1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea...
-
date post
20-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
1
Transcript of 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea...
![Page 1: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
1
Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise:A Case Study of Flooding
Robert J. Nicholls1
Plan
• Sea Level and the Coast• Global Assessment
• Methods• IS92a Results -- across the range of climate sensitivity• SRES Results -- across different socio-economic futures
• Concluding Remarks1. Presently Middlesex University, UK ([email protected]) From 1 January 2004, University of Southampton, UK
![Page 2: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Processes controlling sea-levelchange
Relative sea-level changes
![Page 3: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
Sea-Level Rise at New York City1850 to 2100
6
8 S
ea L
evel (m
)
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Time (yrs)
Observations Scenarios
IPCC TAR range due to SRES emission scenarios
![Page 4: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Sea Level Under StabilisationIllustrating the large ‘commitment’
IS92a ‘unmitigated’S550
S750HadCM2 Model Results
![Page 5: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Population and Population Density vs. Distance and Elevation
in 1990
Coastal Population Distribution
![Page 6: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Coastal Megacities (>8 million people)
UN Forecast for 2010
Istanbul
LagosLima
Buenos Aires Rio de JaneiroMadras
KarachiJakarta
Calcutta
Bombay
Bangkok
Manila
Shanghai
Osaka
Tokyo
Seoul
Tianjin
Dhaka
New York
Los Angeles
![Page 7: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
NATIONAL/LOCAL
Scale
UNFCCC(mitigation &
adaptation(?))
Regional Co-operation
Relevant Policies
CoastalManagement(Adaptation)
Bottom/UpTop/Down
Synthesis/
Upscaling
Impact/Adaptation
Assessments
Assessments
Integrated Models
Linking Climate Change to Policy
![Page 8: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Coastal Flood Plain
![Page 9: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Sea-level rise and flood return period
![Page 10: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
Research Questions
With consistent ‘climate and socio-economic scenarios’ (e.g., IS92a):
1. Is global-mean sea-level rise a problem, if ignored?
2. What are the benefits of stabilising greenhouse forcing (mitigation policy)?
![Page 11: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Background
• Developed from the original Global Vulnerability Analysis (Hoozemans et al., 1993);
• Based on a database of 192 polygons (roughly speaking the coastal countries);
• Storm characteristics are assumed constant;
• Assumes a constant slope across the flood plain;
• Defence standards derived from GDP/capita;
• Failure compromises entire flood plain;
• Results are only meaningful at the regional and global scale.
![Page 12: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Improvements• Dynamic sea level, coastal population and standard
of protection scenarios;
• But standard of protection only evolves in response to the 1990 climate (i.e. sea-level rise is ignored);
• Higher costs of protecting deltaic areas are considered;
• Increased flood risk within the coastal flood plain is evaluated;
• Minimum 1990 defence standards are assumed as 1 in 10 year.
![Page 13: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
Methodology
Relative Sea-LevelRise Scenarios
Raised Flood Levels
Global Sea-levelRise Scenarios
Size of Flood Hazard Zones
People in theHazard Zone
Subsidence
Storm SurgeFlood Curves
Coastal Topography
PopulationDensity
Protection Status(1in 10, 1 in 100, etc.) (“EXPOSURE”)
(“RISK”)Average AnnualPeople Flooded, etc.
![Page 14: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
OUTPUTPeople in the hazard zone (PHZ): number of people exposed to flooding by storm surge;
Average annual people flooded (AAPF): the average annual number of people who experience flooding by storm surge (also described as people at risk (PAR));
People to respond (PTR): the average annual number of people who experience flooding by storm surge more than once per year.
PHZPAR
PTR
![Page 15: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
Population Scenario• population growth in the coastal flood plain is
double national trends.
