1 Thursday 28 th April 2011 Thailand’s Energy Situation Sompop Pattanariyankool Office of the...
-
Upload
melina-wilson -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
0
Transcript of 1 Thursday 28 th April 2011 Thailand’s Energy Situation Sompop Pattanariyankool Office of the...
1Thursday 28th April 2011
Thailand’s Energy Situation
Sompop Pattanariyankool
Office of the Permanent Secretary
Ministry of Energy
Content
1. Thailand’s Energy Demand
2. Thailand’s Energy Supply
3. Magic numbers
Outline of today presentation
Content
1. Thailand’s Energy Demand
2. Thailand’s Energy Supply
3. Magic numbers
Outline of today presentation
4
Primary vs. Final energy consumption
*Source: IEA Statistics Manual
5
Primary Commercial Energy Consumption
Unit : KBD crude oil equivalent
2007
200
8 20092010
201
1*
Total Consumption 1,604 1,618 1,663 1783 1851
- Oil 667 634 643 652 686
- Natural Gas 615 648 682 784 799
- Imported Coal 180 199 205 211 213
- Domestic Lignite 99 101 98 98 108
- Hydro/Imported Elec. 43 36 35 36 45
Growth Rate (%)
Total Consumption 38 09. 2.8 72. 56.
- Oil -1.0 -5.0 1.4 15. 19.
- Natural Gas 6.2 54. 5.2 150. 86.
- Imported Coal 285. 10.6 2.9 31. 13.
- Domestic Lignite -78. 2.4 -3.4 04. 124.
- Hydro/Imported Elec. -2.5 -17.4 -1.1 28. 187.
*Jan - Feb
6
2%
37%43%
18%
OilNatural
Gas
Hydro/Imported Elec.Coal/Lignite
Primary Commercial Energy Consumption 2010 1.78 million barrel of crude oil equivalent (BOE)/day
7
Final Commercial Energy Consumption*
Source: www.eppo.go.th
2006200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1*
Total Consumption
1,040 1,088 1,098 1,133 1,191 1,222
- Oil 638 652 629 640 650 684
- Natural Gas 59 74 87 106 123 135
- Imported Coal 91 108 125 131 138 133
- Domestic Lignite
29 21 20 20 19 21
- Electricity 223 233 236 237 262 249
Growth Rate (%)
Total Consumption
-0.6 46. 0 .9 32. 51. 2.8
- Oil -2.5 2.2 -3.5 18 14. 1.8
- Natural Gas 7.1 24.5 18.1 211. 168. 11.7
- Imported Coal 119. 193. 156. 44. 54. 2.5
- Domestic Lignite
-32.2 -28.9 -1.9 -3.6 -26. 11.9
- Electricity 4.5 4.5 1.3 0.3 104. 0.7
GDP (%) 5.1 4.9 25. -23. 78.
Unit : KBD crude oil equivalent
*Jan - Feb
8
Final Commercial Energy Consumption 2010 1.19 million barrel of crude oil equivalent (BOE)/day
22%
10%
13%
55%
OilCoal/lignite
Natural Gas
Electricity
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
9
Final Commercial Energy Consumption by Sector
*Source: www.dede.go.th
Agriculture5%
Industry36%
Residential16%
Commercial8%
Transportation35%
10
Petroleum Product Consumption 2010
Petroleum product Million litre/day
Gasohol 120.
Gasoline 8.3
Diesel 506
Fuel oil 72.
LPG and NGV
LPG (million kg./day) 150.
NGV (million cubic feet/day) 2100.
