1 Higher Education and Florida’s Economy in 2027 Mark Rosenberg, Chancellor, State University...

1

Higher Education and Florida’s Economy in 2027

Mark Rosenberg, Chancellor, State University SystemJudy Genshaft, President, University of South Florida

Joe Shepard, VP for Administration and Finance, Florida Gulf Coast University

August 1, 2007

2

• Where Will the State Get 10 Million Graduates?

• What Quality Should Students

Expect?

• How Will Their Education be

Financed?

Three Key QuestionsThree Key Questions

3

• 2 + 2 System Works – Strong Partner Relationship with Community Colleges

• Accountability is the Cornerstone of Any Effective System—We Are Performance Oriented

• Cheaper is Not Always Better

Operating AssumptionsOperating Assumptions

4

One Million More 18-34 Year-Olds One Million More 18-34 Year-Olds by 2027by 2027

8% 4% 5% 7%16%

9%3%

-5%

18%10%

22% 25% 24% 22% 21% 26% 29% 26%

11%

100%

37%

8%

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-17 18-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 65+ All

20122027

SUS AGE GROUPS

5

18-34 Population by 18-34 Population by Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity

25%

3%

52%

25%20%

3%

51%

30%

21%

4%

45%

20%

Hispanic Black non-Hispanic

Other non-Hispanic

White non-Hispanic

200720122027

6

Minority Participation Rates Will Minority Participation Rates Will Shape the FutureShape the Future

7

How Much Education Do We How Much Education Do We Expect for Today’s Newborns?Expect for Today’s Newborns?

2027SUS

Bachelor

Degrees

2027SUS

Enroll-ment

2027SUS Core

Budget (Billions

)

Increase

2007 Baseline 46,000 294,000 $ 3.0 -Status Quo: No change

in student achievement

56,000 369,000 $ 3.8 26%

1/3 of children complete college 63,000 413,000 $ 4.2 41%

1/2 of children complete college 95,000

627,0

00 $ 6.4 113%

Does not include future inflation. Based on current funding/student. Add 12% to reach national average level of funding.

8

Quality Suffers When Funding Quality Suffers When Funding Lags Lags

Behind Rising Enrollment and Behind Rising Enrollment and CostsCosts

$10,500

$11,000

$11,500

$12,000

$12,500

$13,000

$13,500

$14,000

$14,500

198

8-89

198

9-90

199

0-91

199

1-92

199

2-93

199

3-94

199

4-95

199

5-96

199

6-97

199

7-98

199

8-99

199

9-00

200

0-01

200

1-02

200

2-03

200

3-04

200

4-05

200

5-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

est

Sta

te F

unds

and T

uitio

n p

er F

TE

Stu

den

t

17

19

21

23

25

27

Stu

den

ts P

er T

enure

d/T

enure

-Tra

ck

Facu

lty

State Funds and Tuition per FTE Student

Students per faculty

Constant 2005-06 dollars, adjusted using the Higher Education Price Index at www.commonfund.org. Full- and part-time tenured and tenure track and multi-year contract faculty

http://www.commonfund.org/

9

Sources of the $8.2 Billion Sources of the $8.2 Billion Operating BudgetOperating Budget

53.8%

Auxiliaries (Housing, Food

Service, Parking)

11%

Local Funds (Athletics,

Financial Aid Flow-Through (State/Federal)

21%

Faculty Practice (Patient Fees,

Hospitals)7%

State Funds: General Revenue

27%

State Funds: Lottery

3%

Tuition and Fees11%

Contracts & Grants (Mostly

Federal) for Research

20%

10

Expenditures from the Core Expenditures from the Core BudgetBudget

Instruction and Research

63%

Libraries4%

Plant Operations and Maintenance

10%

Student Svcs.6%

Administration and Support

11%

Institutes & Centers

3%

Clinics1%

Museums/Radio/TV1%

Extension1%

11

Public Education

Capital Outlay (PECO) from Utilities and Commun-

ications Taxes89%

General Revenue

(Primarily for Matching Private

Donations)8%

Other1%

Lottery (Primarily Matching Funds for Private

Donations)2%

Sources of State Funds for Sources of State Funds for Construction: $4 Billion from Construction: $4 Billion from

