1 Presented to ERCOT Retail Market Subcommittee January 9, 2002 Profiling Working Group Darryl...

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Presented to ERCOT

Retail Market Subcommittee

January 9, 2002

Profiling Working GroupDarryl Nelson, Chair

Load Profiling Operating Guides(LPOG)

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Sections of LPOG Approved by RMS:

• Change Control Process for LPOG (3)

• Validation of Load Profile IDs (10)

• Requests for Changes to Profile Segment Definitions (11)

• Requests for Changes to Weather Zone Definitions (12)

• Load Profile Dispute Resolution Process (13)

Summary of Approved Sections

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Approval of Approach for 6 sections:

• Purpose of Load Profiling (1)

• Guidelines for Load Profile Development (4)

• Request for Changes to Load Profile Methodology (6)

• Request for Changes to Load Profile Models (7)

• kVa to kW Conversion (9)

• Access to Load Profiling Materials (17)

Goal for Today

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Brief Overview

• Part of Settlements

• 15-minute intervals

• Non-IDR customers

• Created in fair and equitable manner

Purpose of Load Profiling

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Goal for Today

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Background

• More detail for principles listed in Protocols 18.2.1

• Part of Load Profiling Methodology document,

v1.04

• Approved by PWG in May 2000

Guidelines for Load Profile Development

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Guidelines

• Minimize total number of load profiles by leveraging

existing load research data

• Incorporate generation cost data into analysis to

determine appropriate number of load profiles

• Suggested issues to be addressed when assigning load

profiles to areas that do not currently have load

research data

(cont’d)


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Guidelines (cont’d)

• Use readily identifiable parameters to assign load

profiles

• Use most accurate load research data available

• Possible methods to accommodate Time-of-Use,

controlled loads and other similar demand-side

management programs.

(cont’d)


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Guidelines (cont’d)

• Load profile information shall be consistent, clear,

easy to understand, and readily available.

• Load profile methodology shall be fully and

unambiguously defined.


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Goal for Today

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Introduction

ERCOT Board approval is necessary for any change from one load profile methodology to another. (Protocols 18.2.9)

This section does not address changes to profile segments or weather zones.

A request for a load profile methodology change will not be accepted until 2 years after market open.

Changes to Load Profile Methodology

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Current Methodologies

• Adjusted Static - Residential and Commercial

• Engineering Estimates - street lighting and other constant loads

• Proxy Day - estimating IDR loads

• Lagged Dynamic Sampling - Direct Load Control


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Who May Submit

Any market participant, Profiling WG, or ERCOT may submit a request to change a load profiling methodology.


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Timing

• No requests accepted for 2 years

• Submitter of a request will be notified within 2 business days by ERCOT of receipt of request and inform submitter of next PWG meeting dates.

• Submitter will present request at next PWG meeting.


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Timing (cont’d)

• After request has been presented, ERCOT will respond within 60 days to address these issues:

- Completeness of request

- Additional data, if needed

- Assessment criteria

- Estimate of time to evaluate request

- Estimate of time to implement request

• A methodology change will only be implemented with Board approval and at least 12 months notice to market participants.


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Information Required with Request

• State why a change is necessary, why the proposed methodology is superior to current, and how the benefits of change outweigh costs to implement.

• Supporting data, such as:

- Analysis of data available in ERCOT systems

- Analysis of load research data not available to ERCOT

- Other data or supporting evidence


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Evaluation of Request

ERCOT will evaluate the request for change to methodology using these factors:

• Quality of supporting data

• Magnitude of differences

• Size of affected load profile population

• Effect on rest of market if change is accepted


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Approval of Request

Ultimate approval by ERCOT Board after following proper approval sequence through appropriate TAC subcommittees and TAC.


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Costs for Methodology Changes

The submitter of request will pay all costs associated with developing supporting data and documentation. Also, ERCOT may charge a processing fee for evaluating the request.

Costs for implementing changes to ERCOT systems will be borne by ERCOT.


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Procedure for Submitting a Request

• Submit request to ERCOT

(All materials in electronic format only)

• Present request to PWG

• PWG, ERCOT, and submitter will jointly review request

• PWG and ERCOT will determine any additional supporting data needed from submitter to evaluate request.


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Goal for Today

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Types of Evaluations

• Routine

ERCOT will perform annual evaluations

• Interim

Request for model performance evaluation from market participant, TAC subcommittee, or ERCOT.

Profile Models

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Implementation of Model Changes

Any changes based on annual and interim evaluations

will be implemented together as part of the annual

implementation of changes (including changes to

profile segments and/or weather zones), unless

evaluation determines a need for a more immediate

change.

