12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate...

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1 12 FEBRUARY 2017

Transcript of 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate...

Page 1: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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12 FEBRUARY 2017

Page 2: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

Participants:

Michael Gontar Andrew Pettit Paul BashirChief Investment OfficerWCP Investments

Founding PartnerREVCAP

COO & PresidentRound Hill Capital

Navigating Developed Real Estate Markets

Page 3: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

Michael Gontar, Chief Investment Officer - WCP Investments US Real Estate: Cautiously Optimistic

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§ WCP Investments LP (“WCPI”) is a joint venture formed in 2015 between NBK Capital and Wafra Capital Partners Inc. (“WCP”)

§ WCP is a Registered Investment Advisor with over $4 billion in assets under management with a strategic focus on real estate financing, acquisitions and asset based lending (including leasing)

§ WCP, together with its partners, have originated over $3 billion in real estate financings since 2011

§ Since 2011 WCP or its principals have owned and managed 5,500 multi-family units across various geographies in the U.S. and 4.5 million square feet of commercial real estate in US

§ Over $1.4 billion in total acquisition costs and specialty financing, representing approximately $300 million in mezzanine/equity financing

WCP OVERVIEW

WCP Managed Assets AUM $(Billion)

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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1.01.6

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2.53.1 3.2 3.3 3.5

3.8 4.0 4.3

Page 5: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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ECONOMIC INDICATORS

§ Declining Unemployment Rates• With unemployment at its lowest levels since the Great Depression, spending has increased• Lower corporate tax rates are expected to benefit commercial real estate• The improved tax environment is expected to benefit employment further in the coming years

5.0%

7.8%

3.8%

6.3%

4.4%

10.0%

4.1%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

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Unem

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Unemployment RateSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Page 6: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Probability of a US Recession• For most of this recovery, the

probability of a recession has been low• Slow but steady recovery over 8.5 years,

second longest in post WWII history• Model prepared by Investment Strategy

Group pulls economic and survey data from purchasing managers indices and the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator

• Below 10% through Q1 2016 and currently stands at 17.6%

US Interest Rates“Fed Fumble… There’s growing talk that the Fed made an error in hiking rates.”- Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate in economics and professor at City University of

New York. January 26, 2016

“I think on balance it was a mistake to lock in a December rate increase.”- Lawrence Summers, professor at Harvard and former Secretary of the Treasury.

December 15, 2015

Page 7: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING INDICATOR

§ Declining Homeownership• Multi-Family average rents continue to rise while home ownership remains at a 30 year low• With the passage of the new tax bill, U.S. Home ownership is unlikely to increase, resulting in

increasing demand for multi-family assets

65.6%

64.0%

63.0%

63.9%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

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69.0%

70.0%

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U.S.

Hom

eow

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hip

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U.S. Homeownership Rate

Page 8: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING INDICATOR

§ Declining Vacancy Rates• Apartment vacancy rates continue to remain stable as home ownership rates decline• Millennials are renting longer and older homeowners are shifting to rental

8.9

5.1

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6.9

11.1

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FRED Apartment Vacancy RateSource: Federal Reserve

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ACTIVE ADULT (55+) HOUSING INDICATOR

4.8

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

% o

f Glo

bal P

opul

atio

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Young children and older people as a percentage of global population: 1950 to 2050

Source: United Nations, Haver Analytics, DB Global Markets Research

65 and over Under 5

§ Shifting Demographics• Aging population due to better healthcare and extended lifespans globally• Increasing popularity of renting later in life • The larger the elderly population is, the larger the rental pool can become

Page 10: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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COMMERCIAL OFFICE INDICATOR

§ Declining Vacancy Rates• Asking and effective rents increased 0.6% between Q3 and Q4 2017 representing highest

quarterly growth rate in six quarter• Rent growth was 1.8% for 2017• Slow down in new construction deliveries with 7 million square feet in Q4 2017 compared with

10.7 million square feet in Q4 2016

19.5%

8.0%

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17.4%16.1%

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acan

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ate

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ual d

ata)