1996-20081996-2008

12

• Approx. $20,000 annually in additional earnings over HS Diploma ($16,000 for women, $24,000 for men)

• =$2,000 more in annual state/local taxes

• =$50,000 more in state/local taxes over 25 years

• 50,000 annual degrees = $25 billion more in career income, $2.5 billion in long-term state/local tax revenue

The ROI: Economic Impact of a The ROI: Economic Impact of a Bachelor DegreeBachelor Degree

14

Recommendation #1: Revise Recommendation #1: Revise Current Use of Lottery Current Use of Lottery Funds/Bright FuturesFunds/Bright Futures

• Limit future growth of Bright Futures.

• Enhance need-based aid

• Increase funds to match private gifts to universities

15

• Protect Higher Education’s Share of Public Education Capital Outlay (PECO)

• Consider tax on services that require postsecondary credentials

• Consider additional tobacco tax (applied to manufacturers exempt from settlement)

Recommendation #2: Use Recommendation #2: Use Dedicated Funding Streams to Dedicated Funding Streams to

Improve PredictabilityImprove Predictability

16

• $500-$1 billion annual loan volume

• Low interest, no principal repayments until income exceeds $30,000

• 1/3 forgivable for working in Florida five years

• 1/3 forgivable for working in a priority occupation for five years

Recommendation #3: Create Recommendation #3: Create Large Forgivable Loan ProgramLarge Forgivable Loan Program

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20%

31%

20%

17%

38%

19%

24%

59%

26%

17%

Faculty salaries

Administrative Salaries

Clerical Salaries

Service Employee Salaries

Fringe Benefits

Misc. Services

Supplies and Material

Utilities

Higher Education Price Index

Consumer Price Index

College and University Cost College and University Cost Increases 2001-2007, U.S. Increases 2001-2007, U.S.

AveragesAverages

19

Average Earnings Increase by Average Earnings Increase by Highest Degree Attained (U.S.), Highest Degree Attained (U.S.),

1991-20051991-2005

36%

34%

40%

47%

51%

50%

40%

42%

36%

45%

47%

54%

HS Diploma

Some College

Associate

Bachelor Degree

Masters

Doctorate

Men Women

National Center for Education Statistics, Condition of Education 2006

20

SUS Expenditures per SUS Expenditures per Full-Time Student, 2001-02 to Full-Time Student, 2001-02 to

2006-072006-07

Board of Governors, State University System of Board of Governors, State University System of FloridaFlorida

Instruction and

research per FTE

Admin and Support per FTE

2001-02 $8,663 $1,651

2006-07 $8,220 $1,437

5-Year Change -5% -13%

21

Change in Southern States’ Change in Southern States’ Spending per Student on Public Spending per Student on Public

Universities, 2001-2006Universities, 2001-2006


Georgia

VirginiaWest Virginia

ArkansasMississippi

Maryland

North CarolinaOklahomaTennesseeAlabamaTexas

KentuckyLouisiana

DelawareSouth Carolina

SREB states

Florida

($2,000) ($1,000) $0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000

22

Total Funding per Full-Time Equivalent Total Funding per Full-Time Equivalent Student—History and Current Student—History and Current

SituationSituation


$10,000

$11,000

$12,000

$13,000

$14,000

$15,000

Post 9/11 cuts

No cut-4%

-10%Lottery introduced to enhance education funds

Recession

CURRENT OPTIONS

Constant 2005-06 dollars per FTE

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$10,500

$11,000

$11,500

$12,000

$12,500

$13,000

$13,500

$14,000

$14,500

198

8-89

198

9-90

199

0-91

199

1-92

199

2-93

199

3-94

199

4-95

199

5-96

199

6-97

199

7-98

199

8-99

199

9-00

200

0-01

200

1-02

200

2-03

200

3-04

200

4-05

200

5-06

2006

-07

2007

-08

estSta

te F

unds

and T

uitio

n p

er F

TE

Stu

den

t

17

19

21

23

25

27

Stu

den

ts P

er T

enure

d/T

enure

-Tra

ck

Facu

lty

State Funds and Tuition per FTE Student

Students per faculty

Funding per Full-Time Equivalent Funding per Full-Time Equivalent Student and Student/Faculty RatiosStudent and Student/Faculty Ratios


