1 Educational Service District 113 Survey Research & Election Results October 23 th, 2013 J ON G...

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Educational Service District 113

Survey Research & Election ResultsOctober 23th, 2013

JON GORESMANAGING DIRECTOR(206) 389-4043 [email protected]

Today’s presentation will focus on

ELECTION RESULTS

SURVEY RESEARCH

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Source: Washington Secretary of State: Election and Voting website and individual County Auditor websites.

Washington State Election ResultsSchool Districts Only

M&O Levies: 45 passed and 2 failed

Capital Projects Levies: 15 passed and 2 failed

Transportation Levies: N/A

Bond Authorizations: 5 passed and 28 failed

2011 Election Results 2012 Election Results M&O Levies: 166 passed and 6 failed


Transportation Levies: N/A


M&O Levies: 43 passed and 1 failed


Transportation Levies: 1 passed and 0 failed


2013 Election Results(Through April 2013)

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Voting Patterns

38%41%

24%

28%

38%

53%

34%

45% 46%

37%

45%

38%

44% 45%

40%

23%

45%47%

15%

61%

43%

199373

199499

199562

199678

199778

199855

199959

200040

200139

200243

200353

200434

200534

200660

200750

200835

200931

201019

201133

201218

201328

Bond Issues Passed by Year (Years 1993 through April 2013, inclusive)Schools Only

Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.

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Voting Patterns

80.9% 83.7% 86.9% 85.9% 83.8%

70.6%

87.2%94.1%

97.4% 97.8% 98.0%93.9% 96.5% 97.6%

89.6%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average

M&O Levies - StatewideYearly Passage Rates

As of April 2013

Source: State of Washington, Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction.

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Voting Patterns

51% 52%

38% 37%33%

27% 28%

February333

March149

April79

May279

August3

September109

November138

Bond Issues Passed by Month (Years 1992 through April 2013, inclusive) Schools Only


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Voting Patterns

68%

36%

43%

17%

47%

26%

38%

45%

13%

92%

Fire210

General159

Hospital47

Jail18

Library45

Park109

Police13

School1,106

Street23

W&S13

All Bond Issues Passed by Purpose Years 1992 through April 2013, inclusive)Washington State


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2014ELECTION DATE

RESOLUTIONFILING DEADLINE (2)

APPROXIMATE DATEBALLOTS ARE MAILED (3)

February 11, 2014 December 27, 2013 January 24, 2014

April 22, 2014 March 7, 2014 April 4, 2014

August 5, 2014 (Primary) May 9, 2014 July 18, 2014

November 4, 2014 (General) August 5, 2014 October 17, 2014

The 2014 special election dates and ballot resolution filing deadlines pursuant to the Revised Code of Washington (“RCW”) are listed below for your information.(1) These are

the dates permitted under current law, which are subject to change by the Legislature.

(1) This data is for informational purposes only and does not take the place of local, state or federal laws. Specific RCW information can be found at: http://www.secstate.wa.gov/elections/election_laws.aspx.

(2) Some dates may have been adjusted to reflect the business day prior to actual resolution filing date, according to RCW 29A.04.330, if falling on a weekend.

(3) Applies to both mail and absentee ballots. Absentee ballots are required to be mailed no later than 18 days prior to the election date. RCW 29A.40.070

Source: Washington Secretary of State’s Office, Elections and Voting website.

2014 Special Election and Resolution Filing Dates

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Survey Results – Statewide Survey

31%

37%

32%

More Likely

Equally Likely

Less Likely

September 2011

7%

27%

47%

19%

Don't Know/NotApplicable

Less Likely

Equally Likely

More LikelyJuly 2013

Renewal of M&O Levy• Would you say that you are now more likely, equally likely, or less likely to

approve renewal of the local levy that supports daily operations of your local schools, as compared with two to four years ago?

Source: 2011 Economic Research Center, Washington State University 2013 Elway Poll, D.A. Davidson & Co.

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Statewide Survey Results – July 2013

Renew Levy Total

Age Area

18-35 36-50 51-64 65+ Seattle King P/K N. Sound West East

More Likely 19% 20% 13% 20% 24% 19% 21% 19% 23% 10% 24%

Equally Likely 47% 59% 56% 46% 35% 56% 54% 39% 48% 49% 38%

Less Likely 27% 22% 23% 29% 30% 19% 17% 37% 25% 34% 31%

Don’t Know/Not Applicable 7% 0% 9% 5% 10% 7% 9% 6% 5% 7% 7%

Renewal of M&O Levy• Would you say that you are now more

likely, equally likely, or less likely to approve renewal of the local levy that supports daily operations of your local schools, as compared with two to four years ago?

