1.0 Problem Statement.editted

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Module 1.0: Problem Statement

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Module 1.0: Problem Statement2

1.1 Population growth

1.1.1 Population Growth

1.1.2 Projections of Population Size

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1.1.1 Population Growth

Figure: (BS 2009)

(Public domain)

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1.1.2 Projections of Population Size

Figure: (Conscious 2007) (CC BY-SA 3.0)

Estimates of the Earths carrying capacity for humans

Limits to food production:

Water Arable Land Phosphorus

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1.2 Ceilings to population

1.2.1 Malthus Arguments

1.2.2 Trajectory of Water Use

1.2.3 Diet and Food Requirements

1.2.4 Per Capita Water Use

1.2.5 Water Resource Distribution

1.2.6 Climate and Water Security

1.2.7 Prosperity, Diet and Water Demands

1.2.8 Arable Land

1.2.9 Changes in Land Use

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1.2 Ceilings to population

1.2.10 Losses of Arable Land

1.2.11 Net Changes in Arable Land

1.2.12 Calculations of Carrying Capacity: Water

1.2.13 Educational Factors

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Malthus noticed that food production increased

arithmetically, whereas population size

increased geometrically and predicted human

population to soon reach a ceiling

He was wrong

Thomas Malthus

An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)

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The development of synthetic fertilizer lead to a high increase in the agricultural

yield:

0.24 % year-1 increase in agricultural land

vs.

2.2% year-1 increase in agricultural production

Malthus arguments were correct, but he could not anticipate technological developments

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1.2.2 Trajectory of Water Use

Figure: (Dll, Fiedler &

Zhang 2009, figure 1b,

p. 2417) (CC BY 3.0)

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1.2.3 Diet and Food Requirements

Subsistence diet: 1m3/cap day

Vegetarian diet: 2.6 m3/cap day

USA diet: 5m3/cap day

1.17m3 of water per 1kg of grain

2kg grain 1kg fish

2kg grain 1kg poultry

4kg grain 1kg pork

7kg grain 1kg beef

(8,000L water to grow 1kg beef)

Image: (Sybarite48 2012) (CC BY 2.0)

Image: (Weller 2002)

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1.2.4 Per Capita Water Use

Per capita water use increased almost 10 fold along the 20th Century

Figure: (Bice n.d., figure 6.3)

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1.2.5 Water Resource Distribution

Uneven distribution (23 to 29,000 m3 year-1 person-1) & consumption of water

Figure: (World Health Organization 1997, figure

3.5, p. 12) (Reproduced with the permission of

the publisher)

Figure: (Rekacewicz & United Nations Environment Programme/GRID-Arendal 2000)

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1.2.6 Climate and Water Security

Figure: (Dll n.d.)

(CC BY-SA 3.0)

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Figure: (Trostle & Seeley 2013)

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Forecasted 10 % increase in calorie intake

Middle East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Latin America & the Caribbean

East Asia

South Asia

Data source: World Health Organization

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

1964-96 1997-99 2030

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1.2.8 Arable Land

Figure: (Global

Education Project

n.d.)

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Image: (Peduzzi

& United Nations

Environnent

Programme n.d.)

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Figure: (Hooke, Martin-Duque & Pedraza 2012, figure 2)

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1.2.10 Losses of Arable Land

Figure: (United States

Department of

Agriculture, Natural

Resources Conservation

Service 1998)

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1.2.11 Net Changes in Arable Land

New arable land, from conversion of tropical forests, do not compensate losses,

so there is a gross decline in global arable land.

Data source: Food and

Agriculture Organization

(2012)

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Renewable freshwater ~ 40,000 Km3 yr-1

Available freshwater ~ 9,000 - 14,000 Km3 yr-1

Per capita water use ~ 900 m3 person-1 yr-1

Maximum population that can be supported ~ 8,000 - 12,000 million

Source: (Cohen 1995; Food and Agriculture Organization 2006)

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Calculations above are upper estimates as:

Assumes water and people to be evenly distributed in the world.

Assumes all water to be available for food production (e.g. industrial use increasing rapidly).

Assumes minimum dietary requirements.

Does not account for oscillations in resources, such as those derived from droughts, climate change, etc.

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1.2.13 Educational Factors

The following factors have been shown to modulate human population growth:

Place of residence: urban (lower growth) vs. rural. Population in cities

exceeded that in rural areas globally, for the first time, in 2011.

Education: on average lower growth rate with higher education (the

relationship between female education and fertility is particularly strong).

Projections onto the second half of the 21st Century are strongly modulated

by these factors, but higher education and urban areas are associated with a

greater consumption of resources.

