1ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

The “Outstanding” potential bioterror AgentsThe “Outstanding” potential bioterror Agents

BacterialBacterial

Anthrax (Outdoor Resistance, was weaponized)- Used in the envelopes attack.

Plague (Contagious, unstable was weaponized).

ViralViral

Smallpox (Outdoor Resistance, very Contagious, was weaponized)- The next threat?

Influenza (Very Contagious was not weaponized)-Emerging threat?

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Natural Sources Natural Sources Recent VHF outbreaks in AFRICARecent VHF outbreaks in AFRICA

YearDiseaseCountry

1982DengueKenya

1980 & 1987MarburgKenya

1992-1993Yellow feverKenya

1995EbolaDR Congo

1998Rift Valley feverK, Ug, Tz

1999-2000MarburgDR Congo

2000-2001EbolaUganda

2003Yellow feverSudan

2004EbolaSudan

Source: Viruses in Uganda, Dr. Julius Julian Lutwama

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The African SupermarketThe African SupermarketGroupArbovirus

Alphavirus Chikungunya,O’nyong-nyong, Semliki Forest, Sindbis,

Bunyavirus Bunyamwera, Bwamba, Germiston, Ilesha, Nyando, Pongola, Witwatersrand

Flavivirus Dakar Bat, Entebbe Bat, Kadam, Uganda S, Usutu, Yellow Fever, Zika, Dengue

Iridovirus African Swine fever

Orbivirus Blue Tongue, Orungo

NairovirusCongo, Dugbe, Nairobi Sheep Disease,

PhlebovirusRift Valley fever

OrthomyxovirusThogoto

Kasokero

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““Political” SourcesPolitical” Sources

The rogue states (Iran, North Korea) that sponsor terrorism and have non-conventional capability are a major NCT concern.

Special concern are unstable, failed states that “host” terror groups and have access to non-conventional weapons. (e.g. Pakistan)

The linkage between terror organizations, non-conventional capability, failed states and rogue states demands awareness and cooperation of the international community.

ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

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Casualty Assessment (The case of Anthrax)Casualty Assessment (The case of Anthrax)

Literature Estimations

a. 50 Kg of anthrax dispersed in a stadium through air- condition system could effect 70,000-80,000 people

(Purver, 1995)

b. 30 Kg of anthrax dispersed from a scud-type missile 30,000- 100,000 casualties (OTA, 1992)

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Casualty Assessment (cont.)Casualty Assessment (cont.)

Present Estimations

A. Closed theatre Scenario – Dispersion of Anthrax in a small/medium size theatre (12m x 25m x 5m) all people(~300) will be

effected by high dosage of the agent .

B. Explosive point source-20 liter of Anthrax (10-30 people per 1000m2)

concentration meteorological Affected area casualties) spore/liter (Stability (m2)

1010 D4 < 1000 < 30

1011 D4 1000-2000 ~30-60

1011 E2 ~ 3000 ~ 90

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Ebola outbreak in Uganda 2000-2001Ebola outbreak in Uganda 2000-2001

On 8 October 2000 an unusual febrile illness with occasional haemorrhage and significant mortality was reported.

Experts and the Central Public Health Laboratory were sent to make a preliminary assessment of the situation.

Blood specimens were collected from suspected patients and health care workers and sent for identification.

ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

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Confirmation of outbreakConfirmation of outbreak

The team advised immediate isolation of suspected patients.

On 14 October 2000 the suspicion was confirmed that it was Ebola haemorrhagic Fever.(EHF)

ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

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Progression of the outbreakProgression of the outbreak

The number of people admitted with EHF daily increased in the first three weeks of October. The peak was reached in mid October.

This was the first time Ebola had emerged in a densely populated area with good transport links and so had a potential of spreading rapidly.

ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

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The Ebola Epidemic – Main The Ebola Epidemic – Main OutcomesOutcomes Uganda was declared Ebola free on February 27, 42

days after the last patient recovered. The Ebola in Uganda started Oct. 2000 had lasted 6

months. The virus had infected 428 people, killed 173, and left

behind 555 orphans below 18 years of age. Many of the health workers were effected and died. The

hardest hands on workers are exposed and endangered .

Ebola roumours came from all over the country, but laboratory testing ruled out all cases except at Gulu, Mbarara and Masindi.

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In ConclusionIn Conclusion

ICTAF – Interdisciplinary Center for Technological Analysis and Forecasting

1. WMDs - will be the second choice Mass distraction can be achieved by conventional means.

2. NCT – Will result in relative small number of casualties but with high economical and psychological impact

3. Defense effort should concentrate mainly againts bioterrorism.

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In ConclusionIn Conclusion

4. Anthrax will continue to be the preferred agent

by terrorists:

- It is available, stable, threatening and lethal.

- “Proved” itself as weapon of mass impact (economically psychologically)

- All superpowers developed it as weapon of mass casualties.

- Mass vaccination is difficult.

- However –Medical treatment possible with antibiotics.

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In ConclusionIn Conclusion

- Smallpox is attractive for terrorizing unvaccinated population - Is it available? The return of mass vaccination. (known to be only in the hands of WHO depositories

- The potentially dangerous African Natural Bio-agent Super market: should be closely monitored.