1 „WHAT DO WE THINK ABOUT THE LAW?”- „LAW AND SOCIETY” A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE RESULTS OF...

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„WHAT DO WE THINK ABOUT THE LAW?”-

„LAW AND SOCIETY”

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE RESULTS OF TWO PIECES OF SOCIAL

PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCH2010/2011

László Kelemen

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A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE RESULTS OF TWO SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCHES

Topics to be covered:•Introduction

•Limits of comparison and possible methods of analysis

•Methodology

•Analysis of research findings

•Conclusion and summary

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Introduction

1. In 2010 and 2011 there were two different social-psychology pieces of research in Hungary. These surveys were done by a 1000-1000 representative sample of people completing questionnaires. The representative sample of 2010 was supplemented by a subsample of a group of 100 randomly selected lawyers.

2. The items of a few scales of the survey in 2010 were the same, or just slightly differred from the scales of the survey in 2011.

3. In the spring of 2010, the parliamentary elections in Hungary were held, right between the two surveys, the results of which could make a quasi social-psychologically experimental situation. We could measure the impact of the results of the elections - deemed as an independent variable – by comparing the results of the two years.


*

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•Two studies:•2010 - „What do we think about the law?”• 1000 subject representative sample and 100 subject

lawyer sample (own survey)

•2011 - „Law and Society”• 1000 subject representative sample (a survey of the

common research group of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Eötvös Loránd University Faculty of Education and Psychology)


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What do we think about the

law?

The crest of Eötvös Loránd

University


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Limits of comparison and possible methods of analysis

Attention should be paid to the fact that the comparison of findings should be done from different angles in order to rule out unreal changes during data analysis:1. Although both of the samples were representative, the survey was not done on the same sample.2. Approximately 1/3 part of the scales of the surveys were the same, or substantively had a slight difference, but the other scales and statements of the questionnaire measured other social-psychological behaviour.3. The interpretation of changing political party preference enables the drawing of conclusions regarding the reasons for change - the only factual element at this point is change itself. As the research was not based on panels - in other words, varying people were asked – accurate information is not available concerning any possible relationship between changes that occur in given voting groups.

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Methodology

1. During the two research studies, similar statements were measured by different scales, so a simple comparison of diffusions would not be the tool for analyzing changes in attitudes between the dates in question. In order to track the occurred changes during the interval between the surveys, the average of the scales needed to be contrasted.2. I formatted the similar content of the two surveys to a four-level Likert-scale. The scores of the items on the four-level scale – on the ground of the two databases – I summarized separately, and then I counted the avereges of the scales. So, I did not compare the answers of the items, but rather the average measures of the two scales.


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3. This method made it possible to analyze the change of scales and variables responsible for the alteration. Political party preferences played a highly significant role since the parliamentary elections were held between the two pieces of research.

4. Changes, or on the contrary, fixedness in the medians of responses on the scales reveal modifications of given subjects; therefore, I am able to draw conclusions regarding those.

5. For the analytic process, I used the SPSS software’s COMPARE MEANS and ANOVA (variance-analysis) commands. The program runs an F-test in both cases, so in light of the results it can be determined whether the change of survey data of the research (2010, 2011) is significant or not. In addition, the question of whether the impact of political party preferences or any other independent variable is significant or not can also be answered.A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE RESULTS OF TWO SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGICAL RESEARCHES

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6. From the point of view of our investigation, a significant change of the background variables is possible to conclude if the 2-Way ANOVA analysis comes up with an interaction of variables, since we want to contrast the findings of two surveys. The ETA2 value tells the strength of the impact of change.


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Celebrating conservatives and

…sad socialdemocrats on 25th April 2010.

Political party preference


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Political party preference


34%

10%12%

3% 3%

39%

24%

11%8%

2% 1%

55%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Fidesz-KDNP MSZP Jobbik LMP other uncertain

2010 2011

*conservatives ; socialdemocrats ; radicals; greens

*In 2010 Fidesz-KDNP won the elections against MSZP, the party that governed the country for 8 years before.

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Timosenko, Ramil Safirov, Pussy Riot:Failures of jurisdiction?

Scale of Satisfaction with Jurisdiction


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Scale of Satisfaction with Jurisdiction („At court everybody is equal.” „Jurisdiction is independent from politics.” )

1,33

1,26

1,58

1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00

2011 representative

2010 representative

2010 lawyer


unsatisfied satisfied

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2010 representative 2011 representative

satisfiedunsatisfied satisfiedunsatisfied

*After the elecitons in 2010, significant postive change was measured among Fidesz voters.

Scale of Satisfaction with Jurisdiction – among the voters of the Hungarian

political parties

1,27

1,19

1,32

1,20

1,30

1,25

1,26

1,00 1,25 1,50 1,75 2,00

uncertain

other

LMP

Jobbik

MSZP

Fidesz

Total asked

1,33

1,23

1,35

1,24

1,30

1,38

1,33

1,00 1,25 1,50 1,75 2,00

uncertain

other

LMP

Jobbik

MSZP

Fidesz

Total asked

* *


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Man protesting against police brutality on the 23rd October 2006 on the streets of Budapest

London in flames: people commiting ason on the streets - August 2011

Attitude towards Public Security


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Attitude towards Public Security(„To what extend do you worry about becoming a victim of crime?”)

2,65

2,59

2,25

1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00 2,20 2,40 2,60 2,80 3,00

2011 representative

2010 representative

2010 lawyer


lower grade of fear higher grade of fear

*

* The party preference has not had a significant impact.

