012_20160726_Sustainable energy production and utilization

ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015

Sustainable Energy Production and UtilizationIntroduction, Food for Thought & Effect of Energy Conversion on the Environment

Reinhard RadermacherCEEE, University of Maryland

Fall 2016

1


Overview1. Speed of Technological Development2. Thoughts on Implications3. Consequences for Fossil Fuels4. System Thinking

2


1902, Life in the US Just a Century Ago• The US average life expectancy was 47• Only 14 Percent of homes in the US had a bathtub• Only 8% of the homes had a telephone. $11 for 3 min call Denver to NYC• Max speed limit in most cities was 10 mph• AL, MS, IA, and TN each had more people than CA with only 1.4 mil• Marijuana, heroin, and morphine all available over the counter at drugstores • Coca Cola contained cocaine

• World’s tallest structure: Eiffel Tower• Average wage in the US 0.22$/hr• Average US worker earned $200 to $400 per year• Accountant - $2000 /yr, Dentist -$2,500 /yr, Mechanical Engr -$5,000/yr• 6% of Americans HS grads• Only about 230 reported murders in the entire US• 5 top causes of death in US:

Pneumonia and influenza, Tuberculosis, Diarrhea, Heart disease, Stroke

Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 20063

Fax MachineWalkmaniPodDesktop PC….. Have all come and gone in my lifetime!


The World is Changing

4

Diamandis, Peter H.; Kotler, Steven (2012-02-21). Abundance: The Future Is Better Than You Think (Kindle Locations 4226-4228). Free Press. Kindle Edition

Smartphone displaces $900K worth of equipment


Why is Technological Growth Exponential?• All evolutionary change is exponential because the change builds on itself

– Population change is exponential – the more people born, the more exist to produce ever more offspring• Technology represents tools to create further tools that can produce ever more complex and capable technology

– Integrated circuits in computers are used to design the next generation of integrated circuits– Information technology provides faster and greater access to knowledge which is used to rapidly design and produce other technologies



Why Do We Perceive Change as Linear?• It is only recently that change during an individuals lifetime has become visible (Future Shock, 1971)• Doubling periods can be longer than a human life span

– Biological complexity doubles on the order of thousands or even millions of years– Prior to the Industrial Revolution, change was almost nonexistent over a human life span

• Technological progress during the last Century doubled about every decade (Kurzweil)– People tend to naturally average the change over a reasonable period and, therefore, see it as linear but not increasing

• Information technology doubles every 18 months or so.– The 1990’s seemed a decade of great change!



Exponential Growth in a Finite Environment• Imagine bacteria growing steadily in a bottle• They double every minute• At 11:00 there is one bacterium in the bottle• At 12:00 noon the bottle is full


7


Question 1At what time is the bottle half full?

Answer: 11:59


8


Question 2If you were an average bacterium in the bottle, at what time would you first realize that you were running out of space?


9


Time Full Empty 11:54 1/64 or 1.6% 63/6411:55 2/64 or 3.1% 62/6411:56 4/64 or 6.3% 60/6411:57 8/64 or 12.5% 56/6411:58 16/64 or 25% 48/6411:59 32/64 or 50% 32/6412:00 64/64 or 100% 0

Questions



Suppose…Suppose that at 11:58 some of the bacteria realized they are running out of space. So they launch a great search for new bottles. They search off-shore, on the outer continental shelf, in the “Overthrust Belt” and in the Arctic and they found THREE new bottles.Darrel Massie, UMD Presentation 2006

11


Question 3

• Two minutes!

How long can the growth continue as a result of the discovery of three new bottles; this quadrupling of proven resources?


12


Internet as Example

13

• First two computers connected in 1969• The number of hosts has doubled approximately every 13 months since 1969

– 1970 - 4 1974 -20– 1980 –735 1984 -8,000– 1988 –90,000 1992 -1 mil– 1994 –3.3 mil 1996 -11 mil– 1998 –36 mil 2000 -120 mil

• Exponential Change closely models the actual growth in the internetDarrel Massie, UMD Presentation 2006


Linear Scale Plot of Internet Growth

1994-98 Explosion

69 94 99

Number

of Hos

ts

Year10 mil

50 mil

100 mil



Remember:• Humans think in terms of linear change.• Humans can handle only a few variables at a time.• The World is much more complex than that!

