01 In Trot Oho Resource NEW

8/4/2019 01 In Trot Oho Resource NEW

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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Introduction toIntroduction to

Heavy Oil in the World and in CanadaHeavy Oil in the World and in Canada

Maurice B. Dusseault


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

The Oil Source of the FutureThe Oil Source of the Future

Heavy and viscous oils maybecome the major world oilsource by 2060

New technologies fromCanada have led the way inhelping access thischallenging resource SAGD IGI CHOPS HCS PPT And, others are emerging


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

API DefinitionsAPI Definitions

50

20

45

40

30

10

0

API

0,780

0,802

0,825

0,876

0,934

1,000

1,076

Densityg/cm

Condensate

Lightoil

Heavyoil

Extraheavyoil(10000 mPa.s)

ConventionalOil

Non-c

on-

ventional

Oi

l

API: American Petroleum InstituteAPI: American Petroleum Institute

API is a measure of the oil density!

~11.3API

API gravity = (141.5/SG at 60F) - 131.5Different countries, organizationsuse different HO definitions


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

The Last 40 YearsThe Last 40 Years

WorldOil

Consumption

-Mb/day


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Future ofFuture ofConventionalConventional OilOil

1998 predictions:Demand +1.5-2%/yr

Convl oil production

peaks in ~2008-12 (?)Middle East >40%,

50% by ~2020

Cheap oil era mayhave now ended

Heavy oil value

Q- Bb/yr

20

31 Bb/yr

Conventional Oil Prediction in RedTotal Need Prediction in Blue Dots

2008

1978

Campbell and Laherrre

March Sci Am, 1998, p78


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

What is the Energy Issue?What is the Energy Issue?

People are consuming more energy Countries want to develop (China, India),

increasing energy demand significantly

Developed countries are slowly consumingmore and more energy, but Energy intensity is decreasing (good!)

Population growth is stabilizing (good!) Traditional pollution is abating (good!)

This leaves CO2 as the remaining challenge,

but a very important one!


7/71The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Scena

riosto2050-ShellInter

national(2001)

Changes in Energy SourcesChanges in Energy Sources

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

Fuel Cell

Hydrogen?

DirectElectricity

Solar?

Direct Wood, Wind, Water, Animals

Steam Engine - Coal (1830 - 1900)

Electric Dynamo - Coal (1900 -1940)

Internal Combustion Engine

Oil - (1910 1970)

Nuclear (1960 - 1990)

CCGT Natural Gas (1990 - ?)

Is a nuclear energy future the most likely?


8/71The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Energy Utilization EfficiencyEnergy Utilization Efficiency

Unit Energy Input per $ ofGross National Product

1970 2000 2030

1.0

0.5

All countriesare followingsimilar trends

2008

Clearly, we are using energy much more efficiently on a GDP basis.For oil, it is even better (down to 0.43-0.44 compared with 1970)


9/71The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

World Population GrowthWorld Population Growth

World Population- billions

1950 2000 2050

10

56 billion

~9 billion

x

Peak in about 2050 (?)

July 2010 ~6.86 109


10/71The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Selected Countries Oil IntensitySelected Countries Oil Intensity

kg oil perreal $ GDP)

Source www.iea.org
http://www.iea.org/http://www.iea.org/


11/71The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

2009 Consumers - ~85.2 MMb/d2009 Consumers - ~85.2 MMb/d

Rank Country 2009 Oil Consumption

1 United States 20.7 million barrels/day

2 China 7.9 MMb/d

3 Japan 5.0 MMb/d

4 India 2.7 MMb/d

5 Russian Federation 2.7 MMb/d

6 Germany 2.5 MMb/d

7 Brazil 2.4 MMb/d

8 Canada 2.4 MMb/d

9 South Korea 2.3 MMb/d

10 Mexico 2.1 MMb/d

11 France 2.0 MMb/d

12 United Kingdom 1.8 MMb/d

http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/oil_consumption_2009_1.html modified!
http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/oil_consumption_2009_1.htmlhttp://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/oil_consumption_2009_1.htmlhttp://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/oil_consumption_2009_1.html


