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Survey Flow Processes: Econstats

Example: Using Quarterly Financial Statistics Survey (QFS) :

Private Sector

Kriss Govinden

Seminar on Developing a programme for the implementation of the

2008 SNA and supporting statistics17-19 October 2012

Pretoria, South Africa

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The focus of this presentation will be on the Quarterly Financial Statistics survey.

Similar processes / procedures are followed for other surveys within Economics Statistics.

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Contentsa. Background

b. Work flow chart / value chain

c. Sampling Process

d. Users

e. Data Processing

f. Statistical Release

g. Estimates

h. Key findings

i. Data confrontation

j. Revisions

k. Improvements

l. Limitations

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1. Selected Financial Information requested:

Income and expenditure Inventories Capital expenditure

Background 1/4

2. Sample Size about 5000, majority large enterprises

3. Measures overall economic activity of enterprises operating in the SA economy

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Background 2/4

1. Published with a quarter lag * March in June * June in September * September in December * December on March

2. Less detail than the Annual Financial Statistics (AFS) survey

3. Sample changes annually (Size group 1 has highest level of overlap)

4. Turnover is used as the measure of size

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AgricultureAgriculture

Government statisticsGovernment statistics

Financial intermediation,and insurance

Financial intermediation,and insurance

Background 3/4

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SIC Industry Levels

2 Mining & quarrying 4 digits

3 Manufacturing 3 digits

4 Electricity, gas and water 2 digits (41 & 42)

5 Construction 1 digit

61 Wholesale trade 2 digits: 61

62 Retail trade 2 digits: 62

63 Motor trade 2 digits: 63

64 Accommodation trade 2 digits: 64

7 Transport 2 digits

8 Business services 2 digits: 83, 84, 85, 86, 87 and 88

9 Community, social & personal services 2 digits: 93, 94, 95, 96 and 99

Background 4/4

Scope and Coverage

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Input Quarterly Financial Statistics survey process Output

Quarterly Financial Statistics (QFS) value chain

Plan the survey

Design& Development

Data Collection

SIC

Outcome

Processing Analysis

Operating manual

Plan

Stats SA’s strategic plan (themes and objectives)

Human resources

Government priorities &

legal framework

Compile Publication

and products

Determine data collection

methods and instruments

Systems design and

documentation

Completing questionnaires from financial statements

Implement analysis systems

on raw data

Compile final tables and

graphs

Determine data items to be collected

Sample design

Questionnaire printing, dispatch

and follow ups

Quality checking

Evaluate and validate

Compile key findings

Staff training

Collect and follow up

System implementing

Quality checking: Data

confrontation with other survey

areas:-Manufacturing, wholesale and retail,local gvnt

Notes and glossaryCapturing and

editing

Compile CDs

Resources

Checking and editing completed

questionnaires

Questionnaire design

Determine Stakeholder

needs

Determine Sampling Frame,

sample size

Mark-off on the SMS

SampleSDI

FinanceProgramme Office & MIS

National Accounts

HCDProgramme Office & MIS

Systems of Registers

ADAPT

Trade and Industry Executive

managers

Stats SA

Government

Stats SA users

Staff

HRMIT

Marketing

Trade and Industry

M & EM & E

ITHRM

National Accounts

Regional and provincial

offices

IT

SIS (Printing & Distribution)

International Community

IT

M & E

Employment Stats

Provincial Government component

M & E and external

consultants

Financial Stats managers

DDGSIS

IT resources

Financial resources

SDLC

Check list

Determine data collection and

processing systems

Design, develop and test analysis

systems

Progress reports and monitor progress

Tabulation Plan

SARB

Quality checking

Approval by managers and

Q&M

Run the estimates and

imputationsStaff recruitment

Documentation

DocumentationDocumentation

Documentation

Business register

Estimation Programs

from M & E

National Accounts

Government

Users & Researchers

M & E

SARB

Questionnaire Impact on:

Statistical Release

containing private sector

statistics by industry

Documents

Analysis systems

Updated SMS system

Capturing systems

Planning

Policy Makers

Decision Making

Governance

Economic Growth

Stats SA Credibility

Empower Staff

Electronic products

Work flow chart / value chain 1/2

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Input Quarterly Financial Statistics survey process Output

Quarterly Financial Statistics (QFS) value chain

Evaluate & review

Impact on:

