary, since, owing to its

special structural features, it is difficult to compare it to OECD or other EU Member States. Our education system is embedded in the texture of society and the lives of local communities in a different way and to a larger extent. Kindergartens and schools play a multifunctional role in the life of a society - they create and keep together a community, and quite often (especially in poorer or rural regions) they also perform the task of a social mission.

• According to National Institute for Public Education (OKI) surveys, 31.5 per cent of Hungarian schools have less than 150 pupils, accounting for 10% of the national student population. The Klebersberg principle survived the trials of the twentieth century, including the settlement and country planning and centralizing policies of the 1970s. According to Minister of Education Kunó Klebelsberg (in the 1920s) students should be able to walk to their schools within one hour.

• However, if nearly 400 small schools with fewer than 100 students were closed down with the stroke of a pen, referring to economies of scale, 1–2 per cent of the costs could be saved on the macro level, according to the calculations of the National Institute for Public Education (OKI) (Hermann; 2007).

Conclusion II.• The comparison of results from the National Competence Survey by settlement

type proves that the differences in parents’ qualifications account for a substantial part of the differences in the efficiency of schools.

• Consequently, neither efficiency nor higher expenditures offer grounds for considering the upkeep of schools in small settlements as one of the most serious efficiency problems of public education in Hungary (Hermann, 2007).

• The liquidation of small schools that operate within the framework of formal segregation but are efficient may satisfy some politicians; however, it will not influence positively the future role of the people concerned in the labour market - that is, the external efficiency of education and economic activity in the regions will not grow.

• A complex impact and efficiency analysis of the programmes carried out so far to bring up disadvantaged groups and areas is necessary, in order to be able to design more effective action plans for the future.

Impact of ageing

• 2050: Every 3rd citizen will be 60+ in the EU• Decreasing population of CEE countries

Challenges• Financing pension fees on lung run – less tax payer• Changing social services system –social supplies• Designing new services

Seniors’ poverty in Hungary

• 2010-2020: mass of middle age population reach the retirement age = 500.000 people

The problem is:• Part of them have not payed superannuation

tax/pension contribution or• every 3rd employee pay superannuation tax/pension

on the basis of minimum salary so they will get the minimum pensioners’ fee, cca. 140 EUR– 1.2 million seniors

Seniors’ poverty in Hungary

• There will be 500.000 seniors without pension• There will be 1.3 million seniors from 6 million

tax payer who won’t be eligible for pension, because they don’t have enough time in employment and they are not able to reach the minimum time.

Future in Hungary

What is needed (plans):• Senior citizens basic pension from age 65

– Have to pay from tax

• Senior citizens pension from employed time• ‘Self-catering’ – own savings

Future in Hungary

• Social supplies and services

– Senior citizens benefit Increasing amount of financial resources to provide minimum

– Health security for more senior citizens– Local services

• Meals• Care at home• Senior citizens’ homes

Future in Hungary

• Designing new services – role of the state?– Attitude change long run

• Thinking in future• Bottom up approach

– Community care• Communication among generations

– To activate senior citizens in their communities• Mutual help• Neighbourhood and group activities

Thank you for your attention!

28. September 2010., Nyíregyháza