24

4% Reductions We Can’t Afford4% Reductions We Can’t Afford

• 17,000 Students . . . or

• University of North Florida . . . or

• 1,000 faculty . . . or

• All four law schools and all 10 history departments . . . or

• All travel, library purchases, and ??? (still not 4%)


25

10% Reductions We Can’t Afford10% Reductions We Can’t Afford

• 42,000 Students . . . or

• FIU . . . or

• IFAS and all four law schools . . . or

• All assistant professors . . . or

• All 10 business schools . . .


26

Scale of 4% and 10% Cuts in Scale of 4% and 10% Cuts in Operational TermsOperational Terms


4% 10%

Budget Cut Amount$100,000,

000 $250,000,

000

equivalent toEnrollment Reduction 17,000 42,000

orFaculty Reduction 1,000 2,500

orLibrary Books not Purchased 1,500,000 3,700,000

orSupport Personnel: Police Officers, Counselors, Advisors, Other Student Support 2,000 5,000

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EfficiencyEfficiency


28

Florida’s Graduation Rates are Florida’s Graduation Rates are High Relative to FundingHigh Relative to Funding


Funds per FTE (05-06)

Graduation Rate %, (99-05)

Virginia 12,259 65.5Delaware 20,293 64.5South Carolina 14,218 59.7North Carolina 13,496 59.1

Florida 11,808 58.8Maryland 16,562 58.6Texas 12,339 55.0Alabama 12,137 48.6Georgia 11,621 48.3Mississippi 12,554 48.2Tennessee 11,818 46.4Kentucky 14,288 45.9Oklahoma 10,573 45.9West Virginia 9,347 45.4Arkansas 11,939 38.8Louisiana 9,002 35.7SREB states 12,327 52.5

US Avg 54.1

Notes:

1)Average % of freshmen who graduated from the same institution within six years.Including in-system transfers, the six-year SUS graduation rate is 63.7%, but comparable data not available for other states.

2)The average time from freshman enrollment to degree is 4.2 years.

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Comparison of Direct and Indirect Comparison of Direct and Indirect Expenditures Per CreditExpenditures Per Credit


INDIRECT EXPENDITURES

2001-02 2004-05 2005-061 YEAR

CHANGE4 YEAR

CHANGELower $103.25 $95.82 $96.47 0.7% -6.6%Upper $132.39 $124.21 $122.07 -1.7% -7.8%Grad I $193.98 $179.95 $186.15 3.4% -4.0%

Grad II $247.14 $234.65 $229.78 -2.1% -7.0%

DIRECT EXPENDITURES

2001-02 2004-05 2005-061 YEAR

CHANGE4 YEAR

CHANGELower $88.41 $83.00 $85.49 3.0% -3.3%Upper $145.54 $141.59 $137.39 -3.0% -5.6%Grad I $339.10 $336.22 $335.24 -0.3% -1.1%

Grad II $601.19 $580.91 $531.59 -8.5% -11.6%

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Inflation-Adjusted Spending Per Inflation-Adjusted Spending Per Upper-Division Credit HourUpper-Division Credit Hour


2001-02

2004-05

2005-06

4-Year

Change

AGRIBUSINESS & AG. PRODUCTN $475 $445 $398 -16%

ARCHITECTURE & ENVIR. DESIGN $429 $341 $392 -8%

MASS COMMUNICATIONS $226 $229 $249 10%COMPUTER & INFO.

