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Status on NOAA’s Plan to Strengthen the

Tsunami Warning Program

A Presentation to the NOAA Science Advisory Board

Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.)NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services

Dr. Eddie Bernard, Director, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

August 8, 2005

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Outline

• Purpose

• Issues

• Presentation of Briefing

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Purpose

• Present a status report on NOAA’s plan to strengthen the U.S. Tsunami Warning Program, discuss research within NOAA, and receive SAB feedback

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Issues

• Legislation

• Maintain NOAA’s leadership role in tsunami research– Tsunami science– Technology development– Modeling

• Field improved tsunami warning system– International and regional networks

• GEOSS system of systems

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NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update

1. Upgrade and expand DART network

• 39 DART II stations– 32 new Pacific

stations (6 DART stations to be upgraded)

– 7 new Atlantic stations

NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved!

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NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update

2. Expand and upgrade Water Level Monitoring Network

• Real time sensing• Broaden coverage

– Upgrade 33 existing in Pacific – 10 new Pacific stations– 6 new Caribbean stations

• Strengthen NWLON (National Water Level Observing Network) contribution to Integrated Ocean Observing System

NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved!

Sitka, AK

Yakutat, AK

Seward, AK

Cordova, AK

Kodiak, AK

Sand Point, AK

Unalaska, AK

Adak, AK

ALASKA

Hilo, HIKawaihae, HI

Kahului, HIHonolulu, HI

Mokuoloe, HI

Nawiliwili, HI

Midway

Kwajalein

Pago Pago

Guam

Wake Island

HAWAII

PACIFIC ISLANDS

Neah Bay, WA

Toke Point, WA

South Beach, OR

Port Orford, OR

Charleston, OR

Los Angeles, CA

La Jolla, CA

Arena Cove, CA

Santa Monica, CA

Port San Luis, CA

Monterey, CA

Point Reyes,CA

North Spit,CA

Crescent City,CA

WEST COAST

PUERTO RICO &VIRGIN ISLANDS

NOAA’s 49 National Water Level Observation Network

Tsunami Tide Stations

Planned New Stations with Tsunami capability (14)

Existing Stations with Tsunami capability (25)

Atka, AKNikolski, AK

King Cove, AK

Elfin Cove, AK

Port Alexander, AK

Akhiok, AK (or Old Harbor, AK)

Santa Barbara, CA

Westport, WA

La Push, WA

Garibaldi, OR

Mona IslandAguadilla Pier Culebra

Vieques, Esperanza

St. John

St.Croix

Installed New Stations with Tsunami capability (2)

Upgraded Stations with Tsunami capability (8)

June 2005

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3. Expand and upgrade seismic network• Broadband sensors• Strong motion sensors

NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved!

NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update

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NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update

4. Inundation modeling, mapping, and forecasting

• Develop 74 inundation forecast models by end of 2009)

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5. Tsunami Warning Center Operations—PTWC and WC/ATWC

• Expand operations to 24x7

6. Facilities• Expand facilities at PTWC and National Data

Buoy Center

NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved!

NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update

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7. TsunamiReady• Incentivize communities at risk to participate

in the TsunamiReady program (tsunami resilient)

• Identify and assist at-risk coastal communities

8. Tsunami Data Long Term Archive• Design, create, populate, and maintain DART

and Tide Gauge Long Term Archive

NOAA-wide program – All line offices involved!

NOAA Tsunami Mitigation Program Update

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Research UpdateDr. Eddie Bernard, Director, NOAA PMEL

• “Developing Tsunami-Resilient Communities” published

• DART network siting workshop held

• Progress on transferring forecast models and DART II to operations

• Future Research (Tour of PMEL)

• Tsunami Research Review

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DART Siting Workshop

• Main concern: early detection• Adjustments to far field sites ( Southern

Ocean) and near field sites (US west coast)

• Identified a process for siting in the Caribbean

• Identified sites for September deployment in Alaska

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Transfer Research to Operations

• DART II transfer begins in September

• Web version of tsunami forecast model successfully used for June 14, 2005, warning at Crescent City, California

• Installation of hardware and training for warning personnel will begin in February, 2006

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Future Research to Operations

