12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate...
Transcript of 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate...
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12 FEBRUARY 2017
Participants:
Michael Gontar Andrew Pettit Paul BashirChief Investment OfficerWCP Investments
Founding PartnerREVCAP
COO & PresidentRound Hill Capital
Navigating Developed Real Estate Markets
Michael Gontar, Chief Investment Officer - WCP Investments US Real Estate: Cautiously Optimistic
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§ WCP Investments LP (“WCPI”) is a joint venture formed in 2015 between NBK Capital and Wafra Capital Partners Inc. (“WCP”)
§ WCP is a Registered Investment Advisor with over $4 billion in assets under management with a strategic focus on real estate financing, acquisitions and asset based lending (including leasing)
§ WCP, together with its partners, have originated over $3 billion in real estate financings since 2011
§ Since 2011 WCP or its principals have owned and managed 5,500 multi-family units across various geographies in the U.S. and 4.5 million square feet of commercial real estate in US
§ Over $1.4 billion in total acquisition costs and specialty financing, representing approximately $300 million in mezzanine/equity financing
WCP OVERVIEW
WCP Managed Assets AUM $(Billion)
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS
§ Declining Unemployment Rates• With unemployment at its lowest levels since the Great Depression, spending has increased• Lower corporate tax rates are expected to benefit commercial real estate• The improved tax environment is expected to benefit employment further in the coming years
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Unem
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Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Probability of a US Recession• For most of this recovery, the
probability of a recession has been low• Slow but steady recovery over 8.5 years,
second longest in post WWII history• Model prepared by Investment Strategy
Group pulls economic and survey data from purchasing managers indices and the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator
• Below 10% through Q1 2016 and currently stands at 17.6%
US Interest Rates“Fed Fumble… There’s growing talk that the Fed made an error in hiking rates.”- Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate in economics and professor at City University of
New York. January 26, 2016
“I think on balance it was a mistake to lock in a December rate increase.”- Lawrence Summers, professor at Harvard and former Secretary of the Treasury.
December 15, 2015
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MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING INDICATOR
§ Declining Homeownership• Multi-Family average rents continue to rise while home ownership remains at a 30 year low• With the passage of the new tax bill, U.S. Home ownership is unlikely to increase, resulting in
increasing demand for multi-family assets
65.6%
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MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING INDICATOR
§ Declining Vacancy Rates• Apartment vacancy rates continue to remain stable as home ownership rates decline• Millennials are renting longer and older homeowners are shifting to rental
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FRED Apartment Vacancy RateSource: Federal Reserve
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ACTIVE ADULT (55+) HOUSING INDICATOR
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Young children and older people as a percentage of global population: 1950 to 2050
Source: United Nations, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research
65 and over Under 5
§ Shifting Demographics• Aging population due to better healthcare and extended lifespans globally• Increasing popularity of renting later in life • The larger the elderly population is, the larger the rental pool can become
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COMMERCIAL OFFICE INDICATOR
§ Declining Vacancy Rates• Asking and effective rents increased 0.6% between Q3 and Q4 2017 representing highest
quarterly growth rate in six quarter• Rent growth was 1.8% for 2017• Slow down in new construction deliveries with 7 million square feet in Q4 2017 compared with
10.7 million square feet in Q4 2016
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TAX REFORM
§ In December 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed into law making with the most substantial changes since 1985
§ The changes in tax law are expected to be favorable to investors in U.S. real estate assets (residential and commercial)
Change ImpactLowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% Net operating losses may be carried forwardindefinitely as net operating losses and can be used to offset up to 80% of the taxable income
Positive impact on commercial leasing (and subsequent valuations) in high growth city areas; overall lower tax rate environment could spur economic growth
Retention of tax deferred exchange rules (1031) permitting tax deferred exchanges for real property
Maintains investors ability to roll over gains tax free
Retention of a full mortgage interest deduction for commercial and residential property landlords
Permits investors to decrease their taxable income
Removed the deductibility of state and local tax (SALT) deductions for individuals
High state and local tax areas may see a decrease in single family property valuations (e.g. NY, NJ, CA, etc.); Maybe positive for the multi-family sector if home ownership continues to decline
Decreased the personal mortgage interest deductions to the first 750,000 in mortgages
May increase the attractiveness of multi-family investing as individuals may be discouraged from home ownership (in particular in areas where home prices are well above the national average and property taxes are high – NY, NJ, CA, etc.)
