11Presented at the Conference on Climate Change organized by the Kalikasan-People’s Network for the Environment on April 20-21, 2009 at the Blai Kalinaw.

22Klima/Manila Observatory

Climate ChangeClimate Changeandand

Its Impacts on AgricultureIts Impacts on Agriculture11

by:

Lourdes V. TibigLourdes V. Tibig22

Climate change science

- IPCC AR4

- Fingerprints: Philippine Scene

Impacts

- Current climate variability

- El Niño/La Niña events

- Tropical cyclone passage/occurences

- Climate risks

OutlineOutline

Ghg concentrations are increasing rapidly and are now much higher than they have been for at least 420,000 years

We live in unusual times!We live in unusual times!

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

We are committed to a warming of 0.2°C/decade

Widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal

Variations of Earth’s surface temperature for the past 140 years

1900 2000 2100

PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Warming in the last 50 years is UNUSUAL in the last 1300 years

How have the earth’s surface temperature changed?

• 11 of the last twelve years: warmest years since 1850

• More frequent hot days, hot nights, and heat waves but less frequent cold days, cold nights and frost over the last 50 years

• More intense and longer droughts since the 1970s

• More frequent, persistent and intense El Niño since the mid-1970s

Signals of climate change….

• We have pumped enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to warm the planet for many decades to come,

• The Earth’s natural system will be affected for decades even if ghg emissions are reduced NOW.

Is climate change inevitable?Is climate change inevitable?

• There are projected increases of from 1.1°C to 6.4°C during the 21st century.

• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected.

Are there projections for further warming?Are there projections for further warming?

What is happening in the Philippines?What is happening in the Philippines?

An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006

Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

y = 0.0109x - 0.2423

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06

Year

Tem

per

atu

re A

no

mal

y (°

C)

Anomaly

5 year running mean

Linear (5 year running mean)

An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006

Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

0.947774998

y = 0.0062x - 0.1747

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6

Year

Tem

per

atu

re A

no

mal

y (°

C)

Anomaly

5 year running mean

Linear (5 year running mean)

An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures

Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)

y = 0.0159x - 0.3266

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6

Year

Tem

per

atu

re A

no

mal

y (°

C)

Anomaly

5 year running mean

Linear (5 year running mean)

Tracks of tropical cyclones that entered the PAR during the period 1948-2005 1128 tropical cyclones

Annual frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines (1948-2006)

Total = 1148, Mean = 19 to 20 , Std. Dev. = 4, Max = 32 , Min = 11Total = 1148, Mean = 19 to 20 , Std. Dev. = 4, Max = 32 , Min = 11528 T.C. or 46% crossed /land fall in the Country528 T.C. or 46% crossed /land fall in the CountryAverage crossing = 9 T.C.Average crossing = 9 T.C.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Not Crossing the Philippines

Land falling/Crossing the Philippines

Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)

Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)

Anomaly of Annual Philippine Rainfall With Normal Base Period 1961- 1990

-150-125-100-75-50-25

0255075

100125150

Annual5 years mean

Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated with the passage of Tropical Cyclones

(1951-2005)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

NAIA 429PortArea 425

Science Garden 430Sangley Point 428

Vigan 222Tuguegaro 233Baguio City 328

Dagupan 325Iba, Zambales 324Cubi Pt,Subic 426

Ambulong 432Calapan 431

Puerto Princesa 618Cuyo 630

Coron 526

Itbayat 132Basco Synop 135

Calayan 133Aparri 232

Cabanatuan 330Casiguran 336

Alabat 435Infanta 434

Romblon 536

Masbate 543Daet 440

Legaspi 444Virac Synop 446Virac Radar 447Roxas City 538

Iloilo 637

Catarman 546Catbalogan 548

Tacloban City 550Dumaguete 642

Mactan 646Maasin 648

Surigao City 653Hinatuan 755

Dipolog 741Lumbia 747

Cagayan De Oro 748Malaybalay 751

Davao 753Zamboanga 836

Station Names

% of Rainfall

% Annual RR due to TC % Annual RR due other Wx Systems

FREQUENCY OF FLOODS IN CITIES AND MUNICIPALITIES

THE STUDY ON THE NATIONWIDE FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT AND THE FLOOD MITIGATION PLAN FOR THE SELECTED AREAS IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES: : JICA, 2004

D O S T

-

P A G A S A

Trends of extreme events

Results:• Majority of stations show an increase in hot days and warm nights

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall

HOT DAYS

WARM NIGHTS

Results:

