1 FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016 Presented at the 30 th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast...
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Transcript of 1 FAA Aviation Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016 Presented at the 30 th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast...
1
FAA Aviation ForecastsFiscal Years 2005-2016
Presented at the 30th Annual FAA Aviation Forecast Conference By Robert L. BowlesManager, Statistics and Forecasts, FAAMarch 17, 2005
2
: : Domestic Passengers Up 6.7% in 2004
627.2
587.9574.5
641.2
626.8
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Enp
lane
men
ts (M
illio
ns)
2000 Passenger Level
Down 2.2 % from 2000
3
: : International Passengers Up 11.7% in 2004
134.0
120.0120.8
140.6128.8
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Enp
lane
men
ts (M
illio
ns) 2000 Passenger Level
Down 4.7 %from 2000
4
: : Domestic Yield Down 18.3% Since 2000
11.4611.73
11.88
14.0313.53
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
14.00
15.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Yie
ld (C
ents
/RPM
)
2000 Yield Level
5
: : Low Cost & Regional Carriers Increase Market Share
43%40%
37%
30%33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Dom
estic
Pas
seng
er M
arke
t Sha
re
Up 13 points From 2000
6
: : Air Cargo Revenue Ton Miles Up Almost 5% in 2004
35.133.5
27.830.1 28.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Bill
ions
of R
TM
s
2000 RTM Level
7
: : Commercial Air Carriers Have Lost $25 Billion Since 2000
($4.7)($5.4)
($10.9)
$3.6
($4.5)
-$12.0
-$9.0
-$6.0
-$3.0
$0.0
$3.0
$6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Net
Pro
fit/L
oss (
$B)
8
: : General Aviation Hours Flown Have Bottomed Out
27,25527,04927,040
29,958
27,017
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004(E)
Hou
rs F
low
n (0
00)
2000 Hours Flown Level
Down 9 % from 2000
9
: : FAA/Contract Tower Instrument Operations Up 2% in 2004
24.8 23.2 23.2 21.9 21.8
27.426.326.328.2 27.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Ope
ratio
ns (M
)
Commercial Non Commercial
2000 Instrument Operations Level
Down 7.2 %From 2000
10
: : Recovery In Activity Not Uniform Among All Airports
LAS
SLC DEN
SAN
MSPORDMDW
DTW
IAH
CVG
FLL
LGA
MEM ATL
CLT
DCA
PHL
In 2004 Commercial Operations at 17 of 35 Major U.S.Airports Already At 2000 Levels
11
: : U.S. Economy Grows An Average Of 3.2% Annually
$15,646
$11,916$11,528$10,738 $11,137
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2016
GD
P (B
illio
ns o
f 200
0$)
12
: : World Economy Grows An Average Of 3.2% Annually
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2016
GD
P (B
illio
ns o
f 200
0$)
North America Europe Latin America Asia
$34,821$37,142 $38,338
$50,825
$35,981
13
: : Energy Prices Spike in 2005 Then Fall Over Next 3 YearsAll Signs Point to Continued Recovery
139.4
118.1120.2127.9
141.6
103.3
116.8
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2016
Oil
& G
as I
ndex
(20
00=
100)
14
: : Domestic Real Yield Falls An Average Of 1.7% Annually
9.37
10.4710.6210.81
11.4612.00
12.45
15.38
14.38
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2016
Rev
enue
Per
RPM
(200
4 C
ents
)
39% Lower Than 2000 Level
15
: : Domestic Passengers Return to Pre 9/11 Levels in 2005
649.6
627.2
587.9574.5
641.2
626.8
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Enp
lane
men
ts (M
illio
ns)
Above 2000 Levels
16
: : International Passengers Return to Pre 9/11 Levels in 2005
145.4
134.0
120.0120.8
140.6
128.8
100
110
120
130
140
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Enp
lane
men
ts (M
illio
ns)
Above 2000 Levels
17
Latin America -- 2004 Pacific -- 2005 Canadian Transborder -- 2005 Atlantic -- 2006
: : Every World Travel Region Returns to 2000 Levels by 2006
18
: : Total Passengers Exceed One Billion In 2015
10491015982951921893
865837811786755718
642688
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Enp
lane
men
ts (M
illio
ns)
One Billion Served !
19
: : By 2016 Low Cost and Regional Carrier Domestic Share ≈ 55%
Passenger Market Share
LowCost &Regionals/Commuters
LowCost &Regionals/Commuters
Large NetworkCarriers
Large NetworkCarriers
20162004
43%≈ 55%
20
: : Regional Jet Fleet Grows 38% Over Next Three Years
1,1041,156 1,1301,1821,2161,461
1,704 1,581
570 782 1,035
2,2512,0691,857
1,6301,349
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Reg
iona
l/Com
mut
er A
ircr
aft
NonJet Jet
21
: : Low Cost Carriers Drive Mainline Carrier Fleet Growth
655 706 766 791 895 922
3,445 3,271 3,107 2,969 2,932 2,954 3,0673,006
1,028 1,130
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,0002,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mai
nlin
e C
arri
er F
leet
Legacy Low Cost
22
: : Cargo Revenue Ton Miles Increase 82% By 2016
22.917.316.715.5 16.1
19.6 20.922.2
40.9
23.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2004 2005 2006 2007 2016
Rev
enue
Ton
Mile
s (B
illio
ns)
Domestic International
23
: : General Aviation Hours Flown Up 20% By 2016
6,380 6,580 6,825 7,13010,350
20,875 21,320 21,505 21,62522,460
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2004(E) 2005 2006 2007 2016
Hou
rs F
low
n (0
00)
Turbine Piston
24
: : By 2016 Instrument Operations Up 29% At FAA/Contract Towers
24.8 23.2 23.2 21.9 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.2 22.4
25.5
37.831.230.529.628.327.426.326.328.2 27.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2016
Ope
rati
ons
(M)
Commercial Non Commercial
Back to 2000 Levels in 2008
25
: : Eight Additional Airports Exceed 2000 Levels by 2006
LAS
SLC DEN
SAN
MSPORDMDW
DTW
IAH
CVG
FLL
LGA
MEM ATL
CLT
DCA
PHL
HNL
IAD
BWI
MCOTPA
JFK
PHX
EWR
Commercial Operations at 25 Large U.S.Airports Will Exceed 2000 Levels By 2006
26
: : Implications For The FAA
Congestion On Rise As Demand ReturnsSeveral Airports Already Experiencing Delays
Change in Aircraft Mix Makes Future Workload More ComplexRapid Growth in RJsStrong Growth in GA Business Jets
Falling Yields Pose Risk To Matching FAA Funding Needs With Demand For FAA Services
27
: : Forecast Risks
Deteriorating Financial Condition Of Legacy Carriers
Sustained Higher Fuel Prices
Increasing Delays At U.S. Airports
28
: : Forecast Summary
Recovery of Traffic Continues In 2005 And Beyond Commercial Carrier and Domestic Passengers Return To Pre 9/11
Levels Commercial Carrier Passengers Exceed One Billion in 2015
Low Cost Carriers Increase Share => Falling Fares
Rising Demand For FAA Services
Downside Risks Are Significant