12/71The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Example of Energy ConsumptionExample of Energy Consumption


13/71The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Lets Look at the USLets Look at the US

US is the largest energy consumer US consumes ~25% of world oil, 2nd largest

per capita (Canada is #1 per capita)

US is the dominant economic force (30% ofworld GDP)

US population is increasing, but Europes is

now declining slowly US GDP growth rate is less than developing

countries ~3.2% vs. ~7-10% for India, China


14/71The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Per Capita Energy use - USAPer Capita Energy use - USA

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_2.pdf For the USASource: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2010

Increasing efficiency
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_2.pdfhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_2.pdfhttp://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/pdf/trend_2.pdf


15/71The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2010 For the USA


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HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Comparison to WorldComparison to World

BP Report June 2009

COAL HYDRO NUCLEAR

NATURAL GAS

OIL


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008 For the USA


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

For the USASource: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2008


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Comments on USA ProjectionsComments on USA Projections

A roughly stable situation predicted for oil:Despite population growth & GDP growth

The future role of nuclear power is likely

underestimatedNuclear is a carbon-free energy source

Technology in 2010 is far more advanced than in

1979, 1986 (less risk, higher efficiency)

Geological waste disposal has proven feasible

Coal growth predictions seem high

So, predictions are fine, but they change

com are to EIA redictions made in 2000


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

US Imports (Crude + Products)US Imports (Crude + Products)

COUNTRY

MMBOD

%

Canada 2.5 17.7Mexico 1.4 11.2

Saudi 1.1 10.8Venezuela

1.1 9.9

Nigeria 1.0 8.3Algeria 0.67 4.9Angola 0.51 3.7Iraq 0.49 3.6Rest 4.10 29.9

13.7 100.1US consumes: ~20.6 MMBOD

US imports: ~13.7 MMBOD (crude + all product

2010


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The

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MBDCI

Sources of US Imports - 2010Sources of US Imports - 2010

CANADA

MEXICO

VENEZUELA

SAUDI

ARABIA

NIGERIA

ANGOLA

ALGERIA

RUSSIA

IRAQ

BRASILCOLOMBIA

BDCI


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

China 1990-2010China 1990-2010

2010: ~4 MMbod imports, ~3.8 MMbod production

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Future of Conventional OilFuture of Conventional Oil

1998 predictions:Demand +1.5-2%/yr

World production

peaks in ~2010 (?)Middle East @30%,

50% by ~2015 (?)

Cheap oil era mayhave ended

Viscous oil value

9% of world prod.

Q- Bb/yr

20

~31 Bb/yr

Conventional Oil Prediction in RedTotal Need Prediction in Blue Dots

2008

1978

Modified; red line from Campbell andLaherrre March Sci Am, 1998, p78

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Hubbert Curves PredictionsHubbert Curves Predictions

Time

Production

Effect of increasedprice and new

technologies

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Predictions in 1990 (Chevron)Predictions in 1990 (Chevron)

0102030405060

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100MioBesPDa

Reserves

TotalConsumption

Ex. Heavy& Bitumen

EOR

ShaleOilUndiscovered

Conventional

Chevrons predictions in 1990 (all predictions are necessarily wrong)

A typical prediction from 1987 data

7080

ACTUAL in 2010

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

http://www.delphi.ca/apec/

What Are Our Options?What Are Our Options?