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RISKS
President Trump• Twitter: @realDonaldTrump• Tax: long term effects of bill are yet to be
determined
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Competition• Large demand for US real estate• Immense liquidity from both international
and domestic investors
Interest Rates• Despite rising interest rates, cap rates and
inflation remain relatively stable• Unclear which direction New Federal
Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, will head in
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OUTLOOK
§ Returns remain high but are softening, while investor returns expectations are not diminishing• Ending of the yield cycle• Values under pressure
§ Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow• Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields
§ Economic back drop and changing dynamics point to variations in rental growth outlook• Opportunities in debt structures and supply constrained markets
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Thank you
Andrew Pettit, Founding Partner - REVCAPThe Case for European Core Plus Real Estate
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Revcap Offices
Revcap Core Geography
Revcap Secondary Geography
§ European Real Estate Specialist• 230+ years real estate experience amongst 13
Revcap partners• Invested over £2bn alongside institutional
investors since 2004
§ Disciplined Approach to Inefficient Real Estate Markets• Tried and tested underwriting and asset
management approach• Prudent leverage strategies deployed
§ Always operate in JV with Local Operating Partners• Provides sector specific and geographic focused
market intelligence• Alignment ensured through carefully crafted
capital structures
§ Long Term Track Record• Invested in over 375 transactions since
formation• Opportunistic business has generated an
average IRR of 20%+
INTRODUCTION TO REVCAP
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WHAT IS CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE?
§ Commercial real estate with a strong cash on cash return• Classic commercial property types -
office, retail, industrial• Alternative property types with long
leases – e.g. leased hotels, leisure and car showrooms
§ Higher yield due to modest flaws or opportunities to add value with excellent asset management• e.g. near term lease events; opportunity
to build additional floor space that is accretive to returns or actively replacing under-rented tenants
§ Potential to provide a sustainable long term income based return for investors• 6-8% annual cash return on equity is
targeted
§ Ability to add modest leverage to amplify cash on cash return on equity• Target interest only leverage up to 60%
LTV
§ Institutional exit potential• Target to sell stabilized institutional
quality assets to wide buyer universe in a full on-market sales process
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RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE
Source: Bloomberg/MSCI(a) Pan-European Aggregate Index tracks fixed-rate, investment-grade securities.(b) Euro Stoxx 50 index provides blue-chip representation of supersector leaders in the Eurozone(c ) Pan-European High Yield Index measure the market for non-investment grade, fixed grade corporate bonds
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Income Yield Comparison
Inco
me
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rn –
Dece
mbe
r 201
7 (P
erce
ntag
e%
)
Attractive income return vs other asset classes
German 10 yr Pan Euro Aggregate government bond Index (a)
EuroStoxx 50 Income (b) Index (c)
Pan Euro High Yield European Real EstateIncome Return
(December 2016)
Core-Plus Target Return
Core-Plus Target Return Leveraged
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RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE
0
50
100
150
200
250European Real Estate Investment Volumes
Billi
ons€
UK France Germany Spain Nordics Other1
European Real Estate markets are substantial and liquid
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172
Source: Knight Frank and Savills1 Other countries include: Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland and Poland2 2017 data includes first three quarters of the year only
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RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE
UK and Eurozone 5 year Swap Rates
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-1
Perc
enta
ge%
JAN 10 JUL 10 JAN 11 JUL 11 JAN 12 JUL 12 JAN 13 JUL 13 JAN 14 JUL 14 JAN 15 JUL 15 JAN 16 J UL 16 JAN 17 JUL 17
5 Year Euro Swap 5 Year GBP Swap Rate
Low leverage environment
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INCOME RETURN AND RENTAL GROWTH
Long term absolute income returns even through GFC
