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Transcript of 1 Human Populations. Population Clocks /popclock.html U.S. 313,293,842 World 7,004,581,878 05:36...
1
Human Populations
Population Clockshttp://www.census.gov/main/
www/popclock.htmlU.S. 313,293,842
World 7,004,581,87805:36 UTC (EST+5) Apr 03,
2012
3
Human Population Levels Throughout History
ADD FIG. 4.2
Current World Birth and Death Rates
• Every second: about 4 children are born, while about 2 other people die
In 2010• Net gain: 2.3 humans were added to the
world population every second • 227,000/day
• 83 million more people in one year
Rank Country or Area Population1 China 1,323,591,5832 India 1,156,897,7663 United States 307,212,1234 Indonesia 240,271,5225 Brazil 198,739,2696 Pakistan 174,578,5587 Bangladesh 156,050,8838 Nigeria 149,229,0909 Russia 140,041,247
10 Japan 127,078,67911 Mexico 111,211,78912 Philippines 97,976,60313 Vietnam 88,576,75814 Ethiopia 85,237,33815 Germany 82,329,75816 Egypt 78,866,63517 Turkey 76,805,52418 Congo (Kinshasa) 68,692,54219 Iran 66,429,28420 Thailand 65,998,436
Rank Country or Area Population1 India 1,656,553,6322 China 1,303,723,3323 United States 439,010,2534 Indonesia 313,020,8475 Ethiopia 278,283,1376 Pakistan 276,428,7587 Nigeria 264,262,4058 Brazil 260,692,4939 Bangladesh 233,587,279
10 Congo (Kinshasa) 189,310,84911 Philippines 171,964,18712 Mexico 147,907,65013 Egypt 137,872,52214 Uganda 128,007,51415 Vietnam 111,173,58316 Russia 109,187,35317 Turkey 100,955,18818 Japan 93,673,82619 Sudan 88,227,76120 Iran 81,490,039
2010 Population Numbers by Country 2060 (estimated)
6
ADD TABLE 4.1
7
Human Population Levels Throughout History
ADD FIG. 4.2
Exponential Growth = the increase in a population (biotic potential) assumes no resource limitations. Example: Bacterial Growth
Carrying Capacity = Maximum population an ecosystem can maintain on a sustainable basis
Fur Seals were almost hunted to extinction.
10
World Population Growth 1750 - 2100
High
Medium
Low
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
21950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
High10.9
Medium9.3
Low7.3
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(b
illio
ns)
2000 Projected Population Growth
Oops…By 2012 we have already exceeded 7 billion
Factors Affecting Natural Rate of Increase
Developed Countries50
40
30
20
10
017751800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Rate ofnatural increase
birth rate
death rate
Rate of natural increase Rate of natural increase = birth rate = birth rate ––death rate death rate
Developing Countries50
40
30
20
10
017751800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
peo
ple birth rate
Rate ofnaturalincrease
death rate
Year
© 2004 B
roo
ks/Co
le – Th
om
son
Learn
ing
Age Cohorts = allows a study of the # ofindividuals of the same age group and sex
It helps to plan for the different needs of the parts of a population, like children or old people.
So, the rate of growth declines, but the population still grows quickly. Why?
15
Regional Declines in Total Fertility Rates
We hope it continues to decline!
Births per woman
< 2
2-2.9
3-3.9
4-4.9
5+
Data notavailable
Fertility Rate per Woman
Primary Education Completion Rate 1995-2001
19
Education and Fertility Rates
CIESIN 2005% of Children aged 0-5 years
Underweight in 2000
Africa has the most severe nutrition problem
Under-5 mortality 2003 (WHO 2006 Annual Report)
World Health Organization data 2001 (from Global Health Council http://www.globalhealth.org)
Leading Causes of Death in Children (<5y/o)
Role of malnutrition - 2001Perinatal Perinatal (22%)(22%)
All other All other causes (29%)causes (29%)
HIV / AIDS HIV / AIDS (4%)(4%)Diarrhea Diarrhea
(12%)(12%)
Measles (5%)
Malaria Malaria (8%)(8%)
Pneumonia Pneumonia (20%)(20%)
MalnutritionMalnutritionunderlying underlying
factor (60%)factor (60%)
What are the principal factors associated with child mortality?
1. Education
2. Nutrition
3. Family income
4. Water, Sanitation, housing
5. Health Care
6. War and violence
7. Inequality
Common denominator: Poverty and Disparity
NYT Feb 11, 2001
FOOD INSECURITYand OBESITY
linked to RISING INEQUALITY
Do we have the resources to improve basic conditions globally?
Cosmetics (USA)
Ice cream (EU)
Perfumes (USA & EU)
Pet foods (USA & EU)
Business entertainment (Japan)
Cigarettes (EU)
Alcoholic drinks (EU)
Narcotics (global)
Military (global)
8111217
3550
105400780
Basic education
Water & sanitation
Reproductive health services
Basic health and nutrition
Source: Human Development Report 1998, Chapter 1, p.37, UNDP
6
9
12
13
1998 spending ( $Billions ) Cost for universal access
NYT 071107
Decisions on how many children to have are influenced by many factors, including culture, religion, politics, need for old-age security, and immediate family finances.
31
China's one-child-per-family policy decreased the country's fertility rate from 6 to 1.8 in twodecades.
However, the policy is very controversial.
32
Fig. 4.13
The US is #1 !
• Not only in military spending but:• The US has the highest fertility rates
of any 1st world nations.• The US also has the highest infant
mortality rates of any 1st world nation.
• The US has the highest STD rate of any 1st world nation
2011 - world's top 15 military spenders
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
US Arms Sales
US Arms industry is larger than rest of world combined
Every year the US sells over $6 Billion of arms to poor countries
Lucrative industry – little regulation
SCF State of the World's Mothers 2004
In Phillips County,Arkansas, the birth rate among teenage girls in 2000 was 127 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19 - a rate higher than in 94 developing countries.
A fifth of 20-yr old women who gave birthin the US gave birth did so in their teens
Birth rates per 1000 women aged 15-19
Infant Mortality Rate, 2002
* 2001.Data: International estimates—OECD Health Data 2005;State estimates—National Vital Statistics System, Linked Birth and Infant Death Data (AHRQ 2005a).
2.2
3.0 3.03.3 3.5
4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.55.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.6
7.0
0
5
10
Infa
nt
de
ath
s p
er 1
,000
liv
e b
irth
s
International variation
Source: Commonwealth Fund National Scorecard on U.S. Health System Performance, 2006 7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Japan
France
Germany
Spain
Greece
UK
Czech Republic
Portugal
Belgium
Hungary
Italy
Denmark
Netherlans
Australia
Poland
Canada
Korea
New Zealand
USA
*Austria, Finland, Ireland, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland had fewer than 20 deaths reported and therefore rates were not calculated.
Youth violence Olympics—Homicide rates among youth aged 10-29 (most recent year available) from the World Health Organizations’ World Report on Violence and Health, 2002*
Krug et. al. 2002
United Nations Human Development Report 2007
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
Lif
e E
xp
ecta
ncy (
years
)
510
1520
25
30
HEALTH OLYMPICS 2005
UN Human Development report 2007
Life Expectancy (years) - Top 30 Nations
http://ucatlas.ucsc.edu/
The US spends more than 2 – 100x/ person on health care than other nations but with a lower life expectancy than most 1st world nations.
GLOBAL Health: A Take Home Message is Sharing.
• The health of populations is determined mostly by how well that population’s resources are shared and •early childhood is most important period.
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about it?