We will first make up the difference byconservation + heavy oil and oil sands

High price also affect demand (as in 2008-09)

We can make oil from natural gas; trouble is,natural gas is a valuable fuel too! Also, $

We can convert wood, plants, coal

We can go to a H2 or an ethanol economy ($) Carbon issues will impact our future

technologies (carbon taxes, sequestration)

MBDCI
http://www.delphi.ca/apec/http://www.delphi.ca/apec/


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Critique of PredictionsCritique of Predictions

The future role of heavy oil has beenunderestimated: this is beginning to change The emergence of new technologies in the

last 20 years is not fully accounted forReserves will soon rise by >550 BB (heavy oil)

e.g. USGS (2010) said 513 Bb for Venezuela Total reserves will rise by another 1000 BB

Technology affects conventional oil as well Nuclear is being slowly reborn Predictions based on history are useful, but

to be used with some caution

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

World and OPEC ProductionWorld and OPEC Production

OPEC

World (total)

EIA Web Site

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResource

MBDCI

Sources of Conventional OilSources of Conventional Oil

Russia, Saudi Arabia, and USA are thebiggest producers

The Middle East dominates the conventional

oil export market, and will continue for theforeseeable future (25 years or more)

EIA predictions for the future have been

unrealistically high

Total believes peak of ~95 MMb/y in 2020

(Note that this does not necessarily mean a

total oil production peak!)

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

MBDCI

BP 2009 Proven reservesBP 2009 Proven reserves

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

MBD

BP 2009 Proven reservesBP 2009 Proven reserves

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Proved oil reserves at end 2005Proved oil reserves at end 2005

www.bp.com

North America59.5

CanadianVISCOUS

OIL

>320 BbAERCB

South andCentral America103.5

VenezuelanVISCOUS OIL

>500 Bb(USGS)

A better view!

MBDCI
http://www.bp.com/http://www.bp.com/


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Oil: Who Produces it?Oil: Who Produces it?

Saudi 10.8 MMb/d Russia 9.8 USA 8.5 Iran 4.2 China 4.0 Canada (2008) 3.4 (rising) Mexico (2008) 3.2 (dropping) UAE 3.0 Kuwait 2.7 Venezuela2.6 Norway 2.5 Brazil 2.4

Canada is now 6th

However, growth in

heavy oil and oil sands

continues (Canada: ~5

MMb/d by 2020) Where will other

growth come from?

Conventional is flat

I believe that growth

will mainly come from

technology oil: i.e.

heavy oil, oil sands2008 EIA datahttp://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Future ofFuture ofConventionalConventional OilOil

2010-2012?

2030

probable

oil future

optimistsprediction for

conventional oil

conventionalprediction

Time

Oil production, alltypes (C, H, XH)

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

The Limits to HydrocarbonsThe Limits to Hydrocarbons

Conventional oil ~ 2% of natural HCs Heavy oil ~ 4-5% of total HCs

Natural gas ~ 5-8% of HCs

Coal + shale oil ~ >50% of non-gas HCs Methane hydrates may comprise 10-25%!

We can synthesize oil from coal, wood, etc.

We can make oil from elements (C + H)!

e.g.: H2 from electrolysis (solar power)

C from various sources, then combine the two!

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Example: Ethanol CExample: Ethanol C22HH55OHOH

Density of ethanol: 0.789 Density of gasoline: 0.737

Energy density of ethanol: ~25 MJ/kg

Energy density of gasoline: ~45 MJ/kg In the tank of your car:

ETHANOL gives 19.7 MJ/litre

GASOLINE gives 33.2 MJ/litre Pollution? About the same

Gasoline: fossil fuel; Ethanol: plants

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

How Much is There??How Much is There??

World viscous oil reserves are about 2.2-2.3 times as

large as the conventional ( < 100 cP) reserves. > 75%

of these reserves are in sandstones

World Oil Resources (not necessarily reserves)

0

100

200

300

400

Conventional< 100 c PHeavy Oil100-10000 cPBitumen> 10 , 000 cP

D. W igh tman (1997 )

Bom3

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

World Oil EndowmentWorld Oil Endowment

Extra Heavyand Bitumen55%

Conventional Oil30%Heavy Oil15%

Probably the total endowment is ~14 trillion barrelsVenezuela, Russia & Canada together have ~40% of this

Oil shalesnot included

Saudi Arabia claims ~40 billion m3 (#1 in 2009)With New Heavy Oil Technologies, Canada has >35billion m3 of reserves (#2 now, #1 in the future?)Venezuela and Russia will go up in rank soon

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Oil SandsOil Sands

Oil sand slopesin Canada

Core from Venezuela

Weathered surface looks almost white

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Will Oil Run Out?Will Oil Run Out?

