User Meeting 15 June 2005 Monthly Forecasting Frederic Vitart ECMWF, Reading, UK.
1 The ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems D. Anderson, M. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, F....
-
Upload
robert-welch -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
2
Transcript of 1 The ECMWF Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Systems D. Anderson, M. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, F....
1
The ECMWF Monthly and
Seasonal Forecast Systems
D. Anderson, M. Balmaseda, L. Ferranti, F. Molteni, T. Stockdale, F. VitartECMWF, Reading, UK
2
Main topics
• Monthly forecast system:– merging with VAREPS– new atmospheric model cycle : improved simulation of
tropical intra-seasonal variability– some recent results from the operational version
• Seasonal forecast system: from System 2 to System 3– improved ocean data assimilation– better predictions of tropical SST– reduced systematic errors in atmospheric fields
3
Monthly Forecasting System
Real-time forecast:
• Coupled ocean-atmosphere integrations: a 51-member ensemble is integrated for 32 days every Thursday.
• Atmospheric component: IFS with the latest operational cycle and with a TL159L62 resolution
• Oceanic component: HOPE (from Max-Planck Institute) with a zonal resolution of 1.4 degrees and 29 vertical levels
• Coupling: OASIS (CERFACS). Coupling every ocean time step (1 hour)
Background statistics:
• 5-member ensemble integrated at the same day and same month as the real-time time forecast over the past 12 years
4
Model changes during the past year
New versions of IFS :
• Cycle 29R2 in June 2005 + new sea ice treatment*
• Cycle 30R1 in Feb 2006 + change of vertical resolution (62 vertical levels)
•The sea-ice cover is persisted from the atmospheric initial conditions till day 10, then relaxed towards climatology. After day 30, the sea-ice cover is the climatologocal sea-ice cover (from ERA40).
Other changes:
• Archiving of probabilities
• Verification web site
• New products (Madden Julian Oscillation, products for the Southern Hemisphere)
5
Future developments: Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS
Present situation: 2 separate systems
EPS:
Day 0 Day 10
TL399L62 twice a day uncoupled
MOFC
: Day 0 Day 32
TL159L62 once a week
Ocean model
6
Future developments: Merging the monthly forecasting system with VAREPS
Q1 2007: single system
VAREPS:
Day 0 Day 10
MOFC:
Day 0 Day 32Ocean model
TL399L62TL255L62
Once a week
Day 32
Day 10
7
48 5-ensemble member cases, CY30R1
VAREPS
Tl1
59
32/16 92% significance
VAREPS
Op. TL159
Prob. 2m temp. in upper tercile. NH. Day 12-18
ROC Area: 0.64 0.61
0.4 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.56 0.6 0.64 0.68 0.72 0.76epni WEEK2
0.4
0.44
0.48
0.52
0.56
0.6
0.64
0.68
0.72
0.76
em
lr W
EE
K2
epni/ emlr: 32/16Significance of WMW-test: 87%
2-meter temperature in lower tercileNorthern Extratropics
ROC Score: 2-meter temperatureECMWF Monthly Forecasts
MAGICS 6.10 leda - nec Wed Jan 25 12:15:26 2006
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1false alarm rate
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
hit
rat
e
week219911001-20021001ECMWF Monthly Forecast, 2mtm upper tercile , Area:Northern Extratropics
ROC score = 0.639ROC score = 0.609
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1rel FC distribution
56350.113 10
5
0.169 105
0.225 105
0.282 105
epni
emlr
8
ERA40 Analysis:
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DA
YS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 13/11/1992 00UTCOBSERVATIONS BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N
Zonal wind anomaly at 850 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
-1
30/01
29/0128/0127/01
26/0125/0124/01