Office Vacancy RateSource: Reis Office Vacancy Rate

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TAX REFORM

§ In December 2017, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed into law making with the most substantial changes since 1985

§ The changes in tax law are expected to be favorable to investors in U.S. real estate assets (residential and commercial)

Change ImpactLowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% Net operating losses may be carried forwardindefinitely as net operating losses and can be used to offset up to 80% of the taxable income

Positive impact on commercial leasing (and subsequent valuations) in high growth city areas; overall lower tax rate environment could spur economic growth

Retention of tax deferred exchange rules (1031) permitting tax deferred exchanges for real property

Maintains investors ability to roll over gains tax free

Retention of a full mortgage interest deduction for commercial and residential property landlords

Permits investors to decrease their taxable income

Removed the deductibility of state and local tax (SALT) deductions for individuals

High state and local tax areas may see a decrease in single family property valuations (e.g. NY, NJ, CA, etc.); Maybe positive for the multi-family sector if home ownership continues to decline

Decreased the personal mortgage interest deductions to the first 750,000 in mortgages

May increase the attractiveness of multi-family investing as individuals may be discouraged from home ownership (in particular in areas where home prices are well above the national average and property taxes are high – NY, NJ, CA, etc.)

Page 12: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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RISKS

President Trump• Twitter: @realDonaldTrump• Tax: long term effects of bill are yet to be

determined

0.002.004.006.008.00

10.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.00

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% C

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Federal Funds Rate and Inflation

Federal Funds Rate Core CPI (4 qtr change)

Competition• Large demand for US real estate• Immense liquidity from both international

and domestic investors

Interest Rates• Despite rising interest rates, cap rates and

inflation remain relatively stable• Unclear which direction New Federal

Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, will head in

Page 13: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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OUTLOOK

§ Returns remain high but are softening, while investor returns expectations are not diminishing• Ending of the yield cycle• Values under pressure

§ Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow• Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

§ Economic back drop and changing dynamics point to variations in rental growth outlook• Opportunities in debt structures and supply constrained markets

Page 14: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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Thank you

Page 15: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

Andrew Pettit, Founding Partner - REVCAPThe Case for European Core Plus Real Estate

Page 16: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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Revcap Offices

Revcap Core Geography

Revcap Secondary Geography

§ European Real Estate Specialist• 230+ years real estate experience amongst 13

Revcap partners• Invested over £2bn alongside institutional

investors since 2004

§ Disciplined Approach to Inefficient Real Estate Markets• Tried and tested underwriting and asset

management approach• Prudent leverage strategies deployed

§ Always operate in JV with Local Operating Partners• Provides sector specific and geographic focused

market intelligence• Alignment ensured through carefully crafted

capital structures

§ Long Term Track Record• Invested in over 375 transactions since

formation• Opportunistic business has generated an

average IRR of 20%+

INTRODUCTION TO REVCAP

Page 17: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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WHAT IS CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE?

§ Commercial real estate with a strong cash on cash return• Classic commercial property types -

office, retail, industrial• Alternative property types with long

leases – e.g. leased hotels, leisure and car showrooms

§ Higher yield due to modest flaws or opportunities to add value with excellent asset management• e.g. near term lease events; opportunity

to build additional floor space that is accretive to returns or actively replacing under-rented tenants

§ Potential to provide a sustainable long term income based return for investors• 6-8% annual cash return on equity is

targeted

§ Ability to add modest leverage to amplify cash on cash return on equity• Target interest only leverage up to 60%

LTV

§ Institutional exit potential• Target to sell stabilized institutional

quality assets to wide buyer universe in a full on-market sales process

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RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE

Source: Bloomberg/MSCI(a) Pan-European Aggregate Index tracks fixed-rate, investment-grade securities.(b) Euro Stoxx 50 index provides blue-chip representation of supersector leaders in the Eurozone(c ) Pan-European High Yield Index measure the market for non-investment grade, fixed grade corporate bonds

