10.17.16 Can Latin America Transition to Low Carbon Energy?
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Can Latin America Transition to Low Carbon Energy? 10.17.16
Transcript of 10.17.16 Can Latin America Transition to Low Carbon Energy?
Can Latin America Transition to Low Carbon Energy?
10.17.16
Scenarios to reach 2C globally
Source: World Resources Institute, 2015,
Climate Analysis Indicators Tool
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
GtC
O2
OTHER TRANSFORMATIONS 6% BUILDINGS 14%
INDUSTRY 23% TRANSPORT 18%
POWER GENERATION 39% 2DS TRAJECTORY
6DS TRAJECTORY
TRANSPORT
POWER GENERATION
*NOTE: Sector percentages represent cumulative contributions to
emissions reductions until 2050 on a 2 degrees warming trajectory
vs a 6 degrees warming trajectory.
The role of transportation and power generation in
CO2 emissions reductions, 2013-2050
Latin America’s contribution to climate
change mitigation In 2013, Latin America and the Caribbean produced 5.25% of world
emissions and accounted for 8.29% of world GDP.
The region produced 3.039 metric tons per capita of CO2 emissions,
compared to a global average of 4.996 metric tons per capita.
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region (million
metric tons), 1990-2012
Source: US Environmental Protection Agency,
International Energy Agency Energy Technology
Perspectives (2016)
Latin America’s commitments in Paris
Evaluation of INDCs/NDCs, according to the Climate Action Tracker:
Inadequate: If all
governments put forward
inadequate positions warming
likely to exceed 3–4°C.
Argentina
Chile
Sufficient: Fully
consistent with below
2°C limit.
Role Model: More than
consistent with below
2°C limit. Currently no
countries in the world in
this category.
Medium: Not consistent with limiting
warming below 2°C as it would
require many other countries to
make a comparably greater effort
and much deeper reductions.
Brazil
Mexico
Peru Costa Rica
Source: Climate Action Tracker
Latin America’s CO2 emissions per
country
Country Contributions to Total LAC Emissions, 2013
Source: The World Bank
26.8%
26.0% 10.1%
9.9%
4.8%
4.4%
3.0%
2.5%
2.3% 1.2%
1.1% 8.1%
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Venezuela
Colombia
Chile
Peru
Trinidad and Tobago
Ecuador
Dominican Republic
Bolivia
Other
Latin America’s CO2 emissions per
sector/source
Regional BAU Emissions Trajectory by Sector, 2010-2050
Source: GEA Scenarios Database,
International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA)
Emissions reduction scenario for LatAm
Aggressive I+ Pathway, 2010-2050
Source: GEA Scenarios Database,
International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis (IIASA)
• Stop net deforestation by
2020, no net emissions
from land-use change by
2030, net accumulation of
carbon sinks to 2050
• 50% cut in ag emissions
• Abate final energy
demand by 40% through
bulk improvements in
energy efficiency
• Reverse carbonization of
power matrix to achieve
90% zero-carbon
installed capacity
• Widespread electrification
of transport sector.
Electricity in Latin America
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
MEXICO COLOMBIA BRAZIL CHILE
SOLAR
WIND
GEOTHERMAL
BIOMASS & WASTE
SMALL HYDROELECTRIC
NUCLEAR
LARGE HYDROELECTRIC
NATURAL GAS
COAL
OIL & DIESEL
Installed Capacity by Generation Source, 2015
Source: Bloomberg
Climatescope 2015
Latin America’s per capita emissions are low compared to other regions because of heavy reliance on hydropower.
Electricity demand growth
Source: Enerdata Yearbook, EIA
Annual Energy Outlook 2014
LatAm electricity consumption, GDP, 1990-2015
Unlike in developed countries, where electricity demand growth is
decoupled from economic growth, in LatAm, electricity demand growth
matches or surpasses GDP growth, due to expanding electrification,
inadequate EE measures and demand from energy-intensive industries.
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400
600
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1,000
1,200
1,400Latin America domesticelectricity consumption (TWh)
Latin America GDP (trillionsUSD)
US electricity use, GDP, 1950-2040
Growth in emissions from electricity
25%
8%
20%
3% 4%
33%
4% 3% 0%
2000
16%
9%
30% 7% 4%
28%
4%
0%
2%
2012
OIL PRODUCTS
COAL
NATURAL GAS
BIOFUELS & WASTE
GEOTHERMAL
HYDRO
NUCLEAR
SOLAR & WIND
IMPORTS
Electricity Matrix in Latin America, 2000, 2012
Source: Inter-American
Development Bank Energy
Database
Hydropower has become less reliable in Latin America.
Several countries are expanding natural gas-fired power to meet
demand growth.
This would lock in long-term fossil fuels. Though it can reduce short
term emissions, it becomes more difficult to reach long-term goals.
Transport in Latin America
Oil Consumption in Latin America and the Caribbean
(thousand b/d), 2003-2013
Sources: BP Statistical Review
of World Energy 2013 and
Joint Organizations Data
Initiative (JODI) Data
Similarly, in the transport sector, many governments are prioritizing
NGVs and fuel efficiency over EVs. This will reduce short-term
emissions, but lock in fossil-fuel transport for decades. To meet long
term climate goals, countries need to move to zero emissions and build
new infrastructure systems.
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10000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Recommendations to Promote EVs
• Expand pilot programs for high-use electric vehicles, which have
significant environmental benefits while demonstrating the
effectiveness of EV technology to build public confidence.
• Introduce stronger financial incentives, such as tax reductions for
EVs and home charging infrastructure purchases, to reduce high
up-front costs and make EVs more competitive with conventional
vehicles.
• Increase non-financial incentives, such as access to preferential
parking and driving lanes, and strengthen fuel economy standards
to give car manufacturers incentives to invest in EV technology.
• Include EVs in broader long-term plans for the energy and transport
sectors and introduce EV targets in climate change mitigation goals.
