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Faith in Place

A Challenge to A Challenge to FaithFaith

The Energy Depletion The Energy Depletion RealityReality

Illinois Interfaith Power & Light

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Oil & Natural Gas Supply

When will they peak?

Where are reserves located?

How does it affect us?

What are our options?

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Consuming 125 Million Years of Oil

Bump in the line above represents

the 100 years when most of the world’s oil was consumed

Sources: Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth Deffeyes, Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 6. And US DOE Energy Information Agency http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html

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Consuming 125 Million Years of Oil

Extend the line 5 miles to the left for the time it took to create the oil

125 million years

At 2001 Global Consumption RateOil consumed each day took 4800 years to create

Sources: Hubbert’s Peak, The Impending World Oil Shortage, Kenneth Deffeyes, Princeton University Press, 2001, p. 6. And US DOE Energy Information Agency http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html

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Our Current Lifestyles

World Energy Usage

Critically dependent on oil & natural gas

Food ProductionHome HeatingTransportation

Source: International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics 2003 (1 Mtoe = 11,630 GWh)

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Early 1960s

Oil discoveries peaked

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

80

60

40

20

Bil

lion

s of

Oil

-Eq

uiv

alen

t B

arre

ls

0

Source: Harry Longwell, Exxon Mobile, “The future of the oil and gas industry: past approaches, new challenges,” World Energy 5(3), 2002

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The North Sea’s Oil Depletion

Zittel, W, 2001 "Analysis of the UK oil production". L-B-SystemTechnik www.energiekrise.de/e/articles/Analysis_of_UK_oil_production.pdf

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Oil Production Peaking Soon

Source: Bruce Robinson, Australia’s Oil Vulnerability, citing: ASPO Statistical Review of Oil and Gas, Proceedings of the 1st International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Uppsala, Sweeden, 23-25 May, 2002. Edited by K. Aleklett and C. Campbell, www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002, See Also Campbell & Laherrere, “The End of Cheap Oil,” Scientific American, March 1998, pp. 78-83.

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1979 – Per Capita Global Oil Production Peaked

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Pro

du

ctio

n P

er C

apit

a (B

/c/y

r)

6.0

3.0

0.0

(Years)

Peak 1979

Source: World Energy Production, Population Growth, And the Road to the Olduvai Gorge, Richard C. Duncan, As published in Population and Environment, May-June 2001, v. 22, n. 5; See also: Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological Society of America, Summit 2000 in Reno, Nevada on November 13, 2000

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Evolution: Oil Reserves by Region

Middle East Includes: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait Source: BP (British Petroleum) statistical review of world energy 2003 -http://www.bp.com/centres/energy/downloads/index.asp

1982 Proven Reserves 2002 Proven ReservesAfrica

9%Asia/Pacific 6%

N. America14%

S. & Cent. America 4%

MiddleEast54%

Europe &Eurasia 13%

Africa 7%

Asia/Pacific 4%

N. America

5%

S. & Cent. America 9%

MiddleEast66%

Europe &Eurasia 9%

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If all the people in the world …

Enjoyed a standard of living and energy consumption rates similar to that of the of average American, AND …

The world’s population continued to grow at a rate of 1.5% …

The world’s fossil fuel reserves

would last about 15 years

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How long can US oil consumption increase?

Data Source: US DOE Energy Information Agency (EIA) 2003 (Solid lines = estimates. World Production fit based on 2 trillion barrels ultimately recoverable. )

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1950 2000 2050 2100

(Year)

(Bill

ion

Bar

rel /

Yea

r)

US Consumption

US Production

2040 US Consuming entire World Output

World Production

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The problem we are facing is …

We must reduce our demand for nonrenewable

gas and oil

until it reaches

ZERO.

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The problem we are facing is …

• The economy of consumption is not the economy that any of our faiths proclaim

• The change that is required is on a scale that can only be described as religious

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How does it affect us?

Food

Shelter

Transportation

Consumer Goods

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Food

Soil erosion on cropland5 tons/year/acre in U.S.

12 tons/year/acre Worldwide.

3000 years to recover 6 inches of topsoilLand degradation alone expected to reduce food production 15% - 30% by 2020We are compensating by using oil and gasWhen oil and gas are gone - how to grow food?

We are using fossil fuel to compensate for worldwide soil loss and degradation

Source: David Pimentel et. Al., “Will limits of the Earth’s resources control human numbers?” Cornell University, 1999.