7
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
11
Natural Gas Consumption
Consumption Share
Sector200
6
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11*
Power Generation 2,257 2,346 2,423 2,435 2,728 2,446
GSP 527 572 583 599 652 850
Industry 291 347 361 387 478 493
Automobile (NGV) 11 24 77 143 181 218
Total 3,086 3,288 3,444 3,564 4,039 4,006
Sector20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11*
Power Generation 73 71 70 68 68 61
GSP 17 17 17 17 16 21
Industry 9 11 11 11 12 12
Automobile (NGV) 0.4 1 2 4 4 6
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100
Unit: MMSCFD
Unit: %
*Jan - Feb
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
Electricity Consumption
- 12 -
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2005
20062007
2008
2009
2010
GW
H
2011
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
13
Electricity consumption by sector
Sector 2008 2009 2010 Share (%)
2010
Residential 28,692 30,258 33,214 2233
Commercial 33,116 32,634 35,980 2419. %
Industry 60,057 59,402 65,957 4435. %
Agriculture 288 316 335 023. %
Others 12,259 12,183 13,223 889. %
Total 134,412 134,793 148,709
Unit: GWh
Source: www.eppo.go.th
14
Energy and Economy
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2524
2525
2526
2527
2528
2529
2530
2531
2532
2533
2534
2535
2536
2537
2538
2539
2540
2541
2542
2543
2544
2545
2546
2547
2548
2549
2550
2551
2552
2553
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Final commercial energy consumption (Kilo ton of crude oil equivalent)
Ktoe, milion kWh Billion Baht
Gross Domestic Produce (Billion baht)
Electricity Consumption (Million kWh)
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
Content
1. Thailand’s Energy Demand
2. Thailand’s Energy Supply
3. Magic numbers
Outline of today presentation
16
Energy supply and transformation
*Source: IEA Statistics Manual
17
Crude Oil Supply Oil import accounted for 85% of supply in 2010
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Benjamas 50,004 42,132 44,960 29,067 26,665 26,998
Sirikit 18,775 20,511 20,942 21,324 21,808 19,652
Tantawan 8,296 7,703 6,505 6,196 3,860 4,822
Unocal (Big Oil Project) 38,679 39,215 35,559 33,766 36,998 28,853
Jusmin 8,649 19,267 18,292 13,637 13,868 12,859
Bualaung - - 3,324 8,916 8,327 6,529
Songkha - - 287 5,063 7 ,926 8,023
Lanta - - - 5,319 7,019 3,453
Others 4,547 5,735 14,066 30,753 26,703 24,637
Total Domestic Prod. 128,950 134,563 143,935 154,041 153,174 135,826
Import 829,300 804,242 811,561 803,362 816,201 779,439
Grand Total 958,250 938,805 955,496 957,403 969,375 915,265
Unit: Barrels/Day
*Jan - Feb
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
18
Crude oil import by sources
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*
Growth Rate(%)
Share(%)
2010 2011* 2011*
Middle
East
36,747 39,145 36,601 34,553 4,714 -5.6 -19.5 64
Far East3,469 3,128 4,951 3,825 426 -22.8 -60.0 6
Others6,456 4,952 5,068 8,987 2,172 77.3 238.2 30
Total46,671 47,225 46,620 47,365 7,311 1.6 -3.3 100
Unit: Million Litres
*Jan - Feb
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
19
2006 2007 2008200
9201
02011*
Share(%)
201
1*
DomesticProduction
2,353 2,515 2,7782,99
03,51
13 ,747
84
Import(Myanmar)
869 906 828 803 853 702 16
Total 3,222 3,421 3,6063,79
44,36
44,449
10
0
Unit: MMSCFD
Natural gas supply
19
*Jan - Feb
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
20
Electricity generation by source 2010
18%4%3%
2%
72%
0.4%
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydro
CoalImport
Renewable
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
Power generation installed capacity
EGAT 14,998 MW (49%)
IPP 12,152 MW (39%)
Import/Exchange 1,588 MW (5%)
SPP 2,182 MW (7%)
2121
*Jan - Feb
*Source: www.eppo.go.th
Content
1. Thailand’s Energy Demand
2. Thailand’s Energy Supply
3. Magic numbers
Outline of today presentation
23
Stories behind the number
A picture is worth a thousand words.
A number can tell (quite) a lot of stories !!! (too).
24
In 2010, Thailand’s energy expenditure
on energy is more than 1.79 trillion baht.
Influenced by high oil price17.7% of GDP
Policy energy efficiency
Government policy on energy price
subsidy
25
Thailand imports more than
80% of crude oil.
Direct impact from high oil price
Limited domestic reserve/productio
n
Policy on alternative fuel such as NGV and biofuel
(ethanol/biodiesl
International cooperation on
petroleum security
2010 crude import = 751 billion baht
26
Natural gas accounts for
70% of fuel for power generation.
Risk from highly dependence on
single fuel source
Public acceptance problem other
technology ie. coal
Power development plan with diversified
fuel source
Development of emergency response
Securing Energy Resources
Ensure Fair Energy Price
Set Renewable Energy as
National Agenda
Preserving Environment coupled with Energy
Development and Consumption
Encouraging Energy
Conservation
11
22
3344
55
Oil
Natural Gas
Electricity
Alternative Energy
E85
Ethanol based oil
Bio Diesel
NGV
Wind /Solar /
Biogas / Biomass /
Small Hydro energy
Conservation
Measure
Efficiency Standard
Encouraging Private
Investment
Price structure
reflect its genuine
cost
Develop Services
Quality
Safety in Energy
Related business
Green house
Emission Reduction
Support CDM
Projects
Policy
Policy
Policy
Policy
Policy
Thailand’s Energy Policy
Presented to the Parliament on Dec 30th 2008
กระทรวงพลังงาน – www.energy.go.th
• Energy Policy and Planning Office- www.eppo.go.th• Department of Mineral Fuels – www.dmf.go.th • Department of Energy Business– www.doeb.go.th• Department of Alternative Energy Development
and Efficiency - www.dede.go.th