Assignment ProblemYou are working for a retailer that sells a lot of breakfast cereals. One of the cereals that you sell is the popular SBT brand. The monthly demand for the previous 24 months is shown in the attached data files:PROBLEM 1.1A You decide to initialize the model by taking the average of the demand of the first 4 time periods.What is the average demand for periods 1 through 4? Answer should be up to two decimal places. Write your answer here:PROBLEM 1.1B Using a basic exponential smoothing model, determine the forecast for consumption in month 25? Assume that the level smoothing parameter, Alpha, is 0.15. Assume initial base for period 4 or forecast for period 5 as shown in the solution for 1.1a.Write your answer here:PROBLEM 1.1C Using the same model, what is the forecast for month 30?Write your answer here:PROBLEM 1.1D What is the MAPE for this forecast through period 24? Write your answer here:PROBLEM 1.2Take the data and chart it so that you can see demand on the y axis and each month on the x axis.What patterns appear to be present in the demand for this product? (Highlight the appropriate choice)a) Only level, it appears to be stationary demandb) A positive trendc) A negative trend d) Seasonality across an entire year with some high months and some low monthse) There is not enough data to even make a guessPROBLEM 1.3A We now want to apply Holts model (level and trend) to the data where alpha = 0.20 and Beta = 0.05. You have initialized over the first four periods and have found that Base for period 4=157.5 and Trend for period 4 = 19.1Now apply Holts model (level and trend) to the data where alpha = 0.20 and Beta = 0.05. What is the forecast for period 5 using these initialized values?Write your answer here:PROBLEM 1.3B Use the value obtained in 1.3A to calculate the forecast for period 6?Write your answer here:PROBLEM 1.3C Calculate the base and trend for each subsequent period and find the forecast for period 25? Write your answer here:PROBLEM 1.3D What is the forecast for period 30 based on the estimated Base and Trend for the period 24?Write your answer here:PROBLEM 1.3E What is the MAPE for this forecast through period 24Write your answer here: PROBLEM 1.4 Which model do you prefer? (Highlight the appropriate choice)a) Simple Exponential Model b) Holt Model with Level and Trend c) They are equal in performanced) There is not enough data to decide