15


Analysis1. Modest rates of steady growth of numbers of things quickly give enormous numbers.2. Steady growth is displayed in compound interest of money in a savings account.3. The rate of growth of technology, population and inflation will fluctuate but still lead to enormous numbers in a moderate period of time. 4. Steady growth of the rate of consumption of a non-renewable resource leads very quickly to the early depletion of that resource. (unless price intervenes)5. Most people have little or no idea about the effects of steady growth.

16


Implications• What does all this mean for Sustainable Energy?• Technological Evolution cannot be stopped and will only accelerate –Changing this is not an option• The Complexity of Technology, Knowledge, and Society is also increasing and must be managed• All Problems and solutions, including technical solutions, are Multi-Disciplinary (social, political, economic & technical)• The ‘Process for Change’ is as important as the product• Individual and Organizational Learning to produce the right change is the key to the Future!• Einstein: A problem cannot be solved using the same mode of thinking that produced it.• Einstein: Doing the same thing twice and expecting a different outcome is insanity.

17


CURRENT ENERGY SUPPLY & UTILIZATION18


US Energy Flow Diagram

Petroleum

Coal

Nat. Gas

Bio Mass

Nuclear WasteHydro

Solar

WindGeothermal


China and India

20 Int. Joint Graduate Course on Sustainable Energy, Radermacher, Hamburg 2014


U.S. Energy Use in Relation to GDP 1970-2012


Role of Efficiency in Addressing Climate Change in the U.S.

Note: This graph is stylized and is not exact.


History of Building Code Revisions in the United States


IS THERE AN OIL-PEAK?

24


Three Types of Growth

We are hereWhen will we be here?Are we here?



Countries that Peaked in Oil Production…Japan: 1932Germany: 1966Libya: 1970Venezuela: 1970USA: 1970Iran: 1974Nigeria: 1979Trinidad & Tobago: 1981Egypt: 1987France: 1988Indonesia: 1991Syria: 1996

26

India: 1997New Zealand: 1997 UK: 1999Argentina: 1999Colombia: 1999Australia: 2000 Norway: 2000Oman: 2000Mexico: 2004Russia: 1987, 2007Kuwait: 2013Saudi Arabia: 2014Iraq: 2018


World Shale Gas and Shale Oil Resources

Source: Kuuskraa et al., WORLD SHALE GAS AND SHALE OIL RESOURCE ASSESSMENT, prepared for US. EIA, May 2013

Note:7000 trillion cft is equivalent to ~1200 billion of barrels of oil

27


US Tar Sand Resources• U.S. tar sands resources are estimated at 60 to 80 billion barrels of oil; some 11 billion barrels may be recoverable• The richest deposits are found in Utah and California.

DOE Office of Petroleum Reserves –Strategic Unconventional Fuels Fact Sheet: U. S. Tar Sands Potential

28


World Oil Production

29

Shale O

il World

wide

Shale G

as World

wide


Why?• Oil major “easy” oil fields are declining 6-7%/year• New “easy” finds, announced with great fanfare, amount to little.• Consumption in oil-producing countries is increasing rapidly.

– Population increases rapidly– Energy is highly subsidized– Helps keep dictators in power

• China & India are coming online.30


How cheap is energy?

31

Norwegian SalmonCaught & frozen

Shipped (4 weeks)Thawed, processed, frozen

Shipped (4 weeks) Sold as FRESH !


Before…

32

Massey Valley Fill Lyburn, WVPhoto courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org


…after Mountaintop Removal

33

Massey Valley Fill Lyburn, WVPhoto courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org


Environmental Impact

34Photo courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org



35

Mountaintop Removal in Martin County, Kentucky Photo courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org



36

Massey Valley Fill Lyburn, WV Photo courtesy Vivian Stockman / www.ohvec.org.Flyover courtesy SouthWings.org


Tar Sands and Oil Shale

37

Before and After: Forest in northern Alberta staked out by tar sands prospectors and the Suncor Millennium tar sands site, Alberta in the March 2009 issue of National Geographic