Natural cheap conventional oil must run out But, oil from heavy oil deposits, shale, coal

conversion depends on $ + technology

At $45/BBL, much heavy oil is profitableAt $80/BBL, oil from coal (SASOL), gas?

At $90/BBL, major shale oil projects?

At $120/BBL, wood conversion is possible!At some price, gasoline from chemistry (C+H)

Oil is thus infinite, depending on price

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

World Reserves:World Reserves: Todays ViewTodays View

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

billionbarrels

SaudiA

rabi

a

Cana

da Iraq

Vene

zuela

Russia

Mexico

These are in a sense sanctioned recoverable reservesSources: Oil and Gas Journal Dec 2002, AEUB

Alberta

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Reserves Data Summary 2008Reserves Data Summary 2008

Country Reserves Production Reserve life

109 bbl 109 m3 106 bbl/d 103 m3/d years

Saudi Arabia 267 42.4 10.2 1,620 72

Canada 179 28.5 3.3 520 149

Iran 138 21.9 4.0 640 95

Iraq 115 18.3 2.1 330 150

Kuwait 104 16.5 2.6 410 110

Venezuela 99 15.7 2.7 430 88

United Arab Emirates 98 15.6 2.9 460 93

Russia 60 9.5 9.9 1,570 17

Libya 41 6.5 1.7 270 66

Nigeria 36 5.7 2.4 380 41

Kazakhstan 30 4.8 1.4 220 59

United States 21 3.3 7.5 1,190 8

China 16 2.5 3.9 620 11

These are the currently widely accepted figures

MBDCI
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Saudi_Arabiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Canadahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iranhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iraqhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Kuwaithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuelahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_the_United_Arab_Emirateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Russiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Libyahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Nigeriahttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Oil_Reserves_in_the_Kazakhstan&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_the_United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Oil_Reserves_in_China&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Oil_Reserves_in_China&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_the_United_Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Oil_Reserves_in_the_Kazakhstan&action=edit&redlink=1http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Nigeriahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Libyahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Russiahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_the_United_Arab_Emirateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Venezuelahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Kuwaithttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iraqhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iranhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Canadahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Reserves_in_Saudi_Arabia


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Albertas View of Oil ReservesAlbertas View of Oil Reserves

EIA financial institutions

- Based on a less rigid view of recoverablereserves and technology potential

Billionsofbarrels

recoverableres

erves

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

Source EIA + AEUBCan

ada

Sau

diA.

Can

ada

SEC

Iran

Venez

uela

Russia

USA

Mexico

~2003data

MBDCI


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Canadas Viscous OilCanadas Viscous Oil

This is a conservative estimate

MBDCI


45/71

The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Alberta ReservesAlberta Reserves

Athabasca 237.1 Bb

These are considered technicallyrecoverable reserves

MBDCI


46/71

The

HeavyOilResourc

e

World Reserves: Tomorrows ViewWorld Reserves: Tomorrows View

0

50

100

150

200

250

300350

Venezuela Canada Iraqussia US

billion

barrels

Highly conservative estimates

S Arabia(US for comparison only)


47/71

MBDCI

There are significant HO & XHO reserves in carbonates in ME 1 Tb,0 5 Tb i C d t


48/71

The

HeavyOilResourc

e

0.5 Tb in Canada, etc.

~2006

1 2

3

4

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/

MBDCI
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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The

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e

Viscous Oil Reserves - USGSViscous Oil Reserves - USGS

These are Ultimate OOIP Values (projected) South America (with Venezuela) 3.1 Tb

(Venezuela alone 1.65 Tb)