Perc
enta
ge%
Income Return (2001-2017)
Market Rental Growth (2001-2017)
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-15 JAN 05 JAN 06 JAN 07 JAN 08 JAN 09 JAN 10 JAN 11 JAN 12 JAN 13 JAN 14 JAN 15 JAN 16 JAN 17JAN 01 JAN 02 JAN 03 JAN 04
Source: MSCI
Income Return Rental Growth
15 year average 5.21% 0.65%
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§ Transparent and liquid markets• Increasing internationalization of real
estate – North American and Asian capital is being attracted (for different reasons)
• Revcap concentrates on the most deep and liquid geographic areas
§ Strong Property Fundamentals• Virtually no Grade A office vacancy in some
CBD’s (e.g. Berlin, London West End, Munich and Stockholm)
• Little capital appetite for aggressive speculative development
§ Robust, defensive cash flow• Income is underwritten as a high
proportion of total return in Revcap’s core plus strategy
§ Inflation Hedge• Many lease cash flows are linked to CPI
§ Very attractive debt markets• Low absolute cost of debt provides low
risk leverage
RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE
Strengths and Opportunities of a European Core Plus Real Estate Strategy
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Risks and Mitigants to a European Core Plus Real Estate Strategy
RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE
§ Market Cycle• QE is driving up asset prices in all sectors –
yields have compressed below previous low in many gateway locations
• Core plus strategy will avoid prime property and gateway cities where pricing is exaggerated
• Returns are not predicated on material yield compression
§ Illiquidity• Real estate is non-homogenous and prone
to periods of illiquidity• Core plus strategy is designed to allow a
“through the cycle” hold if necessary
§ Over-supply through development• Unlikely to occur due to bank discipline
and regulatory capital rules
§ Exposure to Eurozone weakness• Target markets are stronger economies
(e.g. Germany, France) which would be likely to fare better in the case of Eurozone turmoil
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REVCAP’S CORE PLUS EXECUTION STRATEGY
§ Utilize Revcap’s tried and tested origination network to source transactions• Direct relationships of Revcap partners and
team• Activation of small number of trusted Local
Operating Partners
§ Adopt Revcap’s institutional quality screening, due diligence and closing procedures• Based on 20+ year track record of
underwriting and risk analysis• Risk focus
§ Creation of aligned JV’s with Local Operating Partners to execute Business Plans• Leverage local knowledge, resources and
market contacts
§ Application of asset by asset leverage• Use longstanding debt relationships to
secure deal by deal financing with no recourse / guarantees of Eurozone turmoil
§ Institutional exit potential• Retain a nimble approach to agree
individual sales on a tactical basis• Potential to generate higher returns by
aggregating complementary assets into portfolios
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CreativeValue AddStrategies
THE CASE FOR CORE PLUS EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE
Target Returns – 10% total annual return to investors with largeproportion achieved through recurring income
Layersof
ReturnSustainable Core Income
Capital Preservation
REVCAP APPROACH
Use Revcap’s Value Addskill palette to add
further upside
Key focus to generate strong and
sustainable cashon cash return
Revcap underwriting approach targets
capital preservation
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CORE PLUS PARAMETERS
European Core Plus Parameters
Madrid, Spain
Leeds, England
Utrecht, Netherlands
Helsinki, Finland
§ Property acquisition yield of 5-7% –avoid “hot” markets
§ Acquire with “angle” – e.g. off market /special tenant knowledge
§ Seek to acquire near to or below replacement cost
§ Sustainable income streams§ Add value via leasing vacancy,
restructuring leases or modest development
§ 4-5 year business plan underwriting -with ability to extend
§ Accretive debt levels of 40-60% LTV§ No speculative development or
material refurbishment§ Institutional exit likely without
assuming major yield compression
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REAL ESTATE OVER A MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK
§ Rising Interest Rate Cycle• Goldilocks scenario with inflation
controlled and growth continuing or will rising interest rates eventually take their toll leading to a slowdown c. 2020?
§ Growth of E-Commerce• General merchandise and fashion retail
continues to deteriorate at the expense of logistics / convenience
• But will the playing field eventually be levelled by tax policy?
§ Demographic Trends• Ageing European population – e.g.