Outcome

Budget

Plan

Stats SA’s strategic

themes and objectives

Human resources

Government priorities &

legal framework

Statistical Release

containing private sector

statistics by industry

Electronic products

Policy Makers

Decision Making

Governance

Economic Growth

Revise documentation

Finalise MIS

Evaluate process

Staff performance evaluation

SDIResearchersFinance

Programme Office & MIS

HRMProgramme Office & MIS

Reserve Bank

Stats SA

Government

Stats SA users

Staff

IT

International Community

Stats SA Credibility

DDG

HRM

M & E

IT resources

Financial resources

National Accounts

Compile or review Operating

Manual

Dissemination

Press conference

Post to the Web

SIS (Printing & Distribution)

SG Support (Communication)

Print the release

Distribute hard copies to regular

users

Programme Office & MIS

Attending to queries

Work flow chart / value chain 2/2

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Sampling Process

Business Sampling Frame

Snapshot

Snapshot analysis and inputs

Common Main Frame

Financial Frame

Annual Samples

Containing updated information

(monthly VAT updates)

According to specifications

Estimates on National Level

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Internal users:

1. National accounts

2. Other internal users Quarterly employment statistics

Uses:

a. Compilation of supply use tablesb. Identify trendsc. QFS is the only source of quarterly financial datad. Information on capital formatione. Used to complement or

compensate for other data sources

a. Data confrontationb. Sectoral analysesc. Financial analyses

Users: Internal

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External users:

1. SARB

2. Government

3. Researchers

4. Respondents

5. Other users

Uses:

a. Information on capital formation

a. Monitoringb. Policy makingc. National Treasury

a. Macro-economic forecastingb. Industry analysis e.g. SA German Chamber of

Commerce

a. Aveng Africa Ltd (formerly Grinaker LTA) – Evaluation of industry performance

b. Kellogg SA – Identify trends and performance of other industries

c. SA Breweries and Unilever SA – Evaluation of market share

a. Universities

Users: External

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Data Processing

Quality Checks and

data validation

Quality Checks

Data validation

Data analysis

Data confrontation

Various

Data cleaning

+

Statistical Release

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Statistical Release

1. Key findings

2. Data comparisons

3. Estimates on industry levels

4. Selected ratios

5. Explanatory and technical notes

6. Glossary

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Estimates 1/31 . Estimates presented on one digit SIC levels

Item

Quarter ended

Change between quarters

ended

March 2012 and

June 2012

Year on year change

between

June 2011 and

June 2012

R million

June

2011

September 2011

December 2011

March

2012

June

2012

Income items              

Turnover received 110 604 113 739 125 525 112 328 112 836 508 2 232

Interest received 1 666 1 484 1 868 1 333 2 709 1 376 1 043

Dividends received 328 833 391 389 792 403 464

Royalties, franchise fees, copyright, trade names and patent rights received 83 11 17 17 26 9 -57

Rental/leasing of land, buildings and other structures received 19 17 14 17 16 -1 -3

Hiring/leasing of plant, machinery, vehicles and other equipment received 218 632 337 167 131 -36 -87

Profit on assets/investment sold or revalued 2 199 4 648 3 922 3 982 3 489 -493 1 290

Other income 4 695 3 281 2 925 2 386 2 478 92 -2 217

Total income 119 812 124 645 134 999 120 619 122 477 1 858 2 665

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Estimates 2/3

Item

All industries

Large Medium Small Total

Range for classification of small, medium and large enterprises based on Turnover. Source: National Small Business Amendment Bill - DTI 2003

       

         

Income items        

Turnover 939 119 126 765 316 256 1 382 140

Interest 7 827 472 930 9 229

Dividends 4 799 46 40 4 885

Royalties, franchise fees, copyright, trade names and trade and patent rights 996 9 240 1 245

Rental/leasing of land, buildings and other structures received 1 478 93 1 170 2 741

Hiring/leasing of plant, machinery, vehicles and other equipment received 1 937 261 900 3 098