• Easy to deploy DART II

• Tsunami Forecast Modeling

1. Real-time forecasts

2. Inundation Scenario Studies

3. Assimilate with other NOAA ocean modeling activities

Further discussions at PMEL on Wednesday

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Tsunami Research Review

• Called for in National Science and Technology Council’s joint report of the Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction and the US group on Earth Observations “Tsunami Risk Reduction”

• Identified in House and Senate versions of the Tsunami Preparedness Act to be conducted by NAS

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NSF/NOAA Tsunami Research Review 1980

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1980 Research Priorities

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NOAA Coordination & Views

• Coordination with– NOAA Leadership, AAs, NEC

• What has NOAA done to address this issue? – Established NOAA-wide Tsunami program with

five key capabilities:• Assessment• Warning system• Mitigation• Research• International coordination

• What are NOAA’s views on the subject? – Strong coordination necessary for success.– Requires multiple line office and multiple agency

execution through an end-to-end process.

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Desired Outcomes

• Be informed of:

– NOAA’s leadership role in tsunami research

– Requirements of fielding improved tsunami warning system

• SAB ideas on tsunami research review

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Backup Slides

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Data Communication Forecast DecisionSupport

NotificationPublic

UnderstandingPublic and

Community Action

Collect Data Process and Analyze Data

Outlook / Forecast: Tsunamis,

Typhoons, Floods, Droughts, Public Health,Temperature Extreme,

Winter Storms, Tornadoes, Space

Weather, Fire Weather, Rip Currents, Climate

Prediction, Soil Moisture

Advisory, Watch,

Warning, Bulletins,

Emergency Manager Training,

Media Training

Multiple Redundant,

Reliable, Comms.

Community Education,

Risk Assessment, Community Action

Plans, Personal Action

Plans

Evacuation, Shelter,

Supplies,Review Plans

Regional and National Centers

End-To-End All Hazards Forecast and Warning

Integrated All-Hazard Forecasting, Warning and Response With Tsunami Warning System

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FY05 and FY06 Funding

Element FY05 ($ millions) FY06 President’s Budget Request ($ millions)

Program Management 0.40 0.00

DART Stations and Ship Allocation/Deployment

8.81 3.98

NWLON 1.03 0.40

Seismic Network 0.60 0.75

Inundation Mapping/Modeling 3.00 1.00

TWC Extended Operations 0.80 1.62

Facilities 1.25 0.50

Tsunami Ready 1.25 1.25

Long-Term Archive 0.10 0.00

Total Program Costs 17.24 9.50

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NOAA Seismic Network

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Tsunami Program Matrix

NWS OAR NOS NMAOLine Office Execution

Wea

ther

& W

ater

Goa

l

Tsunami

Warning Center Operation: PTWC,

WC/ATWC

Vulnerability Assessment, Inundation Forecast Modeling & Mapping Applications, Risk Assessment and Planning

TsunamiReady

Hazard Assessment

Warning Guidance

DART System O&M, andTransition from Research to Applications

NWLON O&M Fleet Services

Mitigation

Research

International Coordination

Tsunami Science,Inundation Modeling & Mapping,

Sensor Development

Regional and Global Warning System Development and Capacity BuildingIntergovernmental and Global Framework: IOC, WMO, ISDR, GEO

Post-tsunami assessments; technology development and data/information exchangeInteragency Partnerships: USAID, USGS, USTDA, USF, FEMA

Seismic Network O&M

National Hazard Mitigation ProgramNOAA/State Partnerships

Data Archiving: NGDC

NESDIS

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Operating Capability Overview

• Initial Operating Capability (IOC)– The WC/ATWC and PTWC staffed 24x7.– 100% of Tsunami threatened communities identified and contacted.– Forecast models and mapping completed for 6 high risk areas with

6 additional areas underway.– 6 additional DART II stations (supplementing the original 6 DART I

stations) deployed in the Pacific & 4 DART stations installed in the Atlantic/Caribbean.

• Full Operating Capability (FOC)– Tsunami Ready awareness continuing, 21 communities

recognized. – Forecast models and mapping ongoing with 15 areas completed.– Local seismic network expansion and upgrade completed.– All DART II stations deployed and full logistics support established.– All sea-level stations installed.