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1 Overview of Commercial Software Development Plans Related to the FEMA P-58 Damage/Loss Methodology Overview of Commercial Software Development Plans Related to the FEMA P-58 Damage/Loss Methodology Curt B. Haselton, PhD, PE CSU, Chico Jack W. Baker, PhD Stanford University U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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2 P-58 is a performance prediction methodology based on a 10-year FEMA study (enabled by much previous research). P-58 is an alternative to other experience-based or judgment-based methods (e.g. HAZUS, ATC-13, etc.). P-58 is tailored to building-specific analysis (as opposed to regional/portfolio analyses). ATC is currently working on another 5-year effort to improving the methodology, implementation, ease of use. The REDi Rating System (this afternoon) uses a modified version of FEMA P-58 as part of the process. Overview of FEMA P-58 U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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3 FEMA P-58 Output Results: Losses ($) [USRC: Repair Cost Rating] Fatalities & injuries [USRC: Safety Rating] Repair time & red tagging [USRC: Recovery Time Rating (some translation required)] Types of analysis results: Intensity-based (e.g. DBE) [USRC Ratings] Time-based (annualized values) Scenario-based (for a given event) Overview of FEMA P-58 U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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4 Sample results (12-story RC frame): FEMA P-58: Output Examples U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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5 Dig as deep as you like FEMA P-58: Output Examples U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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6 Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) FEMA P-58: Methodology U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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7 Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method FEMA P-58: Methodology U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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8 Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction Contents (str. and non-str.) Fragility curves FEMA P-58: Methodology U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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9 FEMA P-58: Methodology U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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10 Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction Contents (str. and non-str.) Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves) and other consequences FEMA P-58: Methodology U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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11 Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction Contents (str. and non-str.) Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves) and other consequences FEMA P-58: Methodology U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development Monte Carlo Simulation used (roll dice thousands of times). Each dice roll gives a single observation of losses (and other consequences). Putting all of the dice rolls together gives solid statistical information on performance.

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12 Objective process based on data and research. Quantitative performance information: Dig as deep as you like. Tools to communicate with owners. Solid statistical basis. FEMA P-58: Benefits U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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13 FEMA P-58: Perceived Difficulty U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development I need to hire a geotech to do this? I need to do a response-history analysis? I need to count and enter every foot of partition wall and other contents? Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction Contents (str. and non-str.) Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves) and other consequences

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14 It may not be as hard to implement FEMA P-58 as some currently perceive it to be. The What If Question: What if we had a stream-lined FEMA P-58 analysis that could be done in hours rather than days (and provide all of the same benefits)? FEMA P-58: Perceived Difficulty U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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15 Most of the barrier to widespread use of FEMA P-58 are related to software and ease-of-use. FEMA and ATC have created a great methodology but are not in the business of maintaining software. FEMA has funded additional ongoing development and is currently working on both the methodology and design aids (to improve ease of use, etc.). For our profession to move forward with use of FEMA P-58 methods someone needs to step-up to provide and maintain enabling software once FEMA/ATC are done with Phase II work. My Thinking Over Past Couple Years U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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16 In February, Jack Baker and I decided to work to fill this needed role by: a)Creating user-friendly software to implement P-58. b)Maintaining software over time (fragilities, etc.). c)Improving and extending the methodology in the future after ATC/FEMA work is done (improvements, comparative methods, etc.). Timing: Our timing lines up with the USRC work, so we would like to help support the USRC process. My Thinking Over Past Couple Years U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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17 Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction Contents (str. and non-str.) Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves) Software Implementation of FEMA P-58 U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development Soil and hazard curves embedded. Simplified method embedded (only need period, mode shape, yield drift). Structural and non- structural contents estimates and pre- populated. Two-level structure: (1) Simple (basic rating, prelim. design, PML) (2) Refine and go as deep as you like (full new PBD).

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18 Status and Timeline: February: Started. April: Secured a National Science Foundation research commercialization grant to help fund. Currently: In active development (Jack, me, others). Fall: Beta release expected this fall. ATC/FEMA: Being done in coordination with ATC (so all pulling in same direction) but not funded by ATC (because needs to become a commercial tool to be sustainable). Status and Timeline U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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19 Draft SP3 Tool U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development

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20 We want to support and enable the USRC rating system effort as best as possible. We are still in active development, so please: Let us know how we can tailor things to be most useful to the USRC effort. Give us any other feedback/thoughts (we are all ears!). E-mail: curt@hbrisk.com, chaselton@csuchico.edu Cell: (530) 514-8980 Next Steps U.S. Resiliency Council Presentation on Software Development