1

Monetary Base Graph

2

M1 Graph

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Money Supply Comments

• Money supply is believed to be important.

• While Fed is in entire control of the monetary base, M1 and M2 are considered more useful in controlling the real sector.

• Note that most of the money supply aggregates that comprise M1 and M2 are determined by private decisions which the Fed can’t precisely control (but can influence via the monetary base).

• Thus, the Fed, via the monetary base, can only imprecisely control M1 and M2.

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Actual Fed Funds Rates 1954-2008

5

Fed Funds Rates 2004-2008

6

Target Rate vs. Actual Sep07 to Sep08

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Monetarist Economists

• Monetarists believe

– key explanatory variable is the money supply

– people will buy more if feel they have “more money,” and spend less if feel they have “less money.”

– idea is to use monetary policy to influence the money supply.

– in this way, adding reserves should promote economic growth, reducing reserves should slow the economy.

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Keynesian Economists

• Keynesians believe – key explanatory variable is the interest rate

– John Maynard Keynes was influential British economist of 1930s.

– money supply does not make that much difference

– believe economic growth is stimulated by falling interest rates, and slowed by rising rates

Dates

03/17/08 Bear Stearns (taken over by JP Morgan Chase and government guarantees)

09/07/08 Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac (conservatorship)

09/15/08 Lehman Brothers (bankruptcy)09/16/08 AIG (kept alive by US government and

Federal Reserve)09/21/08 Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley become

bank holding companies09/25/08 Washington Mutual (receivership by FDIC

and then bankruptcy, formerly 6th largest US bank)

12/31/08 Wachovia (taken over by Wells Fargo, formerly 4th largest US bank)

01/01/09 Merrill Lynch (saved from failure by being purchased by Bank of America)

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10

Fed Balance Sheet (millions), April 2009

Gold & Coin

15,107

Loans to depository institutions

-

Repurchase agreements

0

US treasury securities

534,969

Agency securities

64,511

MBS

367,590

Term Auction Facility (TAF)

455,799

CP Facility

242,431

Maiden Lane & related

72,163

Other loans

102,988

Other

342,711

2,198,269

Assets Liabilities & Capital

Federal Reserve Notes

862,960

Rev Repurchase agreements

64,681

Deposits

Depository inst balances

915,773

US Treasury

295,399

Other 13,456

Capital

46,000

2,198,269

9/26

Subprime Lending

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Although definition varies, subprime lending is to people with a FICO score of less than 640.

Subprime Mortgages

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• teaser rates• pick-a-pay• interest only• no down payment

When rates would reset, told can either sell at profit (because housing prices would go up) or refinance.

But prices went down in 2006. Couldn’t pay mortgage, couldn’t refinance. Mortgage bond holders (many of which were financial institutions) suffered huge losses.

Mortgage bonds became toxic securities (nobody would buy them).

Term Auction Facility

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As subprime problem arose in late 2007, banks began to encounter liquidity problems. Overwhelmed discount window.

In Dec 2007, Fed suspended traditional discount window operations in favor of Term Auction Facility (TAF):

• rather than just overnight, made 28 and 84-day loans• accepted other securities, rather than just Treasuries

and agency securities, as collateral.• originally for depository institutions, extended to non-

bank financial institutions. • no new loans after March 2010

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Commercial Paper• Unsecured promissory notes that mature before nine

months (270 days).

• Proceeds can only be used for operating purposes (inventories, receivables) and not for fixed assets (land, buildings, machinery).

• Issued by 600 to 800 corporations.

• Sold at discount, mature at par.• Some sold by direct placement, but most sold through

dealers .

• Dealers charge something like one-tenth to one-eighth of a percent of face value to underwrite an issue for a firm.

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CP Backup Lines of Credit• Except for a few highly-rated firms, usually not

possible for an issuer to sell CP without a backup line of credit.

• Backup line of credit is agreement by which a bank will lend an issuer, if needed, the money necessary to redeem maturing paper.

• Makes purchasers feel more secure in the event issuer is not able to “roll over” maturing CP (i.e., sell new CP to pay off old CP).

• Banks charge 10 to 12.5 basis points (on an annual basis) of par amount for backup lines of credit, then market interest rate if money is actually borrowed.

• Average CP maturity is about 30 days• In financial crisis, were difficult to roll over

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CP

• Rated: prime, desirable, satisfactory. P-1, P-2, P-3 (Moody’s) A-1, A-2, A-3 (S&P’s)

• Virtually impossible to sell unrated commercial paper

• Advantage of CP: low interest rates

• About 30 commercial paper dealers.

• There is a secondary market and issuers sometimes buy back their commercial paper. Transaction costs in range of about one-eighth of one percent per annum.

• Normal US CP: up to $1 trillion outstanding at any moment.

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Asset-Backed Commercial Paper

• In addition to normal commercial paper, there is asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP).

• Typical maturities of ABCP a little longer: 90 to 180 days

• In run up to financial crisis, issued by up to 1,000 special purpose vehicles to help buy pools of mortgages, car loans, student loans, credit card receivables, etc., but mostly mortgages.

• Before financial crisis struck, up to $1 trillion of US ABCP outstanding.

• Then couldn’t roll over, so Fed had to step in.

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Fed Balance Sheet, September 10, 2015

Gold & Coin

12,926

Loans to depository institutions

247

Repurchase agreements

0

US Treasury securities

2,461,943

Agency securities

35,093

MBS

1,736,706

Term Auction Facility (TAF)

-

CP Facility

-

Maiden Lane & related

1,703

Other loans

- Other

229,595

4,478,213

Assets Liabilities & Capital

Federal Reserve Notes

1,342,139

Rev Repurchase agreements

228,052

Deposits

Depository inst balances

2,734,650

US Treasury

76,252

Other

38,832

Capital

58,288 4,478,213

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k = 10%

Open Market Injection of $30 Billion

10/3

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Technical Factors

Cash drains – increased cash holdings by public decrease banking system reserves. Example:

People take money out of their checking accounts in advance of a big weekend.

Reduces vault cashBanks have harder time meeting RRsPuts upward pressure on Fed Funds rate Fed does

Repurchase Agreement to increase temporarily depository institution reserves

Puts downward pressure on Fed Funds rate

US Treasury transactions -- many such transactions cause shifts in reserves. Fed often offsets with carefully calibrated open market transactions (typically with repos and reverse repos)

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Velocity of Money

• Velocity is annual money supply turnover rate.

• Velocity * Money supply = GDP

• Velocity is difficult to predict.

• For given change in money supply, the Fed can expect direction of change in economy, but cannot ensure the degree.

Hedge Funds

Hedge -- an investment intended to offset adverse price movements in another investment.

A basic hedging strategy is pair trading. Involves matching a long position with a short position.

Funds use math and statistics to identify pairs with good spread reversion characteristics. Done with stocks, options, commodities, currencies, etc.

By law, hedge funds only offered to institutional investors or individuals of substantial wealth. Government then doesn’t regulate much.

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