• There are few significant decreases in hot days at coastal stations (Aparri, Virac, Puerto Princesa), but this same behavior is also seen in coastal stations of northern and western Australia (Griffiths, et.al, 2005)

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall

Results: • Decreases in cold nights and cool days are significant and almost all throughout the country. Again, this is spatially coherent across the broad Asia-Pacific region ( Manton, et. al., 2001, Griffiths, et.al., 2005

Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall

COOL DAYS

COLD NIGHTS

RAIN DAYS

TOTAL RAINFALL

Rainfall Indices• Most results are not significant. Generally, increases in total

rainfall and number of raindays, again in the Visayas.

• Increases in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events especially in the Visayas

Rainfall Indices

INTENSITY FREQUENCY

ImpactsImpacts

Not adequately known:• On pest infestations• On ability of livestock to adapt to physiological stresses • on aggregated market sector effects (changes in GDP)

Impacts of changes in climate extremes:

Yield losses can be severe if temp > critical limits for even shorter periods;

Known impacts:

Temperature increases beyond a threshold can affect key development stages of some crops;

• Spikelet sterility in rice• Loss of pollen viability in maize• Tubers’ development in potatoes

Increased flood, landslide, mudslide events (and damages);

Some ecosystems show effects quickly (ex. Coral bleaching can occur in a single exceptionally warm season); and

Changes in the frequency of extreme events may disrupt some ecosystems as a result of differences in response times of species.

• Risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics• Coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure• damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves

Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, and mean and peak precipitation intensities

• flood, landslide and avalanche damage• Soil erosion• flood runoff could increase recharge of some flood plain aquifers• Pressure on government and private flood insurance systems and

disaster relief

More intense precipitation events

• cold-related human morbidity and mortality• risk of damage to a number of crops• range and activity of some pests and disease vectors• heating energy demand

Higher minimum temperatures, and fewer cold days, frost days, and cold waves over nearly all land areas

• incidence of deaths and serious illness in older people and urban poor• Heat stress in livestock and wildlife• risk of damage to a number of crops• electric cooling demand• energy supply reliability

Higher maximum temperatures, more hot days and heat waves over nearly all land areas

Projected impactsProjected changes

Examples of climate variability and extreme climate events and their impacts:

Documentation (done in 2000) of impacts of

extreme climate events (ECEs) showed a very

clear link between ECEs and adverse impacts

on agriculture, water and coastal resources,

health and environment, including disaster

management

How vulnerable are we?How vulnerable are we?

Preliminary vulnerability and adaptation (V & A)

assessments in 5 most important sectors

(agriculture, water and coastal resources,

human health and forestry already indicated

high vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate

change

Lower capacity to adapt due to lack of financial,

institutional and technological resources

How vulnerable are we?How vulnerable are we?

Major natural disasters around the world, 1963-1992

Let’s take a look at natural disastersLet’s take a look at natural disasters

Major natural disasters in the Philippines

Some statistics on most disastrous tropical cyclones

P 0.8 B3. Kadiang 1993

P 10.8 B2. Rosing 1995

P 10.8 B1. Ruping 1990

DamagesDamagesTropical CycloneTropical Cyclone

On agriculture and food supply Too much or too little rains?

One tonne of imported rice ~ 1000 tonnes of H2O

high temperatures

spikelet fertility

pest and diseases Most fundamental of human need (food) is at great risk

Potential health impacts of climate and its change

What would climate change mean in the long term? Freshwater availability in Southeast Asia

to decrease along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect millions by 2050;

Coastal areas especially heavily-populated megadeltas will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea, and in some flooding from the rivers;

Risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries (decrease in crop yields);

Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrheal disease (primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise due to projected changes in water cycles;

Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance/toxicity of cholera; and

Climate change is expected to impinge on the sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds pressures on natural resources and the environment.

Tipping point?Tipping point?

To prevent a global temperature rise above 2oC, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has to be stabilised in the range 450 or 550 ppm

Current CO2 concentration is 380 ppm and has risen by around 100 ppm since the 1800s.

““Only the minimum emissions Only the minimum emissions scenarios - a deep green future-can scenarios - a deep green future-can

prevent global temperatures from prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2rising more than 2ooC relative to C relative to

before the start of our coal before the start of our coal and oil age.”and oil age.”

Tyndall Technical Report, 2006

E-mail address: lvtibig@yahoo.com