1 “Security” in the EEA forward-looking studies Global megatrends analysis and regional security...
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Transcript of 1 “Security” in the EEA forward-looking studies Global megatrends analysis and regional security...
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“Security” in the EEA forward-looking studies
Global megatrends analysis and regional security implications of climate change, 7-8 December 2010
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Regarding the definition of security and
environment
EEA work
Way forward- examples
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freedom from fear
freedom from want
protection and empowerment
freedom from hazard impacts
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EEA
Security issues appear in the EEA assessments in different forms, ie:
Water security
Energy security
Food security
Resource security
With no naming
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uncertainties
complex and dynamic environment
forces of future change
PROJECTIONS
SCENARIOS
What are the prospects for the environment
in the pan-European region?
what if...
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Security as a driving force
PRELUDE scenarios - EEA: two scenarios are triggered by food security or energy security crises
Security as uncertainty
Security as an objective for the future
Global scenarios to 2025 - Schellexplore the three forces: • market incentives• communities• and regulation by the state. Three main forces drive towards different objectives: efficiency, social cohesion, and
justice and security. The forces display elements of mutual exclusivity.
UNEP's Global Environment Outlook (GEO) scenarios1. Markets First 2. Policy First 3. Security First 4. Sustainability First
1. Low Trust Globalisation – security and efficiency2. Open Doors 3. Flags — security and community values
Source: Shell, 2005.
1. Evolved Society Scenario2. Europe of Structure (Clustered Networks Scenario)3. Europe of Innovation (Lettuce Surprise U Scen.) 4. Europe of Cohesion (Big Crisis Scenario) Source: EEA, 2007b and www.eea.europa.eu/prelude.
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Forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans
In particular the role of consumption and production patterns
Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and
consumption patterns
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SOER 2010 Global megatrends
Security is a key issue in the megatrends development in the future:– Intensified global competition for resources – Decreasing stocks of natural resources
– Resources supply security
– Increasingly severe consequences of climate change – food, water, health, ecosystem services security
Security impacts of megatrends development in the future– From an unipolar to a multipolar world – Increasing global divergence in population trends – populations
aging, growing, migrating– Living in an urban world– Disease burdens and the risk of new pandemics
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SOER 2010 Synthesis
Resource overexploitation and changes in climate affect quality of life, potentially undermining social and political stability and sustainability of local ecosystem services (livelihoods of people). Combined with demographic pressures, decreasing socio ecological resilience can add a new dimension to the environment and security debate, as conflict around scarcer resources is likely to intensify and add to migration pressures.
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Way forward - Example 1Global megatrends – links to security
Analyses from National Intelligence Council, US:Global megatrends impacts to national security
Aging of population will pose budget challenges (decide on guns or wheel chairs) and manpower shortages for Europe and Japan:
- if EU and Japan do accept large scale migrations – could lead to ethnic and racial tensions and xenophobic policies which will influence global governance
- Failure to deal with this challenges in EU an Japan will lead to slowing down of global economy
- Youth cohorts in emerging economies, rapid economic growth and urbanization:
- If China and India fail to manage this, it could influence radical political movements, internal instability, international terrorism
- Increased migration, travel and trade are likely to accelerate the transfer of infectious diseases
These impacts are not inevitable, as there are many uncertainties we need to deal with and policy options we can choose.
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Way forward- Example 2Analyses of pathways and archetypes
• Environment is contributor, but less than political, economic, historic… factors
• Global megatrends analyses showed that in the future environment will play increasingly important role.
• Only case studies approach, no systemic conclusions.
• Further empirical studies needed – Why critical constellations escalated into
the conflict (the role of environment)?Analyse archetypes of these critical constellations
Quantitative methods can contribute to recognition of linkages between structural components but are not sufficient to address complex relations which can not be modelled and can be address only by interdisciplinary teams
Environment stress
floods,droughts
lack of arable land,
water,
air pollution,
shortage of fuel wood
Socio-economic context
Pathways Impacts to security
economic decline (more for poor than for rich)
Migrations
Social fragmentation
Inequality
Erosion of civil society
Curtailment of the state
Urban violence
Conflicts
Wars
Interantainal
Local communities tensions
Cause-effect chainArchetypes of critical constellations
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Thank you
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Regional workshops: EE, CA,…Global workshop
OSCE security implications of climate change – scenarios
UNEP GEO
UNEP ASEF
NATO
ENVSEC
EEA
Global driving forces Scenarios
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NR scarcity Consumption
Climate change impacts - regional in wider Europe
water security food security energy security resource security
Human security (wars, international legal disputes, intercommoned tensions, exacerbated tensions..)
Global Megatrends(STEEP driving forces)