23/0122/0121/01
20/0119/0118/0117/01
16/0115/0114/01
13/0112/0111/01
10/01 9/01 8/01
7/01 6/01 5/01
4/01 3/01 2/01
1/0131/1230/1229/12
28/1227/1226/12
25/1224/1223/12
22/1221/1220/12
19/1218/1217/12
16/1215/12
U 850 hPaVelocity Pot. 200 hPa
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DAYS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 15/12/1992 00UTCOBSERVATIONS BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N
Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
6
30/01
29/0128/0127/01
26/0125/0124/01
23/0122/0121/01
20/0119/0118/0117/01
16/0115/0114/01
13/0112/0111/01
10/01 9/01 8/01
7/01 6/01 5/01
4/01 3/01 2/01
1/0131/1230/1229/12
28/1227/1226/12
25/1224/1223/12
22/1221/1220/12
19/1218/1217/12
16/1215/12
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DAY
S
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 13/11/1992 00UTCOBSERVATIONS BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N
Outgoing Long wave RadiationHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
30/01
29/0128/0127/01
26/0125/0124/01
23/0122/0121/01
20/0119/0118/0117/01
16/0115/0114/01
13/0112/0111/01
10/01 9/01 8/01
7/01 6/01 5/01
4/01 3/01 2/01
1/0131/1230/1229/12
28/1227/1226/12
25/1224/1223/12
22/1221/1220/12
19/1218/1217/12
16/1215/12
OLR
Madden Julian Oscillation experiments: 15/12/92 - 31/01/93
9
MJO simulation:Spectra of tropical velocity potential (in seasonal exper.)
Cy 23R4
ERA-40
Cy 30R2
10
Analysis Cntr T159 Forecast 1
-2
Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Forecast 4
Analysis Cntr T159 Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Forecast 4
CY29R1
CY30R2
Analysis Cntr T159 Forecast 1
-2
Forecast 2 Forecast 3 Forecast 4
Analysis
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
DAYS
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30WLONGITUDE
30E 90E 150E 150W 90W 30W
FORECAST BASED 15/12/1992 00UTCOBSERVATIONS BETWEEN LAT 10S AND 10N
Velocity potential anomaly at 200 hPaHOVMOLLER DIAGRAM OF MONTHLY FORECAST
6
30/01
29/0128/0127/01
26/0125/0124/01
23/0122/0121/01
20/0119/0118/0117/01
16/0115/0114/01
13/0112/0111/01
10/01 9/01 8/01
7/01 6/01 5/01
4/01 3/01 2/01
1/0131/1230/1229/12
28/1227/1226/12
25/1224/1223/12
22/1221/1220/12
19/1218/1217/12
16/1215/12
Madden-Julian oscillation Forecast starting on 31 December 1992
11
MJO EOF analysis
The combined EOFs (vel. pot. 200-hPa, U 850 hPa, OLR) have been computed on ERA40 daily data from 2002 to 2004.
0 60E 120E 180 120W 60W 0
LONGITUDE
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
No
rma
lize
d M
ag
nitu
de
Combined EOF1Explained variance=18.8%
chi200U850olr
0 60E 120E 180 160W 120W 0
LONGITUDE
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Nor
mal
ized
Mag
nitu
de
Combined EOF2Explained Variance=17.7%
chi200U850OLR
12
PC1 PC2
30R2 29R10 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Co
rrel
atio
n w
ith
ob
serv
ed P
C1
Linear Correlation with observed PC1: Individual ensemble members
er98 elz5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Co
rrel
atio
n w
ith
ob
serv
ed P
C2
Linear Correlation with observed PC2: Ensemble Mean
er98 elz5 Pers.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Co
rrel
atio
n w
ith
ob
serv
ed P
C1
Linear Correlation with observed PC1: Ensemble Mean
er98 elz5 Pers.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Day
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Co
rrel
atio
n w
ith
ob
serv
ed P
C1
Linear Correlation with observed PC2: individual ensemble members
er98 elz5
MJO EOF analysis
13
Precipitation over India
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06
ANA
Day
5-11
Day
12-18
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60Forecast start reference is 01-06-2006Precipitation anomalyECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significance