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Income Yield Comparison

Inco

me

Retu

rn –

Dece

mbe

r 201

7 (P

erce

ntag

e%

)

Attractive income return vs other asset classes

German 10 yr Pan Euro Aggregate government bond Index (a)

EuroStoxx 50 Income (b) Index (c)

Pan Euro High Yield European Real EstateIncome Return

(December 2016)

Core-Plus Target Return

Core-Plus Target Return Leveraged

Page 19: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE

0

50

100

150

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250European Real Estate Investment Volumes

Billi

ons€

UK France Germany Spain Nordics Other1

European Real Estate markets are substantial and liquid

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20172

Source: Knight Frank and Savills1 Other countries include: Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Ireland and Poland2 2017 data includes first three quarters of the year only

Page 20: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE

UK and Eurozone 5 year Swap Rates

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enta

ge%

JAN 10 JUL 10 JAN 11 JUL 11 JAN 12 JUL 12 JAN 13 JUL 13 JAN 14 JUL 14 JAN 15 JUL 15 JAN 16 J UL 16 JAN 17 JUL 17

5 Year Euro Swap 5 Year GBP Swap Rate

Low leverage environment

Page 21: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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INCOME RETURN AND RENTAL GROWTH

Long term absolute income returns even through GFC

Perc

enta

ge%

Income Return (2001-2017)

Market Rental Growth (2001-2017)

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-10

-15 JAN 05 JAN 06 JAN 07 JAN 08 JAN 09 JAN 10 JAN 11 JAN 12 JAN 13 JAN 14 JAN 15 JAN 16 JAN 17JAN 01 JAN 02 JAN 03 JAN 04

Source: MSCI

Income Return Rental Growth

15 year average 5.21% 0.65%

Page 22: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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§ Transparent and liquid markets• Increasing internationalization of real

estate – North American and Asian capital is being attracted (for different reasons)

• Revcap concentrates on the most deep and liquid geographic areas

§ Strong Property Fundamentals• Virtually no Grade A office vacancy in some

CBD’s (e.g. Berlin, London West End, Munich and Stockholm)

• Little capital appetite for aggressive speculative development

§ Robust, defensive cash flow• Income is underwritten as a high

proportion of total return in Revcap’s core plus strategy

§ Inflation Hedge• Many lease cash flows are linked to CPI

§ Very attractive debt markets• Low absolute cost of debt provides low

risk leverage

RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE

Strengths and Opportunities of a European Core Plus Real Estate Strategy

Page 23: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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Risks and Mitigants to a European Core Plus Real Estate Strategy

RATIONALE FOR EUROPEAN CORE PLUS REAL ESTATE

§ Market Cycle• QE is driving up asset prices in all sectors –

yields have compressed below previous low in many gateway locations

• Core plus strategy will avoid prime property and gateway cities where pricing is exaggerated

• Returns are not predicated on material yield compression

§ Illiquidity• Real estate is non-homogenous and prone

to periods of illiquidity• Core plus strategy is designed to allow a

“through the cycle” hold if necessary

§ Over-supply through development• Unlikely to occur due to bank discipline

and regulatory capital rules

§ Exposure to Eurozone weakness• Target markets are stronger economies

(e.g. Germany, France) which would be likely to fare better in the case of Eurozone turmoil

Page 24: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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REVCAP’S CORE PLUS EXECUTION STRATEGY

§ Utilize Revcap’s tried and tested origination network to source transactions• Direct relationships of Revcap partners and

team• Activation of small number of trusted Local

Operating Partners

§ Adopt Revcap’s institutional quality screening, due diligence and closing procedures• Based on 20+ year track record of

underwriting and risk analysis• Risk focus

§ Creation of aligned JV’s with Local Operating Partners to execute Business Plans• Leverage local knowledge, resources and

market contacts

§ Application of asset by asset leverage• Use longstanding debt relationships to

secure deal by deal financing with no recourse / guarantees of Eurozone turmoil

§ Institutional exit potential• Retain a nimble approach to agree

individual sales on a tactical basis• Potential to generate higher returns by

aggregating complementary assets into portfolios

Page 25: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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CreativeValue AddStrategies