Source: The Elway Poll, D.A. Davidson, July 2013

7%

27%

47%

19%

Don't Know/NotApplicable

Less Likely

Equally Likely

More LikelyJuly 2013

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Survey Results – Statewide SurveyRenewal of M&O Levy

Here are two questions about whether you would vote for or against, or be undecided about a school levy in your district if you knew two additional facts. • The first one is, the number of students per class would increase if the levy is

not approved. Would you vote:


52%

24%

24%

For

Against

Undecided

September 2011

49%

32%

20%

For

Against

Undecided

July 2013

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Class Size Total

Age Area


For 47% 61% 52% 48% 43% 54% 50% 43% 58% 47% 43%

Against 32% 27% 32% 35% 29% 28% 31% 35% 32% 38% 26%

Undecided 20% 12% 16% 18% 29% 19% 19% 22% 9% 15% 31%

Renewal of M&O Levy• The first one is, the number of

students per class would increase if the levy is not approved. Would you vote for or against, or be undecided?


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Survey Results – Statewide SurveyRenewal of M&O Levy

• The second one is, the levy pays for one-fifth of the daily operating cost of the school. In this case would you vote for the levy, be undecided or vote against the levy?

50%

16%

34%

For

Against

Undecided

September 2011


53%

23%

24%

For

Against

Undecided

July 2013

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Survey Results – July 2013

53%

23%

34%

For

Against

Undecided

July 2013

Operating Total

Age Area


For 53% 59% 51% 59% 43% 57% 60% 41% 60% 50% 47%

Against 23% 22% 26% 22% 25% 20% 19% 30% 23% 32% 18%

Undecided 24% 20% 24% 19% 32% 22% 21% 30% 17% 18% 34%

Renewal of M&O Levy• The second one is, the levy pays for

one-fifth of the daily operating cost of the school. In this case would you vote for the levy, be undecided or vote against the levy?


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Statewide Survey Results – July 2013Last year, the state supreme court ruled that the legislature was not putting enough money into public education. In response, the legislature added just under $1 billion dollars to the state education budget.

• Given this additional money, if your local school district were to put a maintenance and operations levy on the ballot in the next year, which of these statements best describes you:


3%

6%

22%

27%

42%

Don't Know/Not Applicable

Depends

I will be more likely to oppose the next levy in my district

I will think twice about supporting the next levy in my district

I will be just as likely as ever to support the next levy in my district

July 2013

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Statewide Survey Results – July 2013Last year, the state supreme court ruled that the legislature was not putting enough money into public education. In response, the legislature added just under $1 billion dollars to the state education budget.

• Given this additional money, if your local school district were to put a maintenance and operations levy on the ballot in the next year, which of these statements best describes you:

Renew Levy Total

Age Area


As Likely 42% 45% 45% 47% 30% 46% 47% 26% 43% 34% 49%

Think Twice 27% 29% 32% 21% 30% 31% 23% 28% 28% 26% 28%

Oppose 22% 14% 14% 27% 27% 11% 19% 37% 20% 32% 16%

Depends 6% 8% 5% 5% 8% 7% 5% 7% 8% 6% 3%

Don’t Know/Not Applicable 3% 4% 3% 1% 5% 4% 5% 2% 2% 1% 3%Source: The Elway Poll, D.A. Davidson, July 2013

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There is a proposal before the legislature to provide funding to every school district to have full-day every day kindergarten. If they have full-day every day kindergarten, many school districts will have to add classrooms to meet this requirement.

If there were a measure on the ballot in your community to increase property taxes in order to add classrooms for a full-day every day kindergarten, which of the following would you..

2012 Statewide Totals

West%

East%

Definitely Support 17 14

Probably Support it 26 26

Probably Oppose 21 21

Definitely Oppose 32 36

Don't Know/NA 4 9

Definitely/Probably Support: King Co. No. Sound West Eastern

Age18-35

Age36-50

Age 51-64

Age65+

43% 42% 48% 36% 40% 63% 51% 37% 37%

Source: The Elway Poll, D.A. Davidson, September 2012.


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Statewide Survey Results – July 2013 Electronic Books

In your opinion should electronic books - such as Kindles, Nooks and iPads - be available for students in your district?

Yes:King Co.

No. Sound West Eastern Dems Rep

Perfect Voters

Age18-35

Age36-50

Age51-64

63% 59% 58% 66% 61% 71% 56% 60% 68% 61% 68%

63%

25%

12%

Yes

No

Don't Know/NA

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Grades Students are often given

the grades A, B, C, D and Fail to denote the quality of their work. Suppose the public schools themselves in your community were graded in the same way. What grade would you give the public schools here –

A, B, C, D, or Fail?