Protection Scenario• in phase evolving protection with
increasing GDP/capita (and ignoring sea-level rise)
![Page 16: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
ValidationModel vs. National estimates
1.E+03
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
1.E+08
1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07 1.E+08
National Assessments
Glo
bal
Mo
del
No SLR SLR = 1 m
![Page 17: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
17
ResultsIS92a World
![Page 18: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
18
Global Incidence of Flooding Evolving Protection and No Sea-Level Rise
0
10
20
30 P
eop
le F
lood
ed (
Mill
ion
s/yr
)
1990 2020s 2050s 2080sTime (years)
![Page 19: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
19
Scenario Valuesfor an IS92a World
Global sea-level rise (cm)
Year
Low Mid High
Subsidence(cm)
GlobalPopulation(billions)
Global GDP(10 12
1990 US$)1990 0 0 0 0 5.3 20
2020s 4 11 22 0 or 5 8.1 65
2050s 10 27 49 0 or 10 9.8 113
2080s 19 45 80 0 or 14 10.7 1642100 23 55 96 0 or 17 11.0 189
![Page 20: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
20
People Flooded -- relative to an evolving non-climate baseline
0
1000
2000
3000
2020s 2050s 2080s
% In
cre
as
e
Low Scenario Mid Scenario
High Scenario
![Page 21: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
21
People Flooded -- relative to an evolving non-climate baseline
1
10
100
1000
10000
2020s 2050s 2080s
%In
crea
se
Low Scenario
Mid Scenario
High Scenario
![Page 22: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22
Vulnerable RegionsMid estimate in the 2080s
C
A
C
B
PEO PLE AT RISK(m illio ns p e r re g io n)
> 50 m illio n
10 - 50 m illio n
< 10 m illio n
re g io n b o und a ry
vulne ra b le isla nd re g io n
Pa c ificO c e a nSM ALLISLAN D S
C a rib b e a n
Ind ia nO c e a nSM ALL ISLAN D S
C
B
A
![Page 23: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
23
StabilisationIS92a World
![Page 24: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24
Sea-Level Scenariosfor one climate sensitivity
IS92a ‘unmitigated’S550
S750HadCM2 Model Results
![Page 25: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
25
Flood Impacts Under Stabilisation
0
50
100
2020s 2050s 2080s
Pe
op
le F
loo
de
d (
mill
ion
s/y
ear
)
UnmitigatedS750S550
No Climate Change
![Page 26: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
26
Stabilisation and Climate Sensitivity Unmitigated (IS92a) and Stabilisation Scenarios (S750 and S550)
Calculations by Jason Lowe, Hadley Centre
0
50
100
150
1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200
Time
Sea
lev
el
(cm
)
High ClimateSensitivity
Mid ClimateSensitivity
Low ClimateSensitivity
![Page 27: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
27
Stabilisation in an ‘IS92a World’ Additional People Flooded (millions/year)
0
20
40
2020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s
Ad
dit
ion
al P
eop
le F
loo
ded
S550 S750 IS92a
(b) Low climate sensitivity
0
100
200
2020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s
Ad
dit
ion
al P
eop
le F
loo
ded
S550 S750 IS92a
(c) Mid climate sensitivity (HadCM2)
0
200
400
600
2020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s
Ad
dit
ion
al P
eop
le F
loo
ded
S550 S750 IS92a
(d) High climate sensitivity
0
20
40
1990 2020s 2050s 2080s 2110s 2140s
Peo
ple
Flo
od
ed
(a) Baseline: No global sea-level rise
![Page 28: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28
ResultsSRES Scenarios
![Page 29: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29
SRES: Sea-Level Rise ScenariosHadCM3 Model -- Climate Sensitivity Constant
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Time (yrs.)