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
DAY 5-11: 05-06-2006/TO/11-06-2006 DAY 12-18 :12-06-2006/TO/18-06-2006
DAY 19-25 :19-06-2006/TO/25-06-2006 DAY 26-32:26-06-2006/TO/02-07-2006
<-90mm -90..-60 -60..-30 -30..-10 -10.. 0 0.. 10 10.. 30 30.. 60 60.. 90 > 90mm
14
Precipitation over India
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 08-05-2006/TO/14-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 13-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 15-05-2006/TO/21-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 20-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 22-05-2006/TO/28-05-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 27-04-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significanceensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60
Verification period: 29-05-2006/TO/04-06-2006Precipitation anomaly
Analysis and ECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ANALYSIS
FORECAST 25-05-2006: DAY 5-11 FORECAST 18-05-2006: DAY 12-18
FORECAST 11-05-2006: DAY 19-25 FORECAST 04-05-2006: DAY 26-32
<-90mm
-90..-60
-60..-30
-30..-10
-10.. 0
0.. 10
10.. 30
30.. 60
60.. 90
> 90mm
08/05-15/05 15/05-22/05 22/05-29/05 29/05-05/06
ANA
Day
19-25
Day
26-32
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
ensemble size = 51 ,climate size = 60Forecast start reference is 01-06-2006Precipitation anomalyECMWF Monthly Forecasting System
Solid contour at 95% significanceShaded areas above 90% significance
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E
DAY 5-11: 05-06-2006/TO/11-06-2006 DAY 12-18 :12-06-2006/TO/18-06-2006
DAY 19-25 :19-06-2006/TO/25-06-2006 DAY 26-32:26-06-2006/TO/02-07-2006
<-90mm -90..-60 -60..-30 -30..-10 -10.. 0 0.. 10 10.. 30 30.. 60 60.. 90 > 90mm
16
•COUPLED MODEL• Atmospheric model cycle 23R4 • Atmospheric resolution TL95 and 40 levels• Hope ocean model (1x1)• Oasis coupler
•INITIALIZATION• ERA-15 data to initialize ocean and atmosphere • Assimilation of subsurface temperature only • “Multivariate” corrections to the salinity and velocity fields • Ensemble of 5 ocean analyses back to 1987.
•ENSEMBLE GENERATION• Real time FC: 40 ensemble members (SST and wind perturbations)• Back integrations:
• 5 members, 1987-2001 for calibration.• 40 members (Nov and May starts) for skill assessment.
System-2
ECMWF seasonal forecast
17
•COUPLED MODEL•New cycle of atmospheric model (Cy31R1)•Higher atmospheric resolution TL159 and 62 levels•Green house gasses and new aerosols.•New sea-ice specification algorithm•Include ocean currents in wave model
•INITIALIZATION•ERA-40 data to initialize ocean and atmosphere •Include bias correction in ocean assimilation.•Include assimilation of salinity and altimeter data. •Ocean reanalysis back to 1959, using ENACT/ENSEMBLES ocean data
•ENSEMBLE GENERATION•Extended range of back integrations: 11 members, 1981-2005.•Revised wind and SST perturbations. •Use EPS Singular Vector perturbations in atmospheric initial conditions.
•Forecasts out to 12 months (4x per year)
System-3(expected late 2006)
18
EUROSIP: EUROpean multi-modelSeasonal-to-Interannual
Prediction system
• Currently composed of ECMWF (System 2), Meteo-France (Arpege/ORCA) and UK MetOffice (GloSea) coupled systems
• Ensemble integrations performed at ECMWF• Multi-model products to be computed and made
available to member states• Graphical products available on the ECMWF web site• Data access/distribution policy to be agreed
19
+New Features•ERA-40 fluxes to initialize ocean
•Retrospective Ocean Reanalysis back to 1959.
•Multivariate on-line Bias Correction .
•Assimilation of salinity data.
•Assimilation of altimeter-derived sea level anomalies.
