11011 Richmond, Suite 600 | Houston, Texas 77042 | 713.789.3323 | Technology's Future: Infinity &...

11011 Richmond, Suite 600 | Houston, Texas 77042 | 713.789.3323 | www.3545consulting.com

Technology's Future: Infinity & Beyond

Robert Rice

© 2008 Rice Software Consulting, LLC


Interest in Technology

• Fascinated by the changes in my lifetime• Noticed that the speed of changes is

increasing• Predicting future of technology is getting more

critical in order to make short or mid-term decisions



Purpose of this Presentation• Make you aware of the rapid rate of change in

technology (not just the changes in technology)

• Make you think about how rapid change might affect you personally and professionally

• Prepare your mind for the difficult ethical and moral dilemmas that may occur when some technologies become available



Let’s Talk About the Future• Today we will make predictions about future

technologies and their impacts on our lives and some difficult ethical dilemmas that can arise from those changes.

• These will be thought experiments! The changes discussed may never occur or may occur later than expected or in ways different than expected – no one knows the future!



Predictions are Risky• Predictions can be wrong• Wrong prediction can drive improper

investment of money• Can sound too techy/nerdy (make you sound

like a kook)• Can sound like you have watched too much Star

Trek



But Don’t Forget . . .• Some Star Trek predictions have basically come true.• You can’t write off a prediction just because it was on Star Trek



What are the Tools for Prediction?• Observation and Extrapolation

– Observe the Past– Analyze the patterns– Project into the future

• The Law of Accelerating Returns– Evolution (biological and technological) applies

some of its benefit back upon itself resulting in an exponential increase over time.



Linear vs. Exponential – The Curve

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

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40

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140

LINEAREXPONENTIAL

LINEAR EXPONENTIAL

1 1

2 2

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5 16

6 32

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8 128



Quote about Technology

• Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. – Arthur C. Clarke,

• The Future is Already Here - It's Just Not Evenly Distributed – William Gibson



Technologies that affect practice of law

• Cognitive Enhancement• Google Glass• Software-less Computers (LUI)• A. I. • Brain Scans



Case Study 1: Advanced Brain Scanning

• Background Technology:– Using advanced brain scanners (fMRI) mixed with

supercomputers to analyze the raw data, scientists are beginning to be able to recognize the patterns formed in the brain when people think about certain things.

– There is speculation that within 10 years, scientists may be able to build devices that can “read your mind” the way a computer reads a CD-ROM or hard drive

– There is further speculation that is technique could possibly be modified to be done at a distance



Ethics vs. Morals

• Morals is the balance of right versus wrong – usually ascribed as coming from a “higher power”

• Ethics is the balance of right versus right in a tradeoff or case-based process.– Ethics seeks to find the “better good”



Brain Scan Video



Brain Scans: Ethics Questions for Discussion

• Assuming “Mind reading” computers are scientifically proven to work (i.e. better than polygraphs). . .

• Would it be ethical to force someone accused of murder to submit to a brain scan?– Breathalyzer?– Forensic evidence left behind (in their brains)




• Sept 15, 2008• Neuroscientist Champadi Raman Mukundan claims his Brain

Electrical Oscillations Signature test is so accurate, it can tell whether a person committed or only witnessed an act. In June, an Indian judge agreed, using BEOS to find a woman guilty of killing her former fiancé. Scientific experts are calling the decision 'ridiculous' and 'unconscionable,' protesting that Mukundan's work has not even been peer reviewed. How reliable should a test have to be, when eyewitnesses are notoriously fallible? Does a person have a right to privacy over their own memories, or should society's interest in holding criminals accountable come first?"




• If the devices can be made “remote” would it be OK for the TSA to randomly scan passengers walking in the terminal to look for “suspicious thoughts”?

• What if they picked up on a random thought about killing your boss?



Case Study 2: Artificial Intelligence

• Background Technology:– Computer hardware is increasing at an exponential rate.

We are now at the point in The Curve where the next few doublings will bring the number of switches on a chip to equal the number of neurons (i.e. brain cells) that we have in our heads

– Artificial Intelligence (AI) programmers are beginning to understand how the human brain works and are on a exponential curve at replicating many of the functions of the brain (e.g. language recognition, pattern recognition, basic problem solving, etc.)



Linear vs. Exponential – The Curve

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 80

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

LINEAREXPONENTIAL

LINEAR EXPONENTIAL

1 1

2 2

3 4

4 8

5 16

6 32

7 64

8 128



Moore’s Law Applied



Processing Progress• "There is speculation that we may be approaching an

inflection point where the rate of technology advancements is accelerating at an exponential rate, and machines could even overtake humans in their ability to reason, in the not so distant future.“

» Justin Rattner, CTO of Intel (August 2008)» (emphasis added)



The Turing Test• The Turing test is a proposal for a test of a

machine's ability to demonstrate intelligence• A human judge engages in a natural language

conversation with one human and one machine, each of which try to appear human. All participants are placed in isolated locations. If the judge cannot reliably tell the machine from the human, the machine is said to have passed the test



Turing Test



AI: Ethics Questions for Discussion

• Assume an AI passes the Turing test and is indistinguishable from a human as far as intelligence and social interaction.