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U.S. Food Production Efficiency

Source: Energy Use in the US Food System, John Steinhart and Carol Steinhart, Science, 1974, pp. 307-316

Cal

ori

es o

f E

ner

gy

Inp

ut

for

1 C

alo

rie

of

Fo

od

Ou

tpu

t

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

20

10

5.0

2.0

1.0

0.5

0.2

0.1

0.05

0.02

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Shelter in the U.S.

Median size of a new home built in the U.S.

1949: 1,100 sq. ft. 1970: 1,385 sq. ft 1996: 1,950 sq. ft.

Household size in the U.S.

1970: 3.14 persons per household1995: 2.65 persons per household

Source: All Consuming Passion, Third Edition, 1998, New Road Map Foundation and Northwest Environment Watch.

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Transportation: 27% U.S. Energy

U.S. Consumption in 1997 by Sector

Transportation 25.04 quads

27%

Industrial 35.43 quads

38%

Residential & Commercial

33.74 quads

36%

TOTAL 94.21 quads

 

EIA Annual Energy Review 1998 (published January 2000)    

Source: http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/energy/stats_

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Consumer Goods: Wasting Energy

Product Wasting Rate(% discarded)

Quantity(million tons)

Disposable Diapers

100% 3.1

Disposable Tissues, Cups

100% 4.9

Clothing,Footwear

87% 5.0

Appliances 48% 2.1

Newsprint 45% 6.1

Source: EPA, “Characterization of Municipal Solid Waste in the U.S.: 1998 Update, as reported by the GrassRoots Recycling Network

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Our Options

0

20

40

60

80

1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075

(Year)

(Gb

oe

/ ye

ar)

Demand Growth Efficiency

Transport Mode Shifts

Price/Taxes

City Design

Lifestyle

Other Fuels

Deprivation

After: Swenson, R., 1998 "Alternative Futures for Humanity, the Swenson Curve" www.hubbertpeak.com/scenario.htm

(Gboe = Billion Barrel Oil Equivalent)

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Two Great Responsibilities

All Faiths share a sense of two great responsibilities

That we love one another

That we care for Creation

What does this tell us about our options in the world?

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Present Energy Plan

Ramp up coal & nuclear

To compensate for reduced availability of oil & natural gas

Continue to increase consumption

And …

Add small amounts of renewables to U.S. energy supply

Very slowlyIncludes wind, solar, biomass, & geothermal

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Problem 1. Pollution, Short-term Solutions

Massive increases in pollution and nuclear waste (5 -15 times present amts / year)

Very limited term solution … Domino Effect

Oil

NuclearCoal

Natur

al G

as 41 years

17 years

17 years14 years

Then What??

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Problem 2. Climate Change

grams CO2 per kW-hr

Coal: 890-975Wind: 5 – 22

1870 1930 1990 2050 2110 (Year

)

Glo

bal M

ean

Tem

pera

ture

An

om

aly

(

ºC

)

2.8

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.0

-0.4

Top solid line: measured temperaturesDashed lines: Natl Ctr for Atmospheric Research

model results Red x is 2002 average global temperature.

x

Sources: The Crowded Greenhouse, John Firor and Judeth Jacobsen, Yale University Press, 2002, World Nuclear Association, Energy Analysis of Power Systems, February 2003 http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf11.htm

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Alternative: Switch Once … to Renewables

OilRenewables

Wind, Solar, Biomass

Gas

Coal

En

erg

y

TimeUse the remaining oil and gas to help switch the infrastructure to renewables. A switch to renewables will be much more difficult if we

exhaust oil and gas first.

Phase it out

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Faith in Place Programs

Illinois Interfaith Power & Light

Food of Faith

Youth Stewardship Programming

Local Interfaith Sustainability Circles

Earth Stewardship Education

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Illinois Interfaith Power & Light

The Religious Community must lead the demand for development of renewable energy locally

Illinois Interfaith Power & Light does this through

Aggregating congregational demand for locally produced wind powerProviding guidance through workshops on energy conservation

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Food of Faith

We must consume food that is grown with minimal energy inputs

We must create new supply mechanisms and product lines for food that is locally- and sustainably produced, good to the earth and to people

Food of Faith is doing this with TAQWA Eco~Foods, Harvest of Hope Winter Farmers Markets, & other programs

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From the Ground Up

We must teach these values to our children

A need for youth programming for congregations

An urban agriculture programHelps young people understand natural systems and God’s careVermicomposting, beekeeping, & community gardening to a better world

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Contact

For more info on Faith in Place and its programs

Rev. Clare Butterfield, Director773-278-4800, ext. 125clare@faithinplace.org