National Totals

2012%

2007%

2002%

1997%

1992%

A&B 48 45 47 46 40

A 12 9 10 10 9

B 36 36 37 36 31

C 31 34 34 32 33

D 13 14 10 11 12

Fail 4 5 3 6 5

Don’t know/refused 4 2 6 5 10

Source: August 2012 PDK/Gallup Poll: “What Americans said about the public schools”

Survey Results – National Survey 2012

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Overall Grade Overall, what grade

would you give your local school district. We will use a letter grade, like they use in school where:

[A] is Excellent [B] is Good [C] is Satisfactory [D] is Unsatisfactory [F] is Failing Source: The Elway Poll, D.A. Davidson, September 2012.

2012 Statewide Totals

West%

East%

A 15 18

B 32 39

C 26 17

D 13 8

F 6 5

Don’t know/refused 8 14

A/B Grades: All King Co.No.

Sound West Eastern Dems RepPerfect Voters 65+

47% 48% 57% 47% 57% 58% 54% 54% 50%

Survey Results – National Survey 2012

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Survey Results – Statewide Survey 2012

12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%6%

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If other than [A]: What is the one thing your school district could do to improve its grade?

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Taxes If there were a

proposal to increase taxes to make more computer technology available to students in your district, would you…

Source: The Elway Poll, D.A. Davidson, September 2012.

2012 Statewide TotalsWest

%East

%

Definitely Support that proposal 34 35

Probably Support it 15 26

Probably Oppose it 20 17

Definitely Oppose that proposal 29 13

Don't Know/NA 2 9

Definitely/Probably Support:

King Co.

No. Sound West Eastern Dems Rep

Perfect Voters

Age18-35

Age36-50

Age65+

49% 56% 59% 49% 61% 71% 40% 59% 74% 56% 54%

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Voter Outlook Index Items: Two-Year Trend

In next year, will things get better or worse..

In the United States

In Washington State

1922

Voter Outlook Index Items: Two-Year Trend

In next year, will things get better or worse..

In your Community

For You and Your Family

2023

Mr. Gores joined D.A. Davidson & Co. in 2006 as a Senior Vice President in the Fixed Income Capital Markets division. Previously, he was with Seattle Northwest Securities for 18 years as Vice President of Public Finance, where he served as Manager of the School Finance Group for Washington State schools. Since 1985, Jon’s focus of practice has been school district public finance. He has been instrumental in developing financing solutions for specific school district funding needs. His advocacy on behalf of school districts with the State legislature contributed to the repeal of the law that caused the tax rate spike that districts encountered with a mid-year bond sale, and led to the expanded use of limited general obligation (LGO) debt. His efforts resulted in H.B. 1832, which allows school districts to use LGO debt for remodeling of and additions to existing facilities. Most recently Mr. Gores was instrumental in the passage of legislation that allows a direct transfer of state forest revenue from the debt service fund to the capital projects fund.

Jon is a member of WASA, WSSDA, WASBO, and is a featured speaker at numerous conferences. He serves as a trustee of the Washington State School Boards Educational Foundation. He has been a guest lecturer at the University of Washington, WSU, Seattle Pacific University and Seattle University. Mr. Gores served on the School Bond Guarantee Program advisory committee and was appointed to the Finance Committee for the Simple Majority. Jon is a recipient of the Advocate for Education Award by WSU.

Bio – Jon Gores24

Neither this material nor any of its contents may be disclosed, sold, or redistributed, electronically or otherwise, without prior written consent of Davidson Companies. The information presented herein is based on public information we believe to be reliable, prevailing market conditions, as well as our views at this point in time. We make no representation or warranty with respect to the accuracy or completeness of this material. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Davidson Companies does not assume any liability for any loss which may result from the reliance by any person upon such material. We make no representations regarding the legal, tax, regulatory, or accounting implications of entering into a Transaction.

Required Disclosure Pursuant to MSRB Rule G-23: An underwriter’s primary role will be to purchase as principal, or arrange for the placement of the securities in a commercial arm’s length transaction with the issuer, and may have financial and other interests that differ from those of the issuer. In its capacity as underwriter and not as financial advisor, an underwriter may provide incidental financial advisory services at the issuer’s request, including advice regarding the structure, timing, terms and other similar matters concerning the issuance. However, an underwriter does not assume any financial advisory or fiduciary responsibilities with respect to the issuer.

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