•3D OI
System-3
New ECMWF operational ocean (re)analysisBasic (existing) Setup:•Ocean model: HOPE (~1x1 going to 1x.3 at the equator)
•Assimilation Method OI
•Assimilation of T + Balanced relationships (T-S, ρ-U)
•10 days assimilation windows, increment spread in time
•Ensemble of 5 ocean analyses to represent uncertainty
20
North Atlantic:
T300 anomaly
North Atlantic:
S300 anomaly
Climate signals….
Reanalysis time series : trends and variability
(with uncertainty from 5 ocean analysis)
21
0001 ATL30NU 132
1970 1980 1990 2000Time
1.2·107
1.4·107
1.6·107
1.8·107
2.0·107
upper 1000m
0001 ATL30NI 132
1970 1980 1990 2000Time
-1.2·107
-1.1·107
-1.0·107
-9.0·106
-8.0·106
-7.0·106
1000m-3000m
0001 ATL30ND 132
1970 1980 1990 2000Time
-1.8·107
-1.6·107
-1.4·107
-1.2·107
-1.0·107
3000m-5000m
THC: Atlantic Meridional Transport (30N)
Values from Bryden et al 2005
22
Tropical Pacific SST indices: bias
---- System 2---- System 3 (exp.)
23
Tropical Pacific SST indices: skill scores
---- System 2---- System 3 (exp.)
24
Tropical Pacific SST indices: error time series
---- System 2---- System 3 (exp.)
25
JFM rainfall standard deviation and regression against the Nino3.4 index: GPCP
26
JFM rainfall standard deviation and regression against the Nino3.4 index: System 2
27
JFM rainfall standard deviation and regression against the Nino3.4 index: System 3
28
Systematic errors in atmospheric fields:
500-hPa geopotential height in JFM (m.4-6)
System 2
System 3
29
Systematic errors in atmospheric fields:
sea level pressure in JAS (m.4-6)
System 2
System 3
30
Systematic errors in atmospheric fields:2-m. temperature in
JAS (m.4-6)
System 2
System 3
31
Latest Niño 3.4 Forecast
EuroSIP ECMWF
32
ECMWF: Prob. 2m temp. > upper tercile
33
EUROSIP: Prob. 2m temp. > upper tercile
34
Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
14.3 10.39.8 13.325.1 26.22 2.9
No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance
Ensemble size = 40,climate size = 70Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyECMWF Seasonal Forecast
Significance level is 90%JASON
FORECAST CLIMATE
Forecasts starting on 1st June 2005: JASON
ECMWF
EuroSIPOBS: JASON 2005
0 1 2 3 40
5
10
15
20
20051993-2004WNP ENP Atl
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
17.8 11.88.7 12.520 212.3 2.5
No Significance Sig at 10% level Sig at 5% level Sig at 1% level
Ensemble size =120,climate size =180Forecast start reference is 01/06/2005Tropical Storm FrequencyEUROSIP multi-model seasonal forecast
Significance level is 10%JASON
ECMWF/Met Office/Météo-France
FORECAST CLIMATE
35
Tropical storm seasonal forecast for JASON 2006
ECMWF forecast issued in May
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E 180°
180° 160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W
12.6 10.310.2 15.323.4 24.81.6 2.4
No Significance 90% Significance 95% Significance 99% Significance
Ensemble size = 40,climate size = 70Forecast start reference is 01/05/2006Tropical Storm FrequencyECMWF Seasonal Forecast
Significance level is 90%JJASO
FORECAST CLIMATE
36
Tropical storm seasonal forecast for JASON 2006 ECMWF forecast issued in June
37
Summary
• Integration of VarEPS and monthly forecast: a step towards a “seamless prediction” system.
• Improvements in physical parametrizations (to be included in cy 31R1) reduce systematic errors and improve tropical intra-seasonal variability in monthly and seasonal forecasts.
• New ocean (re-)analysis beneficial to both seasonal forecasting and climate research
• Multi-model predictions moving from experimental (DEMETER, ENSEMBLES) to operational phase (EUROSIP).