THE CASE FOR CORE PLUS EUROPEAN REAL ESTATE

Target Returns – 10% total annual return to investors with largeproportion achieved through recurring income

Layersof

ReturnSustainable Core Income

Capital Preservation

REVCAP APPROACH

Use Revcap’s Value Addskill palette to add

further upside

Key focus to generate strong and

sustainable cashon cash return

Revcap underwriting approach targets

capital preservation

Page 26: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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CORE PLUS PARAMETERS

European Core Plus Parameters

Madrid, Spain

Leeds, England

Utrecht, Netherlands

Helsinki, Finland

§ Property acquisition yield of 5-7% –avoid “hot” markets

§ Acquire with “angle” – e.g. off market /special tenant knowledge

§ Seek to acquire near to or below replacement cost

§ Sustainable income streams§ Add value via leasing vacancy,

restructuring leases or modest development

§ 4-5 year business plan underwriting -with ability to extend

§ Accretive debt levels of 40-60% LTV§ No speculative development or

material refurbishment§ Institutional exit likely without

assuming major yield compression

Page 27: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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REAL ESTATE OVER A MEDIUM TERM OUTLOOK

§ Rising Interest Rate Cycle• Goldilocks scenario with inflation

controlled and growth continuing or will rising interest rates eventually take their toll leading to a slowdown c. 2020?

§ Growth of E-Commerce• General merchandise and fashion retail

continues to deteriorate at the expense of logistics / convenience

• But will the playing field eventually be levelled by tax policy?

§ Demographic Trends• Ageing European population – e.g.

Germany / Italy → increased need for specialist residences, healthcare and retirement

• Urbanization trends continuing, ongoing migration into Europe and its leading cities

§ Technology• Development of AI / robotics will create

tech clusters before eventually leading to a net reduction in jobs of Eurozone turmoil

• Advances in 3D printing technology will transform location and efficiency of manufacturing processes

Page 28: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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Thank you

Page 29: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

Paul Bashir, COO & President - Round Hill Capital European Student accommodation

Page 30: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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STRONG DEMAND FOR STUDENT ACCOMMODATION

Demand for student accommodation supported by trend of increasing student volume, increasing levels of higher education and increasing numbers of students studying outside their country of citizenship

Global trend towards more students enrolling

in Higher Education 1

Total enrolment in higher education, expressed as a percentage of the total population aged 15+ educated to a degree level

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020EU.K. France GermanyIreland Italy NetherlandsPortugal Spain

Avg: 22.5%

Avg: 13.3%

30 millionstudents are currently

enrolled in higher education in Europe3

213 millionstudents are currently

enrolled in higher education globally3

c. 1 millionoutbound internationally

mobile students coming from the top 3 markets4

6,053English taught

programmes across key European markets5

£18 billionworth of student housing investments made since 2010 in the UK alone5

Sources:(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), (2) Savills, European Student Housing (2013), (3) UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2016), (4) Savills, World Student Housing (2016), (5) JLL, European Student Housing (2017)

0.8m 1.1m 1.1m 1.3m1.8m 2.1m

3.0m4.1m

8.0m

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2025

…And increasing proportion of European

international students 2

Number of European students enrolled outside their country of citizenship forecasted to increase at a CAGR of 4.6%

§ Enrolment in higher education stands at 30 million students in Europe and 213 million students globally3

§ The top 3 sources for international students are represented by China (c. 712k outbound students), India (c. 182k outbound students) and Germany (c. 119k outbound students)4

§ Important European destination markets include the UK, France, Ireland, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands5

§ An increasingly international student population has fuelled demand for purpose-built student accommodation in attractive higher education markets

§ Globally, more institutions are recognising the value of international students by offering courses in English, visas and a higher standard of education5

§ In 2007/08, there were only c. 500 available English Taught Programmes (ETP’s) in key European markets (Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands), compared to over 6,000 taught courses today5