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Deterrent march of racist paramilitary organizations

(Devecser, Hungary 5th August 2012) against „gypsy crime”.

Scale of Crime Prevention

Integrated school. Society has to choose.


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Scale of Crime Prevention

1,65

1,85

1,86

1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00

2011 representative

2010 representative

2010 lawyer


(„Less crime would occur if more closed communities existed.”)

less efficient way more efficient way against crime

*

* The party preference has not had a significant impact.

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Subscale of Crime Prevention – Social Efforts („Crime rate would drop if - unemployment rates decreased, if – communities were more unified.”)

1,58

1,84

1,85

1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00

2011 representative

2010 representative

2010 lawyer



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Subscale of Crime Prevention - Deterrent(„Crime rates would drop if – schools applied more discipline , if verdicts were more severe.”)

1,72

1,85

1,87

1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00

2011 representative

2010 representative

2010 lawyer



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Kind-hearted and innocent John Coffey can not return. The luck: it is just a movie: Green Mile; Directed by Frank Darabont, 1999.

Should capital punishment be restored?

Sacco and Vanzetti were executed in the USA because of a legal error in 1927. That was not a movie. These errors are unforgivable.


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Should capital punishment be restored?

1,64

1,67

1,46

1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00

2011 representative

2010 representative

2010 lawyer


reject support

* The party preference has not had a signficant impact.

*

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Scale of System Justification Theory and Scale of System Critisism(Jost, Banaji 1994; Van der Toorn, Berkes, Jost, 2010)

(„Hungarian society is fairly righteous.” „Hungarian society needs radical change.”)

2,01

2,00

2,27

1,00 1,20 1,40 1,60 1,80 2,00 2,20 2,40 2,60 2,80 3,00

2011 representative

2010 representative

2010 lawyer


insignificant

system criticism system justification

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Personal Subscale of the Belief in a Just World (Lerner, Miller 1978; Jose, Brewer, 1984; Sorrentino, Hardy, 1974; Hunt, 2000)

(„Important decisions concerning meare usually righteous.” „I get what I deserve in general.”)

2,35

2,52

3,08

2,00 2,20 2,40 2,60 2,80 3,00 3,20 3,40 3,60 3,80 4,00

2011 representative

2010 representative

2010 lawyer


negative positive

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* There is a signicifcant decrease of belief among the voters, whose parties lost the elections.

Personal Subscale of the Belief in a Just World – among the voters of the Hungarian

political parties

negative

positive

negative

positive


2,25

2,22

2,32

2,30

2,40

2,57

2,35

1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00

uncertain

other

LMP*

Jobbik*

MSZP*

Fidesz

Total asked

2,50

2,42

2,50

2,60

2,50

2,52

2,52

1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00

uncertain

other

LMP

Jobbik

MSZP

Fidesz

Total asked

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General Subscale of the Belief in a Just World(„The world is basically a righteous place.” „Broadly speaking, people get what they deserve.”)

2,26

2,35

2,68

2,00 2,20 2,40 2,60 2,80 3,00

2011 representative

2010 representative

2010 lawyer


negative

positive

27

2,38

2,16

2,41

2,21

2,39

2,37

2,35

1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00

uncertain

other

LMP

Jobbik

MSZP

Fidesz

Total asked

2,16

2,07

2,32

2,13

2,34

2,49

2,26

1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00

uncertain

other

LMP

Jobbik

MSZP

Fidesz

Total asked


positivenegative positivenegative

*

* The general subscale’s measure of just world belief is higher among the voters of the winner - FIDESZ.

General Subscale of the Belief in a Just World – among the voters of the Hungarian political

parties


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SCALE CHANGE 2010 2011

Attitude towards Public Security

Zero changeMost people are afraid of becoming a victim of crime.

Just like in 2010, most people are afraid of becoming a victim of crime

Restoration of Capital

PunishmentZero change

Two thirds of respondents support the restoration of capital punishment.

Two thirds of respondents support the restoration of capital punishment.

System Justification or

CriticismZero change

The present Hungarian social setting is generally seen negatively.

Criticism towards Hungarian society is still strong. Uncertainty in society is significant.

Satisfaction with Jurisdiction

Positive tendency

Hungarien society sees the workings of jurisdiction negatively. People question its independence from politics and they think that the system shows favor towards influential citizens. Litigation is usually believed to be useless.

Positive tendency can be observed concerning this attitude pattern; however, it only feeds on the positive attitude change of FIDESZ voters.

Despite the positive change, the general picture is still negative. The majority of people are still sceptical about jurisdiction.

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SCALE CHANGE 2010 2011

Crime Prevention

Negative tendency

Hungarian society understands prevention (stricter school discipline, more unified communities) as the most important tool for reducing crime.

Belief in alternatives for crime prevention significantly decreased. In 2010, overwhelming majority of the people thought that the crime prevention strategies are needed and useful. In 2011, consentient and disagreeing opinions equally occupied people’s mind. It is a general social trend since disappointment can be seen in all social layers.

Belief in a Just World

Negative tendency

Hungarian society is pessimistic. Generally speaking, Hungarian people think that the world is unjust. But respondents see their own lifes as quite righteous and they consider their actions justified.

Both investigated subscales revealed that people see the world as rather unfair. Only FIDESZ voters think that the world is becoming a better place, their attitude patterns positively changed. However, it can not balance the negativity the rest of society perceives.

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Thank you for your

attention!

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