SCIENCE $260 $360 $370 42%EDUCATION $304 $272 $248 -18%

ENGINEERING $485 $442 $400 -17%FOREIGN LANGUAGES $263 $245 $237 -10%

LETTERS $236 $240 $236 0%LIFE SCIENCES $317 $290 $309 -2%

PHYSICAL SCIENCES $468 $445 $435 -7%PSYCHOLOGY $232 $205 $210 -10%

SOCIAL SCIENCES $250 $212 $215 -14%VISUAL AND PERF. ARTS $407 $387 $363 -11%

HEALTH PROFESSIONS $353 $329 $285 -19%BUS.AND MANAGEMENT $199 $199 $201 1%

Total $278 $266 $259 -7%

31

Funding ComparisonsFunding Comparisons


32

Funding Change for Public Funding Change for Public Universities, Florida and SREB Universities, Florida and SREB

States, 2001-2006States, 2001-2006


From Southern Regional Education Board (SREB), Florida Featured Facts 2007

33

Cuts Would Further Erode Cuts Would Further Erode Florida’s Relative Position in the Florida’s Relative Position in the

SouthSouth


Southern States Public University Funding per Full-Time Student, 2005-06 (Thousands)

$5.1$3.8

$5.7$7.5$8.0$7.7$8.3

$6.3$7.0

$6.3$5.7

$6.8$6.6$6.5

$9.2$4.8

$7.1$7.9

$6.8

$3.9$5.5

$4.8$3.5

$3.5$3.9$3.5

$5.5$5.0

$5.9$6.6

$5.5$5.7$6.1

$4.3$9.5

$7.2$8.7

$13.5

LouisianaWest Virginia

OklahomaFlorida after 10%

Florida after 4% cutGeorgiaFlorida

TennesseeArkansasAlabamaVirginia

SREB statesTexas

MississippiNorth CarolinaSouth Carolina

KentuckyMarylandDelaware

Appropriations

Tuition and Fees

34

Cuts Would Further Erode Cuts Would Further Erode Florida’s Relative Position in the Florida’s Relative Position in the

SouthSouth


Southern States Public University Funding per Full-Time Student, 2005-06 (Thousands)

$5.1

$3.8

$7.7

$8.3

$6.8

$7.9

$6.8

$3.9

$5.5

$3.5

$3.5

$3.9

$3.5

$5.5

$8.7

$13.5

$7.5

$8.0

Louisiana (#16)

West Virginia (#15)

Florida after 10% cut

Florida after 4% cut

Georgia (#13)

Florida (#12)

SREB average

Maryland (#2)

Delaware (#1)

Appropriations

Tuition and Fees

35

Change in Southern States’ Change in Southern States’ Spending Per FTE University Spending Per FTE University

StudentStudent


2005-06 2000-01 ChangeSouth Carolina 14,218 11,081 3,137Delaware 20,293 17,934 2,360Louisiana 9,002 7,987 1,016Kentucky 14,288 13,434 855Texas 12,339 11,609 730Alabama 12,137 11,483 654Tennessee 11,818 11,263 555Oklahoma 10,573 10,074 499North Carolina 13,496 13,049 447SREB states 12,327 11,974 353Maryland 16,562 16,242 320Mississippi 12,554 12,436 118Arkansas 11,939 11,861 79West Virginia 9,347 9,356 -9Virginia 12,259 12,618 -359Florida 11,808 12,488 -680Georgia 11,621 13,191 -1,570

36

Funding HistoryFunding History


37

Inflation-Adjusted Funding Per Inflation-Adjusted Funding Per FTE Compared to 1991 LevelsFTE Compared to 1991 Levels


Public Schools

Comm. Colls

SUS

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

198

2-83

198

5-86

198

8-89

199

1-92

199

4-95

199

7-98

200

0-01

200

3-04

2006

-07

38

Library Cost Increases--ExamplesLibrary Cost Increases--Examples


2000 2007Increa

se

Average Print Journal Subscription Price $370 $ 635 71%

Statewide Contracts for Electronic Journals/Databases (FL Center For Library Automation)