Key takeaways

Page 31: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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STRONG DEMAND FOR STUDENT ACCOMMODATION

Demand for student accommodation supported by trend of increasing student volume, increasing levels of higher education and increasing numbers of students studying outside their country of citizenship

30 millionstudents are currently

enrolled in higher education in Europe3

213 millionstudents are currently

enrolled in higher education globally3

c. 1 millionoutbound internationally

mobile students coming from the top 3 markets4

6,053English taught

programmes across key European markets5

£18 billionworth of student housing investments made since 2010 in the UK alone5

Sources:(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), (2) Savills, European Student Housing (2013), (3) UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2016), (4) Savills, World Student Housing (2016), (5) JLL, European Student Housing (2017)

§ Enrolment in higher education stands at 30 million students in Europe and 213 million students globally3

§ The top 3 sources for international students are represented by China (c. 712k outbound students), India (c. 182k outbound students) and Germany (c. 119k outbound students)4

§ Important European destination markets include the UK, France, Ireland, Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands5

§ An increasingly international student population has fuelled demand for purpose-built student accommodation in attractive highereducation markets

§ Globally, more institutions are recognising the value of international students by offering courses in English, visas and a higher standard of education5

§ In 2007/08, there were only c. 500 available English Taught Programmes (ETP’s) in key European markets (Italy, Spain, France,Germany, Netherlands), compared to over 6,000 taught courses today5

Key takeaways

Page 32: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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MARKET SUPPLY - EUROPE

RHC Target Countries

Student accommodation market share1

Less than half of the students in key European countries have access to PBSA

24.9%

15.3% 15.3%

10.6%

6.5% 6.0%4.6%

2.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

U.K.

Ireland

France

Germany

Netherlands

Spain

Portugal

Italy

(1) Source: JLL European Student Housing 2017

§ Average student hall provision in RHC’s target countries is just 10%, suggesting significant undersupply across the jurisdictions

§ Compared to the U.K., the market share of student accommodation in other key European markets is considerably lower, both for university owned and privately operated beds

§ Provision of student housing and the behaviour of student occupiers across Europe varies significantly between countries

§ Rising incomes, improving standards of living, and rapid growth in the number of international students mean a significant group of students have higher expectations of their accommodation

Demand Supply Imbalance Remains Significant1

On average, there is one PBSA bed space available for 8 students in key European countries

3.0m

2.4m2.3m

1.9m

1.5m

0.7m

0.4m0.2m

0.0x

5.0x

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Germany

France U.K.

Italy

Spain

Netherlands

Portugal

Ireland

Dem

and

/ Sup

ply

Mul

tiple

Tota

l Stu

dent

s (m

illio

ns)

Domestic International Demand / Supply Multiple

Page 33: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

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KEY EUROPEAN STUDENT INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS

Key student accommodation investment transactions in 2016 and 2017

5,700 beds

Avenue Capital - Rose Portfolio, UK – $580m

360/Oaktree Portfolio, UK – $800m

7,150 beds

360/Oaktree Portfolio, Ireland – $240m

1,500 beds

Union State Portfolio, UK – $580m

6,500 beds

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OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS TO PBSA IN EUROPE

§ Former University/institutional stock will be made available for repositioning

§ Increase in EU institutions offering English language courses

§ Sophisticated Universities in all territories recruiting more efficiently in international markets

§ Experiential offering and providing additional value-add services

§ Universities to rely more on private PBSA than previously to capitalise on international travelling students

Opportunities

§ Affordability issues through pockets of oversupply in particular cities

§ Challenges in securing availability of good quality development sites

§ Lengthy planning and building permit process

§ New institutions entering the market increasing competition

Threats

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FUTURE MARKET PRICING

Where will market pricing be in the next 5 years what are the key market drivers?

§ Supply / Demand imbalance in key European University Cities driving rental values

§ Affordability following strong rental growth?