Germany / Italy → increased need for specialist residences, healthcare and retirement
• Urbanization trends continuing, ongoing migration into Europe and its leading cities
§ Technology• Development of AI / robotics will create
tech clusters before eventually leading to a net reduction in jobs of Eurozone turmoil
• Advances in 3D printing technology will transform location and efficiency of manufacturing processes
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Thank you
Paul Bashir, COO & President - Round Hill Capital European Student accommodation
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STRONG DEMAND FOR STUDENT ACCOMMODATION
Demand for student accommodation supported by trend of increasing student volume, increasing levels of higher education and increasing numbers of students studying outside their country of citizenship
Global trend towards more students enrolling
in Higher Education 1
Total enrolment in higher education, expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 15+ educated to a degree level
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020EU.K. France GermanyIreland Italy NetherlandsPortugal Spain
Avg: 22.5%
Avg: 13.3%
30 millionstudents are currently
enrolled in higher education in Europe3
213 millionstudents are currently
enrolled in higher education globally3
c. 1 millionoutbound internationally
mobile students coming from the top 3 markets4
6,053English taught
programmes across key European markets5
£18 billionworth of student housing investments made since 2010 in the UK alone5
Sources:(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), (2) Savills, European Student Housing (2013), (3) UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2016), (4) Savills, World Student Housing (2016), (5) JLL, European Student Housing (2017)
0.8m 1.1m 1.1m 1.3m1.8m 2.1m
3.0m4.1m
8.0m
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2025
…And increasing proportion of European
international students 2
Number of European students enrolled outside their country of citizenship forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 4.6%
§ Enrolment in higher education stands at 30 million students in Europe and 213 million students globally3
§ The top 3 sources for international students are represented by China (c. 712k outbound students), India (c. 182k outbound students) and Germany (c. 119k outbound students)4
§ Important European destination markets include the UK, France, Ireland, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands5
§ An increasingly international student population has fuelled demand for purpose-built student accommodation in attractive higher education markets
§ Globally, more institutions are recognising the value of international students by offering courses in English, visas and a higher standard of education5
§ In 2007/08, there were only c. 500 available English Taught Programmes (ETP’s) in key European markets (Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands), compared to over 6,000 taught courses today5
Key takeaways
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STRONG DEMAND FOR STUDENT ACCOMMODATION
Demand for student accommodation supported by trend of increasing student volume, increasing levels of higher education and increasing numbers of students studying outside their country of citizenship
30 millionstudents are currently
enrolled in higher education in Europe3
213 millionstudents are currently
enrolled in higher education globally3
c. 1 millionoutbound internationally
mobile students coming from the top 3 markets4
6,053English taught
programmes across key European markets5
£18 billionworth of student housing investments made since 2010 in the UK alone5
Sources:(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), (2) Savills, European Student Housing (2013), (3) UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2016), (4) Savills, World Student Housing (2016), (5) JLL, European Student Housing (2017)
§ Enrolment in higher education stands at 30 million students in Europe and 213 million students globally3
§ The top 3 sources for international students are represented by China (c. 712k outbound students), India (c. 182k outbound students) and Germany (c. 119k outbound students)4
§ Important European destination markets include the UK, France, Ireland, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands5
§ An increasingly international student population has fuelled demand for purpose-built student accommodation in attractive highereducation markets
§ Globally, more institutions are recognising the value of international students by offering courses in English, visas and a higher standard of education5
§ In 2007/08, there were only c. 500 available English Taught Programmes (ETP’s) in key European markets (Italy, Spain, France,Germany, Netherlands), compared to over 6,000 taught courses today5
Key takeaways
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MARKET SUPPLY - EUROPE
RHC Target Countries
Student accommodation market share1
Less than half of the students in key European countries have access to PBSA
24.9%
15.3% 15.3%
10.6%
6.5% 6.0%4.6%
2.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
U.K.
Ireland
France
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Portugal
Italy
(1) Source: JLL European Student Housing 2017
§ Average student hall provision in RHC’s target countries is just 10%, suggesting significant undersupply across the jurisdictions
§ Compared to the U.K., the market share of student accommodation in other key European markets is considerably lower, both for university owned and privately operated beds
§ Provision of student housing and the behaviour of student occupiers across Europe varies significantly between countries
§ Rising incomes, improving standards of living, and rapid growth in the number of international students mean a significant group of students have higher expectations of their accommodation
Demand Supply Imbalance Remains Significant1
On average, there is one PBSA bed space available for 8 students in key European countries
3.0m
2.4m2.3m
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1.5m
0.7m
0.4m0.2m
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France U.K.
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Portugal
Ireland
Dem
and
/ Sup
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tiple
Tota
l Stu
dent
s (m
illio
ns)
Domestic International Demand / Supply Multiple
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KEY EUROPEAN STUDENT INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS
Key student accommodation investment transactions in 2016 and 2017
5,700 beds
Avenue Capital - Rose Portfolio, UK – $580m
360/Oaktree Portfolio, UK – $800m
7,150 beds
360/Oaktree Portfolio, Ireland – $240m
1,500 beds
Union State Portfolio, UK – $580m
6,500 beds
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OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS TO PBSA IN EUROPE
§ Former University/institutional stock will be made available for repositioning
§ Increase in EU institutions offering English language courses
§ Sophisticated Universities in all territories recruiting more efficiently in international markets
§ Experiential offering and providing additional value-add services
§ Universities to rely more on private PBSA than previously to capitalise on international travelling students
Opportunities
§ Affordability issues through pockets of oversupply in particular cities
§ Challenges in securing availability of good quality development sites
§ Lengthy planning and building permit process
§ New institutions entering the market increasing competition
Threats
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FUTURE MARKET PRICING
Where will market pricing be in the next 5 years what are the key market drivers?