2000 2007Increa

se

Cost of Databases/Journals Maintained in 2000 $1,600,000

$ 2,000,00

0 23%

New Databases/Journals - 1,300,00

0

Total 1,600,000

3,300,00

0 107%

39

Impact of Current Funding LevelsImpact of Current Funding Levels


40

Beginning Spanish Section SizesBeginning Spanish Section Sizes


0 10 20 30 40 50

FIUUCF

UNC AshvilleMiami University, Ohio

UFFSU

UNC Chapel HillClemson

Emory

Average Class Size Maximum Class Size

41

Freshman Composition Section Freshman Composition Section SizesSizes


0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

FIU

UCF

Georgia Tech

FSU

Ohio State U

Miami University, Ohio

U of Mississippi

UNC Asheville

UF

UNC Chapel Hill


42

Organic Chemistry Section SizesOrganic Chemistry Section Sizes


0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

UCFOhio State U

UFGeorgia Tech

UNC Chapel HillFIUUSF

EmoryU of Mississippi

ClemsonMiami University, Ohio

UNC Ashville


43

Physical Chemistry Section SizesPhysical Chemistry Section Sizes


0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Georgia TechOhio State U

U of MississippiUNC Chapel

FSUUF

EmoryUCFFIUUSF

UNC Asheville


44

Intro Biology Section SizesIntro Biology Section Sizes


0 100 200 300 400 500

UF

UCF

FIU

Miami University, Ohio

USF

UNC Asheville


45

Business Plan / Tuition FreezeBusiness Plan / Tuition Freeze


46

What Would it Take to Increase What Would it Take to Increase Funding 8% Annually?Funding 8% Annually?


Combinations leading to an 8% average increase, assuming 2% enrollment growth:

Opt. 1

Opt. 2 Opt. 3

Opt. 4

Opt. 5

State funds increase 0% 5% 7.5% 8.5%

10.5%

Average tuition increase 18% 12% 7.5% 5% 0%

Average revenue increase 8% 8% 8%* 8% 8%

Note that a tuition increase of 7.5% with enrollment growth of 2% would generate tuition revenue growth of 9.5%

47

Effect of Growth Freezes on Effect of Growth Freezes on Total System Enrollment Total System Enrollment

(1000s)(1000s)


200

7 2008 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Meet all growth in demand (no freeze)

302 310 318

325

331 337 341 344

Freshman growth freeze only

299 303 307

311

315 318 320 323

Freeze new student growth at all levels except AA transfers

299 302 305

308

310 312 314 315

Freeze all new admissions

298 300 301

301

301 301 301 301

Reduce admissions 1% per year, increase retention rate 1% per year

298 300 301

301

301 301 301 301

48

Effect of Freezing Effect of Freezing Freshman Enrollment Freshman Enrollment

GrowthGrowth


2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014

Growth at same rate as Bright Futures / HS graduates

31,100

38,500

38,300

40,900

42,500

44,300

44,500

44,600

No growth in freshman class

31,100

38,500

38,300

38,300

38,300

38,300

38,300

38,300

Difference 0 0 02,60

04,20

06,00

06,20

06,40

0

49

System Enrollment (1000s) System Enrollment (1000s) Based on Selected Based on Selected

Policy/Budget ScenariosPolicy/Budget Scenarios


290300310320330340350

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014MEET ALL GROWTH IN DEMAND (NO FREEZE)

FRESHMAN FREEZE ONLY

FREEZE ALL LEVELS EXCEPT AA TRANSFERS

FREEZE ALL NEW ADMISSIONS

REDUCE ADMISSIONS 1% PER YEAR, ANNUALLY,INCREASE RETENTION RATE 1% PER YEAR

50


$-

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

UF FSU FAMU USF FAU UWF UCF FIU UNF FGCU NCF

Current Fee Total Statutory Cap of $29.48

How Close are Universities to How Close are Universities to 40% Fee Cap?40% Fee Cap?