Tar Sands and Oil Shale

38

Boreal forest turned into open-pit mines for oil extraction in Alberta's tar sands – part of a process known as “Fracking”


Deepwater/Gulf Oil Spill

39

Oil slick near Louisiana wetlands


Fracking• Injection of high pressure fluids into rock setting free large quantities of natural gas/oil• Currently US is on way to become net oil/gas exporter• But:

– Fluids used to drill for natural gas likely pollute ground water– New Jersey has one year moratorium

• Some States are pushing to ban technology

40http://kahfan.blogspot.com/p/what-would-fracking-mean-for-karoo.html


Cost of Oil Dependence

41

ORNL/TM-2005/45Costs of U.S. Oil Dependence:2005 Update, January 2005David L. Greene, Corporate FellowSanjana Ahmad, Research Associate


Fossil Energy Utilization Challenges1. Supply Limitations2. Environmental Impact3. Political Reason “Petro Dictatorship”4. Economic Reason: Spend funds locally

42


Motivation for Sustainable Energy Utilization

43

1. Limited Fossil Resources2. Environmental Impact3. Political/Economic Losses


Food for Thought

44

System Thinking


Nature vs. Industrial Age

46

Kodak engineers do sustainable development workshop, living outdoors for several days.Walk home past a landfill.Find old copiers.Lesson learned: Copier is used a few years in an office, …..but lives ~ 100 years in a landfill.


Nature vs. Industrial Age

47

Industrial Age vs. Nature

EnergyFossil

(few billion years of stored solar energy) SolarFood SuppliesGlobal Local

Materials ProcessingHuge Waste No wasteVarietyStandardization Diversity

Social Well BeingMaximize Income Build Relationships

Peter Senge, The Necessary Revolution, 2008


Fisheries Game Example• Several fishing companies fish the same Ocean• If one outdoes the others in fish catches, they all over fish and the will be bankrupted.• What needs to be done for them to survive and thrive?

48


HOWEVER: THE STONE-AGE DID NOT END BECAUSE OF A LACK OF STONES!49


What Should the Future Hold?CEEE Research Roadmap: Macro View

Mid-Term Energy SupplyElectric Power from highly efficient, fossil fuel power plants:Transcritical Steam CycleCombined Cycle

Heating and Cooling1. District Heating and Cooling2. Low temperature lift vapor compression HPsRefrigeration, HPs for Severe ConditionsVapor compression HPsLong-Term Energy SupplyElectric Power from Renewable Energy

Short/Long Term Heat SupplyFossil and Bio Fuels

Heating and CoolingLow temperature lift (waste) heat activated HPsRefrigeration, HPs for Severe Conditions(Waste) heat activated HPsDistrib. CHP

50


THE POTENTIAL

51


Energy Productivity DifferencesHow well do we spend our $1.2 Trillion?

*IEA and World Bank – 2007 sources

Key to Competitiveness

Region Population GDP Energy Energy/Capita

Energy/GDP

USA 4.6% 18.9% 19.5% 100 100EU 7.5% 25.1% 14.8% 47 57

Japan 1.9% 8.8% 4.3% 52 47China 20.0% 4.5% 16.3% 19 355India 17.0% 1.5% 4.9% 7 317World 100% 100% 100% 23 97

52


Climate Indicators• CO2 per capita per year (metric tons)

– Canada 22.6– USA 21.7– Denmark 14.1– Germany 11.7– European Union 10.5

• Municipal CO2 per capita per year– Washington DC 19.7– Loudoun County, Virginia 14.2 with 6.0 goal– Canada – Guelph 12.2 with 5.0 goal– Germany - Mannheim 5.0– Denmark - Copenhagen 2.6

*Rough indicators - multiple sources

Target for US Cities?53


Energy Use by SectorHow does the USA Compare?Sector Share Index USA/EU*

Buildings 40% 1.8 ~ 2.5 : 1Transportation 29% 1.4 : 1Industry 32% 1.2 : 1

• Most energy lost in range of inefficiencies• Only 5% to 15% used productively

High potential for productivity gains!