• What rights would an AI have?• What if it misbehaved . . . Do you have the right

to re-program it if it didn’t want you to?• What if my AI decided to hack another system,

am I liable for any damaged it does, or is it carry responsibility alone?




• Precedents– Argument of the creator– Argument of children– Argument of slaves

• 3/5 argument




• The basic questions regarding AI are fundamental philosophical questions regarding what makes a “person” and highlights the “circle of moral inclusion”– White men– Women– Minorities– Young people– Other sexual orientations– Some animals that show intelligence (don’t kill dolphins!)



What makes a person?

• The Ethics of AI will be decided on whether people feel that “personhood” is a mystical spark or a byproduct of intelligence and/or sentience



Case Study 3: Human Enhancement

• Background Technology:– Medical science is better understanding how to modify

and enhance many systems in the body using either pharmacological agents or bio-mechanical devices

– Up to now, the enhancements have only been to replace broken systems and have not been as good as the original

– Advances in medical science as well as nano-technology (i.e. technology of VERY VERY small things) will improve enhancement in the next 20 years where they may be better than the original



Medical Minor Magic

• Nano-tech enhancements– Enhanced Blood– Artificial white blood cells prevent infection– Enhance bone, skin and muscle with diamonoid

structures– Computers to enhance memory and cognitive

function



Red-Blood Cell UpgradeA respirocyte is an artificial red blood cell. If progress in nanotechnology continues as rapidly as it has for the first decade of the 21st century, we may see respirocytes used in medicine or even recreationally by 2020 or 2030.

The respirocyte would be made out of pure diamond or sapphire. A respirocyte could hold 200 times more oxygen and carbon dioxide than our natural red blood cells. This could allow a person to hold their breath at the bottom of a swimming pool for 4 hours, or let someone sprint at top speed for at least 15 minutes without stopping to breathe.



Designs are already underway



White Blood Cell UpgradeA microbivore is a speculative future device, a micromachine with numerous internal nanomachines, which would function as an artificial white blood cell.

Although a detailed design for a microbivore has been outlined by its inventor, Robert Freitas, we currently lack the means to fabricate it.



Digital Tattoo Interface

This Bluetooth device is permanently implanted beneath the skin. It is flat, flexible, silicon and silicone. Tightly rolled when it's inserted through a small incision, and then unfurled beneath the skin, it lies benignly between skin and muscle.Through the same incision, two small tubes are attached from the implanted device to an artery and a vein. A coin sized blood fuel cell in the implant converts the blood's glucose and oxygen from the artery to the electricity required to power the device. Used blood returns through to the vein. The digital device's power source is the same as for all of the biological components in the body.



Personal Diagnostics



Enhancement: Ethics Questions for Discussion

• Current U.S anti-discrimination laws punish discrimination based on race, gender or ethnic background – NOT on ability. We are supposed to discriminate based on ability!

• Is it therefore discrimination to prefer an augmented human for a job over a non-augmented one?

• What if only augments can get good jobs, get into college, etc?



Case Study 4: Longevity

• Background Technology:• Advances in medical technology and nano-

technology as well as a better understanding of the aging process could GREATLY extend the human life cycle. Some extreme estimates (from credible scientists) say that thousands of years would be possible



Ripples in a pond

• Better medicine– Reduced mortality

• Reduced need for estate planning (or maybe increased need)• Reduced need for life insurance (or maybe increased need)• Effects on Marriages/Divorces• Monarchy/Oligarchy/Life-term positions faces challenges• Social Security Crisis / Retirement Planning• Existential issues – how do you have a meaningful life for 600

years?• Overpopulation



Longevity: Ethics Questions for Discussion

• The Declaration of Independence says there is an inalienable right to life.

• Do we have a right to functional immortality if it becomes available?

• We would have to stop having children to keep population under control – do future generation have the right to be born?

• Are be being too selfish if we keep living at the expense of future generations?



Purpose of this Presentation

• Make you aware of the rapid rate of change in technology (not just the changes in technology)

• Make you think about how rapid change might affect you personally and professionally

• Prepare your mind for the difficult ethical and moral dilemmas that may occur when some technologies become available



Resources

• 35-45 Consulting • Technolawyer• Legal Technology Blogs• Kurzweil AI• Wired Magazine

11011 Richmond, Suite 600 | Houston, Texas 77042 | 713.789.3323 | Technology's Future: Infinity &...

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