Profit on assets/investment sold or revalued 7 840 600 719 9 159

Other income 16 974 2 167 2 389 21 530

Total income 980 970 130 413 322 644 1 434 027

2 . Estimates presented on small, medium and large levels

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Estimates 3/3

3 . Estimates available on lower SIC levels

Category Turnover Sales Services Interest

MINING OF COAL AND LIGNITE 29 351 28 044 1 307 403

EXTRACTION OF CRUDE PETROLEUM 2 846 2 841 5 163

MINING OF GOLD AND URANIUM ORE 15 111 14 982 129 113

2410 17 020 15 773 1 247 49

2421 3 181 2 934 247 50

2422 2 110 2 110 0 5

2423 2 418 2 418 0 288

2424 26 102 26 071 31 257

2429 1 358 1 260 98 41

2511 186 186 0 1

2512 258 243 15 1

2519 1 369 1 312 58 7

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The total turnover of all industries for the second quarter of 2012 was estimated atR1 586 641 million (R1,59 trillion), an increase of 2,7% compared with the revised first quarter of 2012 (R1 545 094 million or R1,55 trillion).

Increases1. Electricity, gas and water, +20.8%, (R6 165 million);2. Construction, +7.8%, (R4 813 million);3. Trade, +2.7%, (R14 701 million);4. Manufacturing, +2.3%, (R11 170 million);5. Transport, storage and communication, +2.2%, (R3 092 million);6. Real estate and other business services (excluding financial intermediation and

insurance), +1.5%, (R2 135 million); and 7. Mining and Quarrying, +0.5%, (R508 million).

Decreases1. Community, social and personal services (excluding government institutions), -2.4%, (R1 037 million).

Key findings 1/7

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Key findings 2/7

Comparison of turnover by industry

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Key findings 3/7Comparison of turnover by industry for the quarters ended March 2012 and June 2012

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Key findings 4/7

Comparison of turnover by industry for the quarters ended June 2011 and June 2012

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Quarterly turnover estimate for all industries

Key findings 5/7

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Comparing ratios between March 2012 and June 2012

Industry

Interest coverage ratio (Net profit Before interest and income tax

Expenses/Interest expenses)

Inventory turnover ratio(Turnover/Closing stocks)

March 2012

June 2012

March 2011

June2012

Mining and Quarrying 7,46 8,54 2,14 1,96

Manufacturing 7,17 6,95 1,90 1,95

Electricity, gas and water 0,79 4,18 2,96 3,55

Construction 2,67 4,64 9,18 9,34

Trade 6,34 5,91 2,58 2,67

Transport, storage and communication 4,82 5,28 10,90 10,08

Real estate and other business services 2,90 3,73 15,08 15,28

Community, social and personal services 9,51 5,67 16,53 15,86

All industries 4,93 5,54 2,78 2,83

Key findings 6/7

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• Improvement in the interest coverage between June and March 2012

reflects a positive signal that enterprises have generated more revenue

during the June 2012 to satisfy their interest obligation.

• The increase in turnover ratio indicates that inventory effectively

generated more turnover during the June 2012 quarter as compared to

the March 2012 quarter (inventory movement is starting to improve

between the June and March 2012 quarters).

Comparing ratios between March 2012 and June 2012

Key findings 7/7

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Data confrontation

Data confrontation

The following sources were used to verify or confront data:

1. Monthly surveys – mining (including correspondence with Department of Minerals and Energy), manufacturing, electricity and trade industries

2. Previous published quarters of the QFS

3. GDP

4. Salaries and wages variable with QES data

5. Media reports

6. Financial statements

7. Internet

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Revisions

Major reasons for revisions in previous quarter’s estimates

1. Late submission of the data.

2. Revised information received.

3. Changes in weights (design weights and non-response).

4. IFRS adjustments made to previously received data.

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YEAR PUBLICATION IMPROVEMENTS PUBLISHED TIMEFRAME

2011

&

2012

Sample size: about 5000

More detailed SIC

1. Estimates of small, medium and large enterprises.

2. Extensive improvement to the clearance document and QFS processes.

3. On-going provision of flash estimates to National Accounts at 75% response rate.

4. Publication of employment cost.

5. Parallel Sample.

6. Flash estimates to national account and South African Reserve Bank at 65% response rate.

7. Collection, processing and publication of the new sample.

8. Interaction with SARB.

9. Interaction with the GDP Expenditure team.

10. Actual values to South African Reserve Bank on overlapping units.

Quarterly Quarter lag

Improvements

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Limitations

1. Not covering the whole economy (excludes agriculture, hunting, fishing and forestry, financial intermediation, insurance and pension funding and government institutions).

2. Not activity based but industry based.

3. No regional estimates available.

4. Structure of enterprises can vary.

5. BSF challenges including: duplication; classification; weights.

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Thank You

Questions?