Glo
ba
l-M
ea
n R
ise
(m
)
A1FIB1
A2B2
![Page 30: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30
Global Incidence of Flooding Evolving Protection and No Sea-Level Rise
0
10
20
30
1990 2020s 2050s 2080s
AA
PF
(m
illi
on
s/ye
ar)
A1FI
A2
B1
B2
![Page 31: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
31
Additional People Floodedwith global sea-level rise
0
10
20
2020s 2050s 2080s
AA
PF
(m
illi
on
s/y
ear)
A1FI
A2
B1
B2
![Page 32: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
32
Stabilisation under SRESfollowing Swart et al (2002)
0
10
20
30
40
A1FI A2 B1 B2
Peo
ple
Flo
od
ed (
mil
lio
ns/
yr.)
No SLR Unmitigated
"S650" "S550"
![Page 33: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33
Concluding Remarks• Sea-level rise could be a serious problem for
coastal flooding, but the uncertainties are large;
• Mitigation reduces but does not avoid flood impacts, and some impacts are only delayed;
• A combined strategy of mitigation and adaptation would seem prudent -- but what mixture?
• Next steps: the DINAS-COAST Project
![Page 34: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34
RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS• HOOZEMANS, F.M.J., MARCHAND, M., PENNEKAMP, H.A., STIVE, M., MISDORP, R. & BIJLSMA, L., 1992. The impacts of sea-
level rise on coastal areas: Some global results. In: Proceedings ‘The Rising Challenge of the Sea’, Margarita Island, Venezuela, March 9-13 1992. NOAA, Silver Spring, Md. pp. 275-292.
• HOOZEMANS, F.M.J., MARCHAND, M. & PENNEKAMP, H.A., 1993. A Global Vulnerability Analysis: Vulnerability Assessment for Population, Coastal Wetlands and Rice Production on a Global Scale . 2nd edition. Delft Hydraulics, the Netherlands.
• PARRY, M., ARNELL, N., HULME, M., NICHOLLS, R. & LIVERMORE, M. 1998. Adapting to the inevitable. Nature, 395, 741.
• NICHOLLS, R.J., HOOZEMANS, F.M.J., & MARCHAND, M. 1999. Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: Regional and global analyses. Global Environmental Change, 9, S69-S87.
• PARRY, M., ARNELL, N., McMICHAEL, T., NICHOLLS, R., MARTENS, P., KOVATS, S., LIVERMORE, M., ROSENZWEIG, C., IGLESIAS, A. & FISCHER, G., 2001. Millions at risk: defining critical climate threats and targets. Global Environmental Change, 11(3), 1-3.
• ARNELL, N.W., CANNELL, M.G.R., HULME, M., KOVATS, R.S., MITCHELL, J.F.B., NICHOLLS, R.J. PARRY, M.L., LIVERMORE,, M.T.J. & WHITE, A. 2002. The consequences of CO2 stabilisation for the impacts of climate change Climatic Change, 53, 413-446.
• NICHOLLS, R.J. and SMALL, C., 2002. Improved Estimates of Coastal Population and Exposure to Hazards Released. EOS Transactions, 83(2), 301 and 305. (downloadable at www.survas.mdx.ac.uk)
• NICHOLLS, R.J. 2002. Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: A case study of flooding. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 27, 1455-1466.
• SMALL, C. & NICHOLLS, R.J. 2003, A Global Analysis of Human Settlement in Coastal Zones, Journal of Coastal Research, 19(3), 584-589.
• NICHOLLS, R.J., 2003. Coastal Flooding and Wetland Loss in the 21 st Century: Changes Under The SRES Climate And Socio-Economic Scenarios. Global Environmental Change, accepted.
• NICHOLLS, R.J. & LOWE, J.A., in review. Benefits of Climate Mitigation for Coastal Areas. Submitted to Global Environmental Change.
![Page 35: 1 Some Global Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: A Case Study of Flooding Robert J. Nicholls 1 Plan Sea Level and the Coast Global Assessment Methods IS92a Results.](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022032704/56649d435503460f94a1fbbd/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35
Web Sites
• SURVAS– http://www.survas.mdx.ac.uk/
• DINAS-COAST– http://www.pik-potsdam.de/dinas-coast/