51

Background Data on SUSBackground Data on SUS


52

SUS Fall Enrollment Since 1990SUS Fall Enrollment Since 1990


1990 1995 2000 2005 2006

FAMU 8,379 10,277 12,161 12,176 11,913

FAU 13,180 18,137 21,466 25,994 25,657

FGCU - - 3,653 7,254 8,316

FIU 22,528 28,216 31,458 37,424 38,537

FSU 28,824 30,301 34,485 39,668 40,378

NCF - - - 763 746

UCF 21,694 26,715 33,975 45,090 46,907

UF 36,338 39,703 45,900 50,298 51,314

UNF 8,093 10,492 12,762 15,420 16,091

USF 32,727 36,343 36,379 43,591 44,251

UWF 8,012 8,309 8,514 9,657 9,906

Total 179,775 208,493 240,753 287,335 294,016

53

SUS Degrees Since 1990-91SUS Degrees Since 1990-91


90-91

95-96

00-01

04-05

05-06

Bach26,40

332,21

035,72

443,30

445,01

5

Doctorate 760 1,058 1,221 1,518 1,618

First Prof 1,033 1,002 1,245 1,584 1,674

Masters 6,367 8,80710,76

613,36

512,90

8

Total34,564

43,077

48,956

59,771

61,215

54

Undergraduate Residency Since Undergraduate Residency Since 19901990


1990

1995

20002005

2006

Florida89.5

%91.6

%91.4

%94.0

%94.5

%

Non-Florida

10.5%

8.4% 8.6% 6.0% 5.5%

Total100

%100

%100

%100

%100

%

55

Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity Since 1990Since 1990


1990 1995 2000 2005 2006

Asian 2.7% 3.8% 4.3% 4.6% 4.7%

Black 9.8% 12.6% 14.4% 14.0% 13.9%

Hispanic 9.4% 12.6% 14.0% 16.2% 16.9%

Native Indian 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%

NonRes Alien 3.3% 3.5% 4.3% 4.3% 3.8%

White 74.1% 66.9% 61.5% 58.7% 58.6%

Not Reported 0.5% 0.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.8%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

56

What Are Some Leading What Are Some Leading Indicators?Indicators?


Trends in Leading Indicators of Performance

29.6% 29.8%31.7%

34.0% 33.4% 32.7% 32.9%36.2%

53.1% 53.9%55.7%

57.5% 57.1% 57.5%60.8% 62.1%

65.3%63.0%

19.0%

27.0%

31.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Bright Fut. Elig. ,% of HS GradsSAT-Takers, % of HS Grads8th Graders Proficient or Advanced--Math NAEP

57

Are We Becoming More Selective?Are We Becoming More Selective?


Fall FTIC Admissions and Yield %

73.6% 72.3% 73.5%75.5%

70.5% 69.5% 70.5% 69.2%67.1% 66.6% 66.0%

52.0% 52.6%54.0%

56.9% 56.8% 57.8% 58.7% 59.3% 60.5% 59.7% 60.4%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

75.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

% Admitted Yield

58

What is Our Market Share?What is Our Market Share?


Florida Resident Freshman (FTIC) Enrollment as Percentage of Recent HS Grads and 18-Year Old

Population

18.2% 19.1%20.6%

22.6%23.8%

25.3% 24.8% 24.8% 24.9% 24.9% 25.1%

11.1% 11.2%12.2%

13.2% 13.8% 14.7% 14.5%15.4% 15.6% 15.6% 15.7%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

HS Grads 18-Year Old Population

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Are Freshmen Better Prepared?Are Freshmen Better Prepared?


Fall Freshman Avg. GPA and SAT Scores 1995-2005

1100

1110

1120

1130

1140

1150

1160

1170

1180

1190

1200

SAT

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

GPA

SAT 1156 1128 1139 1140 1141 1141 1133 1133 1142 1141 1151

H.S. GPA 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.6

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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What is the Market Share of What is the Market Share of the Community Colleges for the Community Colleges for

Bachelor Ed?Bachelor Ed?

StudentsCredit Hours

Bachelor Degrees

St. Petersbu

rg 1,498 21,753 223

Miami Dade 226 3,777 0

Okaloosa-Walton 213 1,593 2

Chipola 12 549 1


1 Higher Education and Florida’s Economy in 2027 Mark Rosenberg, Chancellor, State University...

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