*Indicative ratio of US average to EU Average54


Existing Low Energy, Net Zero Energy, Plus Energy Houses

55

With contributions from: Kris Van de Velde


Bullit Center Seattle

Bullit Foundation HQ www.bullitcenter.org56


FIRST CERTIFIED PASSIVE HOUSE IN USA59


FIRST CERTIFIED PASSIVE HOUSE IN DENMARK60


Net Zero Homes

61 Net Zero home - Ft. Worth, Texas


Net Zero Homes

62 Net Zero “Beach House” - California


Net Zero Homes

63 Net Zero - Chicago


Net Zero Homes

64 Net Zero – Staplehurst, England


Net Zero Homes

65

“Cannon Beach Residence” Oregon coast


Net Zero Homes• LEED Platinum• Currently holds highest rating for a Net Zero residence in the US• Produces 40% more energy than it consumes

66Yannell Residence, Illinois

ENME 701Sustainable Energy & Environment, Radermacher, Fall 2015Belgian NZE station at Antartica67


Key Concepts• Envelope (minimize load)• Thermal Mass (heat storage)• Ventilation (no infiltration)

– Must be done correctly– Generous air flow– Heat recovery ventilation– No leaks

68


LEED Certification• Statistics as of 15 April 2010:

– 4703 certifications in US– 19,312 registrations worldwide

Certification Level # per Certification Level

Certified 1417Bronze 3Silver 1747Gold 1931

Platinum 287

69

Data source: USGBC


LEED Home, Platinum Certified

70


LEED Statistics – Top Ten Registered or Certified• Commercial: 12,290• Retail: 4,398• Higher Ed: 3,000+/-• Multi-unit residential: 2,775• Campus: 2,406• Military Base: 2,115• Restaurant: 2,069• Industrial: 1,660• Community Development: 1,607• K-12 Education: 1,600

71


LEED Statistics – Registered or Certified Projects: Top Ten Countries• Arab Emirate: 656 • China: 261• Canada: 228• Brazil: 134• Mexico: 111

• Germany: 99• South Korea: 93• India: 76• Saudi Arabia: 65• Italy: 64

72


Building America• Ultimate Target is on-site MicroCHP supplying 100% demands (Zero Energy).


Analyzing the Least-Cost Path

Reduced consumption by increasing building efficiency Additional options until cost of saving energy equals cost of onsite power produced or that of additional savings options

No changes in design, savings result from additional onsite power capacity

PV systems used for on-site power generation

BEopt™ Software for Building Energy Optimization: Features and Capabilities, C. Christensen and R. Anderson, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, S. Horowitz, A. Courtney, and J. Spencer, University of Colorado, Boulder, Technical Report, NREL/TP-550-39929, August 200674


Markets low energy houses – Markets KfW40 and KfW60 houses Germany

Primary energy (SH, DHW) < 40 (60) kWh/(m2a)45% (30%) lower transmission losses than legal requirement

75


• New Law : January 2009, all new homes renewable energy heating systems, 14 % of demand• 350 million euros [US $517 million] annually for solar panels, wood pellet stoves and boilers and heat pumps.• "The heating sector is the sleeping giant of renewable energy," Thomas Hagbeck of the German Federal Environmental Agency• Renewable energy for electricity up 300% in the last ten years• Renewable energy for heating up only 40% over the same period.

http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/story?id=50746

Germany

76


Definitions

77

Europe: Low Energy House: Heating Demand <40kWh/m2/yrAir tight

USNet Zero Energy House: Uses only renewable energy on annual average

For Purpose of Workshop:Passive House

USLEEDS Certified House: Fulfills wide range of environmental requirem.

Europe: Passive House: Heating Demand <15kWh/m2/yrAir tight


Technology Trend: Highest Possible Energy EfficiencyHierarchy of Energy Supply Technologies• Near Term: Fossil fuel based power plant

– Highest possible efficiency central power plant– Waste heat for heating and cooling– Electric, low temperature lift heat pumps

• Long Term: renewable energy – Most renewable energy is available as electricity– Electric, low temperature lift heat pumps

78


Friendsville Questions• Laws Public Service Commission• Government Subsidies• Community detaisl

79

012_20160726_Sustainable energy production and utilization

Education

Transcript of 012_20160726_Sustainable energy production and utilization