Source: (Lutz & Samir 2010)

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1.3 Collapses

1.3.1 Introduction

1.3.2 Mesopotamia

1.3.3 Mayan Civilization Collapse

1.3.4 Rapa Nui

1.3.5 Regional Change in the Roman Empire

1.3.6 Historians of Global Change

1.3.7 The Vulnerability of Complex Societies

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1.3.1 Introduction

The ceilings to population growth we are approaching at the global scale have been experienced in the past in specific regions, sometimes with

devastating consequences for entire civilizations.

An examination of past collapses can illustrate how the depletion of natural resources lead to vulnerabilities that can generate instability in societies.

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1.3.2 Mesopotamia

The Sumerian civilization disappeared 4,000 years ago.

Cuneiform tables document deforestation, soil salinization, limited water supply and overpopulation, conducive to famine were recorded as being the

drivers of the collapse of the Sumerian civilization, the first documented

example of the impact of resource supply on the collapse of a civilization.

(Ehrlich & Ehrlich 2004)

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1.3.3 Mayan Civilisation Collapse

(Peterson & Haug 2005); Image: (Trrissen 2010)

Evidence suggests

some Mayan reservoirs

only held enough water

for 18 months. Limited

water supply together

with high population

density rendered the

Mayan civilization highly

vulnerable to drought

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1.3.3 Mayan Civilisation Collapse

Figure: Haug, GH, Gunther, D, Peterson, LC,

Sigman, DM, Hughen, KA & Aeschlimann, B

2003, 'Climate and the collapse of Maya

civilization,' Science, vol. 299, no. 5613, pp.

1731 1735. Reprinted with permission from AAAS.

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1.3.4 Rapa Nui

People kept cutting down the trees faster than they could regenerate. (Diamond 1995)

Introduced rats contributed to the decline:

Their population grew to 2-3million within a few years.

Ate the seeds of the Jubaea tree (abundant forest) reducing its recruitment unable to regenerate with deforestation pressure as well

Rats may also have predated sea birds, small mammals and other plants on the island

Image: (Dubouis 2007)

(Hunt 2007)

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Early reports of changes due to excessive resource use in the Mediterranean

Historic Reports: (Herodoto, Polybos, Julius Caesarm Sallust, Strabo, Livio, Tcito, etc.) report on a wet climate, more rainy in summer and with lush

vegetation in N. Africa.

Reports on agricultural practices and yield: (Cato the Elder, Varro, Columella)

Reports on natural history, fauna and flora (Teophrastos, Plinio el Viejo, Ptolomaeus)

Archaelogic evidence (Leptis Magna, Cathago, Thugga, Cuicul, Cyrenaica, Palmyra, Heliopolis, Bridges, aqueducts, etc.).

Population size and distribution.

(Reale & Dirmeyer 2000)

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Early climate change in the Mediterranean

Baths, bridges, etc., were present in Roman cities in the middle East (e.g Palmyra city, Syrian desert) where there is no water at present, but was

according to Roman historians a prosperous and fertile region.

Information on the presence of forests, elephants and other animals that is indicative of a much smaller Saharan desert than present.

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Evidence of a humid climate, associated with lush vegetation in the Mediterranean basin, particularly in N. Africa.

Evidence for major changes in land use (deforestation, intensive agriculture, etc.) associated with rapid population growth that led to desertification

Political crises and abandoned cities.

Conclusion: Large-scale land degradation lead to regional climate change

with important socio-economic consequences in the region.

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1.3.6 Historians of Global Change

The reasons why some past societies have gone and some remain.

Sociocultural and economic changes are multidimensional but are essentially linked

to environmental issues.

Ecological Determinism

Ecological disasters can eliminate civilizations

Image: (Aude 2007) (CC BY-SA 2.5)

Jared Diamond

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1.3.7 The Vulnerability of Complex Societies

The relations between the complexity and the collapse

The ability to deal with social problems is related to the increasing complexity of institutions. The

collapse of societies is to a large extent a

consequence of their growing complexity.

The industrial and technological advances were made at the expense of increased complexity

rendering societies vulnerable to disruptions.

Joseph Tainter

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1.4 Resource use

1.4.1 Resource Use

1.4.2 Mineral Resources

1.4.3 Synthetic Chemicals

1.4.4 Fertilizer

1.4.5 Total World Oil Production

1.4.6 Paper Consumption

1.4.7 Food Production

1.4.8 Plastic Production

1.4.9 Human Footprint

1.4.10 Global Trajectory

1.4.11 Global Distribution

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1.4.1 Resource Use

The use of resources by humanity is dependent on population size, per capita

resource use and the accessibility of resources.

All of these have increased since the industrial revolution, and technological

developments are rendered resources that could not be accessed to be now

available.