Canada 2.0 Tb Russia 2.0 Tb

Middle East 1.0 Tb

United States (with Alaska) 0.8 Tb Rest of World 0.6 Tb

These figures do not reflect reservoir quality. Venezuela likely

has the largest technically recoverable reserves ~0.5 Tb

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/

MBDCI
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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The

HeavyOilResourc

e

Viscous Oil in the WorldViscous Oil in the World

Suchnumbers areapproximateonly, butViscous Oilamountgreatly

exceedsConventionalOil amount

~2.2 the amount of Conventional Oil

MBDCI
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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TheHeavyOilResourc

e

Heavy Oil - Global ViewHeavy Oil - Global View

Mexico

Canada

Argentina

Venezuela

Trinidad

Angola

China

India

SaudiArabia

Netherlands

UK

Egypt

Indonesia

Jordan

E. Europe

Oman

MadagascarAustralia

Brazil

Russia

EcuadorColombiaPeru

Kuwait

TurkeyItaly

Nigeria

Egypt

USALower

48

~1 billion

~10 billion

~100 billion

>1 trillion

Barrels OOIP

Source: JPT, IEA ,Schlumberger OFS Marketing

Alaska

Offshorechallenge

Coldproduction

Offshorechallenge

Offshorechallenge

Steamflood

Steamflood

Arcticconditions

Cradle of new technologies:Mining, SAGD, VAPEX, THAI

SAGD

MBDCI

V H Oil D i
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Vast Heavy Oil DepositsVast Heavy Oil Deposits

Source: Head Jones &Larter 2003, Nature

MBDCI

h i fWh i L f ?
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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What is Left?What is Left?

~13.5-14.5 Tb of liquid HC (not countinggas, shale oil, methane hydrates) ~4.6 Tb conventional, ~9.7 Tb heavy (


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Optimists vs. PessimistsOptimists vs. Pessimists

Optimists use USGS data (but history hasshown that these data are pretty good!)

Pessimists fail to account for the new

emerging technologies that will help slow

down the decline rate

However, the conventional oil production

peak may be imminent (2009-2012?)

Demand will have to be met by higher prices

and heavy oil

Lets study some data

MBDCI

Vi Oil P d i 2010Vi Oil P d i 2010
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Viscous Oil Production - 2010Viscous Oil Production - 2010

Alaska

Canada

USA

Mexico

Trinidad

Venezuela

Brazil

Argentina

UKNetherlands

Eastern EuropeItaly Turkey

Egypt SaudiArabia

India

China

Russia

Indonesia

Australia

Kuwait

Oman

Madagascar

Nigeria

Angola

Iran

Syria

Ecuador

Columbia

Peru

Kazakhstan

Libya

Iraq

Mining/SAGD/VAPEX/THAITM

Cold Production

SAGD

Cyclic Steam Stimulation

Others/not enoughinformation

CHOPS

SF/SD

SD/SF/SAGD/CSS/CHOPS

Legend

~1.8 MMb/d

~0.35 MMb/d

~0.4 MMb/d

~1.0 MMb/d

~0.25 MMb/d

~0.3 MMb/d

~0.35 MMb/d

Courtesy Satinder Chopra

2009 data

~0.25 MMb/d

~0.25 MMb/d

Iran

MBDCI

Oil i NOT Lik G ld!Oil i NOT Lik G ld!
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Oil is NOT Like Gold!Oil is NOT Like Gold!