Profile Models

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Types of Profile Models

Adjusted Static Model

• Most profile segments are adjusted static

• Regression

• Based on load research, weather, and calendar

Engineering Estimates

• Non-metered: lighting and flat

• Assume same operating schedule and same load

• Sunrise/sunset effect on lighting

Profile Models

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Evaluations of Adjusted Static

With Current Load Research Data• Best data for comparison/evaluation• Factors for Comparison

Load-weighted average priceOn/Off Peak ratioLoad factorSummary statistics on difference in seriesDeadweight loss

Without Current Load Research Data• Old load research data• Monthly consumption data

Profile Models

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Evaluation of Engineering Estimates

• Evaluate any new operating schedules

• Evaluate any new load information

• Compare monthly consumption data

Profile Models

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Routine Evaluations• Compare existing profile model with profile based

on load research data

• Consider any end-use saturation data

• Consider any current data useful for engineering models

• Review magnitude of load migration

• Compare aggregate monthly consumption data with profile model

• Evaluate weather zone definitions for adequacy of weather stations and weighting

Profile Models

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Interim Evaluations

Same as Routine Evaluation except attention will be

limited to those profile segment models and weather

zones that are of concern.

Profile Models

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Assessing the Type of Change Needed

Profile Models

Possible Recommendations

• Adjust coefficients for one or more profile segments

• Re-estimate models

• Begin to collect new load research data

• Implement changes to weather zone(s)

• Implement changes to profile segment(s)

• No change

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Assessing the Type of Change Needed

Qualitative Criteria

•Determine if serious bias is present

•Determine degree of bias, e.g. modest, extensive

•Implement necessary actions to rectify bias problem:

Adjustment factors

Change definition of weather zone(s)

Limited load research program

Adjust coefficients

Re-estimate models

Profile Models

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Criteria for Requiring a Change

• No criteria at this time.

• Criteria might be established after the first annual evaluation is complete.

Profile Models

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Procedures for Making a Change• Approval by the appropriate TAC subcommittee• Implement changes to Adjusted Static:

Adjustment factors Model Re-estimation

• New engineering estimates

• Changes will occur annually unless required immediately

Profile Models

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Requesting a Change to ModelsProcedures

• General info

• Model adjustment factors

• Analysis of data in ERCOT systems

• Analysis of load research data not available to ERCOT

• Analysis of other supporting data

• Engineering estimates

• Re-estimation of Models

Profile Models

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Goal for Today

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General Info

ESI Ids with demand meters are assigned a Load Profile type based on average annual load factor. To calculate load factor, a demand in kW is needed.

If kVa is metered instead of kW, then the TDSP must determine the appropriate power factor(s) that should be used for the conversion.

This conversion from kVa to kW is used only for assigning the proper load profile type to each ESI ID.

kVa to kW Conversion

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Applicable Market Participants

This section applies to any market participant such as:

• TDSP who currently meters kVa

• TDSP who changes from kW to kVa metering

• NOIE that decides to opt-in

• New competitive metering market participant


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Procedure

• TDSP will conduct a case study to determine appropriate power factor(s) to be used in conversion.

• TDSP will submit case study to ERCOT

• PWG will meet within 30 days of submittal to review

• If PWG approves, then sent to RMS, TAC and Board for approval as appropriate.

• TDSP implements approved power factor(s) conversion for load profile ID assignments.


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Power Factor Performance Review

TDSP must periodically review the performance of the power factor(s) at the discretion of ERCOT or the PWG.


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Other Issues

ERCOT and the PWG will specify minimal reporting standards for power factor analysis to each requestor on a case-by-case basis.

Without approval of the case study, a default power factor of 1.0 shall be imposed.


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Goal for Today

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Daily Load Profiling Market Info

Access to Load Profiling Materials

• Backcasted (Actual) Load Profiles

• Forecasted Load Profiles

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Load Profiling Documents


• Profile File Format

• Profile Decision Tree

• Profile Model Spreadsheets

• Final Profile Model Report

• Load Profile History

• Historical Weather Data by Weather Zone

• Profile Types and Weather Zones

• Profile Data Evaluation Report

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Other Materials


Calendar of Events

Provides information on the PWG meetings

Profiling Working Group Meeting Info

Will contain information similar to Calendar of Events,

but in a more accessible form. Incomplete (gray boxed)

1 Presented to ERCOT Retail Market Subcommittee January 9, 2002 Profiling Working Group Darryl...

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