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1.4.2 Mineral Resources

Figure: (World Steel

Association 2012)

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1.4.4 Fertilizer

Projections of fertiliser consumption

Figure: (European Environment Agency 2007)

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1.4.5 Food Production

Figure: (Lbeaumont 2011)

(CC BY-SA 3.0)

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1.4.6 Plastic Production

Figure: (Minihaa 2013)

(CC BY-SA 3.0)

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The amount of material consumed by a person (tonnes per year) is divided by the yield of the

land or sea area (annual tonnes per hectare)

from which it was harvested, or where its waste

material was absorbed. The resultant number of

hectares are then converted to global hectares.

The sum of the global hectares needed to

support the resource consumption and absorb

their CO2 emissions is that person's Ecological

Footprint.

Image: (Environmental Protection

Agency n.d.)

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Our production and consumption is limited by the Earths resources and its ability to absorb our waste.

An ecological (or human) footprint is a measure of how sustainable our activities are.

In 2010, humanity needed 1.5 Planet Earths accommodate our lifestyles. We were consuming

resources at 1.5 times the rate the Earth could

absorb our waste & replenish its resources.

Image: (Environmental Protection

Agency n.d.)

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1.4.8 Global Trajectory

Good < 1.78

Middling 1.78 - 3.56

Poor 3.56 - 7.12

Deep red > 7.12

Figure: (New Economics Foundation

2012)

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1.4.9 Global Distribution

Figure: (Harich 2011)

(CC BY-SA 3.0)

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1.5 Global change

1.5.1 Global Change

1.5.2 Drivers

1.5.3 Greenhouse Gases

1.5.4 Global Contaminant Distributions

1.5.5 Growth in Mercury Pollution

1.5.6 Ozone Layer

1.5.7 Extinction Rates

1.5.8 Nitrogen Cycling

1.5.9 Water Cycling

1.5.10 Annual Food Price Indices

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1.5.1 Global Change

Impact of human activity on the processes that govern the functioning of the Earth System.

The term Change refers to the fact that the regulation of the functioning of the Earth System has now changed due to the introduction of control

mechanisms technology that simply did not exist over most of the Earths history (e.g. CFCs and Ozone; Haber reaction and the N cycle, etc.).

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1.5.2 Drivers

Global change is a consequence of increased resource use, which is, in turn, driven by the product of the increase in population size and the increase in

per capita consumption, each increased by about 5 to 10 fold over the 20th

Century.

The result is a double exponential growth in resource use.

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1.5.3 Greenhouse Gases

Figure: (Forster et al. 2007,

FAQ 2.1, figure 1, p. 135)

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1.5.4 Global Contaminant Distributions

Figure: (U.N.

Environnent

Programme 2013,

p. 11)

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1.5.5 Growth in Mercury Pollution

Figure: (United Nations

Environment Programme

2013, p. 29)

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1.5.6 Ozone Layer

Figure: (National

Oceanic and

Atmospheric

Administration

2006)

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1.5.7 Extinction Rates

Currently several million populations and 3,00030,000 species go extinct annually. Probably at least 250,000 species went extinct in the last century, and

1020 times that many are expected to disappear this century. Current extinction rates are 50500 times background and are increasing.

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1.5.8 Nitrogen Cycling

Projections of fertiliser consumption

Figure: (European Environment Agency 2007)

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1.5.9 Water Cycling

Figure: (United Nations

Environment Programme

2008)

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1.5.10 Annual Food Price Indices

Figure: (Jashuah 2012)

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References

Cohen, JE 1995, How many people can the Earth support? Norton, New York.

Diamond, J 1995, Easters end, Discover, vol. 16, no. 8, pp. 62 - 69.

Ehrlich, PR & Ehrlich, AH 2004. One with Nineveh: politics, consumption, and the human future. Island Press, Washington.

Food and Agriculture Organization 2006, State of world aquaculture, FAO fisheries technical paper no. 500. Available from: . [15 April 2014].

Hunt, TL 2007, Rethinking Easter Islands ecological catastrophe, Journal of Archaeological Science, vol. 34, no. 3, pp. 485-502.

Lutz, W & Samir, KC 2010, Dimensions of global population projection: what do we know about future population trends and structures, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, vol. 365, pp. 2779-2791. Available from:

. [15 April 2014].

Reale, O & Dirmeyer P 2000, Modeling the effects of vegetation on Mediterranean climate during the Roman Classical Period: part I: climate history and model sensitivity, Global and Planetary Change, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 163-184.

Woodruff, DS 2001, Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 98, no. 10, pp. 5471-5479. Available from: . [15 April 2014].

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Figures & Images

Aude 2007, Jared Diamond. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [29 March 2014].