§ Supply / Demand imbalance in key European University Cities driving rental values
§ Affordability following strong rental growth?
§ Positive effect of Brexit on attractive cities outside of the UK
§ PBSA strong economic fundamentals as a hedge to market cycles
§ Return to a historical level of inflation will serve to increase student rental levels
§ PBSA Yields to remain stable in more established markets – London/UK with opportunities in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Scandinavia
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DEVELOPMENT PREMIUM PROVIDES VALUE ADD UPSIDE
§ Average pipeline assets can be constructed at a NOI yield on cost of 8.4% (11.9x multiple) on average with stabilized assets in those same markets trading at a NOI yield of 6.3% (15.9x multiple), representing an average development premium of 34%
§ Additional value can be created through outpaced market rental growth and cost synergies driven by RHC’s scalable operating platform
Development premium provides the opportunity for enhanced returns
Value creation expressed in spread between yield on cost and market yields1
8.80%
6.50%
7.00%
5.00%
8.30%
6.00%
8.30%
6.00%
9.60%
5.75%
8.25%
5.5%
8.58%
5.83%
Yieldon Cost
ExitYield
Yieldon Cost
ExitYield
Yieldon Cost
ExitYield
Yieldon Cost
ExitYield
Yieldon Cost
ExitYield
Yieldon Cost
ExitYield
Yieldon Cost
ExitYield
Florence Paris Barcelona Madrid Amsterdam Average
Average development premium of 34%
1 Based on Round Hill’s underwriting and experience to date.
Dublin
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EVOLUTION OF THE STUDENT MARKET
Evolution from first generation to second generation purpose-built student accommodation
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EVOLUTION OF THE STUDENT MARKET
Trend to second generation PBSE and multi purpose shared amenity spaces
Latest arrival: Multi-purpose shared space
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NIDO - DIFFERENTIATING THE BUSINESS
Daily Deliveries
Technology
Average of 3.2 devicesowned per student
Where do our residents come from?
Asia 41%Europe 40%North America 13%Africa 3%South America 2%Australasia 1%
106 Nationalities living at Nido
China 14%
India 12%
USA 10%
Understanding client base
Fulfilling needs
Recognizing needs
Capex to Drive Rate
Case Study - Ireland
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IRELAND – RHC TARGET STUDENT MARKET
Strong growth in student numbers coupled with shortages in PBSA
Ireland’s full-time undergraduate student population currently stands at close to 200,000
2.7% growth p.a. since
2000
177,590
110,000
120,000
130,000
140,000
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Enrolment of Full-Time Undergraduate Students
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DUBLIN STUDENT SUB-MARKET OVERVIEW
Rising student numbers coupled with shortages in purpose-built student housing has caused a supply/demand imbalance in the student accommodation sector
Student / Bed supply multiple
Student accommodation demand far exceeds the
existing supply
10,500
78,800
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
Supply ofBeds
StudentPopulation
Student / Bed supply multiple: 7.5x
Source: Knight Frank Research
Pipeline projection
4,197
1,027
1,957
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
UnderConstruction
PlanningPermission
Granted
PlanningProcess
Num
ber o
f Bed
s
Limited pipeline consisting of 21 private projects
totalling c. 7,200 beds
Source: Knight Frank Research
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WORLD STUDENT HOUSING 10 YEAR OUTLOOK
Middle tier market, Co-living, Institutionalisation, Diversification, Investment Growth and Urbanisation
Key takeaways
n Under-served middle tier student accommodation product. Partnerships with Universities or social providers may be a means to provide more middle tier product
n Co-living model mixing students with other occupiers and users – Factory, The Collective etc
n Institutionalisation and market maturity outside of the UK and US
n Diversification – Portfolios to include both PBSA and residential
n Growth – Investment growth to continue as pioneers sell and recapitalise, fuelling investment activity
n Urbanisation – Trend towards increasing numbers of people living in cities with 2 billion new urban residents in the next 20 years and rural population figures forecast to remain flat
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