1

Predictions and Uncertainty

2013

“Ice Free”

Significant periods of open water conditions throughout large areas of the Arctic by 2025

Greenland

CANADA

RUSSIA

Alaska

NORWAY

Greenland

CANADA

RUSSIA

Alaska

NORWAY

PROBABILITY OF AT LEASTONE 50 MILLION BARREL

EQUIVALENT FIELD INMARKED SECTOR

100%

50-100%

30-50%

10-30%

<10%

Negligible

RED OVERLAYS =UNDISPUTED

EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES

Arctic Resource Exploitation

Greenland

CANADA

RUSSIA

Alaska

NORWAY

3

PURPLE OVERLAYS =POTENTIAL / FUTURE

EEZ & ECS RESOLUTIONS

44

Security Implications

Implies a National/Global “whole of government” approach

− Food− Water− Shelter− Energy− Health

− Exposure− Sensitivity− Adaptability

− Defense− Diplomacy− Development

− Weather− Ocean− Land− Space

Climate Change ResponseFactorsImpacts

5

Navy Climate Interests

Installations & Environment Impact of sea level rise Water resources Natural & cultural resources

Operations & Plans Increasing Arctic maritime activity Adaptation partnerships opportunities Potential increase in Humanitarian

Assistance/Disaster Response

Wild-cards Ocean acidification Abrupt climate change Geoengineering

It’s all about Readiness … today … and tomorrow5

6

Warfighting First – Operate Forward – Be Ready

Strategic Objectives

8

Ensure U.S. Arctic sovereignty and provide homeland defense Provide ready naval forces to respond to crisis and contingencies to

maintain security and stability Preserve freedom of the seas Promote partnerships within the U.S. Government and international allies

In the near to mid-term, the Navy will concentrate on improving operational capabilities/expertise/capacity, and extending reach. We will engage interagency and international partners to achieve strategic objectives

Maritime Security– Search and Rescue

Sea Control Power Projection

– Freedom of Navigation– Disaster Response/Defense Support of Civil Authorities

Key Missions

What does “militarize the Arctic” mean?

Warfighting First – Operate Forward – Be Ready

Assured C2 – Battlespace Awareness – Integrated Fires 5

Arctic Sea Route Navigability

Recommend ship have minimal ice hardening with icebreaker escort10-40% sea ice

Open Water Navigable by open ocean vessels without icebreaker escort

> 40% sea ice Significant restrictions to navigability

2012

2020

2030

2025

Northern Sea Route (NSR)

Shoulder2012

2020

2030

2025

Transpolar Route (TPR)

Polar routes will gradually open. Transit season is short. Maritime activity growth only 2-4% of global shipping. Will not replace the Suez or Panama Canals as primary shipping routes.

Bering Strait (BS)

2012

2020

2030

2025

(4,170 NM)

(4,740 NM)

2012

2020

2030

2025

Northwest Passage (NWP)

Mid SepLate Aug Early Oct

(5,225 NM)

8 Wks

5 Wks 2 Wks 5 Wks

5 Wks 6 Wks 5 Wks

4 Wks

8 Wks

3 Wks 5 Wks 3 Wks

3 Wks 21 Wks 3 Wks

3 Wks 23 Wks 3 Wks

4 Wks 25 Wks 4 Wks

5 Wks 27 Wks 5 Wks

3 Wks 2 Wks 3 Wks

3 Wks 4 Wks 3 Wks

4 Wks 6 Wks 4 Wks

5 Wks 9 Wks 5 Wks

Early Aug

Mid Sep Mid DecMid Jun

Mid Sep Late Oct

Late Aug Mid Sep Early Oct

Shoulder Shoulder Shoulder

Shoulder ShoulderShoulder ShoulderOpen Water

Open Water

Open Water

Open Water

483 Vessels

1,000 Vessels

44 Vessels

450 Vessels

0 Vessels

100 Vessels

51 Vessels

200 Vessels

Vessel data from ONI