Bice, D n.d., Human water use during this century [figure] in Exploring the dynamics of earth systems modelling the hydrosphere. Available from: . [10 January 2014]. Used

with permission.

BS 2009, People of the world - from 1000 AD to the present day. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [29 March 2014]. Public domain.

Collapse: how societies choose to fail or succeed [book cover] 2005, Penguin, London. Used with permission from the publisher.

Collapse of complex civilizations [book cover], 1998, Cambridge, Melbourne. Used with permission from the publisher.

Conscious 2007, World population (UN). Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [29 March 2014].

Dll, P, Fieldler, K & Zhang, J 2009, 'Global-scale analysis of river flow alterations due to water withdrawals and reservoirs', Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 13, pp. 2413-2432. Available from: . [29 March 2014].

Dll, P n.d., Water stress around 2000 A.D. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [29 March 2014].

Dubouis, S 2007, Easter Island. Available from: Flickr . [4 February 2014].

Environmental Protection Agency n.d., Environmental footprint analysis. Available from: . [15 April 2014].

Food and Agriculture Organization 2012, The world's arable land 1961 2009 [data], FAOSTAT. Available from: . [21 January 2013].

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Figures & Images

Forster, P, Ramaswamy, V, Artaxo, P et al. 2007, 'Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing' in Climate change 2007: the physical science basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change), eds S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning et al., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 129-234. Available from:

. [11 April 2014].

Global Education Project n.d., Arable land and population. Available from: . [29 March 2014].

Harich, J 2011, Ecological footprint graph with five major events. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [4 April 2014].

Haug, GH, Gunther, D, Peterson, LC, Sigman, DM, Hughen, KA & Aeschlimann, B 2003, 'Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization, Science, vol. 299, no. 5613, pp. 1731 1735.

Hooke, RL, Martin-Duque, JF & Pedraza, J 2012, 'Land transformation by humans: a review', GSA Today, vol. 22, no. 12, pp. 4-10. Available from: The Geological Society of America .

[21 January 2014].

Jashuah 2012, FAO food price index. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [11 April 2014].

European Environment Agency 2007, Projections of fertiliser consumption. Available from: . [5 February 2014].

Joseph Tainter [image], n.d. Available from: . Used with permission.

Lbeaumont 2011, World grain production. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [29 March 2014].

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Figures & Images

Minihaa 2013, Plastics production. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [29 March 2014].

New Economics Foundation 2012, Ecological footprint [figure] in The Happy Planet Index: 2012 Report, NEF, London. Available from . [7 April 2014]. Data are from the Global Footprint Network (2012) National Footprint Accounts

2011 edition.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2006, NOAA Antartic ozone depletion gas index (ODGI-A) [figure] in New online index provides information to public on ozone hole recovery. Available from: . [11

April 2014].

Peduzzi, P & United Nations Environment Programme n.d., Zone agricole dAlmeria (Espagne). Available from: GRID-Arendal . [8 March

2014].

Rekacewicz, P & United Nations Environment Programme/GRID-Arendal 2000, 'People and ecosystems: the fraying web of life', World Resources Institute (WRI), Washington D.C. Available from: . [10 January 2014].

Sybarite48 (Jolivet, D) 2012, Thse-la-Romaine (Loir-et-Cher). Available from: Flickr . [4 February 2013].

Thomas Robert Malthus, 2005. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [29 March 2014]. Public domain.

Trrissen, BC 2010, Tikal Plaza and North Acropolis. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [29 March 2014].

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Figures & Images

Trostle, R & Seeley, R 2013, Per capita meat consumption and income [figure] in Developing countries dominate world demand for agricultural products. Available from: United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service

. [29 March 2014].

United Nations Environment Programme 2008, Water use and management [figure] in Trends in global water use by sector. Available from: . [5 April 2013].

United Nations Environment Programme 2013, Global distribution of anthropogenic mercury emissions to air in 2010 [figure] in Global mercury assessment 2013: sources, emissions, releases and environmental transport. Available from:

. [23 March 2014].

United Nations Environment Programme 2013, Historical mercury concentrations as a % of present day [figure] in Global mercury assessment 2013: sources, emissions, releases and environmental transport. Available from:

. [23 March 2014].

United States Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service 1998, Global desertification vulnerability map. Available from: . [29 March 2014].

Weller, K 2002, Cow female black white. Available from: Wikimedia Commons . [21 March 2013]. Public domain.

World Health Organization 1997, Health and environment in sustainable development: five years after the Earth Summit: executive summary, WHO, Switzerland. Available from: . [19 March

2014]. Used with permission.

World Steel Association 2012, Apparent crude steel use in 1950-2010. Available from: . [16 April 2014].

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