§ Positive effect of Brexit on attractive cities outside of the UK

§ PBSA strong economic fundamentals as a hedge to market cycles

§ Return to a historical level of inflation will serve to increase student rental levels

§ PBSA Yields to remain stable in more established markets – London/UK with opportunities in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Scandinavia

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DEVELOPMENT PREMIUM PROVIDES VALUE ADD UPSIDE

§ Average pipeline assets can be constructed at a NOI yield on cost of 8.4% (11.9x multiple) on average with stabilized assets in those same markets trading at a NOI yield of 6.3% (15.9x multiple), representing an average development premium of 34%

§ Additional value can be created through outpaced market rental growth and cost synergies driven by RHC’s scalable operating platform

Development premium provides the opportunity for enhanced returns

Value creation expressed in spread between yield on cost and market yields1

8.80%

6.50%

7.00%

5.00%

8.30%

6.00%

8.30%

6.00%

9.60%

5.75%

8.25%

5.5%

8.58%

5.83%

Yieldon Cost

ExitYield

Yieldon Cost

ExitYield

Yieldon Cost

ExitYield

Yieldon Cost

ExitYield

Yieldon Cost

ExitYield

Yieldon Cost

ExitYield

Yieldon Cost

ExitYield

Florence Paris Barcelona Madrid Amsterdam Average

Average development premium of 34%

1 Based on Round Hill’s underwriting and experience to date.

Dublin

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EVOLUTION OF THE STUDENT MARKET

Evolution from first generation to second generation purpose-built student accommodation

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EVOLUTION OF THE STUDENT MARKET

Trend to second generation PBSE and multi purpose shared amenity spaces

Latest arrival: Multi-purpose shared space

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NIDO - DIFFERENTIATING THE BUSINESS

Daily Deliveries

Technology

Average of 3.2 devicesowned per student

Where do our residents come from?

Asia 41%Europe 40%North America 13%Africa 3%South America 2%Australasia 1%

106 Nationalities living at Nido

China 14%

India 12%

USA 10%

Understanding client base

Fulfilling needs

Recognizing needs

Capex to Drive Rate

Page 40: 12 FEBRUARY 2017 - NBK Capital · • Values under pressure § Investor appetite for real estate continues to grow • Expect investors to move up risk curve in search of higher yields

Case Study - Ireland

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IRELAND – RHC TARGET STUDENT MARKET

Strong growth in student numbers coupled with shortages in PBSA

Ireland’s full-time undergraduate student population currently stands at close to 200,000

2.7% growth p.a. since

2000

177,590

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

170,000

180,000

190,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Enrolment of Full-Time Undergraduate Students

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DUBLIN STUDENT SUB-MARKET OVERVIEW

Rising student numbers coupled with shortages in purpose-built student housing has caused a supply/demand imbalance in the student accommodation sector

Student / Bed supply multiple

Student accommodation demand far exceeds the

existing supply

10,500

78,800

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

Supply ofBeds

StudentPopulation

Student / Bed supply multiple: 7.5x

Source: Knight Frank Research

Pipeline projection

4,197

1,027

1,957

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

UnderConstruction

PlanningPermission

Granted

PlanningProcess

Num

ber o

f Bed

s

Limited pipeline consisting of 21 private projects

totalling c. 7,200 beds

Source: Knight Frank Research

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WORLD STUDENT HOUSING 10 YEAR OUTLOOK

Middle tier market, Co-living, Institutionalisation, Diversification, Investment Growth and Urbanisation

Key takeaways

n Under-served middle tier student accommodation product. Partnerships with Universities or social providers may be a means to provide more middle tier product

n Co-living model mixing students with other occupiers and users – Factory, The Collective etc

n Institutionalisation and market maturity outside of the UK and US

n Diversification – Portfolios to include both PBSA and residential

n Growth – Investment growth to continue as pioneers sell and recapitalise, fuelling investment activity

n Urbanisation – Trend towards increasing numbers of people living in cities with 2 billion new urban residents in the next 20 years and rural population figures forecast to remain flat

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