Fixed gold amount in

the earths crust

Richest mines are

always exploited first

Cant create gold Gold is stored as well

as used (i.e. a buffer

against high prices)

Gold cannot be

destroyed (in principle,

always recyclable)

Only fossil HC is a

fixed quantity

Politics often dictate

differently (e.g. USA)

Oil can be created With minor exceptions

all produced oil is

consumed, no storage

Oil is destroyed when

used, and cannot be

recovered in any way

MBDCI

USA R fi F d k E l iUSA R fi F d t k E l ti
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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USA Refinery Feedstock EvolutionUSA Refinery Feedstock Evolution

30

31

32

33

84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

%S

ulfur

APIGrav

ity

API gravity Sulfur

Feedstocks are getting heavier

MBDCI

Wh F C d ?Wh F C d ?
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Why Focus on Canada?Why Focus on Canada?

Huge heavy oil reserves

The recent new technologies have been

largely developed in Canada

Conventional oil is depleting in a highlyexplored, mature basin

Canada is the first country to go through:

A peak in oil (conventional) productionA trough in production

Now, the old peak exceeded by new heavy oil

MBDCI

W t C di Oil MiW t C di Oil Mi
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Western Canadian Oil MixWestern Canadian Oil Mix

MBDCI

Alb t P di ti i 2009Alb t P di ti i 2009
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Alberta Predictions in 2009Alberta Predictions in 2009

All bitumen

MBDCI

2009 Bit P d ti F t2009 Bit P d ti F t
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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2009 Bitumen Production Forecast2009 Bitumen Production Forecast

MBDCI

Alb t All Li id P d tAlb t All Li id P d t


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Alberta, All Liquid ProductsAlberta, All Liquid Products

MBDCI

Bit 2009Bit men 2009


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TheHeavyOilResource

In situMined H

eavy

OilBe

lt

Oilsandsregion

Bitumen - 2009Bitumen - 2009

SAGD production

is increasing fast!

These figures do

not include heavy

oil south of line

Some Cold Lake

region production

is from CHOPS +heavy oil from

Saskatchewan Alberta ERCB,2010 report

MBDCI

Oil S d OPEXOil Sands OPEX
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Oil Sands OPEXOil Sands OPEX

MBDCI

2000 2010 Oil Prices (Canada)2000 2010 Oil Prices (Canada)


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2000-2010 Oil Prices (Canada)2000-2010 Oil Prices (Canada)

MBDCI

Viscous and Conventional OilsViscous and Conventional Oils


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Viscous and Conventional OilsViscous and Conventional Oils

Profit margin

Royalties andtaxes

Upgrading &transportation

OPEX

CAPEX

Exploration

100% 100%

Conventionalpetroleum

Heavy, XHpetroleum

This chart is notintended to reflect aspecific case. It is ageneralized statementof the cost driversdifferences between

viscous andconventional oils

MBDCI

Light/Heavy Differential PriceLight/Heavy Differential Price
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Light/Heavy Differential PriceLight/Heavy Differential Price

Source: NEB Website

http://www.neb.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/prcng/crdlndptrlmprdcts/cndnmrkt-eng.html

Light oil price

Heavy oil price

MBDCI

Production TechnologiesProduction Technologies
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Production TechnologiesProduction Technologies

Edmonton

Calgary

Saskatoon

Regina

Alberta Saskatchewan

Lloydminster

Peace Riveroilsands

Athabascaoilsands

Wabiskawdeposits

Cold Lake oilsands

HeavyOil Belt

SAGD

Mining

HCS,CHOPS

CSS, HCS

CHOPS

SAGDCHOPS

CP

MBDCI

Opening New Markets for BitumenOpening New Markets for Bitumen
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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Opening New Markets for BitumenOpening New Markets for Bitumen

MBDCI

Husky Energy

Lloydminster


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Lloydminster

Upgrader

~80,000 b/d (2006),

being expanded

(2007)

Upgrading HO is an important

issue affecting production

MBDCI

ConclusionsConclusions
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/


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eavyOilResource

ConclusionsConclusions

Conventional oil will soon peak Good for heavy oil, IOR, profits

Remarkable technology advances recently

We must try to consolidate & perfect them

The future for viscous oil looks genuinely

promising at present If we dont develop viscous oils now, we

may never H2 cycle, replacement, CO2
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/

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